Weekly structural research · NYSE · Technology

NOK Stage Analysis

Nokia Corp ADR

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 10.60Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -6−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 9/100directional strength

Maturity 17/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +83.8%USD 5.77 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	10.60	11.17	6.94	314216571	Balance	-6	9
2026-09-25	10.39	11.07	5.61	383863545	Balance	-8	8
2026-09-18	10.68	10.98	11.02	647049158	Balance	-9	9
2026-09-11	11.13	10.88	16.82	354848784	Deceleration	-12	12
2026-09-04	10.03	10.74	5.73	284382528	Deceleration	-17	16
2026-08-28	10.21	10.64	8.77	250802886	Rotation Down	-17	19
2026-08-21	10.21	10.52	10.44	422666149	Rotation Down	-21	33
2026-08-14	10.76	10.40	16.04	404807115	Rotation Down	-24	48
2026-08-07	9.36	10.26	2.30	325973158	Rotation Down	-27	47
2026-07-31	9.14	10.16	4.37	498818731	Deceleration	-31	38
2026-07-24	9.05	10.07	5.51	578581610	Deceleration	-12	26
2026-07-17	10.07	9.99	17.74	566942730	Deceleration	9	19
2026-07-10	12.38	9.87	43.95	326221766	Deceleration	35	24
2026-07-03	12.01	9.66	43.65	285002892	Upward Expansion	42	29
2026-06-26	12.94	9.46	60.37	513256283	Upward Expansion	49	41
2026-06-19	13.49	9.23	65.89	485425474	Upward Expansion	63	56
2026-06-12	14.80	8.98	86.84	599429265	Upward Expansion	68	66
2026-06-05	14.38	8.70	86.39	771984535	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-05-29	14.84	8.45	91.26	545483412	Upward Expansion	75	77
2026-05-22	15.47	8.18	106.50	442608934	Upward Expansion	91	95
2026-05-15	13.95	7.88	92.12	646596524	Upward Expansion	88	94
2026-05-08	12.82	7.60	80.55	564342502	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-05-01	13.30	7.35	95.03	721562284	Upward Expansion	96	98
2026-04-24	10.42	7.07	57.30	564431791	Upward Expansion	83	92
2026-04-17	10.27	6.87	57.75	426441005	Upward Expansion	90	87
2026-04-10	9.42	6.68	52.87	443047409	Upward Expansion	85	67
2026-04-03	8.78	6.52	49.18	250564929	Upward Expansion	81	63
2026-03-27	7.95	6.38	40.85	259365238	Upward Expansion	65	56
2026-03-20	7.95	6.25	38.71	292557572	Upward Expansion	68	61
2026-03-13	8.21	6.13	41.59	312858786	Upward Expansion	83	87
2026-03-06	7.71	5.99	31.91	369214425	Upward Expansion	73	83
2026-02-27	7.69	5.87	29.70	166613299	Upward Expansion	81	88
2026-02-20	7.74	5.75	30.86	248883473	Upward Expansion	89	86
2026-02-13	7.00	5.63	20.58	143101300	Upward Expansion	70	63
2026-02-06	7.04	5.55	20.33	163269098	Upward Expansion	75	54
2026-01-30	6.37	5.48	9.23	266102685	Upward Expansion	57	41
2026-01-23	6.71	5.44	15.93	127217411	Upward Expansion	66	46
2026-01-16	6.49	5.38	12.42	161756922	Upward Expansion	59	43
2026-01-09	6.42	5.33	11.36	179469035	Upward Expansion	58	45
2026-01-02	6.45	5.29	14.10	65964879	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-12-26	6.56	5.25	15.39	58352130	Deceleration	65	46
2025-12-19	6.44	5.20	15.51	107435202	Deceleration	53	38
2025-12-12	6.21	5.16	12.13	103964431	Upward Expansion	44	32
2025-12-05	6.01	5.12	8.42	91004651	Upward Expansion	49	41
2025-11-28	6.02	5.08	9.48	96657022	Upward Expansion	64	56
2025-11-21	5.88	5.05	11.46	264377111	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-11-14	6.67	5.01	24.49	220679036	Upward Expansion	73	90
2025-11-07	6.78	4.95	27.48	214229410	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-10-31	6.84	4.89	27.53	788240004	Rotation Up	95	98
2025-10-24	6.21	4.81	17.14	326752463	Rotation Up	69	89
2025-10-17	5.66	4.77	9.11	228992355	Rotation Up	56	76
2025-10-10	5.25	4.76	3.06	206853302	Downward Expansion	48	47
2025-10-03	4.83	4.75	-7.20	190390952	Downward Expansion	-1	21
2025-09-26	4.60	4.76	-10.78	172615984	Downward Expansion	-26	29
2025-09-19	4.67	4.76	-9.60	160186765	Downward Expansion	-28	27
2025-09-12	4.45	4.76	-12.98	129967452	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2025-09-05	4.49	4.78	-10.92	128107275	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2025-08-29	4.24	4.78	-15.67	81388421	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2025-08-22	4.25	4.79	-15.73	90640129	Downward Expansion	-66	87
2025-08-15	4.14	4.79	-17.76	67607052	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2025-08-08	4.04	4.80	-19.04	82901447	Rotation Down	-82	93
2025-08-01	3.99	4.81	-18.15	107138429	Rotation Down	-64	83
2025-07-25	4.22	4.82	-15.66	193774256	Rotation Down	-51	66
2025-07-18	4.63	4.82	-6.12	116013556	Balance	-12	19
2025-07-11	4.86	4.81	-0.70	97830804	Upward Expansion	19	14
2025-07-04	5.06	4.79	3.45	56426044	Upward Expansion	36	19
2025-06-27	5.04	4.76	5.15	94402244	Upward Expansion	40	25
2025-06-20	5.00	4.72	8.37	62652011	Upward Expansion	53	34
2025-06-13	5.06	4.69	10.00	56881298	Upward Expansion	59	51
2025-06-06	5.28	4.66	14.85	65467661	Upward Expansion	70	66
2025-05-30	5.09	4.63	13.16	60738434	Upward Expansion	57	53
2025-05-23	5.21	4.61	18.28	80565010	Upward Expansion	68	54
2025-05-16	5.06	4.59	12.62	78107431	Upward Expansion	60	36
2025-05-09	4.96	4.58	16.72	89838713	Deceleration	54	31
2025-05-02	4.89	4.55	15.07	75780418	Deceleration	36	21
2025-04-25	4.82	4.52	17.32	155787613	Deceleration	36	21
2025-04-18	4.94	4.50	26.28	70780733	Upward Expansion	44	25
2025-04-11	4.79	4.47	21.68	134036660	Upward Expansion	45	31
2025-04-04	4.62	4.45	24.83	112872131	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-03-28	5.04	4.43	24.63	79367910	Upward Expansion	65	79
2025-03-21	5.13	4.40	26.04	77971395	Upward Expansion	77	83
2025-03-14	5.15	4.36	28.04	123008958	Upward Expansion	84	87
2025-03-07	5.05	4.32	23.55	203623879	Upward Expansion	85	85
2025-02-28	4.64	4.27	10.53	106235209	Upward Expansion	65	76
2025-02-21	4.77	4.24	13.05	74464129	Upward Expansion	77	83
2025-02-14	4.82	4.20	12.78	100609980	Upward Expansion	83	75
2025-02-07	4.65	4.16	10.69	91226680	Deceleration	76	58
2025-01-31	4.42	4.13	5.25	140417325	Deceleration	60	37
2025-01-24	4.33	4.10	2.30	70662029	Deceleration	53	36
2025-01-17	4.33	4.08	4.01	97402986	Deceleration	46	36
2025-01-10	4.34	4.05	7.48	52825337	Deceleration	44	29
2025-01-03	4.30	4.02	4.63	36815999	Deceleration	41	28
2024-12-27	4.30	4.00	4.20	29741572	Deceleration	39	22
2024-12-20	4.25	3.98	3.84	69004608	Deceleration	21	14
2024-12-13	4.30	3.96	3.24	76849523	Deceleration	29	25
2024-12-06	4.07	3.94	-2.70	67273570	Deceleration	18	25
2024-11-29	4.03	3.92	-2.72	52107404	Deceleration	24	24
2024-11-22	4.01	3.90	-2.16	148466310	Upward Expansion	36	26
2024-11-15	4.28	3.88	5.96	79413953	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-11-08	4.37	3.85	5.82	76805354	Upward Expansion	67	78
2024-11-01	4.54	3.81	15.19	104161241	Upward Expansion	76	88
2024-10-25	4.58	3.77	14.72	119356494	Upward Expansion	86	88
2024-10-18	4.53	3.72	12.53	169939874	Upward Expansion	88	74
2024-10-11	4.16	3.68	4.39	53496867	Upward Expansion	66	54
2024-10-04	4.15	3.66	5.24	72049183	Upward Expansion	68	55
2024-09-27	4.17	3.63	5.86	113550388	Upward Expansion	72	57
2024-09-20	4.08	3.61	4.02	135353889	Upward Expansion	67	75
2024-09-13	4.00	3.58	3.18	108598044	Upward Expansion	65	79
2024-09-06	4.04	3.56	8.01	85110421	Upward Expansion	67	80
2024-08-30	4.25	3.53	8.62	101684707	Upward Expansion	89	86
2024-08-23	3.98	3.50	1.65	50653811	Upward Expansion	76	69
2024-08-16	3.85	3.49	-0.39	56790894	Upward Expansion	70	49
2024-08-09	3.63	3.47	-2.62	58910995	Upward Expansion	47	24
2024-08-02	3.67	3.45	-1.93	77278108	Upward Expansion	56	33
2024-07-26	3.66	3.44	-4.59	57930065	Upward Expansion	57	36
2024-07-19	3.45	3.42	-11.16	99573939	Upward Expansion	44	30
2024-07-12	3.77	3.41	-5.24	70795414	Deceleration	73	44
2024-07-05	3.69	3.39	-6.85	46943233	Deceleration	54	26
2024-06-28	3.57	3.36	-8.50	69968703	Upward Expansion	42	23
2024-06-21	3.48	3.35	-11.46	37871657	Upward Expansion	45	30
2024-06-14	3.42	3.34	-12.83	54115050	Upward Expansion	60	43
2024-06-07	3.70	3.34	-4.97	50570802	Upward Expansion	71	79
2024-05-31	3.69	3.32	-4.44	50114513	Upward Expansion	73	79
2024-05-24	3.64	3.31	-6.47	54054544	Upward Expansion	71	79
2024-05-17	3.70	3.29	-5.50	101347103	Upward Expansion	81	81
2024-05-10	3.52	3.26	-9.07	38586163	Balance	66	64
2024-05-03	3.49	3.25	-8.65	64177541	Balance	60	37
2024-04-26	3.45	3.24	-9.66	83128514	Balance	34	17
2024-04-19	3.29	3.24	-12.16	116800743	Balance	-7	14
2024-04-12	3.11	3.25	-20.01	67395768	Balance	-13	16
2024-04-05	3.26	3.27	-18.38	63069852	Upward Expansion	31	15
2024-03-29	3.31	3.28	-18.87	51977316	Upward Expansion	22	24
2024-03-22	3.35	3.30	-18.60	89280063	Upward Expansion	24	26
2024-03-15	3.45	3.30	-15.11	82433184	Balance	35	28
2024-03-08	3.38	3.30	-17.54	69180742	Balance	27	17
2024-03-01	3.33	3.31	-19.95	58519716	Balance	11	10
2024-02-23	3.31	3.32	-20.46	45471221	Balance	11	12
2024-02-16	3.32	3.33	-19.67	71740671	Balance	14	21
2024-02-09	3.35	3.34	-19.80	59859600	Balance	14	24
2024-02-02	3.32	3.34	-20.29	84646939	Balance	-7	18
2024-01-26	3.54	3.36	-14.51	131541886	Downward Expansion	13	20
2024-01-19	3.18	3.37	-23.03	57075211	Downward Expansion	-31	18
2024-01-12	3.26	3.38	-20.78	62700429	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2024-01-05	3.19	3.40	-21.94	52801778	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2023-12-29	3.17	3.42	-24.36	51076982	Downward Expansion	-55	41
2023-12-22	3.11	3.44	-26.13	75722739	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2023-12-15	3.02	3.45	-28.37	82809900	Downward Expansion	-64	44
2023-12-08	2.95	3.48	-29.14	177050553	Downward Expansion	-72	41
2023-12-01	3.23	3.50	-22.86	52678189	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2023-11-24	3.29	3.52	-21.59	24885451	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2023-11-17	3.30	3.53	-21.19	43017641	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2023-11-10	3.23	3.55	-21.56	67887950	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2023-11-03	3.21	3.59	-21.74	82049058	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2023-10-27	3.01	3.63	-22.70	119411276	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2023-10-20	2.92	3.68	-27.44	147092513	Downward Expansion	-93	96
2023-10-13	3.22	3.72	-22.36	107124583	Downward Expansion	-84	87

Price vs TrendBelow-5.1%

Trend directionRising+10.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+83.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-47.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+6.9%

Relative strength directionWeakening-36.7%

Price momentumPositive+20.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.77×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-6 / ±100

+10.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

9 /100

-7.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NOK Directional State ↗ NOK Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance66

Rotation Up35

Upward Expansion24

Deceleration47

Rotation Down20

Downward Expansion26

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 52%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 16%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	-0.7%
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-09-11	New	+11.0%
Rotation Down	2026-08-07	2026-08-28	New	+9.1%
Deceleration	2026-07-10	2026-07-31	New	-26.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-07-03	Extended	+86.2%
Deceleration	2025-12-19	2025-12-26	New	+1.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-07	2025-12-12	Developing	-8.3%
Rotation Up	2025-10-17	2025-10-31	New	+20.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-10-10	Developing	+26.7%
Rotation Down	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	-4.3%
Balance	2025-07-18	2025-07-18	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-07-11	Developing	-4.0%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-09	New	+2.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-14	2025-04-18	Developing	+2.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing14

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution64

Stage 4 · Declining27

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 40/100
Current Relative Strength: 6.94
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +20.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +3.0%
Technology regime cohort: 36th percentile33 in cohort

Test NOK trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.70×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.77×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NOK Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 10.59rising

Slow Activity USD 11.19falling

Trend Reference USD 11.17-5.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 5.77+83.8% close margin

Structural low USD 8.37shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +12.6%

Annualized volatility +63.4%

From structural high -39.3%

From structural low +118.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	-0.6%-12.8% to +13.0%	+45.5%	+45.5%	-2.9%	+45.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+5.1%-14.6% to +22.2%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-0.2%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-6.6%-12.4% to +40.1%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-2.4%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+8.4%-16.7% to +117.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+0.2%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NOK Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map