Weekly structural research · SHH · Utilities

601158 Stage Analysis

Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CNY 4.06Tenure NewBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -61−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 64/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -13.2%CNY 4.68 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	4.06	4.17	-2.76	12209100	Downward Expansion	-61	64
2026-10-02	4.02	4.19	-4.64	15061573	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2026-09-25	3.98	4.21	-6.97	22876472	Downward Expansion	-76	67
2026-09-18	4.01	4.23	-7.14	33965456	Downward Expansion	-61	38
2026-09-11	4.10	4.25	-4.79	36525908	Deceleration	-42	25
2026-09-04	4.12	4.26	-5.63	5854218	Deceleration	-36	23
2026-08-28	4.16	4.28	-5.52	6288000	Downward Expansion	-26	20
2026-08-21	4.10	4.29	-6.06	5654410	Downward Expansion	-40	22
2026-08-14	4.12	4.30	-6.47	5626875	Downward Expansion	-31	23
2026-08-07	4.12	4.32	-7.17	7233400	Downward Expansion	-30	26
2026-07-31	4.22	4.33	-2.68	9053856	Downward Expansion	-34	27
2026-07-24	4.17	4.34	-3.76	8525006	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2026-07-17	4.16	4.35	-3.11	12261458	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2026-07-10	4.06	4.36	-11.30	4393450	Downward Expansion	-66	84
2026-07-03	4.01	4.38	-13.89	6050100	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-06-26	3.92	4.40	-15.99	5869100	Downward Expansion	-88	93
2026-06-19	4.00	4.42	-16.15	21373406	Downward Expansion	-83	80
2026-06-12	4.11	4.45	-13.17	7522985	Downward Expansion	-73	75
2026-06-05	4.15	4.48	-12.89	7403600	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2026-05-29	4.22	4.49	-12.91	35170322	Downward Expansion	-63	51
2026-05-22	4.14	4.51	-15.95	56108661	Downward Expansion	-78	56
2026-05-15	4.23	4.53	-14.99	58788154	Downward Expansion	-71	52
2026-05-08	4.35	4.55	-14.10	27158958	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2026-05-01	4.32	4.56	-13.80	33211435	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2026-04-24	4.27	4.57	-14.60	28255694	Downward Expansion	-69	84
2026-04-17	4.25	4.58	-14.89	25756372	Downward Expansion	-76	83
2026-04-10	4.24	4.59	-14.22	37258185	Downward Expansion	-79	75
2026-04-03	4.32	4.61	-10.81	87595884	Downward Expansion	-58	35
2026-03-27	4.58	4.62	-6.66	96896069	Balance	-8	14
2026-03-20	4.61	4.62	-7.40	62334267	Balance	-6	18
2026-03-13	4.66	4.63	-9.84	69135437	Downward Expansion	4	12
2026-03-06	4.60	4.63	-11.93	83891722	Downward Expansion	-27	15
2026-02-27	4.60	4.63	-13.07	41845521	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2026-02-13	4.50	4.64	-13.57	39431897	Downward Expansion	-42	23
2026-02-06	4.53	4.64	-12.97	65003843	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2026-01-30	4.57	4.65	-13.65	70205828	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2026-01-23	4.57	4.65	-14.37	54279264	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2026-01-16	4.50	4.66	-15.30	50965592	Downward Expansion	-61	60
2026-01-09	4.49	4.66	-16.21	42424666	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2026-01-02	4.47	4.67	-13.77	19852744	Downward Expansion	-69	77
2025-12-26	4.47	4.68	-14.03	41289360	Downward Expansion	-73	77
2025-12-19	4.46	4.69	-12.97	72415256	Downward Expansion	-76	71
2025-12-12	4.50	4.70	-12.52	80061895	Balance	-71	45
2025-12-05	4.64	4.70	-10.46	70189337	Balance	-15	10
2025-11-28	4.70	4.71	-9.30	57070486	Balance	15	16
2025-11-21	4.66	4.71	-9.12	62936798	Upward Expansion	38	33
2025-11-14	4.84	4.71	-9.59	62800472	Upward Expansion	67	61
2025-11-07	4.84	4.70	-10.02	88537746	Balance	67	45
2025-10-31	4.68	4.70	-12.25	60144269	Balance	-4	12
2025-10-24	4.74	4.70	-11.39	75646783	Balance	3	8
2025-10-17	4.72	4.70	-9.52	68814492	Balance	-22	12
2025-10-10	4.70	4.70	-11.46	31044253	Balance	-44	38
2025-10-03	4.61	4.70	-13.11	20742666	Balance	-58	49
2025-09-26	4.61	4.70	-12.19	47479283	Balance	-56	44
2025-09-19	4.63	4.69	-11.94	58327854	Balance	-26	22
2025-09-12	4.71	4.69	-11.96	63916714	Balance	19	7
2025-09-05	4.66	4.68	-11.94	64605976	Balance	6	6
2025-08-29	4.69	4.68	-12.80	92071961	Balance	24	10
2025-08-22	4.72	4.67	-11.99	61436510	Balance	22	10
2025-08-15	4.67	4.66	-10.42	70999776	Balance	25	11
2025-08-08	4.70	4.65	-8.87	44630878	Balance	34	19
2025-08-01	4.67	4.64	-8.01	59511360	Balance	31	20
2025-07-25	4.79	4.64	-6.99	56049681	Balance	55	36
2025-07-18	4.72	4.64	-7.22	48371275	Balance	23	10
2025-07-11	4.73	4.64	-6.69	56879889	Balance	21	17
2025-07-04	4.66	4.64	-7.34	51664580	Balance	13	16
2025-06-27	4.62	4.65	-7.16	59875513	Balance	19	12
2025-06-20	4.60	4.66	-6.05	71000473	Upward Expansion	24	14
2025-06-13	4.68	4.66	-5.16	86504503	Upward Expansion	51	33
2025-06-06	4.83	4.66	-2.61	48413781	Upward Expansion	64	53
2025-05-30	4.78	4.67	-2.68	45300546	Balance	33	32
2025-05-23	4.70	4.67	-4.45	45164712	Balance	23	18
2025-05-16	4.75	4.67	-4.21	51980622	Balance	30	21
2025-05-09	4.72	4.66	-4.21	55269872	Balance	8	9
2025-05-02	4.68	4.66	-3.51	37955219	Balance	2	7
2025-04-25	4.70	4.67	-3.72	45504956	Rotation Up	17	19
2025-04-18	4.65	4.66	-4.32	44730309	Rotation Up	17	28
2025-04-11	4.69	4.64	-2.55	97662188	Rotation Up	20	38
2025-04-04	4.77	4.62	-3.96	48587963	Balance	41	42
2025-03-28	4.68	4.61	-6.39	40773320	Balance	25	26
2025-03-21	4.70	4.60	-6.81	41061701	Balance	17	19
2025-03-14	4.69	4.61	-8.85	58390216	Downward Expansion	12	12
2025-03-07	4.62	4.61	-9.33	43548821	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2025-02-28	4.50	4.62	-10.68	35027171	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2025-02-21	4.50	4.63	-12.62	34471873	Downward Expansion	-44	28
2025-02-14	4.54	4.64	-11.55	42624104	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2025-02-07	4.51	4.65	-11.58	21802536	Downward Expansion	-50	56
2025-01-31	4.47	4.65	-11.53	10024305	Downward Expansion	-52	65
2025-01-24	4.43	4.66	-12.92	31044006	Balance	-55	65
2025-01-17	4.44	4.67	-12.99	34416005	Balance	-36	49
2025-01-10	4.37	4.68	-13.12	61100657	Balance	-30	26
2025-01-03	4.58	4.69	-10.67	39151887	Balance	20	11
2024-12-27	4.79	4.70	-12.08	42945256	Balance	49	27
2024-12-20	4.80	4.69	-11.52	47943491	Balance	49	28
2024-12-13	4.83	4.69	-12.05	76236509	Balance	51	28
2024-12-06	4.90	4.69	-11.55	58233807	Balance	30	21
2024-11-29	4.80	4.69	-11.63	48750599	Balance	16	16
2024-11-22	4.73	4.69	-11.64	57772332	Balance	14	17
2024-11-15	4.74	4.69	-13.41	88657817	Balance	14	21
2024-11-08	4.91	4.69	-13.82	93911289	Balance	26	25
2024-11-01	4.82	4.68	-10.97	84594296	Balance	10	18
2024-10-25	4.71	4.69	-13.93	81655130	Balance	-17	22
2024-10-18	4.64	4.71	-14.63	183141699	Downward Expansion	-26	23
2024-10-11	4.64	4.73	-13.73	110835969	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2024-10-04	4.81	4.75	-13.91	41957494	Downward Expansion	-41	38
2024-09-27	4.52	4.77	-12.83	63484147	Downward Expansion	-66	83
2024-09-20	4.13	4.79	-10.32	22985017	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2024-09-13	4.12	4.83	-9.57	49986343	Downward Expansion	-89	92
2024-09-06	4.24	4.88	-9.20	70323450	Downward Expansion	-85	76
2024-08-30	4.59	4.91	-4.59	41925088	Balance	-54	26
2024-08-23	4.80	4.94	-0.62	29907704	Balance	-11	16
2024-08-16	4.90	4.96	0.61	42457217	Downward Expansion	1	16
2024-08-09	4.81	4.98	-0.45	34086635	Downward Expansion	-28	20
2024-08-02	4.84	5.01	-1.21	51233855	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2024-07-26	4.81	5.02	-1.27	51411103	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2024-07-19	4.72	5.04	-5.92	27429028	Downward Expansion	-59	54
2024-07-12	4.70	5.07	-6.16	33433765	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2024-07-05	4.71	5.09	-5.14	28114316	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2024-06-28	4.65	5.11	-6.97	35939987	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2024-06-21	4.69	5.14	-7.08	38460001	Downward Expansion	-67	56
2024-06-14	4.75	5.15	-6.81	36827004	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2024-06-07	4.75	5.17	-7.34	56303600	Downward Expansion	-62	48
2024-05-31	4.75	5.18	-8.43	49087220	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2024-05-24	4.82	5.20	-7.21	67380584	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2024-05-17	4.83	5.21	-8.93	121852399	Downward Expansion	-62	67
2024-05-10	4.81	5.22	-9.27	72548468	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2024-05-03	4.76	5.23	-8.66	36552776	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2024-04-26	4.74	5.25	-8.47	55189774	Downward Expansion	-69	74
2024-04-19	4.77	5.27	-7.13	100988278	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2024-04-12	4.71	5.28	-6.71	152832889	Balance	-75	65
2024-04-05	4.95	5.29	-3.56	91817913	Balance	-29	34
2024-03-29	5.32	5.30	4.85	48167301	Balance	-7	12
2024-03-22	5.18	5.30	2.16	47366757	Balance	-13	14
2024-03-15	5.29	5.29	4.43	74593045	Balance	12	9
2024-03-08	5.35	5.29	6.21	145519238	Upward Expansion	27	12
2024-03-01	5.19	5.28	4.10	286745678	Upward Expansion	17	11
2024-02-23	5.45	5.28	10.50	79379537	Upward Expansion	37	18
2024-02-09	5.46	5.27	16.56	109418635	Upward Expansion	38	16
2024-02-02	5.27	5.26	18.62	66196738	Upward Expansion	31	17
2024-01-26	5.54	5.25	17.72	67405824	Upward Expansion	58	36
2024-01-19	5.34	5.23	17.32	53638327	Upward Expansion	51	31
2024-01-12	5.56	5.22	20.55	61386995	Upward Expansion	65	41
2024-01-05	5.56	5.20	19.26	72714552	Upward Expansion	69	41
2023-12-29	5.30	5.17	12.64	75959794	Upward Expansion	54	37
2023-12-22	5.37	5.17	16.84	51415113	Upward Expansion	59	61
2023-12-15	5.44	5.15	17.87	44673199	Upward Expansion	65	67
2023-12-08	5.39	5.14	16.11	36921610	Upward Expansion	61	62
2023-12-01	5.41	5.13	14.55	43533900	Balance	63	49
2023-11-24	5.38	5.11	14.01	47466006	Balance	58	28
2023-11-17	5.21	5.09	10.30	37944069	Balance	32	13
2023-11-10	5.10	5.08	8.74	37083285	Balance	21	11
2023-11-03	5.15	5.07	10.38	41086641	Upward Expansion	31	14
2023-10-27	5.25	5.06	13.13	37224546	Upward Expansion	40	19
2023-10-20	5.10	5.05	11.48	31054523	Upward Expansion	32	19
2023-10-13	5.20	5.04	10.16	36321146	Upward Expansion	50	37
2023-09-29	5.20	5.02	9.61	24847921	Upward Expansion	52	33

Price vs TrendBelow-2.7%

Trend directionFalling-3.6%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-13.2%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-2.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+8.5%

Price momentumNegative-4.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.57×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-61 / ±100

-19.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

64 /100

+39.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

601158 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance22

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion13

Deceleration38

Rotation Down72

Downward Expansion89

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 37%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 1%Downward Expansion 45%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	+1.2%
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-09-11	New	-0.5%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-08-28	Established	-3.7%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-03-27	New	-0.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-03-13	Developing	+4.5%
Balance	2025-11-28	2025-12-12	New	-4.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2025-11-21	New	-3.7%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-11-07	Established	+4.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-06	2025-06-20	New	-4.7%
Balance	2025-05-02	2025-05-30	Developing	+2.3%
Rotation Up	2025-04-11	2025-04-25	New	+0.2%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-04-04	New	+1.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-31	2025-03-14	Developing	+4.8%
Balance	2024-10-25	2025-01-24	Established	-6.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing71

Stage 2 · Advancing14

Stage 3 · Distribution22

Stage 4 · Declining86

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 72/100
Current Relative Strength: -2.76
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -4.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -0.0%
Utilities regime cohort: 67th percentile43 in cohort

Test 601158 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.91×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.57×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 601158 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 4.03falling

Slow Activity CNY 4.11falling

Trend Reference CNY 4.17-2.7% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 4.68-13.2% close margin

Structural low CNY 3.91shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +2.1%

Annualized volatility +11.3%

From structural high -17.3%

From structural low +3.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	27	+0.1%-11.9% to +13.5%	+51.9%	+40.7%	-1.3%	+81.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-0.4%-7.2% to +4.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.9%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-0.8%-12.1% to +9.6%	+40.0%	+60.0%	-1.6%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	2	+3.1%-2.6% to +8.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

601158 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map