Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Financial Services

BCAL Stage Analysis

Southern California Bancorp Common Stock

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 21.23Tenure EstablishedBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 53−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 33/100directional strength

Maturity 63/100lifecycle context

Confidence 57/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +28.6%USD 16.50 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	21.23	20.06	-3.89	791453	Upward Expansion	53	33
2026-10-02	21.78	19.93	-1.12	992959	Upward Expansion	58	40
2026-09-25	21.64	19.80	-1.03	1331003	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-09-18	21.68	19.69	2.48	1603989	Upward Expansion	59	42
2026-09-11	21.69	19.59	3.56	857091	Upward Expansion	61	44
2026-09-04	21.78	19.50	3.48	843635	Upward Expansion	67	48
2026-08-28	21.15	19.40	0.91	637552	Upward Expansion	59	44
2026-08-21	21.24	19.30	1.78	837816	Upward Expansion	62	49
2026-08-14	21.68	19.20	1.31	732326	Upward Expansion	72	56
2026-08-07	21.25	19.09	0.54	797716	Upward Expansion	67	55
2026-07-31	21.30	18.99	6.12	1191551	Upward Expansion	71	64
2026-07-24	21.02	18.89	5.64	1515601	Upward Expansion	68	73
2026-07-17	21.23	18.82	5.17	1199833	Upward Expansion	77	83
2026-07-10	20.66	18.75	-1.81	762175	Upward Expansion	69	78
2026-07-03	20.86	18.72	0.91	716289	Upward Expansion	79	81
2026-06-26	20.83	18.67	1.61	2360992	Upward Expansion	84	78
2026-06-19	19.64	18.61	-8.42	1090986	Rotation Up	66	60
2026-06-12	19.67	18.58	-5.88	965476	Rotation Up	44	45
2026-06-05	19.17	18.55	-6.18	789976	Rotation Up	32	23
2026-05-29	18.89	18.53	-11.74	537080	Rotation Up	19	25
2026-05-22	18.93	18.51	-9.17	744430	Balance	22	31
2026-05-15	18.51	18.46	-10.24	1008754	Balance	17	29
2026-05-08	19.16	18.37	-7.55	843765	Balance	38	39
2026-05-01	18.75	18.26	-4.72	787206	Balance	19	22
2026-04-24	18.38	18.20	-5.29	784755	Balance	7	14
2026-04-17	18.80	18.15	-1.06	903386	Balance	12	10
2026-04-10	18.38	18.10	2.75	1312932	Rotation Down	-17	17
2026-04-03	17.76	18.05	3.95	698973	Rotation Down	-30	46
2026-03-27	17.52	18.02	6.71	1066671	Rotation Down	-29	48
2026-03-20	17.22	17.99	1.55	1774515	Deceleration	-28	41
2026-03-13	17.42	17.98	0.65	753634	Deceleration	-23	25
2026-03-06	17.86	17.92	2.03	733306	Deceleration	4	4
2026-02-27	18.21	17.83	2.61	1071158	Deceleration	30	22
2026-02-20	18.85	17.71	5.90	712702	Deceleration	41	25
2026-02-13	18.76	17.61	6.67	793278	Deceleration	38	20
2026-02-06	19.05	17.52	7.01	1488830	Deceleration	44	19
2026-01-30	17.89	17.42	-1.46	2667803	Deceleration	20	19
2026-01-23	18.29	17.37	0.41	842820	Deceleration	29	23
2026-01-16	18.45	17.27	1.66	982686	Deceleration	34	23
2026-01-09	18.15	17.14	-0.85	1186257	Upward Expansion	40	25
2026-01-02	18.44	17.01	2.99	608437	Upward Expansion	48	39
2025-12-26	18.77	16.88	2.95	515000	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-12-19	19.29	16.75	6.96	1845263	Upward Expansion	65	58
2025-12-12	19.56	16.59	9.04	1639880	Upward Expansion	74	70
2025-12-05	19.43	16.43	6.13	560645	Upward Expansion	76	82
2025-11-28	19.20	16.26	5.79	421644	Upward Expansion	76	84
2025-11-21	18.65	16.12	7.60	591765	Upward Expansion	68	82
2025-11-14	18.83	15.94	5.04	622055	Upward Expansion	77	83
2025-11-07	18.64	15.73	3.54	1001389	Upward Expansion	77	68
2025-10-31	18.29	15.51	-1.62	1410507	Deceleration	72	41
2025-10-24	17.16	15.31	-5.94	501169	Deceleration	47	24
2025-10-17	15.82	15.22	-11.45	512596	Upward Expansion	33	18
2025-10-10	16.08	15.18	-7.91	466188	Upward Expansion	45	33
2025-10-03	16.95	15.13	-5.18	795632	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-09-26	16.75	15.08	-5.25	463746	Upward Expansion	63	68
2025-09-19	17.24	15.05	-3.01	538984	Upward Expansion	71	75
2025-09-12	17.01	15.00	-2.33	1082464	Upward Expansion	70	76
2025-09-05	16.91	14.97	-1.19	390984	Upward Expansion	69	72
2025-08-29	16.66	14.94	-1.93	320733	Deceleration	68	58
2025-08-22	16.68	14.93	-2.18	392544	Deceleration	68	34
2025-08-15	15.86	14.87	-7.99	493054	Deceleration	45	22
2025-08-08	15.05	14.84	-12.37	505890	Rotation Up	37	20
2025-08-01	14.44	14.83	-13.11	796710	Rotation Up	44	31
2025-07-25	15.87	14.88	-7.11	1050761	Rotation Up	35	62
2025-07-18	16.18	14.90	-4.69	819346	Rotation Up	40	64
2025-07-11	16.02	14.92	-4.54	456392	Rotation Up	29	53
2025-07-04	16.35	14.96	-2.89	533868	Balance	36	44
2025-06-27	15.45	15.00	-6.74	1175453	Balance	2	7
2025-06-20	14.37	15.07	-9.60	232038	Balance	-24	11
2025-06-13	14.24	15.18	-10.42	465926	Balance	-15	11
2025-06-06	14.61	15.28	-8.66	568361	Balance	-11	14
2025-05-30	14.78	15.34	-5.75	228808	Downward Expansion	-20	20
2025-05-23	14.59	15.33	-5.28	526001	Downward Expansion	-25	25
2025-05-16	14.84	15.31	-6.07	358363	Downward Expansion	-29	25
2025-05-09	14.41	15.29	-2.65	402618	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-05-02	14.73	15.27	-0.81	448018	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2025-04-25	13.54	15.24	-5.80	674625	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2025-04-18	12.50	15.27	-7.69	338850	Downward Expansion	-71	82
2025-04-11	12.03	15.35	-13.51	523874	Downward Expansion	-84	85
2025-04-04	12.31	15.42	-5.17	766316	Rotation Down	-84	78
2025-03-28	14.22	15.49	-1.50	576074	Rotation Down	-40	50
2025-03-21	14.58	15.51	-1.58	834728	Deceleration	-35	40
2025-03-14	14.76	15.52	-0.29	570771	Deceleration	-22	24
2025-03-07	15.43	15.50	1.48	608747	Deceleration	19	9
2025-02-28	15.82	15.46	0.39	616535	Deceleration	27	15
2025-02-21	15.67	15.44	-4.11	176964	Deceleration	26	18
2025-02-14	16.17	15.42	-3.51	329853	Deceleration	28	14
2025-02-07	15.91	15.37	-2.61	482793	Deceleration	10	13
2025-01-31	16.42	15.29	0.36	516153	Deceleration	15	22
2025-01-24	14.84	15.18	-10.89	147335	Deceleration	-23	31
2025-01-17	15.00	15.13	-9.13	211326	Deceleration	8	23
2025-01-10	14.75	15.07	-8.71	387521	Deceleration	10	20
2025-01-03	16.01	15.01	-3.77	224154	Upward Expansion	43	30
2024-12-27	16.57	14.92	-1.89	177584	Upward Expansion	50	44
2024-12-20	16.56	14.82	-1.67	480206	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-12-13	17.42	14.74	0.55	296863	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-12-06	17.45	14.62	1.00	241992	Upward Expansion	70	89
2024-11-29	17.73	14.50	5.59	216674	Upward Expansion	82	93
2024-11-22	17.57	14.38	5.24	249801	Upward Expansion	88	95
2024-11-15	17.07	14.26	3.97	368479	Upward Expansion	85	85
2024-11-08	16.60	14.15	-2.62	640927	Upward Expansion	76	64
2024-11-01	14.46	14.07	-10.74	590914	Balance	16	11
2024-10-25	13.90	14.07	-16.01	219891	Balance	-12	15
2024-10-18	14.18	14.10	-14.65	223411	Balance	13	12
2024-10-11	13.83	14.11	-17.17	251506	Balance	16	11
2024-10-04	13.97	14.14	-15.86	300320	Balance	24	13
2024-09-27	14.53	14.20	-12.93	253094	Balance	36	17
2024-09-20	14.62	14.21	-11.94	505433	Balance	12	10
2024-09-13	14.29	14.22	-13.12	348641	Balance	10	10
2024-09-06	14.51	14.24	-7.08	206811	Balance	21	15
2024-08-30	14.81	14.27	-11.01	257957	Balance	26	17
2024-08-23	14.76	14.30	-12.41	376417	Balance	18	17
2024-08-16	14.24	14.36	-15.05	353051	Rotation Up	15	20
2024-08-09	14.20	14.43	-11.15	676268	Rotation Up	15	25
2024-08-02	15.13	14.52	-5.45	689782	Downward Expansion	28	33
2024-07-26	15.13	14.58	-8.73	380206	Downward Expansion	9	19
2024-07-19	14.53	14.64	-14.94	529916	Downward Expansion	-20	14
2024-07-12	13.73	14.72	-23.17	374357	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2024-07-05	13.13	14.82	-27.20	203035	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2024-06-28	13.32	14.89	-23.95	1953787	Downward Expansion	-62	60
2024-06-21	12.96	14.94	-26.44	210237	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2024-06-14	13.06	15.00	-26.19	251240	Downward Expansion	-74	66
2024-06-07	13.20	15.06	-23.21	295966	Downward Expansion	-74	51
2024-05-31	13.77	15.08	-18.19	191589	Downward Expansion	-62	45
2024-05-24	13.97	15.09	-18.67	209213	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-05-17	14.00	15.07	-17.76	150787	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2024-05-10	13.82	15.08	-17.45	186453	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2024-05-03	14.04	15.10	-15.38	120742	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2024-04-26	13.99	15.11	-15.14	113769	Rotation Down	-67	65
2024-04-19	13.93	15.11	-12.73	137044	Rotation Down	-45	54
2024-04-12	14.20	15.13	-16.43	195241	Rotation Down	-40	45
2024-04-05	14.36	15.15	-16.58	138104	Rotation Down	-31	40
2024-03-29	14.75	15.16	-15.53	212595	Rotation Down	-23	25
2024-03-22	14.58	15.16	-17.41	424091	Rotation Down	-29	33
2024-03-15	14.70	15.16	-14.87	406032	Deceleration	-30	34
2024-03-08	15.61	15.15	-11.46	110391	Deceleration	0	20
2024-03-01	15.00	15.13	-17.03	147381	Deceleration	-21	33
2024-02-23	14.88	15.13	-16.97	72366	Deceleration	3	24
2024-02-16	14.84	15.14	-16.93	160450	Deceleration	5	20
2024-02-09	15.34	15.13	-16.22	254342	Deceleration	30	23
2024-02-02	15.88	15.12	-12.54	233069	Upward Expansion	45	34
2024-01-26	16.42	15.05	-9.18	70469	Upward Expansion	61	51
2024-01-19	16.52	14.96	-8.79	60707	Upward Expansion	64	68
2024-01-12	16.82	14.87	-5.32	50452	Upward Expansion	67	83
2024-01-05	16.84	14.79	-2.86	88440	Upward Expansion	70	85
2023-12-29	17.16	14.69	-4.93	42023	Upward Expansion	82	88
2023-12-22	16.91	14.57	-6.84	373097	Upward Expansion	85	84
2023-12-15	16.60	14.46	-8.54	744144	Upward Expansion	81	74
2023-12-08	15.34	14.36	-13.35	129428	Balance	63	44
2023-12-01	14.86	14.31	-16.32	71524	Balance	40	25
2023-11-24	14.78	14.25	-17.31	26768	Balance	38	18
2023-11-17	14.79	14.24	-17.22	43265	Balance	2	8
2023-11-10	13.84	14.26	-21.59	51363	Balance	-13	27
2023-11-03	14.04	14.31	-18.79	33003	Balance	-11	26
2023-10-27	13.24	14.31	-19.12	55407	Balance	-27	31
2023-10-20	14.33	14.35	-15.42	100538	Balance	-4	9

Price vs TrendAbove+5.8%

Trend directionRising+5.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+28.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.9%

Relative strength directionWeakening-2.1%

Price momentumPositive+15.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.59×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

53 / ±100

-8.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

33 /100

-10.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BCAL Directional State ↗ BCAL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance22

Rotation Up43

Upward Expansion77

Deceleration67

Rotation Down26

Downward Expansion4

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 32%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 14%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-10-09	Established	+1.9%
Rotation Up	2026-05-29	2026-06-19	New	+4.0%
Balance	2026-04-17	2026-05-22	Developing	+0.7%
Rotation Down	2026-03-27	2026-04-10	New	+4.9%
Deceleration	2026-01-16	2026-03-20	Developing	-6.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-07	2026-01-09	Developing	-2.6%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-10-31	New	+6.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-10-17	Developing	-6.5%
Deceleration	2025-08-15	2025-08-29	New	+5.1%
Rotation Up	2025-07-11	2025-08-08	Developing	-6.0%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-07-04	Developing	+11.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-05-30	Developing	+22.9%
Rotation Down	2025-03-28	2025-04-04	New	-13.4%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-03-21	Developing	-1.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing13

Stage 2 · Advancing81

Stage 3 · Distribution66

Stage 4 · Declining19

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 25/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.89
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +15.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -7.4%
Financial Services regime cohort: 20th percentile107 in cohort

Test BCAL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.77×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.59×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BCAL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 21.55rising

Slow Activity USD 20.83rising

Trend Reference USD 20.06+5.8% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 16.50+28.6% close margin

Structural low USD 17.83shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.6%

Annualized volatility +14.6%

From structural high -4.7%

From structural low +35.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	25	+0.9%-14.6% to +8.6%	+64.0%	+64.0%	-1.9%	+76.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-2.6%-11.4% to +14.9%	+44.4%	+44.4%	-4.1%	+44.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-4.5%-21.3% to +6.3%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-8.4%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+5.1%-6.7% to +12.3%	+75.0%	+75.0%	-15.4%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BCAL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map