Ticker Options Intelligence

KZIA options intelligence

Kazia Therapeutics Ltd ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 56 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 13 Aug 2026 14:25 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

KZIA currently carries volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 21.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 21.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.09

Call-side skew

Trend fit 22

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +10.0%

RS 30.2

Expected move 21.8%
Put-call volume 0.09
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 1.33
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 13.89
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 80

Research Brief

KZIA has a volatility chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 10.86–16.91; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range10.86–16.91
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 10.86 to 16.91. Max pain at 10.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
10.8613.89 ± 3.0316.91
Confirmation level

A close beyond 16.91 or below 10.86 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 56/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 96/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure96 × 42%
+40.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation2 × 22%
+0.5

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement22 × 26%
+5.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score55.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
51
2.50-82.0%
1
0
5.00-64.0%
0
2
7.50-46.0%
61
235
10.00-28.0%
1299
8
12.50-10.0%
2056
0
15.008.0%
613
0
17.5026.0%
555
6
20.0044.0%
1808
0
22.5062.0%
20
11
25.0080.1%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Reported Greeks · 94% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$98,345Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.50+$39,106
Negative peak2.50-$9
Nearest balance2.91Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-82.0%
-$9
5.00-64.0%
+$44
7.50-46.0%
+$948
10.00-28.0%
+$12,687
12.50-10.0%
+$39,106
15.008.0%
+$24,963
17.5026.0%
+$2,593
20.0044.0%
+$17,836
22.5062.0%
+$36
25.0080.1%
+$141
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.08× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

1.33 21 Aug 9d
1.56 18 Sep 37d
1.35 20 Nov 100d
1.23 19 Feb 191d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

13
15
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
80 / 80
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $6,760 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+96
1W price+10.0%
Call premium97%
Put premium3%
Notional split C 97% / P 3% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 22/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $5,525 estimated gross traded notional, and 82% of visible notional.
$5,525
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $1,020 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$1,020
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $215 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$215

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

37

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 10 completed sessions

Volume rank50th
Volume/OI rank50th
IV rank10th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close13.89
1W+10.0%
RS30.2
Fair value-8.4%
Options pressure96
Speculation2
Volatility96
Trend fit22

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 21.8% muted
30d avg 37.6% · 10 sessions 0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
IV 1.33 muted
30d avg 1.69 · 10 sessions 10th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.09 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 near normal
30d avg 0.07 · 10 sessions 50th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:43 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 35.3%
30 Jul 06:48 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 38.1%
31 Jul 03:29 Volatility
Pressure 8
Move 53.0%
31 Jul 08:03 Volatility
Pressure -88
Move 40.4%
31 Jul 14:01 Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 54.4%
31 Jul 16:03 Volatility
Pressure 62
Move 59.1%
31 Jul 17:15 Volatility
Pressure 62
Move 56.7%
31 Jul 23:46 Volatility
Pressure 62
Move 51.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 51
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 61
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1299
Puts · V 0 · OI 235
Strike12.50
Calls · V 6 · OI 2056
Puts · V 2 · OI 8
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 613
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 555
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1808
Puts · V 0 · OI 6

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV1.33
Put-call0.33
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV1.56
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV1.35
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV1.23
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.42
Put IV1.54
Skew0.12
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.96
Put IV1.71
Skew-0.24
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.25
Put IV1.67
Skew0.42
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.41
Put IV1.28
Skew-0.13

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractKZIA270219C00015000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike15.00
Volume17
OI146
IV1.07
ContractKZIA260821C00012500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume6
OI2056
IV1.96
ContractKZIA260821P00012500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume2
OI8
IV1.54
ContractKZIA260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI1808
IV2.55
ContractKZIA260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI1299
IV2.67
ContractKZIA260918C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1100
IV2.10
ContractKZIA260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI613
IV1.42
ContractKZIA260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI555
IV0.90

Evidence context