Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Cyclical

9939 Stage Analysis

Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 128.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 10−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 17/100directional strength

Maturity 63/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -0.7%TWD 128.97 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	128.00	122.04	-21.88	2495022	Deceleration	10	17
2026-10-02	124.50	121.60	-23.53	2952768	Deceleration	14	21
2026-09-25	124.50	121.24	-23.75	1770079	Deceleration	23	21
2026-09-18	127.00	120.96	-21.79	2790122	Deceleration	36	22
2026-09-11	129.50	120.54	-19.47	3842641	Deceleration	43	33
2026-09-04	131.50	120.00	-19.92	377133	Upward Expansion	56	43
2026-08-28	132.00	119.42	-20.37	834373	Upward Expansion	62	64
2026-08-21	134.00	118.84	-18.39	1604550	Upward Expansion	64	73
2026-08-14	132.00	118.10	-21.67	1523587	Upward Expansion	64	76
2026-08-07	144.50	117.51	-12.46	3000700	Upward Expansion	90	85
2026-07-31	128.00	116.51	-21.56	1697884	Upward Expansion	64	54
2026-07-24	129.50	116.02	-22.86	1359594	Upward Expansion	73	49
2026-07-17	125.50	115.48	-24.68	2835786	Upward Expansion	63	41
2026-07-10	122.50	114.97	-31.97	0	Upward Expansion	58	43
2026-07-03	122.00	114.85	-35.50	17113992	Upward Expansion	61	61
2026-06-26	122.73	114.85	-33.12	7484041	Upward Expansion	64	72
2026-06-19	127.48	114.64	-34.55	5003144	Rotation Up	77	80
2026-06-12	127.01	114.45	-32.53	8248091	Rotation Up	50	66
2026-06-05	121.30	114.15	-37.83	8733485	Rotation Up	29	37
2026-05-29	117.49	114.12	-40.28	5239883	Balance	16	26
2026-05-22	120.82	114.42	-36.05	8210817	Balance	14	17
2026-05-15	118.92	114.47	-36.36	15191100	Downward Expansion	-17	13
2026-05-08	106.08	114.55	-44.75	5754894	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2026-05-01	106.08	114.99	-41.99	3036552	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2026-04-24	107.03	115.48	-42.48	7446995	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2026-04-17	108.93	115.97	-39.19	11626222	Downward Expansion	-58	52
2026-04-10	106.55	116.40	-39.12	6714604	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2026-04-03	110.36	117.08	-32.35	2896507	Downward Expansion	-58	33
2026-03-27	114.16	117.80	-31.97	3962357	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2026-03-20	111.31	118.41	-35.31	7260704	Downward Expansion	-57	28
2026-03-13	114.64	119.14	-33.95	6535267	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2026-03-06	113.69	119.86	-35.64	5985069	Downward Expansion	-39	21
2026-02-27	116.07	120.73	-38.40	5815902	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2026-02-13	114.64	121.65	-36.56	2219060	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2026-02-06	113.21	122.55	-34.44	4309978	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2026-01-30	114.16	123.58	-35.07	9157363	Downward Expansion	-53	36
2026-01-23	114.64	124.66	-35.21	4355734	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2026-01-16	111.79	125.68	-36.25	5454662	Downward Expansion	-67	50
2026-01-09	114.16	126.85	-32.99	5304385	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2026-01-02	114.64	127.73	-31.04	2350053	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2025-12-26	113.21	128.51	-30.46	2668992	Downward Expansion	-68	71
2025-12-19	113.21	129.22	-28.77	5077234	Downward Expansion	-71	60
2025-12-12	110.36	130.04	-32.17	9189155	Downward Expansion	-85	63
2025-12-05	118.92	131.04	-26.81	1905987	Downward Expansion	-62	46
2025-11-28	121.78	131.86	-24.54	3370994	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-11-21	116.54	132.54	-24.92	4410933	Downward Expansion	-74	58
2025-11-14	121.78	133.27	-24.77	5457782	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2025-11-07	117.97	133.95	-28.16	4328143	Downward Expansion	-74	55
2025-10-31	120.35	134.46	-28.65	6033128	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2025-10-24	126.53	135.05	-23.53	4555183	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2025-10-17	122.25	135.51	-25.84	7198360	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2025-10-10	121.30	136.35	-26.82	2253522	Downward Expansion	-68	85
2025-10-03	119.40	137.28	-27.02	2710754	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2025-09-26	120.82	138.28	-23.28	4252089	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2025-09-19	121.78	139.37	-23.12	7878554	Downward Expansion	-82	91
2025-09-12	121.78	140.24	-23.30	9177824	Downward Expansion	-89	90
2025-09-05	127.01	141.04	-17.27	6221638	Downward Expansion	-83	85
2025-08-29	131.77	141.67	-13.62	3196527	Downward Expansion	-71	76
2025-08-22	132.72	142.20	-11.57	4506340	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2025-08-15	133.19	142.43	-13.66	8393933	Balance	-72	59
2025-08-08	136.05	142.39	-10.97	4719058	Balance	-53	32
2025-08-01	139.85	142.28	-6.52	3028521	Balance	-17	11
2025-07-25	143.66	142.15	-3.89	3717603	Balance	19	18
2025-07-18	141.75	141.81	-5.43	3759842	Balance	21	32
2025-07-11	144.13	141.45	-1.23	4344630	Balance	44	42
2025-07-04	146.51	141.18	1.28	6941311	Balance	47	35
2025-06-27	145.31	140.77	0.28	7520692	Balance	41	25
2025-06-20	146.68	140.50	3.67	7752726	Balance	13	6
2025-06-13	140.74	140.38	-0.57	4745254	Balance	-21	23
2025-06-06	138.00	140.42	-0.76	2280624	Balance	-13	26
2025-05-30	134.35	140.49	-2.10	3360757	Balance	-25	21
2025-05-23	138.00	140.74	-0.93	2591650	Balance	-4	4
2025-05-16	140.29	140.88	-0.27	5090321	Balance	3	3
2025-05-09	143.49	140.96	6.19	4292659	Balance	25	11
2025-05-02	142.11	141.11	5.68	2541138	Balance	-13	17
2025-04-25	138.46	141.46	7.66	5023815	Balance	-16	24
2025-04-18	142.11	141.73	13.15	6086992	Balance	-14	23
2025-04-11	133.43	141.94	5.73	14827300	Balance	-29	29
2025-04-04	138.00	142.22	0.40	2778759	Rotation Up	12	15
2025-03-28	140.29	142.52	0.68	3864558	Rotation Up	30	19
2025-03-21	147.60	142.66	3.10	7000074	Rotation Up	58	43
2025-03-14	148.97	142.81	5.26	7498453	Rotation Up	34	49
2025-03-07	149.43	142.58	2.82	4136904	Rotation Up	36	60
2025-02-28	153.54	142.54	3.40	6037879	Rotation Up	44	64
2025-02-21	148.06	142.34	-3.13	3378921	Rotation Up	30	47
2025-02-14	145.77	142.61	-2.39	3712843	Balance	23	33
2025-02-07	145.77	142.72	-3.87	4468565	Balance	4	19
2025-01-24	147.60	142.90	-2.99	4665858	Downward Expansion	-6	11
2025-01-17	139.83	143.04	-6.65	6172348	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2025-01-10	132.06	143.40	-11.41	3099172	Downward Expansion	-65	47
2025-01-03	132.52	143.78	-10.86	1767762	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2024-12-27	136.17	144.28	-9.96	2398206	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2024-12-20	133.43	144.55	-8.86	5084521	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2024-12-13	130.69	144.82	-12.78	4532481	Downward Expansion	-75	74
2024-12-06	136.17	145.20	-9.93	3397019	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-11-29	134.35	145.84	-7.57	3546822	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2024-11-22	137.09	146.33	-8.35	5367520	Downward Expansion	-66	53
2024-11-15	143.03	146.42	-3.67	5025579	Downward Expansion	-52	45
2024-11-08	142.11	146.34	-7.35	2974605	Balance	-54	52
2024-11-01	139.83	146.18	-5.59	3018829	Balance	-31	42
2024-10-25	142.11	145.84	-6.21	3862209	Balance	-24	27
2024-10-18	142.11	145.36	-6.62	4489270	Balance	-11	9
2024-10-11	142.57	144.87	-3.75	2749493	Deceleration	16	8
2024-10-04	147.93	144.34	2.78	2668691	Deceleration	32	18
2024-09-27	152.62	143.72	3.94	4631262	Deceleration	40	18
2024-09-20	146.68	142.94	3.19	1611588	Deceleration	16	9
2024-09-13	148.51	142.21	6.68	2889281	Deceleration	17	11
2024-09-06	141.66	141.45	3.69	3073472	Deceleration	3	6
2024-08-30	147.14	140.79	3.98	2423368	Deceleration	17	11
2024-08-23	144.40	139.90	2.89	3872339	Deceleration	27	15
2024-08-16	152.17	138.96	7.82	6165971	Deceleration	42	20
2024-08-09	142.11	137.66	5.29	6825964	Upward Expansion	30	19
2024-08-02	148.06	136.62	9.25	7030596	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-07-26	147.60	135.32	6.98	5195028	Upward Expansion	57	42
2024-07-19	156.28	134.09	9.96	8129225	Upward Expansion	72	54
2024-07-12	148.97	132.51	0.66	6231027	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-07-05	151.25	131.19	4.06	6684827	Upward Expansion	64	50
2024-06-28	151.85	129.85	7.16	4625656	Upward Expansion	69	52
2024-06-21	150.53	128.34	5.65	4761116	Upward Expansion	69	50
2024-06-14	143.44	126.72	4.46	2954940	Upward Expansion	47	40
2024-06-07	147.43	125.05	10.99	4927711	Upward Expansion	66	50
2024-05-31	144.33	123.19	12.75	3042649	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-05-24	141.67	121.41	9.16	4079673	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-05-17	142.11	119.68	11.54	8257313	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-05-10	155.39	117.94	25.76	5234867	Upward Expansion	92	95
2024-05-03	148.75	115.80	23.47	3596264	Upward Expansion	90	93
2024-04-26	139.90	113.94	18.05	9460648	Upward Expansion	76	76
2024-04-19	140.79	112.39	23.02	6367864	Upward Expansion	85	72
2024-04-12	137.24	110.81	13.63	4722679	Upward Expansion	84	69
2024-04-05	129.72	109.38	9.96	1710970	Upward Expansion	69	62
2024-03-29	127.50	108.17	8.71	2581904	Upward Expansion	63	63
2024-03-22	127.50	106.98	9.47	3622425	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-03-15	126.62	105.77	12.14	4536589	Upward Expansion	68	78
2024-03-08	129.27	104.47	14.31	6216657	Upward Expansion	78	89
2024-03-01	129.27	103.14	19.86	4235080	Upward Expansion	85	93
2024-02-23	124.85	101.93	16.60	4206231	Upward Expansion	76	89
2024-02-16	125.73	100.93	19.75	3402003	Upward Expansion	85	88
2024-02-09	121.75	99.82	19.83	562877	Upward Expansion	81	79
2024-02-02	120.42	98.83	19.46	7150083	Upward Expansion	84	71
2024-01-26	116.44	97.87	16.61	4932318	Upward Expansion	81	68
2024-01-19	112.89	96.96	15.69	4419514	Upward Expansion	75	66
2024-01-12	111.12	96.16	15.57	4680215	Upward Expansion	72	67
2024-01-05	108.91	95.37	13.71	2017997	Upward Expansion	68	67
2023-12-29	110.68	94.62	13.31	2246268	Upward Expansion	75	90
2023-12-22	108.91	93.94	14.02	5840583	Upward Expansion	71	89
2023-12-15	109.35	93.22	14.44	8507231	Upward Expansion	81	93
2023-12-08	111.12	92.43	18.83	7374545	Upward Expansion	93	97
2023-12-01	106.70	91.51	14.45	11216856	Upward Expansion	90	90
2023-11-24	101.83	90.78	10.75	7277554	Upward Expansion	82	73
2023-11-17	93.41	90.21	2.47	4216756	Balance	39	16
2023-11-10	91.64	89.87	3.88	2886742	Balance	10	14
2023-11-03	90.76	89.66	3.97	3727551	Balance	9	16
2023-10-27	89.87	89.42	5.29	2707219	Balance	15	15
2023-10-20	89.87	89.17	3.46	3250608	Upward Expansion	23	13
2023-10-13	91.20	88.92	2.93	2407316	Upward Expansion	49	28
2023-10-06	92.97	88.64	6.70	2047273	Upward Expansion	55	46

Price vs TrendAbove+4.9%

Trend directionRising+4.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-0.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-21.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+10.1%

Price momentumPositive+20.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.88×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

10 / ±100

-32.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

17 /100

-16.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

9939 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance60

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion41

Deceleration88

Rotation Down38

Downward Expansion32

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 33%Deceleration 9%Downward Expansion 31%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-10-09	Developing	-1.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-09-04	Developing	+7.1%
Rotation Up	2026-06-05	2026-06-19	New	+5.1%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-05-29	New	-2.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-22	2026-05-15	Extended	-10.4%
Balance	2025-04-11	2025-08-15	Established	-0.2%
Rotation Up	2025-02-21	2025-04-04	Developing	-6.8%
Balance	2025-02-07	2025-02-14	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-15	2025-01-24	Developing	+3.2%
Balance	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2024-08-16	2024-10-11	Developing	-6.3%
Upward Expansion	2023-11-24	2024-08-09	Extended	+39.6%
Balance	2023-10-27	2023-11-17	New	+3.9%
Upward Expansion	2023-09-22	2023-10-20	Developing	-3.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing42

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution41

Stage 4 · Declining30

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 25/100
Current Relative Strength: -21.88
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +20.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -19.1%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 56th percentile55 in cohort

Test 9939 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.63×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.88×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 9939 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 126.33falling

Slow Activity TWD 126.24rising

Trend Reference TWD 122.04+4.9% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 128.97-0.7% close margin

Structural low TWD 103.22shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.6%

Annualized volatility +30.1%

From structural high -12.0%

From structural low +24.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	-0.3%-4.2% to +6.2%	+36.4%	+36.4%	+0.6%	+54.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+7.8%-6.0% to +17.4%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+9.5%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+19.6%-2.7% to +36.9%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+6.7%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+22.8%-12.8% to +55.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+35.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

9939 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map