Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CDNA options intelligence
CareDx Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
56
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 12:05 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CDNA currently carries volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 19.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
19.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.22
Call-side skew
Trend fit
74
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-6.5%
RS 79.5
Expected move
19.8%
Put-call volume
0.22
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.78
Max pain
40.00
Underlying
37.14
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
104
Research Brief
CDNA has a volatility chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 29.79–44.49; The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00.
Priced range29.79–44.49
Call concentration40.00
Put concentration40.00
Max pain reference40.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 29.79 to 44.49. Max pain at 40.00 sits inside that range, 7.7% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
29.7937.14 ± 7.3544.49
Confirmation level
A close beyond 44.49 or below 29.79 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 56/100
Pressure is 52/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure52 × 42%
+21.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation24 × 22%
+5.4
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement74 × 26%
+19.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility94 × 10%
+9.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-93.3%
1
2
5.00-86.5%
1
0
7.50-79.8%
1
0
10.00-73.1%
1
0
12.50-66.3%
0
2
15.00-59.6%
2
12
17.50-52.9%
0
5
20.00-46.1%
22
6
22.50-39.4%
27
15
25.00-32.7%
68
6
30.00-19.2%
96
15
35.00-5.8%
41
4004
40.007.7%
354
0
45.0021.2%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.78
21 Aug
22d
0.77
18 Sep
50d
0.68
20 Nov
113d
0.57
19 Feb
204d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
30
35
40
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 104 / 104
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $15604 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+52
1W price-6.5%
Call premium92%
Put premium8%
Notional split
C 92% / P 8%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
74/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 38 contracts traded, $5890 estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$5890
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $5775 estimated gross traded notional, and 37% of visible notional.
$5775
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $1718 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$1718
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $1240 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$1240
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $940 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$940
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close37.14
1W-6.5%
RS79.5
Fair value+115.1%
Options pressure52
Speculation24
Volatility94
Trend fit74
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:11
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 16.4%
30 Jul 10:57
Volatility
Pressure 68
Move 15.1%
30 Jul 15:22
Volatility
Pressure 26
Move 16.4%
30 Jul 19:35
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 14.3%
31 Jul 05:49
Bullish
Pressure 46
Move 15.1%
31 Jul 11:05
Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 19.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 3 · OI 2
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 22
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts28
Avg IV0.78
Put-call0.20
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.77
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.68
Put-call0.50
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.57
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.97
Skew0.36
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.82
Put IV1.23
Skew0.41
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.78
Skew0.08
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.66
Skew0.13
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCDNA260821C00040000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume38
OI354
IV0.61
ContractCDNA260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume11
OI41
IV0.96
ContractCDNA260821P00035000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume5
OI15
IV0.97
ContractCDNA260918C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume4
OI-
IV0.82
ContractCDNA261120C00040000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike40.00
Volume3
OI13
IV0.64
ContractCDNA260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume3
OI2
IV3.06
ContractCDNA261120P00002500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike2.50
Volume3
OI1
IV1.83
ContractCDNA261120C00055000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike55.00
Volume3
OI-
IV0.57
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.