Weekly structural research · NYSE · Financial Services

FLG Stage Analysis

Flagstar Financial, Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 11.32Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -87−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 94/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -16.3%USD 13.53 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	11.32	13.73	-21.99	33724326	Downward Expansion	-87	94
2026-10-02	11.70	13.76	-18.68	29934260	Rotation Down	-87	89
2026-09-25	12.37	13.79	-14.47	25928915	Rotation Down	-53	71
2026-09-18	12.55	13.80	-12.27	27501906	Rotation Down	-53	66
2026-09-11	13.18	13.85	-8.14	14020286	Rotation Down	-33	52
2026-09-04	13.52	13.88	-6.69	17248774	Rotation Down	-23	39
2026-08-28	13.44	13.91	-7.39	21562820	Deceleration	-28	33
2026-08-21	13.46	13.90	-7.05	21703750	Deceleration	-26	25
2026-08-14	14.24	13.88	-3.22	16564704	Deceleration	21	21
2026-08-07	13.94	13.83	-5.15	18356274	Deceleration	19	17
2026-07-31	14.21	13.80	0.06	28478453	Deceleration	34	18
2026-07-24	13.85	13.75	-1.32	27517642	Upward Expansion	33	23
2026-07-17	14.90	13.71	5.62	16599175	Upward Expansion	59	54
2026-07-10	15.09	13.66	5.44	18357804	Upward Expansion	66	64
2026-07-03	14.59	13.58	3.52	22424305	Upward Expansion	62	66
2026-06-26	15.28	13.52	10.94	35432679	Upward Expansion	76	72
2026-06-19	14.65	13.42	4.18	27435087	Upward Expansion	61	57
2026-06-12	14.94	13.31	7.23	24303595	Deceleration	72	52
2026-06-05	14.02	13.18	1.36	21814421	Deceleration	40	21
2026-05-29	14.05	13.08	-1.05	14863890	Deceleration	41	24
2026-05-22	13.84	12.99	-1.22	16444120	Upward Expansion	37	22
2026-05-15	13.22	12.93	-5.01	17812851	Upward Expansion	46	28
2026-05-08	14.27	12.86	2.38	23269190	Upward Expansion	61	61
2026-05-01	13.93	12.77	2.08	22347451	Upward Expansion	58	63
2026-04-24	14.02	12.70	3.48	33901334	Upward Expansion	57	62
2026-04-17	14.64	12.62	8.43	18789166	Upward Expansion	71	61
2026-04-10	14.03	12.54	8.68	21447365	Deceleration	59	34
2026-04-03	13.47	12.49	8.31	20440032	Deceleration	24	14
2026-03-27	13.04	12.47	8.42	31013887	Deceleration	10	18
2026-03-20	12.27	12.46	-0.30	25733517	Deceleration	1	19
2026-03-13	12.19	12.47	-3.01	25783956	Deceleration	13	16
2026-03-06	12.59	12.46	-1.61	22695296	Upward Expansion	35	21
2026-02-27	12.67	12.43	-3.09	28440133	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-02-20	13.92	12.38	5.73	27468183	Upward Expansion	65	69
2026-02-13	14.16	12.29	8.73	24126521	Upward Expansion	75	70
2026-02-06	14.25	12.21	7.90	32695027	Upward Expansion	81	64
2026-01-30	13.20	12.11	-0.24	25669618	Upward Expansion	63	41
2026-01-23	12.89	12.04	-2.26	16772613	Upward Expansion	56	35
2026-01-16	12.88	11.97	-2.39	24860191	Upward Expansion	57	37
2026-01-09	13.02	11.93	-1.40	34943754	Upward Expansion	62	54
2026-01-02	12.53	11.86	-3.26	12058111	Upward Expansion	59	63
2025-12-26	12.75	11.83	-2.38	13787349	Upward Expansion	61	69
2025-12-19	13.37	11.79	4.16	29563354	Upward Expansion	74	70
2025-12-12	12.85	11.74	0.67	30953889	Balance	64	45
2025-12-05	12.68	11.73	-1.17	23249499	Balance	31	21
2025-11-28	12.21	11.70	-4.55	19653595	Rotation Down	14	12
2025-11-21	11.32	11.70	-8.41	24426425	Rotation Down	-44	42
2025-11-14	11.13	11.71	-11.91	22361821	Rotation Down	-29	30
2025-11-07	10.86	11.68	-14.15	23687882	Balance	-28	31
2025-10-31	11.39	11.65	-11.57	25485181	Balance	-17	18
2025-10-24	12.08	11.62	-5.72	23347093	Upward Expansion	25	19
2025-10-17	11.25	11.60	-10.52	28622464	Upward Expansion	-11	20
2025-10-10	11.35	11.63	-8.53	27162573	Upward Expansion	11	17
2025-10-03	11.99	11.65	-6.02	26711659	Upward Expansion	33	18
2025-09-26	11.55	11.63	-8.56	24050125	Upward Expansion	33	22
2025-09-19	12.16	11.64	-4.28	26981628	Upward Expansion	58	59
2025-09-12	12.64	11.64	0.52	19584786	Upward Expansion	62	70
2025-09-05	12.94	11.66	4.55	16206700	Balance	69	71
2025-08-29	12.78	11.63	3.59	26475310	Balance	41	53
2025-08-22	12.59	11.60	2.07	30501584	Balance	39	39
2025-08-15	11.90	11.50	-3.30	26549607	Balance	5	9
2025-08-08	11.52	11.41	-5.60	33082838	Balance	3	5
2025-08-01	11.17	11.32	-6.22	37661283	Balance	-7	5
2025-07-25	11.36	11.27	-7.01	45966499	Balance	15	7
2025-07-18	11.72	11.19	-2.81	28040348	Balance	11	9
2025-07-11	11.24	11.10	-6.44	29086188	Balance	8	13
2025-07-04	11.14	11.09	-7.69	26592239	Balance	7	14
2025-06-27	10.78	11.09	-9.18	65353089	Balance	11	12
2025-06-20	11.53	11.13	0.54	20068033	Balance	26	15
2025-06-13	11.01	11.14	-3.98	25870599	Balance	21	12
2025-06-06	11.72	11.12	2.07	27758904	Upward Expansion	48	29
2025-05-30	11.47	11.10	1.75	19629853	Upward Expansion	51	47
2025-05-23	11.77	11.06	6.33	30961369	Upward Expansion	54	55
2025-05-16	12.57	11.02	10.80	38570593	Deceleration	65	56
2025-05-09	11.95	11.00	10.95	33242954	Deceleration	42	26
2025-05-02	12.00	10.99	11.08	25014772	Deceleration	39	18
2025-04-25	11.68	10.95	11.34	37570251	Deceleration	1	13
2025-04-18	10.40	10.94	4.04	20684038	Deceleration	-15	23
2025-04-11	9.90	10.98	-2.16	39116196	Deceleration	-13	17
2025-04-04	10.40	11.00	8.79	33698944	Deceleration	18	12
2025-03-28	11.55	11.01	10.19	19640286	Deceleration	39	23
2025-03-21	12.09	10.98	13.89	26259562	Deceleration	48	30
2025-03-14	11.81	10.95	11.94	36256929	Upward Expansion	53	35
2025-03-07	11.46	10.93	5.86	30491268	Upward Expansion	59	60
2025-02-28	11.94	10.85	6.95	23148857	Upward Expansion	61	72
2025-02-21	12.14	10.78	7.61	25210918	Rotation Up	52	56
2025-02-14	13.16	10.75	13.98	37161753	Rotation Up	42	44
2025-02-07	12.25	10.68	6.85	38773903	Downward Expansion	20	25
2025-01-31	11.77	10.64	1.61	46848455	Downward Expansion	-15	11
2025-01-24	9.46	10.58	-20.48	18844535	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2025-01-17	9.39	10.58	-23.31	23910250	Downward Expansion	-62	67
2025-01-10	8.84	10.57	-28.79	20657163	Rotation Down	-70	74
2025-01-03	9.51	10.58	-27.89	21198918	Rotation Down	-32	54
2024-12-27	8.99	10.58	-35.06	21557823	Balance	-32	46
2024-12-20	9.01	10.60	-37.04	60222695	Balance	-29	21
2024-12-13	10.88	10.63	-28.11	20764690	Upward Expansion	41	28
2024-12-06	11.38	10.63	-28.10	29210769	Upward Expansion	43	30
2024-11-29	11.90	10.60	-26.52	20476422	Upward Expansion	51	28
2024-11-22	11.63	10.55	-29.57	22039535	Upward Expansion	37	16
2024-11-15	10.60	10.46	-36.54	26829222	Upward Expansion	21	16
2024-11-08	10.98	10.39	-37.47	44669952	Upward Expansion	29	13
2024-11-01	10.33	10.31	-40.10	28924801	Upward Expansion	27	16
2024-10-25	10.49	10.27	-41.81	43866391	Upward Expansion	46	26
2024-10-18	12.11	10.24	-35.37	24626034	Upward Expansion	63	50
2024-10-11	11.71	10.19	-38.77	19286009	Balance	57	40
2024-10-04	10.84	10.19	-44.35	19573417	Balance	48	26
2024-09-27	11.40	10.16	-43.13	29440734	Balance	55	35
2024-09-20	11.38	10.14	-44.66	58894412	Balance	56	34
2024-09-13	10.54	10.20	-49.49	42300232	Balance	46	34
2024-09-06	10.75	10.34	-47.99	15433847	Balance	19	27
2024-08-30	10.77	10.46	-51.47	19169106	Balance	19	12
2024-08-23	11.22	10.69	-50.78	26972216	Balance	8	7
2024-08-16	10.97	11.34	-52.51	31293148	Balance	-5	6
2024-08-09	9.29	11.95	-59.29	33015791	Balance	-29	13
2024-08-02	9.84	12.62	-58.09	37611621	Balance	-15	14
2024-07-26	11.15	13.32	-54.92	44553577	Balance	-6	14
2024-07-19	11.11	13.95	-56.67	51487615	Downward Expansion	-15	14
2024-07-12	10.94	14.56	-59.12	61874774	Downward Expansion	-32	27
2024-07-05	9.98	15.27	-63.14	43127146	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2024-06-28	9.60	15.89	-64.68	181178591	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2024-06-21	9.12	16.55	-67.16	58381409	Downward Expansion	-67	73
2024-06-14	9.09	17.14	-67.71	72471484	Downward Expansion	-71	65
2024-06-07	9.30	17.75	-67.07	58006268	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2024-05-31	9.77	18.35	-65.65	45476210	Downward Expansion	-49	48
2024-05-24	9.89	18.97	-66.03	50547458	Downward Expansion	-48	46
2024-05-17	10.96	19.54	-63.05	84629136	Downward Expansion	-51	52
2024-05-10	10.25	20.14	-65.53	70215546	Downward Expansion	-55	62
2024-05-03	10.49	20.81	-64.68	187058246	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2024-04-26	8.82	21.52	-70.60	67659726	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2024-04-19	8.76	22.31	-70.56	66561219	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2024-04-12	8.44	23.09	-72.91	102933741	Downward Expansion	-73	67
2024-04-05	9.27	23.94	-71.07	93392753	Downward Expansion	-72	67
2024-03-29	9.57	24.77	-70.80	112871920	Downward Expansion	-73	68
2024-03-22	10.52	25.64	-68.22	111171619	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2024-03-15	11.59	26.43	-64.68	238186289	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2024-03-08	10.16	27.17	-69.27	538261367	Downward Expansion	-79	91
2024-03-01	10.55	28.06	-68.50	191584452	Downward Expansion	-83	94
2024-02-23	13.43	29.00	-59.97	64324623	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2024-02-16	14.56	29.85	-56.36	185579063	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2024-02-09	14.40	30.52	-57.43	523939459	Downward Expansion	-91	94
2024-02-02	17.75	31.13	-47.36	335120187	Downward Expansion	-86	77
2024-01-26	30.62	31.62	-8.76	36467829	Balance	-14	9
2024-01-19	29.30	31.67	-11.93	25985426	Balance	-31	15
2024-01-12	29.39	31.69	-10.80	32178233	Balance	-19	12
2024-01-05	30.74	31.72	-5.11	35375619	Downward Expansion	-21	21
2023-12-29	30.06	31.74	-8.65	22582623	Downward Expansion	-28	22
2023-12-22	29.62	31.76	-9.67	57537276	Downward Expansion	-31	24
2023-12-15	32.21	31.77	-0.89	87378588	Downward Expansion	-26	18
2023-12-08	28.62	31.74	-9.69	34448159	Downward Expansion	-51	42
2023-12-01	29.15	31.74	-7.78	40468443	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2023-11-24	26.95	31.72	-14.01	19791891	Downward Expansion	-71	76
2023-11-17	27.27	31.83	-12.28	53644507	Rotation Down	-72	83
2023-11-10	27.33	31.76	-10.20	41376991	Rotation Down	-48	74
2023-11-03	28.51	31.66	-5.29	59647466	Rotation Down	-42	70
2023-10-27	26.77	31.53	-5.86	73666501	Rotation Down	-53	74
2023-10-20	29.17	31.49	-0.00	42122037	Deceleration	-39	52

Price vs TrendBelow-17.6%

Trend directionFalling-0.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-16.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-15.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-22.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-27.4%

Price momentumNegative-19.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.26×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-87 / ±100

-54.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

94 /100

+41.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

FLG Directional State ↗ FLG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance7

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down87

Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2026-09-04	2026-10-02	Developing	-13.5%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-28	Developing	-5.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-07-24	Developing	-5.5%
Deceleration	2026-05-29	2026-06-12	New	+6.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-05-22	Developing	-5.5%
Deceleration	2026-03-13	2026-04-10	Developing	+15.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-03-06	Developing	-5.8%
Balance	2025-12-05	2025-12-12	New	+1.3%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-11-28	New	+9.7%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-07	New	-4.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-10-24	Developing	-4.4%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-09-05	Established	+17.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-06-06	New	-0.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing58

Stage 2 · Advancing1

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining99

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -21.99
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -19.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -34.2%
Financial Services regime cohort: 90th percentile70 in cohort

Test FLG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.45×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.26×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore FLG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 11.92falling

Slow Activity USD 13.55falling

Trend Reference USD 13.73-17.6% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 13.53-16.3% close margin

Structural low USD 11.11shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.3%

Annualized volatility +27.5%

From structural high -26.7%

From structural low +7.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	-1.3%-40.6% to +40.0%	+42.1%	+57.9%	-2.4%	+68.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+7.1%-50.2% to +19.0%	+62.5%	+37.5%	+4.4%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+5.3%-63.3% to +24.8%	+60.0%	+40.0%	-2.9%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-17.0%-58.1% to +15.0%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-9.1%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

FLG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map