Ticker Options Intelligence

AXS options intelligence

AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 26 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 17 Sep 2026 11:06 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

AXS currently carries bullish options pressure with a 26/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 3.7%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.70

Call-side skew

Trend fit 33

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +1.0%

RS -9.7

Expected move 3.7%
Put-call volume 0.70
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.32
Max pain 85.00
Underlying 98.24
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 162

Research Brief

AXS has a bullish chain read with 26/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 94.59–101.89; The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 110.00. The most active strike by current volume is 110.00.

Priced range94.59–101.89
Call concentration85.00
Put concentration110.00
Max pain reference85.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 94.59 to 101.89. Max pain at 85.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
94.5998.24 ± 3.65101.89
Confirmation level

A close beyond 101.89 or below 94.59 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 26/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 27/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure27 × 42%
+11.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement33 × 26%
+8.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility38 × 10%
+3.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score25.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 110.00. The most active strike by current volume is 110.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
55.00-44.0%
1
0
60.00-38.9%
11
1
65.00-33.8%
9
0
70.00-28.7%
65
1
75.00-23.7%
6
1
80.00-18.6%
14
1
85.00-13.5%
216
16
90.00-8.4%
9
20
95.00-3.3%
2
51
100.001.8%
112
4
105.006.9%
73
80
110.0012.0%
49
0
115.0017.1%
12
0
120.0022.1%
4
0
125.0027.2%
0
0
130.0032.3%
0
0
140.0042.5%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 82% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$521,085Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak100.00+$511,595
Negative peak95.00-$4,462
Nearest balance95.04Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
55.00-44.0%
-$2
60.00-38.9%
-$3
65.00-33.8%
-$4
70.00-28.7%
+$0
75.00-23.7%
+$270
80.00-18.6%
+$388
85.00-13.5%
+$2,912
90.00-8.4%
-$541
95.00-3.3%
-$4,462
100.001.8%
+$511,595
105.006.9%
+$6,429
110.0012.0%
+$1,213
115.0017.1%
+$39
120.0022.1%
+$376
125.0027.2%
+$355
130.0032.3%
+$1,491
135.0037.4%
+$1,010
140.0042.5%
+$7
145.0047.6%
+$14
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.26× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.32 18 Sep 2d
0.23 16 Oct 30d
0.27 18 Dec 93d
0.26 19 Mar 184d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

22 matured · 20 directional

Across 20 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 50% of the time.

Directional follow-through50%
Moves contained by pricing73%
Average expiry move3.3%
16 Sep Bullish · 26 1.0% through expiry 3.7% priced · v2.0
14 Sep Bullish · 43 1.0% through expiry 2.1% priced · v2.0
11 Sep Bullish · 43 -1.9% through expiry 3.8% priced · v2.0
9 Sep Bullish · 37 -1.9% through expiry 4.1% priced · v2.0
4 Sep Bullish · 26 -1.9% through expiry 2.9% priced · v2.0
2 Sep Mixed · 23 -0.3% through expiry 4.4% priced · v2.0
31 Aug Bullish · 44 -0.3% through expiry 4.3% priced · v2.0
28 Aug Bullish · 47 -0.3% through expiry 4.4% priced · v2.0
27 Aug Bullish · 44 0.5% through expiry 5.0% priced · v2.0
24 Aug Bullish · 34 0.5% through expiry 5.0% priced · v2.0
21 Aug Bullish · 55 0.5% through expiry 5.5% priced · v2.0
20 Aug Mixed · 31 -2.4% through expiry 3.1% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
162 / 162
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

65/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $5,982 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 0-7 days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+27
1W price+1.0%
Call premium40%
Put premium60%
Notional split C 40% / P 60% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 33/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2,420 estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$2,420
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1,175 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$1,175
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1,010 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$1,010
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $622 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$622
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $525 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$525

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

61

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 23 completed sessions

Volume rank48th
Volume/OI rank57th
IV rank78th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close99.20
1W+1.0%
RS-9.7
Fair value+16.9%
Options pressure27
Speculation8
Volatility38
Trend fit33

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 3.7% near normal
30d avg 4.1% · 11 sessions 27th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
IV 0.32 near normal
30d avg 0.39 · 11 sessions 55th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.70 elevated
30d avg 0.38 · 11 sessions 82th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 near normal
30d avg 0.11 · 11 sessions 45th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
30 Jul 03:43 Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 5.7%
30 Jul 06:31 Bearish
Pressure -80
Move 13.5%
31 Jul 13:14 Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 14.2%
31 Jul 14:30 Bullish
Pressure 68
Move 5.9%
31 Jul 15:36 Bullish
Pressure 68
Move 5.8%
31 Jul 20:52 Bullish
Pressure 68
Move 5.4%
1 Aug 04:18 Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 13.6%
2 Aug 11:58 Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 4.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 9
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 65
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 216
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 9
Puts · V 0 · OI 16

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.32
Put-call1.00
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.27
Put-call0.50
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts46
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.29
Skew0.25
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.34
Skew0.20
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.33
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.28
Skew0.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAXS260918C00110000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike110.00
Volume5
OI49
IV0.55
ContractAXS260918P00105000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike105.00
Volume4
OI4
IV0.82
ContractAXS261218P00100000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike100.00
Volume2
OI7
IV0.27
ContractAXS261218C00100000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike100.00
Volume1
OI116
IV0.25
ContractAXS260918P00100000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume1
OI51
IV0.54
ContractAXS261218C00090000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike90.00
Volume1
OI17
IV0.26
ContractAXS261218C00105000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike105.00
Volume1
OI9
IV0.25
ContractAXS270319C00115000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike115.00
Volume1
OI9
IV0.23

Evidence context