Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
NIO options intelligence
Nio Inc Class A ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
38
Market data through 11 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 11:41 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
NIO currently carries bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
3.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.47
Call-side skew
Trend fit
27
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.9%
RS -25.2
Expected move
3.8%
Put-call volume
0.47
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.57
Max pain
5.00
Underlying
4.74
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
426
Research Brief
NIO has a bullish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.56–4.92; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.50. The most active strike by current volume is 4.50.
Priced range4.56–4.92
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration4.50
Max pain reference5.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 4.56 to 4.92. Max pain at 5.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
4.564.74 ± 0.184.92
Confirmation level
A close beyond 4.92 or below 4.56 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 38/100
Pressure is 39/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure39 × 42%
+16.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement27 × 26%
+7.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility55 × 10%
+5.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.50. The most active strike by current volume is 4.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5
1.00-78.9%
221
7
1.50-68.4%
231
17
2.00-57.8%
46
0
2.50-47.3%
34
4
3.00-36.7%
7
78
3.50-26.2%
6
1387
4.00-15.6%
61
4280
4.50-5.1%
1155
2537
5.005.5%
11434
277
5.5016.0%
6860
121
6.0026.6%
3024
6
6.5037.1%
353
22
7.0047.7%
211
0
8.0068.8%
2
106
8.5079.3%
0
3
9.0089.9%
1
1
9.50100.4%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1.3MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak7.00+$815,178
Negative peak4.00-$470,386
Nearest balance4.63Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
0.50-89.5%
-$9
1.00-78.9%
-$283
1.50-68.4%
-$21,774
2.00-57.8%
-$161,326
2.50-47.3%
-$110,182
3.00-36.7%
-$171,277
3.50-26.2%
-$102,576
4.00-15.6%
-$470,386
4.50-5.1%
-$254,716
5.005.5%
+$759,863
5.5016.0%
+$110,073
6.0026.6%
+$273,892
6.5037.1%
+$7,714
7.0047.7%
+$815,178
7.5058.2%
+$2,441
8.0068.8%
+$83,725
8.5079.3%
-$192
9.0089.9%
+$47,315
9.50100.4%
-$2
10.00111.0%
+$225,026
11.00132.1%
+$5,612
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.57
14 Aug
3d
0.48
21 Aug
10d
0.46
28 Aug
17d
0.53
4 Sep
24d
0.51
11 Sep
31d
0.56
18 Sep
38d
0.53
25 Sep
45d
0.65
20 Nov
101d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
4
5
5
6
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 5 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 20% of the time.
Directional follow-through20%
Moves contained by pricing83%
Average expiry move3.8%
6 Aug
Volatility · 46
-2.9% through expiry
8.4% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 43
-2.9% through expiry
7.4% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bullish · 41
-2.9% through expiry
5.6% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 48
-2.9% through expiry
6.0% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 39
-2.9% through expiry
6.4% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 44
8.7% through expiry
7.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 426 / 426
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.2M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+39
1W price-2.9%
Call premium70%
Put premium30%
Notional split
C 70% / P 30%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
27/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
1 Sep
Matched earnings event is 19 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 3416 contracts traded, $484,618 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$484,618
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 12130 contracts traded, $474,766 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$474,766
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 1170 contracts traded, $247,854 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$247,854
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 2362 contracts traded, $233,682 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$233,682
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 2953 contracts traded, $217,004 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$217,004
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 10 completed sessions
Volume rank70th
Volume/OI rank70th
IV rank30th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close4.74
1W-2.9%
RS-25.2
Fair value-14.1%
Options pressure39
Speculation41
Volatility55
Trend fit27
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 6.8% · 10 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.86 · 10 sessions
30th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.41 · 10 sessions
70th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.02 · 10 sessions
70th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:23
Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 6.1%
30 Jul 10:20
Volatility
Pressure 77
Move 6.6%
31 Jul 12:08
Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 7.3%
2 Aug 11:29
Bullish
Pressure 34
Move 6.4%
4 Aug 05:32
Bullish
Pressure 78
Move 6.0%
5 Aug 10:10
Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 5.6%
5 Aug 20:15
Bullish
Pressure 53
Move 7.5%
6 Aug 12:43
Bullish
Pressure 60
Move 7.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 259 · OI 221
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike1.50
Calls · V 239 · OI 231
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike2.00
Calls · V 36 · OI 46
Puts · V 1 · OI 17
Strike2.50
Calls · V 16 · OI 34
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike3.50
Calls · V 11 · OI 6
Puts · V 1 · OI 78
Strike4.00
Calls · V 19 · OI 61
Puts · V 262 · OI 1387
Strike4.50
Calls · V 2368 · OI 1155
Puts · V 3875 · OI 4280
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.57
Put-call1.10
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.80
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.66
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.49
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.51
Put-call1.31
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.09
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.47
Skew-0.04
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.50
Skew0.01
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.49
Skew-0.09
11 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNIO260918C00006000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike6.00
Volume5003
OI30057
IV0.66
ContractNIO260814P00004500
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike4.50
Volume3875
OI4280
IV0.53
ContractNIO260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume3690
OI53859
IV0.51
ContractNIO260814C00004500
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike4.50
Volume2368
OI1155
IV0.45
ContractNIO270319C00007000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike7.00
Volume2036
OI7677
IV0.64
ContractNIO260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume2012
OI7122
IV0.57
ContractNIO270319P00003000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike3.00
Volume2002
OI93
IV0.65
ContractNIO260911P00004500
SidePut
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Strike4.50
Volume1709
OI1429
IV0.53
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.