Weekly structural research · NYSE · Financial Services

YRD Stage Analysis

Yirendai Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 1.00Tenure ExtendedBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -66−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 71/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -75.6%USD 4.10 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.00	1.40	-66.64	283107	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2026-10-02	0.9571	1.48	-68.91	586286	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2026-09-25	0.9907	1.58	-69.14	165627	Downward Expansion	-66	56
2026-09-18	0.9834	1.67	-70.02	128029	Downward Expansion	-70	59
2026-09-11	1.01	1.77	-70.24	249801	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2026-09-04	1.02	1.86	-71.12	294580	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2026-08-28	1.05	1.95	-71.12	259162	Downward Expansion	-72	56
2026-08-21	1.14	2.05	-69.42	228495	Downward Expansion	-67	54
2026-08-14	1.19	2.14	-69.45	325487	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-08-07	1.26	2.23	-68.50	316574	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-07-31	1.11	2.32	-72.00	188075	Downward Expansion	-71	62
2026-07-24	1.18	2.41	-70.70	301981	Downward Expansion	-59	57
2026-07-17	1.25	2.51	-69.98	448289	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2026-07-10	1.26	2.61	-70.98	4352981	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2026-07-03	1.44	2.71	-67.23	57341318	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2026-06-26	1.11	2.82	-74.81	366745	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2026-06-19	1.15	2.93	-75.13	256289	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2026-06-12	1.18	3.04	-74.88	385974	Downward Expansion	-77	84
2026-06-05	1.22	3.18	-74.56	1090540	Downward Expansion	-81	75
2026-05-29	1.36	3.31	-73.12	1085296	Downward Expansion	-81	69
2026-05-22	1.60	3.45	-68.69	1003599	Downward Expansion	-77	65
2026-05-15	2.07	3.60	-60.08	324021	Downward Expansion	-52	56
2026-05-08	2.00	3.72	-62.11	296341	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2026-05-01	2.03	3.85	-61.48	288237	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-04-24	2.07	4.00	-61.18	223199	Downward Expansion	-67	73
2026-04-17	2.21	4.12	-59.21	651068	Downward Expansion	-68	89
2026-04-10	1.78	4.24	-66.27	511025	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2026-04-03	1.62	4.38	-68.72	488487	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-03-27	1.68	4.51	-67.17	978278	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2026-03-20	1.97	4.64	-63.21	1484527	Downward Expansion	-92	74
2026-03-13	3.53	4.77	-36.53	144418	Downward Expansion	-71	53
2026-03-06	3.82	4.84	-33.41	165940	Downward Expansion	-58	50
2026-02-27	3.90	4.90	-34.21	226265	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-02-20	3.83	4.95	-36.45	149012	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2026-02-13	3.62	5.02	-40.09	236208	Downward Expansion	-74	62
2026-02-06	3.82	5.09	-38.25	288984	Downward Expansion	-68	59
2026-01-30	3.97	5.16	-36.48	345390	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2026-01-23	3.85	5.22	-38.57	175030	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2026-01-16	4.00	5.28	-36.80	286944	Downward Expansion	-67	74
2026-01-09	4.08	5.34	-36.03	460158	Downward Expansion	-67	78
2026-01-02	3.83	5.41	-39.20	492157	Downward Expansion	-81	87
2025-12-26	4.00	5.50	-37.48	367697	Downward Expansion	-80	80
2025-12-19	4.29	5.57	-32.26	239245	Downward Expansion	-74	83
2025-12-12	4.39	5.63	-30.77	263727	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2025-12-05	4.51	5.68	-29.43	345639	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2025-11-28	4.50	5.73	-29.49	435062	Downward Expansion	-81	85
2025-11-21	4.59	5.79	-25.62	476362	Downward Expansion	-83	80
2025-11-14	5.13	5.84	-18.59	205509	Balance	-68	59
2025-11-07	5.30	5.84	-16.07	208140	Balance	-60	35
2025-10-31	5.58	5.83	-13.37	614702	Balance	-21	11
2025-10-24	5.89	5.84	-8.16	177942	Balance	18	18
2025-10-17	5.91	5.87	-6.17	371711	Balance	9	15
2025-10-10	5.88	5.89	-5.12	399189	Downward Expansion	8	15
2025-10-03	6.43	5.92	0.93	632718	Downward Expansion	28	22
2025-09-26	5.74	5.92	-9.43	365646	Downward Expansion	-32	15
2025-09-19	5.81	5.94	-8.40	364648	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2025-09-12	5.79	5.98	-7.49	423652	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2025-09-05	5.53	6.00	-10.00	286920	Downward Expansion	-52	25
2025-08-29	5.61	6.00	-8.10	342501	Downward Expansion	-47	24
2025-08-22	5.94	5.99	-2.50	629079	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2025-08-15	5.68	5.96	-6.25	444022	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2025-08-08	5.47	5.93	-8.70	430871	Balance	-54	37
2025-08-01	5.48	5.89	-6.07	380065	Balance	-29	23
2025-07-25	5.98	5.86	0.31	357688	Balance	3	7
2025-07-18	5.85	5.81	0.03	343693	Balance	-19	20
2025-07-11	5.81	5.76	0.26	506621	Deceleration	8	14
2025-07-04	5.83	5.72	0.62	427494	Deceleration	12	12
2025-06-27	5.64	5.68	-0.68	288873	Deceleration	9	5
2025-06-20	5.68	5.64	3.81	483780	Deceleration	33	17
2025-06-13	6.11	5.61	11.87	1322858	Deceleration	46	28
2025-06-06	6.75	5.58	23.67	731621	Deceleration	51	34
2025-05-30	6.04	5.55	13.20	450055	Deceleration	35	18
2025-05-23	6.02	5.52	15.29	380106	Deceleration	33	18
2025-05-16	5.97	5.50	12.02	486645	Deceleration	32	18
2025-05-09	6.04	5.48	19.64	481479	Deceleration	23	11
2025-05-02	6.15	5.48	21.86	392686	Deceleration	31	19
2025-04-25	6.12	5.51	25.19	510768	Deceleration	27	22
2025-04-18	5.32	5.46	14.28	332679	Deceleration	18	18
2025-04-11	4.97	5.42	5.63	1113941	Deceleration	18	14
2025-04-04	5.71	5.39	28.20	996469	Upward Expansion	44	30
2025-03-28	6.80	5.34	39.68	1296273	Upward Expansion	64	47
2025-03-21	6.47	5.25	32.28	1842531	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-03-14	6.85	5.18	41.43	463918	Upward Expansion	73	81
2025-03-07	6.46	5.10	31.08	625488	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-02-28	6.39	5.01	26.49	644201	Upward Expansion	69	82
2025-02-21	7.06	4.93	38.73	1247341	Upward Expansion	90	87
2025-02-14	6.17	4.84	19.90	697231	Upward Expansion	76	68
2025-02-07	5.58	4.78	10.32	575901	Deceleration	63	41
2025-01-31	5.30	4.74	4.91	493102	Deceleration	44	25
2025-01-24	5.16	4.70	1.23	447333	Deceleration	16	10
2025-01-17	4.59	4.66	-8.46	381329	Deceleration	-13	15
2025-01-10	4.34	4.66	-10.96	459343	Deceleration	-21	26
2025-01-03	4.69	4.65	-5.62	520001	Deceleration	-14	22
2024-12-27	4.54	4.64	-9.03	360968	Deceleration	-15	17
2024-12-20	4.39	4.63	-11.11	471831	Deceleration	-17	19
2024-12-13	4.46	4.63	-11.17	859402	Deceleration	-15	19
2024-12-06	4.51	4.63	-10.23	1213349	Deceleration	15	15
2024-11-29	4.69	4.63	-5.56	692691	Deceleration	24	15
2024-11-22	4.52	4.63	-7.49	1055535	Deceleration	25	14
2024-11-15	5.45	4.63	13.61	443932	Upward Expansion	41	26
2024-11-08	5.64	4.60	16.35	685320	Upward Expansion	57	34
2024-11-01	5.38	4.56	17.58	674924	Upward Expansion	57	41
2024-10-25	5.28	4.53	15.05	739273	Upward Expansion	61	72
2024-10-18	5.44	4.49	18.60	1108401	Upward Expansion	61	74
2024-10-11	6.05	4.46	34.66	1604314	Upward Expansion	72	78
2024-10-04	6.95	4.42	58.54	4505736	Upward Expansion	84	78
2024-09-27	4.68	4.33	8.91	1013359	Balance	3	5
2024-09-20	4.20	4.34	-0.90	275638	Balance	-44	26
2024-09-13	4.06	4.36	-2.42	266935	Balance	-49	24
2024-09-06	4.06	4.37	2.26	290578	Balance	-48	19
2024-08-30	4.07	4.37	-1.13	471617	Balance	-41	18
2024-08-23	4.38	4.37	7.14	555370	Balance	-29	16
2024-08-16	4.36	4.37	8.95	340485	Balance	-44	33
2024-08-09	3.98	4.34	4.11	300366	Balance	-59	45
2024-08-02	3.97	4.33	4.71	251747	Balance	-34	21
2024-07-26	4.18	4.32	8.60	245944	Balance	-21	13
2024-07-19	4.36	4.27	13.16	311267	Balance	9	10
2024-07-12	4.35	4.22	11.68	375634	Balance	8	9
2024-07-05	4.11	4.16	7.29	374552	Balance	1	14
2024-06-28	4.08	4.12	9.47	492583	Balance	-2	9
2024-06-21	4.44	4.07	20.02	536533	Balance	13	10
2024-06-14	4.25	4.02	16.64	311276	Balance	9	12
2024-06-07	4.24	3.95	19.10	242481	Balance	13	11
2024-05-31	4.36	3.88	24.85	251494	Balance	23	12
2024-05-24	4.23	3.80	21.76	543884	Upward Expansion	35	20
2024-05-17	4.51	3.73	31.43	298463	Upward Expansion	52	33
2024-05-10	4.61	3.64	37.91	587005	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-05-03	4.70	3.56	44.62	758696	Upward Expansion	56	35
2024-04-26	4.58	3.47	43.36	543294	Deceleration	43	28
2024-04-19	4.35	3.39	41.80	550147	Deceleration	39	23
2024-04-12	4.64	3.32	48.43	824161	Deceleration	46	29
2024-04-05	4.42	3.24	41.16	803279	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-03-29	4.06	3.17	30.27	1171829	Upward Expansion	45	33
2024-03-22	4.57	3.12	48.41	1474637	Upward Expansion	61	50
2024-03-15	4.79	3.04	61.31	424493	Upward Expansion	68	58
2024-03-08	4.39	2.96	49.19	760096	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-03-01	4.97	2.88	70.58	471664	Upward Expansion	81	69
2024-02-23	4.61	2.79	61.59	240374	Upward Expansion	76	66
2024-02-16	4.52	2.71	62.55	888962	Upward Expansion	79	66
2024-02-09	3.96	2.63	42.50	547010	Upward Expansion	67	65
2024-02-02	4.04	2.57	47.64	823762	Upward Expansion	73	86
2024-01-26	4.30	2.50	59.92	924045	Upward Expansion	91	95
2024-01-19	3.70	2.43	39.78	497474	Upward Expansion	81	89
2024-01-12	3.68	2.38	40.69	943577	Upward Expansion	88	86
2024-01-05	3.52	2.33	37.85	1413374	Upward Expansion	91	74
2023-12-29	2.81	2.29	9.28	420834	Upward Expansion	69	69
2023-12-22	2.85	2.26	12.12	451612	Upward Expansion	75	81
2023-12-15	2.63	2.23	5.65	426913	Upward Expansion	65	79
2023-12-08	2.69	2.21	11.68	665456	Upward Expansion	69	81
2023-12-01	2.73	2.19	14.62	535287	Upward Expansion	76	77
2023-11-24	2.80	2.18	19.95	607895	Upward Expansion	77	58
2023-11-17	2.34	2.15	2.63	265498	Rotation Down	10	9
2023-11-10	2.02	2.13	-9.00	134778	Rotation Down	-30	45
2023-11-03	2.01	2.13	-7.37	248845	Balance	-31	45
2023-10-27	1.98	2.13	-2.36	186828	Balance	-23	36
2023-10-20	1.98	2.13	-3.75	252184	Balance	-23	22

Price vs TrendBelow-28.4%

Trend directionFalling-39.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-75.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-66.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.3%

Price momentumNegative-43.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.25×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-66 / ±100

+4.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

71 /100

+8.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

YRD Directional State ↗ YRD Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance8

Rotation Up28

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration42

Rotation Down58

Downward Expansion91

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Upward Expansion 25%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 36%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-10-09	Extended	-78.2%
Balance	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	-13.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-10-10	Developing	+3.5%
Balance	2025-07-18	2025-08-08	New	-6.6%
Deceleration	2025-04-11	2025-07-11	Established	+16.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-14	2025-04-04	Developing	-7.4%
Deceleration	2024-11-22	2025-02-07	Developing	+23.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-04	2024-11-15	Developing	-21.6%
Balance	2024-05-31	2024-09-27	Established	+7.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-03	2024-05-24	New	-10.0%
Deceleration	2024-04-12	2024-04-26	New	-1.4%
Upward Expansion	2023-11-24	2024-04-05	Established	+57.6%
Rotation Down	2023-11-10	2023-11-17	New	+16.1%
Balance	2023-06-30	2023-11-03	Established	-2.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing64

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution6

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -66.64
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -43.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -58.7%
Financial Services regime cohort: 76th percentile70 in cohort

Test YRD trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.08×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.25×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore YRD Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 0.9852falling

Slow Activity USD 1.21falling

Trend Reference USD 1.40-28.4% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 4.10-75.6% close margin

Structural low USD 0.82shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +11.7%

Annualized volatility +73.9%

From structural high -83.7%

From structural low +22.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	31	-6.5%-49.6% to +29.7%	+32.3%	+64.5%	-7.8%	+93.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-19.1%-58.2% to +44.0%	+11.1%	+88.9%	-21.5%	+77.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-36.3%-67.1% to +200.9%	+20.0%	+80.0%	-42.8%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-70.6%-79.0% to +145.0%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-67.2%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

YRD Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map