Energy ยท Oil & Gas Drilling

BORR relative to RIG

Borr Drilling Ltd / Transocean Ltd

BORR is relatively depressed; RIG is relatively extended against their shared history.

BORR chart โ†—RIG chart โ†—More BORR pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -1.17ฯƒHistorical percentile 12
Relationship quality 80/100
Evidence alignment 44/100
Stability 87/10022 centre crossings
Break risk 20/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap narrowing0.00ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

BORR / RIG gap -1.17ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, BORR is extended relative to RIG; below zero, BORR is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, BORR is extended relative to RIG; below zero, BORR is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateBORR / RIG gap
29 Sep 2023-1.41ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-1.12ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-0.82ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-0.54ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-0.63ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-0.69ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-0.89ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-0.53ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.27ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-0.51ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.23ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.69ฯƒ
22 Dec 20230.63ฯƒ
29 Dec 20230.70ฯƒ
5 Jan 20240.83ฯƒ
12 Jan 20241.00ฯƒ
19 Jan 20241.43ฯƒ
26 Jan 20241.45ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.93ฯƒ
9 Feb 20241.35ฯƒ
16 Feb 20241.92ฯƒ
23 Feb 20241.97ฯƒ
1 Mar 20241.36ฯƒ
8 Mar 20241.46ฯƒ
15 Mar 20241.00ฯƒ
22 Mar 20240.76ฯƒ
29 Mar 20240.44ฯƒ
5 Apr 2024-0.89ฯƒ
12 Apr 2024-0.42ฯƒ
19 Apr 2024-0.14ฯƒ
26 Apr 2024-0.41ฯƒ
3 May 20240.01ฯƒ
10 May 20240.06ฯƒ
17 May 2024-0.20ฯƒ
24 May 20241.05ฯƒ
31 May 20240.65ฯƒ
7 Jun 20240.97ฯƒ
14 Jun 20241.33ฯƒ
21 Jun 20241.39ฯƒ
28 Jun 20241.34ฯƒ
5 Jul 20241.50ฯƒ
12 Jul 20241.53ฯƒ
19 Jul 20241.59ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.98ฯƒ
2 Aug 20241.09ฯƒ
9 Aug 20241.17ฯƒ
16 Aug 20241.38ฯƒ
23 Aug 20241.97ฯƒ
30 Aug 20241.96ฯƒ
6 Sep 20242.26ฯƒ
13 Sep 20242.34ฯƒ
20 Sep 20241.80ฯƒ
27 Sep 20242.18ฯƒ
4 Oct 20241.57ฯƒ
11 Oct 20241.92ฯƒ
18 Oct 20241.79ฯƒ
25 Oct 20241.38ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.33ฯƒ
8 Nov 2024-0.24ฯƒ
15 Nov 20240.17ฯƒ
22 Nov 2024-0.10ฯƒ
29 Nov 2024-0.51ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-0.47ฯƒ
13 Dec 20240.47ฯƒ
20 Dec 20240.91ฯƒ
27 Dec 20240.91ฯƒ
3 Jan 20250.78ฯƒ
10 Jan 20250.52ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-0.35ฯƒ
24 Jan 20250.12ฯƒ
31 Jan 2025-0.09ฯƒ
7 Feb 20250.18ฯƒ
14 Feb 20250.05ฯƒ
21 Feb 20250.03ฯƒ
28 Feb 20250.09ฯƒ
7 Mar 2025-0.40ฯƒ
14 Mar 2025-0.83ฯƒ
21 Mar 2025-0.97ฯƒ
28 Mar 2025-1.23ฯƒ
4 Apr 2025-0.03ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.67ฯƒ
18 Apr 20250.41ฯƒ
25 Apr 20250.19ฯƒ
2 May 2025-0.65ฯƒ
9 May 2025-0.91ฯƒ
16 May 2025-1.15ฯƒ
23 May 2025-1.30ฯƒ
30 May 2025-0.90ฯƒ
6 Jun 2025-1.06ฯƒ
13 Jun 2025-1.45ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.99ฯƒ
27 Jun 2025-0.89ฯƒ
4 Jul 2025-0.54ฯƒ
11 Jul 2025-0.92ฯƒ
18 Jul 2025-0.87ฯƒ
25 Jul 2025-0.84ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-1.38ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-1.20ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-0.44ฯƒ
22 Aug 20250.34ฯƒ
29 Aug 20250.78ฯƒ
5 Sep 20250.95ฯƒ
12 Sep 20250.36ฯƒ
19 Sep 20250.19ฯƒ
26 Sep 20250.44ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-0.11ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-0.42ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-0.50ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-0.87ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-0.58ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-0.68ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-0.62ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-0.69ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-1.20ฯƒ
5 Dec 20250.00ฯƒ
12 Dec 20250.36ฯƒ
19 Dec 20250.59ฯƒ
26 Dec 20250.61ฯƒ
2 Jan 20260.25ฯƒ
9 Jan 20260.63ฯƒ
16 Jan 20260.67ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.01ฯƒ
30 Jan 20260.06ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.22ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-0.82ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.47ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-0.24ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.21ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-1.28ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.57ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.82ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-0.67ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.52ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.19ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.26ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.67ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.43ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.72ฯƒ
22 May 2026-1.25ฯƒ
29 May 2026-1.14ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-1.10ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.52ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-1.07ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.58ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-0.33ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.76ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.92ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-1.11ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-1.37ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-1.55ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-1.37ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-1.48ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-1.39ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-1.33ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-1.48ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-1.17ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

BORR 66.31RIG 68.70
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 20.040.060.080.0100.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateBORRRIG
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202396.2093.06
13 Oct 2023102.1193.91
20 Oct 202397.7587.21
27 Oct 202386.6279.78
3 Nov 202390.4283.31
10 Nov 202384.6581.00
17 Nov 202387.1879.17
24 Nov 202391.9779.90
1 Dec 202388.4579.90
8 Dec 202387.0471.26
15 Dec 202398.7374.42
22 Dec 2023102.5477.47
29 Dec 2023103.6677.35
5 Jan 2024101.6874.79
12 Jan 202492.8867.84
19 Jan 202494.7365.04
26 Jan 2024102.9569.55
2 Feb 202483.5262.61
9 Feb 202489.6262.73
16 Feb 202492.3259.56
23 Feb 202488.0656.88
1 Mar 202488.4962.00
8 Mar 202493.3563.95
15 Mar 202497.6470.65
22 Mar 202497.0772.72
29 Mar 202497.9276.49
5 Apr 202482.7779.54
12 Apr 202483.6375.27
19 Apr 202478.9169.06
26 Apr 202478.7771.50
3 May 202479.2067.84
10 May 202483.0670.16
17 May 202484.2073.45
24 May 202497.7870.28
31 May 202499.9275.52
7 Jun 202489.1965.77
14 Jun 202489.6362.97
21 Jun 202490.2162.73
28 Jun 202493.5465.16
5 Jul 202490.6462.12
12 Jul 202495.4364.56
19 Jul 202495.7264.19
26 Jul 202497.1770.65
2 Aug 202486.8763.34
9 Aug 202487.6063.09
16 Aug 202490.6463.09
23 Aug 202494.9360.54
30 Aug 202489.4857.73
6 Sep 202479.4650.18
13 Sep 202480.7850.31
20 Sep 202482.8555.30
27 Sep 202482.8552.50
4 Oct 202482.5556.88
11 Oct 202479.1652.38
18 Oct 202476.2151.64
25 Oct 202469.2850.43
1 Nov 202460.1451.64
8 Nov 202458.3854.45
15 Nov 202458.2351.40
22 Nov 202459.7054.45
29 Nov 202454.8453.59
6 Dec 202449.5348.97
13 Dec 202454.9947.02
20 Dec 202453.0743.00
27 Dec 202453.0743.00
3 Jan 202559.5648.23
10 Jan 202558.3849.09
17 Jan 202551.1549.45
24 Jan 202551.7446.89
31 Jan 202551.1547.75
7 Feb 202547.9143.61
14 Feb 202546.1443.00
21 Feb 202543.3440.93
28 Feb 202537.4435.93
7 Mar 202535.8337.03
14 Mar 202533.4537.03
21 Mar 202534.6438.86
28 Mar 202533.3138.98
4 Apr 202525.4326.43
11 Apr 202529.8927.53
18 Apr 202528.9927.77
25 Apr 202528.7028.38
2 May 202525.5728.87
9 May 202527.5131.79
16 May 202526.4731.79
23 May 202524.3830.33
30 May 202526.0230.33
6 Jun 202528.7033.62
13 Jun 202533.6040.44
20 Jun 202530.9335.45
27 Jun 202527.2131.43
4 Jul 202531.3733.74
11 Jul 202530.4834.71
18 Jul 202527.9532.03
25 Jul 202532.8636.54
1 Aug 202527.9534.35
8 Aug 202532.2637.76
15 Aug 202534.3535.93
22 Aug 202540.4437.03
29 Aug 202543.2736.91
5 Sep 202545.2037.39
12 Sep 202544.7540.20
19 Sep 202543.8640.44
26 Sep 202543.5638.86
3 Oct 202542.5241.05
10 Oct 202536.2837.52
17 Oct 202538.3639.71
24 Oct 202544.7547.50
31 Oct 202546.0946.77
7 Nov 202547.2848.48
14 Nov 202548.1748.84
21 Nov 202545.9447.38
28 Nov 202549.2153.72
5 Dec 202560.2254.08
12 Dec 202558.5850.31
19 Dec 202557.9948.36
26 Dec 202559.0348.97
2 Jan 202659.3351.64
9 Jan 202663.3451.77
16 Jan 202663.3451.52
23 Jan 202666.4658.83
30 Jan 202669.5860.54
6 Feb 202678.8065.65
13 Feb 202683.8679.66
20 Feb 202688.4779.42
27 Feb 202691.1478.93
6 Mar 202682.3772.23
13 Mar 202675.2377.47
20 Mar 202669.8875.76
27 Mar 202689.9584.41
3 Apr 202686.6880.27
10 Apr 202687.7279.42
17 Apr 202682.8272.35
24 Apr 202684.6074.42
1 May 202690.7083.31
8 May 202686.9877.95
15 May 202693.0885.75
22 May 202682.0782.95
29 May 202674.4975.40
5 Jun 202671.5272.47
12 Jun 202668.1073.57
19 Jun 202662.7464.68
26 Jun 202664.8362.24
3 Jul 202666.7661.63
10 Jul 202664.3863.34
17 Jul 202661.8562.61
24 Jul 202662.8965.16
31 Jul 202659.9264.80
7 Aug 202657.3964.07
14 Aug 202665.8770.16
21 Aug 202666.9172.11
28 Aug 202666.1670.65
4 Sep 202667.5071.26
11 Sep 202663.4969.06
18 Sep 202666.3168.70
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

BORR / RIG gap 0.00ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, BORR is extended relative to RIG; below zero, BORR is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, BORR is extended relative to RIG; below zero, BORR is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateBORR / RIG gap
22 Jan 20261.61ฯƒ
23 Jan 20261.48ฯƒ
26 Jan 20261.23ฯƒ
27 Jan 20261.23ฯƒ
28 Jan 20261.48ฯƒ
29 Jan 20261.72ฯƒ
30 Jan 20261.64ฯƒ
2 Feb 20262.07ฯƒ
3 Feb 20262.18ฯƒ
4 Feb 20261.98ฯƒ
5 Feb 20262.36ฯƒ
6 Feb 20262.01ฯƒ
9 Feb 20261.93ฯƒ
10 Feb 20262.30ฯƒ
11 Feb 20261.49ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.94ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.14ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.55ฯƒ
18 Feb 20261.11ฯƒ
19 Feb 20261.23ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.82ฯƒ
23 Feb 20260.79ฯƒ
24 Feb 20261.03ฯƒ
25 Feb 20261.20ฯƒ
26 Feb 20261.05ฯƒ
27 Feb 20261.25ฯƒ
2 Mar 20261.73ฯƒ
3 Mar 20261.39ฯƒ
4 Mar 20260.95ฯƒ
5 Mar 20261.34ฯƒ
6 Mar 20261.25ฯƒ
9 Mar 20260.78ฯƒ
10 Mar 20260.61ฯƒ
11 Mar 20260.44ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-0.61ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.76ฯƒ
16 Mar 2026-0.58ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-1.31ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-0.97ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-1.49ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.33ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-1.04ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-0.97ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-0.51ฯƒ
26 Mar 20260.01ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.19ฯƒ
30 Mar 20260.25ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.23ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.47ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.43ฯƒ
6 Apr 20260.65ฯƒ
7 Apr 20260.53ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.61ฯƒ
9 Apr 20260.69ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.72ฯƒ
13 Apr 20260.59ฯƒ
14 Apr 20261.05ฯƒ
15 Apr 20260.68ฯƒ
16 Apr 20260.12ฯƒ
17 Apr 20261.29ฯƒ
20 Apr 20261.34ฯƒ
21 Apr 20260.87ฯƒ
22 Apr 20260.79ฯƒ
23 Apr 20261.02ฯƒ
24 Apr 20261.16ฯƒ
27 Apr 20260.41ฯƒ
28 Apr 20260.54ฯƒ
29 Apr 20260.29ฯƒ
30 Apr 20260.37ฯƒ
1 May 20260.46ฯƒ
4 May 20260.37ฯƒ
5 May 20261.32ฯƒ
6 May 20261.49ฯƒ
7 May 20261.34ฯƒ
8 May 20260.87ฯƒ
11 May 20261.16ฯƒ
12 May 20261.18ฯƒ
13 May 20260.83ฯƒ
14 May 20260.71ฯƒ
15 May 20260.38ฯƒ
18 May 20260.03ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.57ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.33ฯƒ
21 May 2026-0.42ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.65ฯƒ
26 May 2026-0.40ฯƒ
27 May 2026-0.42ฯƒ
28 May 2026-0.43ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.51ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-0.20ฯƒ
2 Jun 20260.13ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-0.37ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-0.55ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.46ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-0.78ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-0.90ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-1.30ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-1.01ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.24ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-0.71ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-0.88ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-1.00ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-0.47ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-0.39ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-0.36ฯƒ
24 Jun 20260.64ฯƒ
25 Jun 20260.23ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.43ฯƒ
29 Jun 20260.21ฯƒ
30 Jun 20260.39ฯƒ
1 Jul 20260.94ฯƒ
2 Jul 20260.91ฯƒ
6 Jul 20261.21ฯƒ
7 Jul 20260.94ฯƒ
8 Jul 20260.57ฯƒ
9 Jul 20260.38ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.12ฯƒ
13 Jul 20260.03ฯƒ
14 Jul 20260.08ฯƒ
15 Jul 20260.09ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-0.06ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.20ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-0.28ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-0.40ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-0.47ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-0.47ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.54ฯƒ
27 Jul 2026-0.70ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-0.56ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-0.60ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-0.53ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-1.04ฯƒ
3 Aug 2026-0.89ฯƒ
4 Aug 2026-0.81ฯƒ
5 Aug 2026-0.99ฯƒ
6 Aug 2026-1.07ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-1.39ฯƒ
10 Aug 2026-1.64ฯƒ
11 Aug 2026-1.57ฯƒ
12 Aug 2026-1.73ฯƒ
13 Aug 2026-1.98ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-0.99ฯƒ
17 Aug 2026-1.06ฯƒ
18 Aug 2026-1.13ฯƒ
19 Aug 2026-1.25ฯƒ
20 Aug 2026-1.56ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-1.17ฯƒ
24 Aug 2026-1.15ฯƒ
25 Aug 2026-0.89ฯƒ
26 Aug 2026-0.69ฯƒ
27 Aug 2026-0.65ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-1.03ฯƒ
31 Aug 2026-0.97ฯƒ
1 Sep 2026-0.91ฯƒ
2 Sep 2026-1.05ฯƒ
3 Sep 2026-1.11ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.91ฯƒ
8 Sep 2026-0.96ฯƒ
9 Sep 2026-1.22ฯƒ
10 Sep 2026-1.17ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-1.21ฯƒ
14 Sep 2026-1.10ฯƒ
15 Sep 2026-1.59ฯƒ
16 Sep 2026-1.01ฯƒ
17 Sep 2026-0.94ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.63ฯƒ
21 Sep 2026-0.25ฯƒ
22 Sep 2026-0.27ฯƒ
23 Sep 2026-0.48ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-0.66ฯƒ
25 Sep 2026-0.70ฯƒ
28 Sep 2026-0.99ฯƒ
29 Sep 2026-1.11ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-1.25ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-0.77ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-1.01ฯƒ
5 Oct 2026-1.16ฯƒ
6 Oct 2026-0.72ฯƒ
7 Oct 2026-0.45ฯƒ
8 Oct 20260.00ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowBORRDepressed legRIGExtended legReturn differenceBORR less RIG
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-184.4%-0.5%5.0 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-0.9%-4.7%3.8 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-185.7%6.2%-0.5 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in BORR / RIG?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Convergence condition active

Long BORR / short RIG

Treat the two legs as one relative trade. The idea works when BORR outperforms RIG, not simply when BORR rises or RIG falls.

01 ยท Relationship80/100

Stability 87/100 ยท break risk 20/100

02 ยท Separation1.17ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence44/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap narrowing

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Look for continued repair in the weaker leg and a turn lower in the absolute spread before treating convergence as established.

The research trigger is active because the completed daily gap is narrowing while BORR improves relative to RIG. For a fresh position, require the next completed daily update to continue that move toward normal.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

Maintain the case only while BORR continues to gain on RIG, relationship quality remains usable and the wider evidence does not reverse.

A favourable relative move means BORR rises more than RIG, falls less than RIG, or rises while RIG falls. If RIG outperforms BORR, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A renewed deterioration in the weaker leg would turn repair into continued divergence.

The case fails if the completed gap widens again while BORR weakens relative to RIG, or if the publication moves into a relationship-break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long BORR / short RIG

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for BORR to outperform RIG; BORR can rise faster, fall less, or rise while RIG falls. The pair loses ground when RIG outperforms BORR.

When it becomes relevant This is the clearest expression to study now because both the weekly evidence and completed daily timing agree. Look for BORR to keep gaining relative to RIG while relationship quality and evidence alignment hold.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study BORR alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in BORR. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and BORR-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving BORR price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study RIG alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in RIG. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in RIG must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

1.02ฯƒ from the centre

Example: BORR +5%, RIG +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.198, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioBORRRIGNew gap
Both rise5%2%1.02ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.92ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.77ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.58ฯƒ
Current distance: 1.17ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.198 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • BORR Market Dynamics is improving.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • RIG has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

1.198ร—

A 1% move in RIG is associated with approximately 1.198% in BORR in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.66

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability87/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life7.4 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings22

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context71/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 2

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 2 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
50.0%
Median time among resolved cases
1.0 weeks
Largest further extension
0.73ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-25.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-16.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-09.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-03.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-02.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-31.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context