Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Consumer Defensive

MNST Stage Analysis

Monster Beverage Corp

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 42.94Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Momentum cooling

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -26−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 42/100directional strength

Maturity 40/100lifecycle context

Confidence 73/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +33.4%USD 32.19 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	42.94	43.55	-8.58	55310308	Deceleration	-26	42
2026-09-25	43.11	43.37	-7.55	46065937	Deceleration	-7	26
2026-09-18	44.71	43.36	-0.87	54304906	Deceleration	7	19
2026-09-11	43.40	43.27	-2.64	36889075	Deceleration	-3	12
2026-09-04	43.82	43.18	-2.09	51350300	Deceleration	21	13
2026-08-28	46.86	43.09	5.29	37695227	Deceleration	39	24
2026-08-21	47.79	42.88	8.18	59680241	Deceleration	48	32
2026-08-14	46.82	42.65	3.71	41640424	Deceleration	44	30
2026-08-07	45.18	42.39	1.43	33555782	Upward Expansion	49	39
2026-07-31	48.19	42.17	13.92	25808936	Upward Expansion	65	54
2026-07-24	46.74	41.84	11.69	23945602	Upward Expansion	66	60
2026-07-17	48.75	41.57	15.14	34460378	Upward Expansion	72	80
2026-07-10	48.70	41.21	10.84	28087152	Upward Expansion	75	85
2026-07-03	48.80	40.82	13.59	21236172	Upward Expansion	82	89
2026-06-26	48.19	40.43	13.55	33867595	Upward Expansion	86	91
2026-06-19	45.67	40.07	3.16	26458937	Upward Expansion	72	84
2026-06-12	46.42	39.75	7.70	29007856	Upward Expansion	83	88
2026-06-05	44.78	39.39	6.44	28537399	Upward Expansion	74	84
2026-05-29	44.04	39.06	0.09	24692634	Upward Expansion	73	79
2026-05-22	43.40	38.70	1.41	21360661	Upward Expansion	71	74
2026-05-15	43.54	38.42	2.93	30615393	Deceleration	75	64
2026-05-08	43.14	38.14	1.68	36520021	Deceleration	62	41
2026-05-01	38.56	37.86	-4.19	18284436	Deceleration	25	18
2026-04-24	39.12	37.69	-1.45	22750413	Deceleration	23	13
2026-04-17	38.36	37.48	-1.33	23952621	Deceleration	-17	24
2026-04-10	37.86	37.27	3.18	22790332	Deceleration	-22	33
2026-04-03	36.18	37.09	2.93	20694789	Deceleration	-28	39
2026-03-27	35.92	36.92	6.03	21705876	Deceleration	-14	32
2026-03-20	36.84	36.76	5.33	30037352	Deceleration	10	18
2026-03-13	38.56	36.58	8.17	30825363	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-03-06	37.80	36.38	5.24	34004809	Upward Expansion	55	45
2026-02-27	42.65	36.19	17.51	41149688	Upward Expansion	83	80
2026-02-20	41.88	35.76	15.71	27282641	Upward Expansion	79	81
2026-02-13	40.74	35.37	14.52	29381016	Upward Expansion	69	81
2026-02-06	41.27	35.00	15.35	42412304	Upward Expansion	81	89
2026-01-30	40.38	34.60	11.48	24802398	Upward Expansion	75	78
2026-01-23	41.00	34.31	13.72	26073454	Upward Expansion	87	76
2026-01-16	39.08	33.97	9.39	32356264	Upward Expansion	74	70
2026-01-09	38.67	33.72	7.85	22588527	Upward Expansion	73	71
2026-01-02	38.08	33.48	9.00	13769076	Upward Expansion	68	68
2025-12-26	38.66	33.27	9.16	12717336	Upward Expansion	79	78
2025-12-19	38.13	33.04	9.43	36964332	Upward Expansion	79	82
2025-12-12	36.98	32.83	7.16	25694806	Upward Expansion	69	77
2025-12-05	36.87	32.64	5.17	25797700	Upward Expansion	70	78
2025-11-28	37.50	32.43	8.37	21723224	Upward Expansion	84	81
2025-11-21	36.02	32.18	9.49	25392786	Upward Expansion	74	55
2025-11-14	35.66	31.96	5.30	31693385	Upward Expansion	74	54
2025-11-07	34.86	31.74	3.03	39315348	Upward Expansion	69	55
2025-10-31	33.42	31.55	-4.15	26935422	Upward Expansion	64	67
2025-10-24	34.84	31.39	1.86	21119341	Upward Expansion	71	79
2025-10-17	35.11	31.19	4.96	28122814	Upward Expansion	79	81
2025-10-10	34.81	30.98	6.73	27249744	Upward Expansion	81	77
2025-10-03	33.58	30.73	0.87	24562669	Upward Expansion	71	61
2025-09-26	32.67	30.53	-0.58	19085438	Upward Expansion	61	38
2025-09-19	32.06	30.35	-2.84	38456993	Upward Expansion	54	32
2025-09-12	32.34	30.17	0.14	21950691	Upward Expansion	60	34
2025-09-05	31.23	29.91	-1.49	16939652	Upward Expansion	48	37
2025-08-29	31.20	29.65	-0.60	25024057	Upward Expansion	51	42
2025-08-22	31.42	29.42	-0.02	23789994	Upward Expansion	49	38
2025-08-15	32.32	29.18	2.11	30710045	Deceleration	54	37
2025-08-08	32.34	28.92	2.92	47753250	Deceleration	42	19
2025-08-01	29.51	28.67	-2.43	36120599	Deceleration	0	19
2025-07-25	30.33	28.56	-2.09	19256180	Deceleration	24	23
2025-07-18	29.50	28.43	-3.96	26443580	Deceleration	23	24
2025-07-11	29.42	28.31	-3.06	31471481	Upward Expansion	34	25
2025-07-04	31.54	28.20	3.61	19983129	Upward Expansion	53	47
2025-06-27	30.86	28.02	3.09	30230711	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-06-20	31.54	27.91	9.93	34951229	Upward Expansion	65	69
2025-06-13	31.53	27.76	10.18	26109623	Upward Expansion	67	83
2025-06-06	31.70	27.58	10.54	24512602	Upward Expansion	70	87
2025-05-30	31.98	27.42	13.90	26240488	Upward Expansion	79	90
2025-05-23	31.68	27.23	15.19	23010548	Upward Expansion	80	88
2025-05-16	31.43	27.06	11.76	32096288	Upward Expansion	81	78
2025-05-09	30.50	26.92	15.91	28477934	Upward Expansion	75	67
2025-05-02	30.02	26.76	13.88	21061370	Upward Expansion	74	62
2025-04-25	29.34	26.60	15.01	21635011	Upward Expansion	68	54
2025-04-18	29.20	26.50	21.83	19798088	Upward Expansion	70	65
2025-04-11	29.08	26.38	18.59	50679953	Upward Expansion	71	73
2025-04-04	28.54	26.26	25.18	34180692	Upward Expansion	67	74
2025-03-28	28.93	26.12	14.52	24588107	Upward Expansion	77	80
2025-03-21	28.66	25.94	10.57	26896820	Rotation Up	77	77
2025-03-14	27.54	25.76	6.27	29606034	Rotation Up	56	48
2025-03-07	27.54	25.62	3.15	36373101	Balance	48	41
2025-02-28	27.32	25.47	-1.35	43243117	Balance	22	17
2025-02-21	26.50	25.42	-7.99	29369766	Rotation Down	1	12
2025-02-14	24.62	25.39	-16.81	24782085	Rotation Down	-35	55
2025-02-07	23.28	25.42	-19.57	32202053	Rotation Down	-50	66
2025-01-31	24.36	25.49	-16.34	33857905	Rotation Down	-28	52
2025-01-24	24.14	25.50	-18.73	33050042	Balance	-33	48
2025-01-17	24.71	25.53	-16.14	36779318	Balance	-25	29
2025-01-10	24.87	25.53	-13.79	18544456	Balance	-4	12
2025-01-03	26.20	25.50	-11.89	15207753	Balance	29	16
2024-12-27	26.28	25.50	-12.95	12030599	Upward Expansion	32	18
2024-12-20	25.86	25.49	-14.13	32424369	Upward Expansion	36	19
2024-12-13	26.38	25.51	-14.90	22646688	Upward Expansion	42	28
2024-12-06	26.14	25.53	-15.56	23711907	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-11-29	27.56	25.58	-8.60	17675667	Upward Expansion	69	54
2024-11-22	27.03	25.58	-10.18	22158803	Rotation Up	63	39
2024-11-15	26.00	25.57	-12.50	38966989	Rotation Up	28	29
2024-11-08	27.07	25.59	-12.55	42413548	Rotation Up	42	57
2024-11-01	26.15	25.60	-11.48	27975568	Rotation Up	29	36
2024-10-25	26.68	25.66	-11.74	16632653	Rotation Up	27	40
2024-10-18	27.02	25.76	-10.99	34740254	Balance	36	39
2024-10-11	25.66	25.85	-15.74	25060383	Balance	-3	19
2024-10-04	25.48	26.01	-15.66	28570032	Balance	-3	22
2024-09-27	26.23	26.14	-13.50	27584988	Downward Expansion	-1	20
2024-09-20	25.59	26.25	-15.28	40108949	Downward Expansion	-23	18
2024-09-13	25.42	26.32	-15.21	27704962	Downward Expansion	-41	31
2024-09-06	24.32	26.39	-14.62	21768252	Downward Expansion	-60	61
2024-08-30	23.56	26.50	-22.59	24325841	Downward Expansion	-62	73
2024-08-23	23.32	26.64	-24.57	25333641	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2024-08-16	23.37	26.79	-24.32	32655380	Downward Expansion	-72	55
2024-08-09	23.03	26.96	-22.07	60112478	Downward Expansion	-77	47
2024-08-02	25.80	27.18	-13.09	26757636	Downward Expansion	-38	26
2024-07-26	25.50	27.28	-17.17	29189957	Downward Expansion	-44	35
2024-07-19	25.44	27.39	-19.98	26187098	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2024-07-12	25.42	27.47	-23.77	29431668	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2024-07-05	24.88	27.54	-26.11	21496524	Downward Expansion	-65	79
2024-06-28	24.98	27.61	-23.75	39197324	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2024-06-21	24.54	27.70	-25.65	42729105	Downward Expansion	-78	84
2024-06-14	24.02	27.80	-27.73	88957606	Downward Expansion	-89	85
2024-06-07	26.34	27.91	-18.62	143341763	Downward Expansion	-63	65
2024-05-31	25.96	27.96	-18.17	61465728	Downward Expansion	-74	59
2024-05-24	26.35	28.02	-18.85	32519189	Rotation Down	-68	41
2024-05-17	27.06	27.97	-16.12	31649660	Rotation Down	-32	32
2024-05-10	27.73	27.90	-12.83	34006360	Rotation Down	-21	40
2024-05-03	27.50	27.77	-12.94	35674227	Rotation Down	-23	41
2024-04-26	26.68	27.69	-15.31	28704564	Upward Expansion	-32	40
2024-04-19	26.57	27.68	-12.93	36202501	Upward Expansion	-15	27
2024-04-12	27.50	27.71	-15.18	24500145	Upward Expansion	15	12
2024-04-05	27.95	27.72	-14.69	26198280	Upward Expansion	47	35
2024-03-29	29.64	27.73	-10.70	14739110	Upward Expansion	62	74
2024-03-22	29.75	27.69	-11.26	16964711	Upward Expansion	63	75
2024-03-15	30.22	27.65	-7.55	24735437	Upward Expansion	75	74
2024-03-08	29.59	27.60	-10.89	28304960	Balance	67	50
2024-03-01	29.40	27.58	-13.23	33384789	Balance	64	29
2024-02-23	27.64	27.52	-17.16	21222788	Balance	23	20
2024-02-16	27.51	27.57	-16.87	25081579	Rotation Up	23	22
2024-02-09	27.83	27.62	-17.63	24638866	Rotation Up	7	13
2024-02-02	27.68	27.65	-17.02	27449747	Rotation Up	15	17
2024-01-26	27.72	27.66	-16.27	30943742	Rotation Up	29	33
2024-01-19	28.59	27.69	-13.56	24629463	Rotation Up	34	55
2024-01-12	29.52	27.72	-8.68	23427820	Rotation Up	47	61
2024-01-05	28.77	27.71	-8.57	23830621	Rotation Up	30	46
2023-12-29	28.80	27.71	-11.82	14369347	Balance	30	26
2023-12-22	28.00	27.74	-14.51	21502998	Balance	1	9
2023-12-15	27.54	27.76	-15.65	30010781	Balance	-5	10
2023-12-08	26.96	27.84	-15.17	26702279	Downward Expansion	-8	13
2023-12-01	27.61	27.94	-13.05	35399407	Downward Expansion	-14	23
2023-11-24	27.58	28.01	-13.42	22017638	Downward Expansion	-16	26
2023-11-17	27.40	28.02	-13.64	25697123	Downward Expansion	-28	26
2023-11-10	27.64	28.00	-11.47	29492419	Downward Expansion	-34	21
2023-11-03	27.78	27.95	-8.70	37156323	Downward Expansion	-54	46
2023-10-27	24.95	27.90	-13.04	27438294	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2023-10-20	24.99	27.97	-15.41	34055765	Downward Expansion	-70	87
2023-10-13	23.86	28.00	-21.77	31075036	Rotation Down	-92	94

Price vs TrendBelow-1.4%

Trend directionRising+4.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+33.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-25.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-8.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-22.2%

Price momentumPositive+18.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.69×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-26 / ±100

-47.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

42 /100

+28.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MNST Directional State ↗ MNST Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance36

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion26

Deceleration53

Rotation Down64

Downward Expansion45

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 45%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 17%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-14	2026-10-02	Developing	-8.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-08-07	Developing	+4.1%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-05-15	Developing	+18.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2026-03-13	Extended	+22.7%
Deceleration	2025-07-18	2025-08-15	Developing	+9.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-28	2025-07-11	Established	+1.7%
Rotation Up	2025-03-14	2025-03-21	New	+4.0%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-03-07	New	+0.8%
Rotation Down	2025-01-31	2025-02-21	New	+8.8%
Balance	2025-01-03	2025-01-24	New	-7.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-29	2024-12-27	Developing	-4.7%
Rotation Up	2024-10-25	2024-11-22	Developing	+1.3%
Balance	2024-10-04	2024-10-18	New	+6.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-31	2024-09-27	Established	+1.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution79

Stage 4 · Declining43

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3C · Breakdown watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: -8.58
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +18.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -9.5%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 100th percentile12 in cohort

Test MNST trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.55×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.69×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MNST Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 43.46falling

Slow Activity USD 45.06rising

Trend Reference USD 43.55-1.4% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 32.19+33.4% close margin

Structural low USD 35.91shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +26.5%

From structural high -14.4%

From structural low +30.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+2.1%-7.3% to +13.5%	+69.2%	+69.2%	+1.1%	+61.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+13.5%-10.6% to +24.0%	+80.0%	+80.0%	-3.3%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+15.0%+7.7% to +32.5%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-2.6%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+26.6%-18.5% to +65.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+14.9%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MNST Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map