Basic Materials ยท Chemicals

OLN relative to CE

Olin Corporation / Celanese Corporation

OLN is relatively depressed; CE is relatively extended against their shared history.

OLN chart โ†—CE chart โ†—More OLN pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 1.66ฯƒHistorical percentile 95
Relationship quality 74/100
Evidence alignment 45/100
Stability 46/10021 centre crossings
Break risk 33/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending1.19ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

CE / OLN gap 1.66ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, CE is extended relative to OLN; below zero, CE is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, CE is extended relative to OLN; below zero, CE is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateCE / OLN gap
29 Sep 2023-0.44ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-0.19ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-0.45ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-0.34ฯƒ
27 Oct 20230.40ฯƒ
3 Nov 20230.32ฯƒ
10 Nov 20230.32ฯƒ
17 Nov 20230.33ฯƒ
24 Nov 20230.40ฯƒ
1 Dec 20230.64ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.36ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.40ฯƒ
22 Dec 20230.35ฯƒ
29 Dec 20230.34ฯƒ
5 Jan 20240.33ฯƒ
12 Jan 20240.34ฯƒ
19 Jan 20240.36ฯƒ
26 Jan 2024-0.26ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.39ฯƒ
9 Feb 20240.49ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.41ฯƒ
23 Feb 20240.33ฯƒ
1 Mar 20240.18ฯƒ
8 Mar 2024-0.10ฯƒ
15 Mar 2024-0.12ฯƒ
22 Mar 20240.36ฯƒ
29 Mar 20240.28ฯƒ
5 Apr 2024-0.07ฯƒ
12 Apr 20240.29ฯƒ
19 Apr 20240.36ฯƒ
26 Apr 20240.41ฯƒ
3 May 20240.50ฯƒ
10 May 20240.18ฯƒ
17 May 20240.08ฯƒ
24 May 20240.16ฯƒ
31 May 20240.23ฯƒ
7 Jun 20240.59ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.27ฯƒ
21 Jun 20240.31ฯƒ
28 Jun 20240.55ฯƒ
5 Jul 20240.68ฯƒ
12 Jul 20240.73ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.57ฯƒ
26 Jul 20241.24ฯƒ
2 Aug 20241.22ฯƒ
9 Aug 20241.39ฯƒ
16 Aug 20241.13ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.90ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.99ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.84ฯƒ
13 Sep 20240.73ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.71ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.43ฯƒ
4 Oct 20240.48ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.56ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.62ฯƒ
25 Oct 20241.35ฯƒ
1 Nov 20241.29ฯƒ
8 Nov 2024-2.02ฯƒ
15 Nov 2024-2.42ฯƒ
22 Nov 2024-2.64ฯƒ
29 Nov 2024-2.72ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-2.70ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-2.02ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-1.10ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-1.14ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-1.03ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-0.78ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-0.77ฯƒ
24 Jan 2025-0.37ฯƒ
31 Jan 20250.32ฯƒ
7 Feb 20250.35ฯƒ
14 Feb 20250.52ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-0.95ฯƒ
28 Feb 2025-0.70ฯƒ
7 Mar 20250.14ฯƒ
14 Mar 20250.26ฯƒ
21 Mar 20250.15ฯƒ
28 Mar 20250.30ฯƒ
4 Apr 2025-0.21ฯƒ
11 Apr 2025-0.80ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-0.70ฯƒ
25 Apr 2025-0.59ฯƒ
2 May 2025-0.30ฯƒ
9 May 20250.78ฯƒ
16 May 20251.08ฯƒ
23 May 20251.71ฯƒ
30 May 20251.73ฯƒ
6 Jun 20251.82ฯƒ
13 Jun 20251.53ฯƒ
20 Jun 20251.86ฯƒ
27 Jun 20251.77ฯƒ
4 Jul 20251.64ฯƒ
11 Jul 20251.67ฯƒ
18 Jul 20251.86ฯƒ
25 Jul 20251.65ฯƒ
1 Aug 20251.70ฯƒ
8 Aug 20251.31ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-0.55ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-0.36ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-0.76ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-1.19ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-2.00ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-1.43ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-1.92ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-1.86ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-1.54ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-1.82ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-1.72ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-1.05ฯƒ
7 Nov 20250.00ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-0.72ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-0.75ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-0.75ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-0.65ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-0.89ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-0.35ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-0.47ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-0.85ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-1.21ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-0.84ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.97ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.19ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-0.29ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-0.18ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.22ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-1.11ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.56ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.02ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.27ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.73ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-0.53ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.74ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.04ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.13ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.01ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.75ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.84ฯƒ
22 May 2026-1.14ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.99ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.81ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.70ฯƒ
19 Jun 20260.15ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.02ฯƒ
3 Jul 20260.48ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.10ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.61ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.87ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.84ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.67ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.71ฯƒ
21 Aug 20261.20ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.44ฯƒ
4 Sep 20261.28ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.58ฯƒ
18 Sep 20261.66ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

CE 37.25OLN 36.23
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 50.0100.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateCEOLN
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202395.8793.94
13 Oct 202395.1696.28
20 Oct 202391.7992.40
27 Oct 202390.9884.27
3 Nov 202396.9689.36
10 Nov 202395.0087.98
17 Nov 2023104.1594.37
24 Nov 2023106.5795.36
1 Dec 2023113.0697.17
8 Dec 2023113.31100.46
15 Dec 2023121.84105.93
22 Dec 2023124.60108.34
29 Dec 2023124.54108.44
5 Jan 2024120.34105.77
12 Jan 2024118.13104.04
19 Jan 2024116.34102.62
26 Jan 2024117.15110.86
2 Feb 2024117.81103.22
9 Feb 2024119.37103.08
16 Feb 2024121.65105.63
23 Feb 2024120.30105.71
1 Mar 2024123.58109.89
8 Mar 2024125.22114.61
15 Mar 2024128.89117.51
22 Mar 2024133.21114.10
29 Mar 2024138.40118.62
5 Apr 2024130.96118.34
12 Apr 2024125.66109.80
19 Apr 2024124.38108.11
26 Apr 2024124.98107.89
3 May 2024127.15108.19
10 May 2024126.76111.98
17 May 2024127.28113.68
24 May 2024123.67110.14
31 May 2024123.00108.84
7 Jun 2024118.49101.37
14 Jun 2024112.76101.17
21 Jun 2024110.8399.33
28 Jun 2024109.1295.46
5 Jul 2024106.9392.57
12 Jul 2024115.0797.51
19 Jul 2024112.3397.41
26 Jul 2024112.5190.28
2 Aug 2024106.9587.00
9 Aug 2024102.8582.70
16 Aug 2024104.9386.61
23 Aug 2024107.3090.43
30 Aug 2024106.1888.85
6 Sep 202497.6084.61
13 Sep 2024100.1287.40
20 Sep 2024103.1789.72
27 Sep 2024113.2599.63
4 Oct 2024111.1297.62
11 Oct 2024110.7296.46
18 Oct 2024110.5595.62
25 Oct 2024104.7784.29
1 Nov 2024102.0383.13
8 Nov 202469.3290.11
15 Nov 202460.3284.61
22 Nov 202461.0787.64
29 Nov 202459.8587.06
6 Dec 202457.6784.37
13 Dec 202456.0676.27
20 Dec 202455.8068.38
27 Dec 202456.2169.03
3 Jan 202554.0666.15
10 Jan 202553.1563.37
17 Jan 202559.3669.03
24 Jan 202560.5066.91
31 Jan 202558.0859.88
7 Feb 202555.6357.69
14 Feb 202555.6456.58
21 Feb 202543.1354.91
28 Feb 202541.6751.90
7 Mar 202545.2550.28
14 Mar 202546.6650.78
21 Mar 202546.7151.50
28 Mar 202546.7950.63
4 Apr 202533.5341.42
11 Apr 202531.3942.10
18 Apr 202532.7943.05
25 Apr 202535.6145.34
2 May 202537.6145.75
9 May 202541.9243.95
16 May 202543.8143.96
23 May 202542.9740.25
30 May 202543.2440.38
6 Jun 202545.4041.52
13 Jun 202544.7242.40
20 Jun 202543.8040.19
27 Jun 202546.4742.50
4 Jul 202549.8345.60
11 Jul 202549.9545.52
18 Jul 202546.9142.40
25 Jul 202548.0544.23
1 Aug 202539.7637.92
8 Aug 202539.3539.36
15 Aug 202534.7944.31
22 Aug 202539.8348.20
29 Aug 202539.0149.65
5 Sep 202539.9153.11
12 Sep 202537.3455.36
19 Sep 202536.2450.68
26 Sep 202533.4050.28
3 Oct 202536.9754.06
10 Oct 202532.1846.75
17 Oct 202532.9149.12
24 Oct 202534.5750.49
31 Oct 202531.5043.44
7 Nov 202533.8540.71
14 Nov 202531.9142.22
21 Nov 202531.0941.51
28 Nov 202534.1344.70
5 Dec 202533.3043.34
12 Dec 202535.6546.98
19 Dec 202534.6643.19
26 Dec 202535.1244.25
2 Jan 202634.5545.65
9 Jan 202637.3550.54
16 Jan 202638.4749.59
23 Jan 202638.9550.84
30 Jan 202636.4244.08
6 Feb 202644.9852.60
13 Feb 202648.2354.82
20 Feb 202644.3551.56
27 Feb 202640.9553.74
6 Mar 202640.4449.91
13 Mar 202647.3552.82
20 Mar 202646.7050.77
27 Mar 202652.0061.96
3 Apr 202652.5361.02
10 Apr 202651.7761.83
17 Apr 202650.8755.72
24 Apr 202653.3057.17
1 May 202656.8061.10
8 May 202646.9057.32
15 May 202646.6057.61
22 May 202642.9855.99
29 May 202643.5955.65
5 Jun 202641.8652.79
12 Jun 202643.8754.06
19 Jun 202641.9747.35
26 Jun 202640.5246.74
3 Jul 202639.0943.11
10 Jul 202638.4744.49
17 Jul 202637.4747.30
24 Jul 202638.0649.34
31 Jul 202636.6939.36
7 Aug 202636.0139.53
14 Aug 202637.4640.62
21 Aug 202638.3939.13
28 Aug 202636.9236.89
4 Sep 202636.6537.37
11 Sep 202637.8137.00
18 Sep 202637.2536.23
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

CE / OLN gap 1.19ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, CE is extended relative to OLN; below zero, CE is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, CE is extended relative to OLN; below zero, CE is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateCE / OLN gap
22 Jan 2026-1.66ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-1.63ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-1.48ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-1.40ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-1.56ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-1.62ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-1.32ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-1.43ฯƒ
3 Feb 2026-1.08ฯƒ
4 Feb 2026-0.67ฯƒ
5 Feb 2026-0.14ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.08ฯƒ
9 Feb 20260.21ฯƒ
10 Feb 20260.53ฯƒ
11 Feb 20260.94ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.75ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.69ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.64ฯƒ
18 Feb 20260.04ฯƒ
19 Feb 20260.28ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.06ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-0.10ฯƒ
24 Feb 2026-0.18ฯƒ
25 Feb 2026-0.91ฯƒ
26 Feb 2026-1.12ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-1.41ฯƒ
2 Mar 2026-1.48ฯƒ
3 Mar 2026-0.74ฯƒ
4 Mar 2026-0.83ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-0.51ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.94ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-0.51ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-0.62ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-0.37ฯƒ
12 Mar 20260.76ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.76ฯƒ
16 Mar 20260.51ฯƒ
17 Mar 20260.97ฯƒ
18 Mar 20260.73ฯƒ
19 Mar 20261.07ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.91ฯƒ
23 Mar 20260.18ฯƒ
24 Mar 20260.53ฯƒ
25 Mar 20260.80ฯƒ
26 Mar 20260.38ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.67ฯƒ
30 Mar 20260.89ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.97ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.63ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.95ฯƒ
6 Apr 20260.69ฯƒ
7 Apr 20260.38ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.76ฯƒ
9 Apr 20260.61ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.63ฯƒ
13 Apr 20261.56ฯƒ
14 Apr 20261.29ฯƒ
15 Apr 20261.34ฯƒ
16 Apr 20262.03ฯƒ
17 Apr 20261.29ฯƒ
20 Apr 20261.37ฯƒ
21 Apr 20261.75ฯƒ
22 Apr 20261.78ฯƒ
23 Apr 20261.95ฯƒ
24 Apr 20261.72ฯƒ
27 Apr 20261.72ฯƒ
28 Apr 20261.65ฯƒ
29 Apr 20261.55ฯƒ
30 Apr 20261.76ฯƒ
1 May 20262.02ฯƒ
4 May 20261.90ฯƒ
5 May 20261.95ฯƒ
6 May 20260.46ฯƒ
7 May 20260.24ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.08ฯƒ
11 May 2026-0.01ฯƒ
12 May 20260.22ฯƒ
13 May 20260.09ฯƒ
14 May 2026-0.39ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.22ฯƒ
18 May 2026-0.57ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.78ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.89ฯƒ
21 May 2026-0.95ฯƒ
22 May 2026-1.09ฯƒ
26 May 2026-1.13ฯƒ
27 May 2026-0.95ฯƒ
28 May 2026-1.10ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.84ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-0.25ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-0.31ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-0.21ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-0.30ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.94ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-1.39ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-0.96ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-0.90ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-0.65ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.50ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-0.48ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-0.44ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-0.33ฯƒ
18 Jun 20260.04ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-0.17ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-0.59ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-0.42ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-0.34ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.33ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-0.98ฯƒ
30 Jun 2026-0.53ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-0.67ฯƒ
2 Jul 2026-0.13ฯƒ
6 Jul 2026-0.01ฯƒ
7 Jul 2026-0.14ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-0.64ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-0.50ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.62ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-0.53ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-0.78ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-1.02ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-1.49ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-1.52ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-1.95ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-1.76ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-1.58ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-1.66ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-1.77ฯƒ
27 Jul 2026-1.88ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-1.95ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-2.14ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-1.86ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.32ฯƒ
3 Aug 2026-0.63ฯƒ
4 Aug 2026-0.41ฯƒ
5 Aug 2026-0.91ฯƒ
6 Aug 2026-0.67ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-0.61ฯƒ
10 Aug 2026-0.54ฯƒ
11 Aug 2026-0.54ฯƒ
12 Aug 2026-0.86ฯƒ
13 Aug 2026-0.60ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-0.20ฯƒ
17 Aug 2026-0.36ฯƒ
18 Aug 2026-0.22ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.16ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.41ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.47ฯƒ
24 Aug 20260.40ฯƒ
25 Aug 20260.27ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.26ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.33ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.43ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.46ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.17ฯƒ
2 Sep 20260.68ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.59ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.22ฯƒ
8 Sep 2026-0.08ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.11ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.57ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.74ฯƒ
14 Sep 20260.50ฯƒ
15 Sep 20261.11ฯƒ
16 Sep 20261.07ฯƒ
17 Sep 20261.05ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.72ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.56ฯƒ
22 Sep 20261.34ฯƒ
23 Sep 20261.67ฯƒ
24 Sep 20261.67ฯƒ
25 Sep 20261.45ฯƒ
28 Sep 20261.29ฯƒ
29 Sep 20261.30ฯƒ
30 Sep 20261.12ฯƒ
1 Oct 20260.81ฯƒ
2 Oct 20260.84ฯƒ
5 Oct 20261.05ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.88ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.72ฯƒ
8 Oct 20261.19ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowOLNDepressed legCEExtended legReturn differenceOLN less CE
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-2.1%-1.5%-0.6 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-7.4%-3.0%-4.5 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-23.5%-11.2%-12.3 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in OLN / CE?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long OLN / short CE

The proposed pair would look for OLN to outperform CE, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship74/100

Stability 46/100 ยท break risk 33/100

02 ยท Separation1.66ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence44/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Treat this as a watch condition until the spread turns and at least one leg develops confirming evidence.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that OLN is improving relative to CE. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means OLN rises more than CE, falls less than CE, or rises while CE falls. If CE outperforms OLN, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A large z-score alone is not a reason to expect mean reversion; the separation may reflect new information.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, OLN continues to weaken relative to CE, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long OLN / short CE

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for OLN to outperform CE; OLN can rise faster, fall less, or rise while CE falls. The pair loses ground when CE outperforms OLN.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWatch, do not assume convergenceโ€ to confirmed convergence. Wait for the daily gap to narrow and for OLN to improve or CE to lose support.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study OLN alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in OLN. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and OLN-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving OLN price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study CE alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in CE. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in CE must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

1.37ฯƒ from the centre

Example: OLN +5%, CE +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 0.782, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioOLNCENew gap
Both rise5%2%1.37ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%1.49ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%1.20ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%2.12ฯƒ
Current distance: 1.66ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 0.782 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • The spread itself has not yet gained a separate evidence catalyst.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • CE has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

1.278ร—

A 1% move in OLN is associated with approximately 1.278% in CE in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.52

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability46/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life5.5 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings21

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context77/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 4 / 4

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 4 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
100.0%
Median time among resolved cases
4.5 weeks
Largest further extension
0.01ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-30.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-29.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-23.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-18.

Research state changed

Changed from Leader rollover to Unconfirmed stretch.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-11.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-10.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-02.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context