Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
CDNA options intelligence
CareDx Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
65
Market data through 22 Sep 2026
Checked 23 Sep 2026 07:13 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
CDNA currently carries bullish options pressure with a 65/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.21.
Expected move
9.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.21
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.00
Call-side skew
Trend fit
48
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+7.1%
RS 100.7
Expected move
9.7%
Put-call volume
0.00
Volume / OI
0.21
Reference IV
0.34
Max pain
50.00
Underlying
53.83
Nearest expiry
16 Oct 2026
Contracts
136
Research Brief
CDNA has a bullish chain read with 65/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 48.61–59.05; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 60.00.
Priced range48.61–59.05
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference50.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 48.61 to 59.05. Max pain at 50.00 sits inside that range, 7.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
48.6153.83 ± 5.2259.05
Confirmation level
A close beyond 59.05 or below 48.61 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 65/100
Pressure is 87/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure87 × 42%
+36.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation45 × 22%
+9.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement48 × 26%
+12.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility63 × 10%
+6.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 60.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
22.50-58.2%
0
1
25.00-53.6%
0
0
30.00-44.3%
0
0
35.00-35.0%
0
1
40.00-25.7%
0
21
45.00-16.4%
7
33
50.00-7.1%
9
3
55.002.2%
28
2
60.0011.5%
23
0
65.0020.8%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$225,351Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak55.00+$51,366
Negative peak45.00-$319,859
Nearest balance49.58Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
12.50-76.8%
-$1
15.00-72.1%
+$7
17.50-67.5%
+$5
20.00-62.8%
-$3
22.50-58.2%
+$568
25.00-53.6%
+$2
30.00-44.3%
+$352
35.00-35.0%
+$662
40.00-25.7%
+$1,701
45.00-16.4%
-$319,859
50.00-7.1%
+$29,618
55.002.2%
+$51,366
60.0011.5%
+$7,915
65.0020.8%
+$963
70.0030.0%
+$876
75.0039.3%
+$475
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.34
16 Oct
24d
0.56
20 Nov
59d
0.51
19 Feb
150d
0.54
19 Mar
178d
0.53
21 May
241d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
45
50
55
60
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 15 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 80% of the time.
Directional follow-through80%
Moves contained by pricing35%
Average expiry move8.9%
16 Sep
Volatility · 62
7.1% through expiry
10.9% priced · v2.0
14 Sep
Bullish · 54
7.1% through expiry
5.1% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bullish · 49
5.8% through expiry
6.2% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Bullish · 54
5.8% through expiry
5.1% priced · v2.0
3 Sep
Bullish · 48
8.1% through expiry
5.8% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Bullish · 54
8.1% through expiry
7.1% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bullish · 62
8.1% through expiry
8.6% priced · v2.0
21 Aug
Bullish · 58
10.7% through expiry
9.3% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Mixed · 36
7.3% through expiry
6.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Bullish · 39
7.3% through expiry
5.2% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Bullish · 63
4.1% through expiry
6.5% priced · v2.0
11 Aug
Bullish · 63
4.1% through expiry
5.2% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 22 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 136 / 136
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $399,798 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+87
1W price+7.1%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split
C 99% / P 1%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.21
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
48/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1495 contracts traded, $163,075 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$163,075
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 160 contracts traded, $160,800 estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$160,800
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 195 contracts traded, $41,925 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$41,925
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 16 contracts traded, $19,310 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$19,310
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 31 contracts traded, $7,828 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$7,828
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 23 completed sessions
Volume rank96th
Volume/OI rank96th
IV rank17th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close53.83
1W+7.1%
RS100.7
Fair value+178.8%
Options pressure87
Speculation45
Volatility63
Trend fit48
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:11
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 16.4%
30 Jul 10:57
Volatility
Pressure 68
Move 15.1%
30 Jul 15:22
Volatility
Pressure 26
Move 16.4%
30 Jul 19:35
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 14.3%
31 Jul 05:49
Bullish
Pressure 46
Move 15.1%
31 Jul 13:00
Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 19.8%
31 Jul 13:40
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 15.1%
31 Jul 14:19
Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 24.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 21
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 9
Puts · V 2 · OI 33
Strike55.00
Calls · V 31 · OI 28
Puts · V 1 · OI 3
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.00
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.56
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts32
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.01
Expiry21 May 2027
Contracts22
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.21
Skew-0.22
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.60
Skew0.06
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.51
Skew0.07
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.01
21 May 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.55
Skew0.09
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCDNA261016C00060000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike60.00
Volume1215
OI23
IV0.43
ContractCDNA261016C00065000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike65.00
Volume280
OI1
IV0.45
ContractCDNA261120C00065000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike65.00
Volume195
OI9
IV0.54
ContractCDNA270319C00055000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike55.00
Volume160
OI47
IV0.57
ContractCDNA261016C00055000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike55.00
Volume31
OI28
IV0.28
ContractCDNA261120C00050000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike50.00
Volume10
OI93
IV0.56
ContractCDNA261120C00045000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike45.00
Volume4
OI14
IV0.59
ContractCDNA261120C00055000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike55.00
Volume2
OI447
IV0.53
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.