Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
TLRY options intelligence
Tilray Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
55
Market data through 11 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 12:10 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
TLRY currently carries volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
7.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.11
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+0.7%
RS -54.1
Expected move
7.7%
Put-call volume
0.11
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.99
Max pain
4.50
Underlying
4.57
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
412
Research Brief
TLRY has a volatility chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.22–4.92; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.
Priced range4.22–4.92
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration4.50
Max pain reference4.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 4.22 to 4.92. Max pain at 4.50 sits inside that range, 1.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
4.224.57 ± 0.354.92
Confirmation level
A close beyond 4.92 or below 4.22 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 55/100
Pressure is 88/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure88 × 42%
+37.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility87 × 10%
+8.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 4.50. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
10
0.50-89.1%
10
2
1.00-78.1%
32
0
1.50-67.2%
2
0
2.00-56.2%
5
2
2.50-45.3%
2
18
3.00-34.4%
2
912
3.50-23.4%
97
551
4.00-12.5%
885
972
4.50-1.5%
1591
184
5.009.4%
2001
29
5.5020.4%
1942
3
6.0031.3%
378
4
6.5042.2%
338
2
7.0053.2%
217
2
7.5064.1%
206
1
8.0075.1%
211
1
8.5086.0%
210
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$292,528Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak5.00+$130,160
Negative peak4.00-$11,719
Nearest balance4.18Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
0.50-89.1%
+$3
1.00-78.1%
-$2
1.50-67.2%
+$4
2.00-56.2%
+$364
2.50-45.3%
+$27
3.00-34.4%
-$1,045
3.50-23.4%
-$2,495
4.00-12.5%
-$11,719
4.50-1.5%
+$20,788
5.009.4%
+$130,160
5.5020.4%
+$17,898
6.0031.3%
+$42,698
6.5042.2%
+$1,441
7.0053.2%
+$22,896
7.5064.1%
+$467
8.0075.1%
+$16,782
8.5086.0%
+$62
9.0096.9%
+$5,518
10.00118.8%
+$15,285
11.00140.7%
+$2,676
12.00162.6%
+$3,465
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.99
14 Aug
3d
0.76
21 Aug
10d
0.95
28 Aug
17d
0.86
4 Sep
24d
0.37
11 Sep
31d
0.69
18 Sep
38d
0.88
25 Sep
45d
0.79
18 Dec
129d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
4
5
5
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing83%
Average expiry move3.4%
6 Aug
Volatility · 48
0.7% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Volatility · 48
0.7% through expiry
4.4% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Volatility · 53
0.7% through expiry
6.6% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 45
0.7% through expiry
7.7% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Volatility · 61
0.7% through expiry
8.8% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Volatility · 55
17.0% through expiry
6.2% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 412 / 412
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $317,238 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+88
1W price+0.7%
Call premium94%
Put premium6%
Notional split
C 94% / P 6%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 341 contracts traded, $75,866 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$75,866
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2848 contracts traded, $63,676 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$63,676
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 852 contracts traded, $46,196 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$46,196
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 212 contracts traded, $23,281 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$23,281
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2051 contracts traded, $20,099 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$20,099
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 10 completed sessions
Volume rank50th
Volume/OI rank50th
IV rank30th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close4.57
1W+0.7%
RS-54.1
Fair value-64.7%
Options pressure88
Speculation42
Volatility87
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 6.9% · 10 sessions
70th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.27 · 10 sessions
30th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.22 · 10 sessions
20th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.07 · 10 sessions
50th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:20
Volatility
Pressure 73
Move 12.5%
30 Jul 11:05
Bullish
Pressure 58
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 10:43
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 6.2%
3 Aug 10:00
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 8.8%
3 Aug 20:38
Volatility
Pressure 67
Move 7.7%
4 Aug 00:43
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 7.7%
5 Aug 13:05
Volatility
Pressure 84
Move 6.6%
5 Aug 18:32
Volatility
Pressure 75
Move 5.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike0.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike1.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 32
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike1.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 18
Strike3.50
Calls · V 4 · OI 97
Puts · V 0 · OI 912
Strike4.00
Calls · V 78 · OI 885
Puts · V 89 · OI 551
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.99
Put-call0.10
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.76
Put-call0.15
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.95
Put-call0.27
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.86
Put-call0.02
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.21
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.81
Skew-
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.74
Skew-
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV2.57
Put IV1.61
Skew-0.97
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.05
Put IV0.19
Skew-0.86
11 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.96
Put IV0.17
Skew-0.79
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTLRY260814C00005000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume1795
OI2001
IV0.81
ContractTLRY260918C00005000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike5.00
Volume1762
OI5917
IV0.64
ContractTLRY260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume1147
OI2761
IV0.72
ContractTLRY260814C00004500
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike4.50
Volume627
OI1591
IV0.62
ContractTLRY260828C00006000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike6.00
Volume442
OI390
IV0.80
ContractTLRY260814C00005500
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike5.50
Volume362
OI1942
IV0.96
ContractTLRY260918C00008000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike8.00
Volume271
OI6349
IV1.09
ContractTLRY260821C00004500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike4.50
Volume265
OI926
IV0.68
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.