Basic Materials ยท Chemicals

OLN relative to DOW

Olin Corporation / Dow Inc

OLN is relatively depressed; DOW is relatively extended against their shared history.

OLN chart โ†—DOW chart โ†—More OLN pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 1.65ฯƒHistorical percentile 97
Relationship quality 56/100
Evidence alignment 45/100
Stability 90/10015 centre crossings
Break risk 46/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending0.90ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

DOW / OLN gap 1.65ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, DOW is extended relative to OLN; below zero, DOW is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, DOW is extended relative to OLN; below zero, DOW is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateDOW / OLN gap
29 Sep 2023-0.58ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-0.43ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-0.67ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-0.56ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-0.18ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-0.24ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-0.19ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-0.22ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.29ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-0.18ฯƒ
8 Dec 2023-0.60ฯƒ
15 Dec 2023-0.36ฯƒ
22 Dec 2023-0.36ฯƒ
29 Dec 2023-0.41ฯƒ
5 Jan 2024-0.27ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-0.40ฯƒ
19 Jan 2024-0.41ฯƒ
26 Jan 2024-0.65ฯƒ
2 Feb 2024-0.34ฯƒ
9 Feb 2024-0.25ฯƒ
16 Feb 2024-0.16ฯƒ
23 Feb 2024-0.02ฯƒ
1 Mar 2024-0.23ฯƒ
8 Mar 2024-0.35ฯƒ
15 Mar 2024-0.43ฯƒ
22 Mar 2024-0.16ฯƒ
29 Mar 2024-0.35ฯƒ
5 Apr 2024-0.08ฯƒ
12 Apr 20240.06ฯƒ
19 Apr 20240.00ฯƒ
26 Apr 20240.10ฯƒ
3 May 20240.05ฯƒ
10 May 20240.20ฯƒ
17 May 20240.08ฯƒ
24 May 20240.05ฯƒ
31 May 20240.21ฯƒ
7 Jun 20240.33ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.23ฯƒ
21 Jun 20240.18ฯƒ
28 Jun 20240.26ฯƒ
5 Jul 20240.30ฯƒ
12 Jul 20240.11ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.28ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.55ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.62ฯƒ
9 Aug 20241.02ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.95ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.64ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.86ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.67ฯƒ
13 Sep 20240.40ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.51ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.44ฯƒ
4 Oct 20240.60ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.42ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.37ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.53ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.48ฯƒ
8 Nov 2024-0.42ฯƒ
15 Nov 2024-0.52ฯƒ
22 Nov 2024-0.45ฯƒ
29 Nov 2024-0.52ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-0.78ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-0.43ฯƒ
20 Dec 20240.00ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-0.03ฯƒ
3 Jan 20250.08ฯƒ
10 Jan 20250.13ฯƒ
17 Jan 20250.18ฯƒ
24 Jan 20250.43ฯƒ
31 Jan 20250.58ฯƒ
7 Feb 20250.69ฯƒ
14 Feb 20250.82ฯƒ
21 Feb 20251.17ฯƒ
28 Feb 20251.35ฯƒ
7 Mar 20251.38ฯƒ
14 Mar 20251.21ฯƒ
21 Mar 20250.95ฯƒ
28 Mar 20250.61ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.08ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.06ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-0.15ฯƒ
25 Apr 20250.10ฯƒ
2 May 20250.16ฯƒ
9 May 20250.12ฯƒ
16 May 20250.32ฯƒ
23 May 20250.28ฯƒ
30 May 20250.30ฯƒ
6 Jun 20250.39ฯƒ
13 Jun 20250.66ฯƒ
20 Jun 20250.33ฯƒ
27 Jun 2025-0.22ฯƒ
4 Jul 2025-0.18ฯƒ
11 Jul 20250.15ฯƒ
18 Jul 20250.20ฯƒ
25 Jul 2025-0.93ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-1.39ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-1.83ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-1.69ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-1.56ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-1.78ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-2.21ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-2.26ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-2.30ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-2.45ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-2.55ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-2.93ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-2.72ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-1.81ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-1.28ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-1.49ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-1.45ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-1.63ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-1.32ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-1.47ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-1.57ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-1.34ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-1.47ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-1.30ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-1.19ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-0.69ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.62ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.02ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.18ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.13ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.05ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-0.13ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.97ฯƒ
13 Mar 20261.46ฯƒ
20 Mar 20261.69ฯƒ
27 Mar 20261.46ฯƒ
3 Apr 20261.67ฯƒ
10 Apr 20261.09ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.91ฯƒ
24 Apr 20261.46ฯƒ
1 May 20261.43ฯƒ
8 May 20261.05ฯƒ
15 May 20261.44ฯƒ
22 May 20260.98ฯƒ
29 May 20260.55ฯƒ
5 Jun 20260.91ฯƒ
12 Jun 20260.74ฯƒ
19 Jun 20260.96ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.28ฯƒ
3 Jul 20260.34ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.56ฯƒ
17 Jul 20260.46ฯƒ
24 Jul 20260.20ฯƒ
31 Jul 20261.53ฯƒ
7 Aug 20261.23ฯƒ
14 Aug 20261.56ฯƒ
21 Aug 20262.12ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.96ฯƒ
4 Sep 20261.68ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.62ฯƒ
18 Sep 20261.65ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

DOW 65.41OLN 36.23
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 40.060.080.0100.0120.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateDOWOLN
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202397.5293.94
13 Oct 202396.4596.28
20 Oct 202395.0292.40
27 Oct 202393.3184.27
3 Nov 202396.4589.36
10 Nov 202395.9787.98
17 Nov 2023100.2794.37
24 Nov 2023100.2195.36
1 Dec 2023102.8297.17
8 Dec 2023100.11100.46
15 Dec 2023106.63105.93
22 Dec 2023108.36108.34
29 Dec 2023107.81108.44
5 Jan 2024107.77105.77
12 Jan 2024104.92104.04
19 Jan 2024103.82102.62
26 Jan 2024106.28110.86
2 Feb 2024105.02103.22
9 Feb 2024106.14103.08
16 Feb 2024109.07105.63
23 Feb 2024110.86105.71
1 Mar 2024111.03109.89
8 Mar 2024112.71114.61
15 Mar 2024113.56117.51
22 Mar 2024114.84114.10
29 Mar 2024115.33118.62
5 Apr 2024118.84118.34
12 Apr 2024114.86109.80
19 Apr 2024112.81108.11
26 Apr 2024114.06107.89
3 May 2024113.56108.19
10 May 2024118.28111.98
17 May 2024117.84113.68
24 May 2024115.00110.14
31 May 2024116.13108.84
7 Jun 2024112.30101.37
14 Jun 2024110.87101.17
21 Jun 2024108.8099.33
28 Jun 2024106.9095.46
5 Jul 2024105.2592.57
12 Jul 2024106.6297.51
19 Jul 2024108.6197.41
26 Jul 2024106.5290.28
2 Aug 2024104.8187.00
9 Aug 2024106.1282.70
16 Aug 2024108.6386.61
23 Aug 2024107.8790.43
30 Aug 2024109.3888.85
6 Sep 2024103.4684.61
13 Sep 2024102.3887.40
20 Sep 2024105.5689.72
27 Sep 2024112.4499.63
4 Oct 2024112.9797.62
11 Oct 2024109.7996.46
18 Oct 2024108.4295.62
25 Oct 2024101.4684.29
1 Nov 202499.9783.13
8 Nov 202494.9190.11
15 Nov 202489.9084.61
22 Nov 202492.8087.64
29 Nov 202491.6887.06
6 Dec 202487.0884.37
13 Dec 202484.7376.27
20 Dec 202482.8368.38
27 Dec 202483.0169.03
3 Jan 202581.7166.15
10 Jan 202579.8463.37
17 Jan 202585.1169.03
24 Jan 202585.7966.91
31 Jan 202580.9859.88
7 Feb 202580.0157.69
14 Feb 202580.1956.58
21 Feb 202581.9354.91
28 Feb 202580.4851.90
7 Mar 202579.0950.28
14 Mar 202578.0850.78
21 Mar 202576.3951.50
28 Mar 202572.5650.63
4 Apr 202559.5541.42
11 Apr 202560.0442.10
18 Apr 202559.4543.05
25 Apr 202563.4045.34
2 May 202564.2445.75
9 May 202562.2643.95
16 May 202563.7643.96
23 May 202559.8140.25
30 May 202560.0640.38
6 Jun 202561.8141.52
13 Jun 202564.7442.40
20 Jun 202560.1040.19
27 Jun 202558.4642.50
4 Jul 202561.6245.60
11 Jul 202563.9845.52
18 Jul 202561.3642.40
25 Jul 202555.2344.23
1 Aug 202547.1837.92
8 Aug 202545.9439.36
15 Aug 202550.5844.31
22 Aug 202554.3748.20
29 Aug 202554.0949.65
5 Sep 202553.8053.11
12 Sep 202554.9955.36
19 Sep 202551.5850.68
26 Sep 202550.4250.28
3 Oct 202552.3154.06
10 Oct 202545.3546.75
17 Oct 202548.0749.12
24 Oct 202554.4850.49
31 Oct 202552.3743.44
7 Nov 202548.9540.71
14 Nov 202550.3542.22
21 Nov 202548.7541.51
28 Nov 202553.1444.70
5 Dec 202551.1643.34
12 Dec 202553.4146.98
19 Dec 202551.8343.19
26 Dec 202551.8944.25
2 Jan 202654.0845.65
9 Jan 202658.6750.54
16 Jan 202661.4349.59
23 Jan 202662.9450.84
30 Jan 202661.3944.08
6 Feb 202670.8152.60
13 Feb 202672.3954.82
20 Feb 202668.0051.56
27 Feb 202669.2553.74
6 Mar 202675.0049.91
13 Mar 202682.5252.82
20 Mar 202682.5950.77
27 Mar 202691.9961.96
3 Apr 202693.3061.02
10 Apr 202687.9161.83
17 Apr 202680.2255.72
24 Apr 202687.1257.17
1 May 202690.7961.10
8 May 202683.0957.32
15 May 202687.3257.61
22 May 202681.1555.99
29 May 202676.8455.65
5 Jun 202677.3552.79
12 Jun 202677.0754.06
19 Jun 202672.2547.35
26 Jun 202666.1246.74
3 Jul 202663.0943.11
10 Jul 202666.1044.49
17 Jul 202668.1247.30
24 Jul 202667.9449.34
31 Jul 202668.1839.36
7 Aug 202666.0539.53
14 Aug 202669.9440.62
21 Aug 202672.8239.13
28 Aug 202668.6836.89
4 Sep 202667.0337.37
11 Sep 202666.1037.00
18 Sep 202665.4136.23
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

DOW / OLN gap 0.90ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, DOW is extended relative to OLN; below zero, DOW is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, DOW is extended relative to OLN; below zero, DOW is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateDOW / OLN gap
22 Jan 2026-2.62ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-2.52ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-2.44ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-2.39ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-2.36ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-2.54ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-1.84ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-1.66ฯƒ
3 Feb 2026-1.16ฯƒ
4 Feb 2026-1.08ฯƒ
5 Feb 2026-1.26ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-1.17ฯƒ
9 Feb 2026-0.97ฯƒ
10 Feb 2026-0.74ฯƒ
11 Feb 2026-0.67ฯƒ
12 Feb 2026-1.05ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-1.17ฯƒ
17 Feb 2026-1.04ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-1.28ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-1.18ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-1.58ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-1.42ฯƒ
24 Feb 2026-1.33ฯƒ
25 Feb 2026-1.70ฯƒ
26 Feb 2026-1.73ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-1.62ฯƒ
2 Mar 2026-1.69ฯƒ
3 Mar 2026-1.38ฯƒ
4 Mar 2026-0.73ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-0.20ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.01ฯƒ
9 Mar 20260.27ฯƒ
10 Mar 20260.19ฯƒ
11 Mar 20260.30ฯƒ
12 Mar 20260.87ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.88ฯƒ
16 Mar 20260.78ฯƒ
17 Mar 20260.69ฯƒ
18 Mar 20260.83ฯƒ
19 Mar 20260.95ฯƒ
20 Mar 20261.17ฯƒ
23 Mar 20260.51ฯƒ
24 Mar 20260.71ฯƒ
25 Mar 20261.05ฯƒ
26 Mar 20260.86ฯƒ
27 Mar 20261.21ฯƒ
30 Mar 20261.59ฯƒ
31 Mar 20261.31ฯƒ
1 Apr 20261.11ฯƒ
2 Apr 20261.51ฯƒ
6 Apr 20261.07ฯƒ
7 Apr 20261.13ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.70ฯƒ
9 Apr 20260.41ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.61ฯƒ
13 Apr 20260.87ฯƒ
14 Apr 20260.86ฯƒ
15 Apr 20260.85ฯƒ
16 Apr 20261.17ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.12ฯƒ
20 Apr 20260.34ฯƒ
21 Apr 20260.82ฯƒ
22 Apr 20261.07ฯƒ
23 Apr 20261.15ฯƒ
24 Apr 20261.05ฯƒ
27 Apr 20260.83ฯƒ
28 Apr 20260.82ฯƒ
29 Apr 20261.20ฯƒ
30 Apr 20261.23ฯƒ
1 May 20261.13ฯƒ
4 May 20261.21ฯƒ
5 May 20261.28ฯƒ
6 May 20260.47ฯƒ
7 May 20260.57ฯƒ
8 May 20260.39ฯƒ
11 May 20260.66ฯƒ
12 May 20261.10ฯƒ
13 May 20260.69ฯƒ
14 May 20260.79ฯƒ
15 May 20261.03ฯƒ
18 May 20260.88ฯƒ
19 May 20260.89ฯƒ
20 May 20260.26ฯƒ
21 May 20260.20ฯƒ
22 May 20260.24ฯƒ
26 May 2026-0.07ฯƒ
27 May 2026-0.34ฯƒ
28 May 2026-0.43ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.46ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-0.05ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-0.09ฯƒ
3 Jun 20260.22ฯƒ
4 Jun 20260.22ฯƒ
5 Jun 20260.00ฯƒ
8 Jun 20260.17ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-0.29ฯƒ
10 Jun 20260.29ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-0.03ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.21ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-0.51ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-0.19ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-0.13ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-0.14ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-0.39ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-0.57ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-0.84ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-1.01ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-1.25ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-1.48ฯƒ
30 Jun 2026-1.40ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-1.49ฯƒ
2 Jul 2026-1.31ฯƒ
6 Jul 2026-1.39ฯƒ
7 Jul 2026-1.10ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-1.01ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-0.98ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.90ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-0.45ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-0.65ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-0.99ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-1.21ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.93ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-0.79ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-1.05ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-1.04ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-1.01ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-1.35ฯƒ
27 Jul 2026-1.43ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-1.22ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-0.76ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-0.91ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.47ฯƒ
3 Aug 20260.24ฯƒ
4 Aug 20260.28ฯƒ
5 Aug 20260.11ฯƒ
6 Aug 20260.38ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.00ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.48ฯƒ
11 Aug 20260.68ฯƒ
12 Aug 20260.51ฯƒ
13 Aug 20260.37ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.67ฯƒ
17 Aug 20260.82ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.80ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.95ฯƒ
20 Aug 20261.46ฯƒ
21 Aug 20261.33ฯƒ
24 Aug 20261.27ฯƒ
25 Aug 20260.79ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.80ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.82ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.95ฯƒ
31 Aug 20261.01ฯƒ
1 Sep 20261.10ฯƒ
2 Sep 20261.24ฯƒ
3 Sep 20261.12ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.53ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.38ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.48ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.65ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.42ฯƒ
14 Sep 20260.49ฯƒ
15 Sep 20260.82ฯƒ
16 Sep 20260.97ฯƒ
17 Sep 20260.71ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.43ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.34ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.18ฯƒ
23 Sep 20260.42ฯƒ
24 Sep 20260.60ฯƒ
25 Sep 20260.28ฯƒ
28 Sep 20260.37ฯƒ
29 Sep 20260.51ฯƒ
30 Sep 20260.45ฯƒ
1 Oct 20260.26ฯƒ
2 Oct 20260.47ฯƒ
5 Oct 20260.57ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.43ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.37ฯƒ
8 Oct 20260.90ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowOLNDepressed legDOWExtended legReturn differenceOLN less DOW
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-2.1%-1.0%-1.1 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-7.4%-10.2%2.8 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-23.5%-9.5%-14.0 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in OLN / DOW?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

No pair trade

Do not pair long OLN with short DOW yet

The earlier relationship is not dependable enough to use the old gap as a trading reference. A large separation can persist when the businesses or their market drivers have changed.

01 ยท Relationship56/100

Stability 90/100 ยท break risk 46/100

02 ยท Separation1.65ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence45/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Stand aside until stability, co-movement and repeated mean crossings rebuild across completed observations.

Reconsider the pair only after a later publication shows that the relationship has stabilised, break risk has fallen and the completed daily gap is moving back toward normal.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

Until those conditions return, neither leg is a relative-value trade from this research.

A favourable relative move means OLN rises more than DOW, falls less than DOW, or rises while DOW falls. If DOW outperforms OLN, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A broken relationship can keep widening without the convergence behaviour seen in the earlier sample.

The pair remains unusable while break risk is high or the earlier co-movement has not returned.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long OLN / short DOW

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for OLN to outperform DOW; OLN can rise faster, fall less, or rise while DOW falls. The pair loses ground when DOW outperforms OLN.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œStand asideโ€ to confirmed convergence. Reconsider only after the pair rebuilds stable co-movement, repeated centre crossings and lower break risk.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study OLN alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in OLN. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and OLN-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving OLN price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study DOW alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in DOW. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in DOW must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

1.54ฯƒ from the centre

Example: OLN +5%, DOW +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.479, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioOLNDOWNew gap
Both rise5%2%1.54ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%1.33ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%1.22ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%2.08ฯƒ
Current distance: 1.65ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.479 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • The spread itself has not yet gained a separate evidence catalyst.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • DOW has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.676ร—

A 1% move in OLN is associated with approximately 0.676% in DOW in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.69

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability90/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life16.8 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings15

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context77/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 0 / 2

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 2 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
0.0%
Median time among resolved cases
Not observed
Largest further extension
1.01ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-02.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-30.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-29.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-28.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-25.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-24.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-21.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-17.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context