Weekly structural research ยท SHZ ยท Utilities

003816 Stage Analysis

CGN Power Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CNY 4.43Tenure NewBenchmark 399001.SZ
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Rotation Up ยท Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

  • The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Direction 36โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 41/100directional strength
Maturity 9/100lifecycle context
Confidence 74/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Mixedstructural direction
Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation
Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +14.9%CNY 3.85 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-094.434.2519.62285996445Rotation Up3641
2026-10-024.234.2512.65280564401Rotation Up-030
2026-09-254.194.258.37323778076Rotation Up2039
2026-09-184.244.247.32484954944Balance1937
2026-09-114.334.2311.14546640289Balance725
2026-09-044.374.2112.01130061269Downward Expansion-813
2026-08-284.244.205.43136716835Downward Expansion-3329
2026-08-213.844.18-5.4755073943Downward Expansion-6656
2026-08-143.854.18-7.2298586100Downward Expansion-5534
2026-08-073.894.19-6.39128509184Deceleration-2522
2026-07-314.134.184.32104213790Rotation Down-1922
2026-07-244.064.170.88102821742Rotation Down-3440
2026-07-173.944.17-1.89169240555Rotation Down-2961
2026-07-103.864.16-12.77107930369Rotation Down-3365
2026-07-033.804.16-17.5586894867Rotation Down-4065
2026-06-263.854.16-18.0095073588Deceleration-4143
2026-06-193.994.16-17.02501338133Deceleration-1022
2026-06-124.274.16-5.41168773625Deceleration2421
2026-06-054.244.15-8.80147172023Upward Expansion3221
2026-05-294.584.14-3.51584756559Upward Expansion5842
2026-05-224.474.13-6.29831551749Upward Expansion6046
2026-05-154.784.110.09769447408Upward Expansion7662
2026-05-084.684.08-2.24432364636Upward Expansion7358
2026-05-014.584.04-1.72617221601Upward Expansion6957
2026-04-244.644.010.40733679040Upward Expansion7666
2026-04-174.393.98-4.95650541730Upward Expansion6579
2026-04-104.483.950.56663326786Upward Expansion6982
2026-04-034.523.938.501138495331Upward Expansion7888
2026-03-274.653.908.341960256792Upward Expansion9090
2026-03-204.113.87-4.94901657102Upward Expansion6274
2026-03-134.333.86-2.941307550751Upward Expansion8682
2026-03-064.153.84-6.401184243294Deceleration7865
2026-02-273.953.82-13.11715499711Deceleration5532
2026-02-133.833.82-13.72507373959Deceleration2915
2026-02-063.923.81-10.801010482246Deceleration4125
2026-01-303.853.80-14.55828525530Deceleration3117
2026-01-233.883.80-15.70814272479Deceleration3214
2026-01-163.853.79-15.80758958072Deceleration2711
2026-01-093.903.78-14.14681756233Deceleration2511
2026-01-023.763.77-14.00365142423Deceleration67
2025-12-263.863.76-12.77485140347Deceleration2814
2025-12-193.853.75-10.42492208934Deceleration2618
2025-12-123.853.74-11.61586699439Deceleration2822
2025-12-053.853.73-11.24568046105Deceleration3320
2025-11-283.773.72-12.37544055365Upward Expansion3927
2025-11-213.823.70-8.41551943297Upward Expansion5842
2025-11-144.003.69-9.40589707321Upward Expansion6472
2025-11-074.113.68-8.58690973009Upward Expansion7882
2025-10-313.943.65-12.47937226787Upward Expansion6373
2025-10-243.993.64-11.20844029104Upward Expansion7273
2025-10-173.963.63-8.091281543871Upward Expansion6951
2025-10-103.833.61-15.97699670758Upward Expansion4720
2025-10-033.623.61-22.12197873537Upward Expansion1715
2025-09-263.633.60-20.69588682167Upward Expansion2416
2025-09-193.643.60-20.31693349187Upward Expansion3522
2025-09-123.723.60-18.53691248789Upward Expansion5132
2025-09-053.673.60-18.36871506160Upward Expansion5233
2025-08-293.843.60-16.271320474732Upward Expansion7448
2025-08-223.703.59-16.93642479532Upward Expansion5435
2025-08-153.693.58-14.67624457798Upward Expansion5743
2025-08-083.723.58-11.20451251984Upward Expansion6357
2025-08-013.673.57-12.27754610305Upward Expansion5962
2025-07-253.753.57-12.68917221934Rotation Up7371
2025-07-183.693.58-13.11701710846Rotation Up3850
2025-07-113.693.59-12.25790583493Balance3244
2025-07-043.663.60-12.20658556093Balance2623
2025-06-273.563.61-14.35674500471Balance-810
2025-06-203.603.61-10.85773124856Balance-411
2025-06-133.573.63-13.01626953530Balance-1915
2025-06-063.573.64-13.94343413020Downward Expansion-2516
2025-05-303.583.66-12.91675331981Downward Expansion-3116
2025-05-233.553.67-14.69579493573Downward Expansion-3925
2025-05-163.493.69-16.74572230987Downward Expansion-5437
2025-05-093.483.71-16.74415586750Downward Expansion-5540
2025-05-023.433.73-16.25619904019Downward Expansion-6452
2025-04-253.443.76-16.40628165328Downward Expansion-6646
2025-04-183.533.78-13.34527246051Downward Expansion-5539
2025-04-113.443.79-16.241025688600Downward Expansion-7044
2025-04-043.603.81-17.21672862168Downward Expansion-5435
2025-03-283.553.82-20.391074470341Downward Expansion-5840
2025-03-213.563.86-21.05661046461Downward Expansion-5842
2025-03-143.593.90-22.69582957158Downward Expansion-5439
2025-03-073.553.94-22.77587521990Downward Expansion-6042
2025-02-283.533.98-21.85747500759Downward Expansion-6443
2025-02-213.684.01-21.41828928974Downward Expansion-5642
2025-02-143.594.06-22.05619796259Downward Expansion-6152
2025-02-073.624.10-20.38389315832Downward Expansion-6470
2025-01-313.604.13-17.91190071599Downward Expansion-6581
2025-01-243.534.17-20.66616667096Downward Expansion-7384
2025-01-173.534.20-19.71636442553Downward Expansion-7880
2025-01-103.514.22-17.24902481004Downward Expansion-8269
2025-01-033.794.24-11.43737822326Downward Expansion-6338
2024-12-274.034.25-12.21961095187Downward Expansion-4228
2024-12-203.914.25-14.65843618587Downward Expansion-5746
2024-12-133.894.25-15.40656083446Downward Expansion-5953
2024-12-063.964.25-14.31695981083Downward Expansion-5749
2024-11-293.814.25-15.82675719422Downward Expansion-6753
2024-11-223.954.25-11.06961297997Downward Expansion-6049
2024-11-154.014.25-11.97938358390Downward Expansion-3139
2024-11-084.034.25-14.25806983562Deceleration-2932
2024-11-013.984.25-9.49840486696Deceleration-3427
2024-10-254.004.24-10.101021928681Rotation Down-2316
2024-10-184.144.24-4.15948186577Rotation Down-1613
2024-10-114.124.22-1.301543391109Rotation Down-1924
2024-10-044.394.210.85569084159Rotation Down-2033
2024-09-274.094.194.751156124757Rotation Down-2238
2024-09-203.864.1817.07393883195Deceleration-3440
2024-09-133.854.1819.12835618125Deceleration-418
2024-09-064.134.1726.71812763288Upward Expansion2015
2024-08-304.664.1540.54637982046Upward Expansion4838
2024-08-234.864.1151.67725559949Upward Expansion6949
2024-08-164.714.0546.19581802408Upward Expansion6251
2024-08-094.624.0044.87689840778Upward Expansion6458
2024-08-024.603.9543.65928305936Upward Expansion6769
2024-07-264.953.9055.99866701923Upward Expansion8493
2024-07-194.873.8350.70748287454Upward Expansion8994
2024-07-124.683.7747.66873440251Upward Expansion8691
2024-07-054.583.7149.37647476735Upward Expansion8890
2024-06-284.433.6544.03751004091Upward Expansion8586
2024-06-214.163.6033.95525236807Upward Expansion6772
2024-06-144.183.5633.27628704803Upward Expansion7272
2024-06-074.223.5135.92701958385Deceleration7753
2024-05-314.013.4629.06562126383Deceleration6240
2024-05-243.913.4326.40597960558Deceleration4634
2024-05-173.823.3920.72538697048Upward Expansion5438
2024-05-103.903.3724.10539991001Upward Expansion5948
2024-05-033.933.3428.01279713927Upward Expansion6252
2024-04-263.883.3129.39724149787Upward Expansion6252
2024-04-194.053.2839.27715729927Upward Expansion7560
2024-04-123.913.2536.86613419691Upward Expansion7054
2024-04-053.823.2230.68357279257Upward Expansion6451
2024-03-293.863.1935.75652153814Upward Expansion7259
2024-03-223.683.1628.52600239184Upward Expansion6458
2024-03-153.653.1428.18903744280Upward Expansion6663
2024-03-083.953.1143.66708333675Upward Expansion8886
2024-03-013.653.0833.77758210222Upward Expansion7185
2024-02-233.773.0545.20800206391Upward Expansion8994
2024-02-093.593.0344.08919487649Upward Expansion8493
2024-02-023.563.0058.651166477570Upward Expansion9195
2024-01-263.412.9842.25804990812Upward Expansion9091
2024-01-193.202.9634.77669041671Upward Expansion7582
2024-01-123.282.9536.18730038908Rotation Up8984
2024-01-053.142.9429.79574776171Rotation Up6951
2023-12-292.972.9318.79418772430Balance1521
2023-12-222.982.9223.89459279410Balance1518
2023-12-152.942.9220.68426865617Rotation Down-67
2023-12-082.902.9217.77450419873Rotation Down-2825
2023-12-012.892.9215.96559189236Rotation Down-6054
2023-11-242.812.9212.14294391246Rotation Down-3958
2023-11-172.822.9211.46370208695Rotation Down-2850
2023-11-102.802.9211.23394097645Deceleration-3342
2023-11-032.862.9215.32497183773Deceleration-2426
2023-10-272.892.9117.97426675740Deceleration1016
2023-10-202.932.9122.68417257912Deceleration2416
2023-10-132.952.9018.47365530617Upward Expansion4024
2023-09-293.002.8920.48290536634Upward Expansion5639
Price vs TrendAbove+4.1%
Trend directionRising+1.7%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+14.9%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+12.2%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+19.6%
Relative strength directionImproving+32.4%
Price momentumNegative-1.1%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.74ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

36 / ยฑ100

+29.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

41 /100

+16.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance37
Rotation Up59
Upward Expansion46
Deceleration26
Rotation Down17
Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 6%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 18%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 22%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Rotation Up2026-09-252026-10-09New+5.7%
Balance2026-09-112026-09-18New-2.1%
Downward Expansion2026-08-142026-09-04New+13.5%
Deceleration2026-08-072026-08-07New+0.0%
Rotation Down2026-07-032026-07-31Developing+8.6%
Deceleration2026-06-122026-06-26New-9.8%
Upward Expansion2026-03-132026-06-05Established-2.2%
Deceleration2025-12-052026-03-06Established+7.8%
Upward Expansion2025-08-012025-11-28Established+2.7%
Rotation Up2025-07-182025-07-25New+1.6%
Balance2025-06-132025-07-11Developing+3.5%
Downward Expansion2024-11-152025-06-06Extended-10.9%
Deceleration2024-11-012024-11-08New+1.5%
Rotation Down2024-09-272024-10-25Developing-2.4%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing53
Stage 2 ยท Advancing80
Stage 3 ยท Distribution50
Stage 4 ยท Declining20

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2A ยท Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
78/100
Current Relative Strength
19.62
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-1.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+10.5%
Utilities regime cohort
100th percentile1 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.26ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.74ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity CNY 4.30rising
Slow Activity CNY 4.18rising
Trend Reference CNY 4.25+4.1% close margin
Current Fair Value CNY 3.85+14.9% close margin
Structural low CNY 3.75shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +3.8%
Annualized volatility +28.7%
From structural high -10.3%
From structural low +21.7%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs 399001.SZ Regime survived Read
Near term4+8.3%+0.0% to +21.2%+75.0%+75.0%+9.5%+0.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate4+9.1%+7.3% to +24.7%+100.0%+100.0%+9.4%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended4+11.4%+4.3% to +49.1%+100.0%+100.0%+22.6%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle3+10.0%+7.5% to +40.5%+100.0%+100.0%+23.7%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context