Weekly structural research · TAI · Financial Services

2852 Stage Analysis

The First Insurance Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close TWD 27.50Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 49−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 43/100directional strength

Maturity 77/100lifecycle context

Confidence 45/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +23.9%TWD 22.20 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	27.50	26.19	-22.45	1281176	Upward Expansion	49	43
2026-09-25	27.95	26.11	-21.29	810002	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-09-18	28.30	26.04	-19.72	1361840	Upward Expansion	68	65
2026-09-11	28.05	25.95	-19.55	1357403	Upward Expansion	68	85
2026-09-04	28.30	25.87	-20.32	1503495	Upward Expansion	74	89
2026-08-28	28.10	25.78	-21.33	519670	Upward Expansion	74	85
2026-08-21	29.20	25.71	-17.07	1253975	Upward Expansion	96	93
2026-08-14	26.95	25.61	-25.08	175000	Upward Expansion	68	59
2026-08-07	26.85	25.58	-23.48	387010	Upward Expansion	65	53
2026-07-31	27.00	25.56	-21.81	1130025	Upward Expansion	73	61
2026-07-24	26.65	25.53	-24.49	150210	Upward Expansion	65	66
2026-07-17	26.50	25.53	-23.93	413183	Rotation Up	66	72
2026-07-10	26.80	25.53	-28.37	0	Rotation Up	48	73
2026-07-03	26.85	25.51	-31.26	1894308	Rotation Up	54	74
2026-06-26	26.30	25.50	-30.22	2531852	Rotation Up	35	67
2026-06-19	26.35	25.49	-33.77	7628167	Rotation Up	40	66
2026-06-12	26.05	25.48	-31.94	3180375	Rotation Up	35	51
2026-06-05	26.19	25.45	-33.73	3640646	Downward Expansion	38	37
2026-05-29	25.34	25.40	-36.16	1955567	Downward Expansion	-13	17
2026-05-22	25.34	25.39	-33.26	2759860	Downward Expansion	-21	16
2026-05-15	24.87	25.38	-33.50	3130450	Downward Expansion	-38	26
2026-05-08	24.59	25.38	-35.70	1259955	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2026-05-01	24.54	25.40	-32.35	1114277	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2026-04-24	24.50	25.41	-33.34	1458216	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2026-04-17	24.59	25.44	-30.09	1667112	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2026-04-10	24.50	25.47	-28.40	835012	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2026-04-03	24.31	25.49	-23.58	1246150	Rotation Down	-70	81
2026-03-27	24.31	25.51	-25.53	1587340	Rotation Down	-48	70
2026-03-20	24.22	25.49	-27.39	3307055	Rotation Down	-44	62
2026-03-13	24.59	25.49	-26.56	5925268	Deceleration	-40	49
2026-03-06	25.34	25.48	-25.27	2204146	Deceleration	-4	16
2026-02-27	25.77	25.41	-28.29	1933223	Deceleration	10	16
2026-02-13	25.58	25.35	-25.36	890341	Deceleration	7	15
2026-02-06	25.72	25.29	-20.92	1275150	Deceleration	26	17
2026-01-30	25.48	25.24	-22.51	2125269	Deceleration	23	15
2026-01-23	25.86	25.23	-21.32	2607230	Deceleration	38	22
2026-01-16	26.38	25.22	-18.51	2035453	Upward Expansion	47	30
2026-01-09	26.05	25.17	-16.70	1479479	Upward Expansion	46	33
2026-01-02	26.14	25.12	-13.87	700067	Upward Expansion	59	44
2025-12-26	26.19	25.06	-11.38	1379623	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-12-19	26.57	24.99	-7.35	2855623	Upward Expansion	71	77
2025-12-12	26.43	24.93	-9.47	1029439	Upward Expansion	70	82
2025-12-05	26.47	24.86	-8.65	1471166	Upward Expansion	75	82
2025-11-28	26.38	24.80	-7.85	2431798	Upward Expansion	78	79
2025-11-21	26.10	24.79	-4.67	2441487	Upward Expansion	74	66
2025-11-14	26.00	24.74	-8.24	3234701	Balance	74	56
2025-11-07	25.20	24.68	-11.74	1461076	Balance	45	23
2025-10-31	24.73	24.62	-15.11	960334	Balance	34	16
2025-10-24	25.06	24.68	-11.75	668018	Balance	39	22
2025-10-17	24.97	24.73	-11.24	2080413	Balance	11	11
2025-10-10	24.87	24.76	-11.46	958380	Rotation Up	24	23
2025-10-03	25.11	24.78	-8.75	823466	Rotation Up	29	42
2025-09-26	24.92	24.76	-5.13	1269284	Rotation Up	19	40
2025-09-19	25.25	24.72	-3.71	1011201	Balance	21	34
2025-09-12	25.58	24.67	-1.89	2334751	Balance	27	26
2025-09-05	25.16	24.55	0.53	1811210	Balance	8	12
2025-08-29	24.73	24.43	0.08	2972829	Rotation Down	1	5
2025-08-22	23.89	24.34	-1.31	1406083	Rotation Down	-27	30
2025-08-15	24.07	24.26	-2.65	1824617	Rotation Down	-26	39
2025-08-08	24.40	24.18	0.15	2093260	Rotation Down	-28	41
2025-08-01	23.27	24.09	-1.92	2209649	Deceleration	-33	44
2025-07-25	23.89	24.04	1.17	3449767	Deceleration	-0	13
2025-07-18	23.89	23.94	1.36	8371700	Deceleration	3	4
2025-07-11	24.29	23.88	6.26	6353992	Deceleration	29	22
2025-07-04	24.99	23.81	10.71	4581031	Deceleration	38	27
2025-06-27	25.55	23.70	13.54	2684708	Deceleration	49	28
2025-06-20	25.07	23.55	14.62	4063489	Deceleration	28	14
2025-06-13	24.38	23.42	11.80	1417787	Deceleration	17	13
2025-06-06	24.38	23.28	14.24	1625289	Deceleration	20	13
2025-05-30	24.20	23.13	15.40	857441	Deceleration	31	17
2025-05-23	24.59	22.99	16.04	2385211	Deceleration	38	25
2025-05-16	24.55	22.83	15.17	2625781	Deceleration	39	27
2025-05-09	24.38	22.66	19.71	4922078	Deceleration	41	27
2025-05-02	26.12	22.50	29.50	4485711	Deceleration	58	33
2025-04-25	24.73	22.28	29.27	5745904	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-04-18	24.16	22.12	30.44	3948166	Upward Expansion	51	44
2025-04-11	23.51	21.96	27.17	11497050	Upward Expansion	66	60
2025-04-04	26.38	21.82	31.89	3390442	Upward Expansion	77	91
2025-03-28	26.60	21.64	32.27	8601615	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-03-21	25.90	21.46	26.43	3867430	Upward Expansion	88	95
2025-03-14	25.47	21.25	26.58	12693774	Upward Expansion	91	96
2025-03-07	24.51	21.04	19.45	3634876	Upward Expansion	89	94
2025-02-28	23.68	20.89	13.70	4940131	Upward Expansion	84	87
2025-02-21	23.72	20.76	11.17	4449616	Upward Expansion	89	79
2025-02-14	21.94	20.64	5.78	1333601	Upward Expansion	62	44
2025-02-07	21.81	20.60	3.94	2686511	Upward Expansion	59	41
2025-01-24	22.03	20.55	4.96	1389300	Upward Expansion	68	46
2025-01-17	21.42	20.50	3.90	1318543	Upward Expansion	48	38
2025-01-10	21.50	20.48	5.11	1112314	Upward Expansion	49	38
2025-01-03	21.81	20.44	7.25	1097525	Upward Expansion	69	53
2024-12-27	21.63	20.42	4.85	984226	Upward Expansion	66	69
2024-12-20	21.07	20.40	5.75	1339791	Upward Expansion	67	82
2024-12-13	21.90	20.37	7.64	1735789	Upward Expansion	74	90
2024-12-06	22.29	20.34	8.92	3760394	Rotation Up	93	97
2024-11-29	21.63	20.29	10.33	2225081	Rotation Up	57	75
2024-11-22	21.20	20.24	5.32	1755742	Rotation Up	41	61
2024-11-15	20.98	20.10	5.10	3698783	Balance	33	40
2024-11-08	20.29	19.96	-1.82	1106878	Balance	13	15
2024-11-01	19.98	19.84	-0.07	983648	Balance	-4	5
2024-10-25	19.89	19.73	-2.90	1037071	Deceleration	-18	11
2024-10-18	19.89	19.61	-3.49	1158464	Deceleration	-3	10
2024-10-11	19.37	19.49	-3.61	917056	Deceleration	-11	19
2024-10-04	19.50	19.38	-0.35	776276	Deceleration	3	13
2024-09-27	19.76	19.26	-1.26	899679	Deceleration	8	16
2024-09-20	19.63	19.11	1.06	863051	Deceleration	8	8
2024-09-13	19.46	18.96	2.09	1274086	Deceleration	20	17
2024-09-06	19.46	18.82	3.75	3172859	Deceleration	26	22
2024-08-30	20.89	18.68	7.35	3117736	Deceleration	49	32
2024-08-23	21.07	18.49	9.10	2379353	Deceleration	42	24
2024-08-16	19.85	18.30	2.22	2009702	Deceleration	17	18
2024-08-09	19.11	18.14	2.63	3874930	Deceleration	15	18
2024-08-02	20.02	18.01	6.90	4768281	Deceleration	38	26
2024-07-26	19.59	17.86	2.60	3405665	Deceleration	41	29
2024-07-19	20.14	17.72	2.25	2210588	Upward Expansion	46	38
2024-07-12	20.68	17.55	0.63	2664285	Upward Expansion	51	47
2024-07-05	20.47	17.38	1.39	1466287	Upward Expansion	51	50
2024-06-28	20.39	17.21	3.50	2588733	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-06-21	21.01	17.04	5.94	2944028	Upward Expansion	71	66
2024-06-14	20.34	16.84	6.39	5185508	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-06-07	21.13	16.67	14.22	4158351	Upward Expansion	76	71
2024-05-31	20.93	16.46	17.32	4349141	Upward Expansion	75	90
2024-05-24	20.39	16.24	12.82	6580873	Upward Expansion	71	90
2024-05-17	20.84	16.02	17.50	11359785	Upward Expansion	91	97
2024-05-10	20.80	15.79	20.93	13735141	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-05-03	20.14	15.57	19.78	18069687	Upward Expansion	99	95
2024-04-26	17.15	15.36	3.53	2550475	Upward Expansion	83	77
2024-04-19	16.69	15.26	3.96	3544069	Upward Expansion	72	79
2024-04-12	16.73	15.16	-1.74	11137860	Upward Expansion	79	87
2024-04-05	16.61	15.08	-0.51	2434191	Upward Expansion	83	91
2024-03-29	16.40	15.00	-1.48	2509642	Upward Expansion	84	90
2024-03-22	16.11	14.90	-2.84	2407481	Upward Expansion	78	82
2024-03-15	16.11	14.81	-0.10	6779261	Upward Expansion	81	72
2024-03-08	15.78	14.71	-2.61	4376554	Deceleration	74	49
2024-03-01	15.28	14.64	-1.62	1288657	Deceleration	51	31
2024-02-23	15.32	14.57	-1.26	1182746	Deceleration	54	32
2024-02-16	15.24	14.51	-0.45	817595	Deceleration	40	30
2024-02-09	15.15	14.44	1.69	256000	Deceleration	41	27
2024-02-02	15.20	14.37	2.15	707637	Upward Expansion	42	27
2024-01-26	15.40	14.30	3.92	1463816	Upward Expansion	51	36
2024-01-19	15.03	14.21	3.18	2468407	Upward Expansion	47	38
2024-01-12	15.15	14.14	4.99	1446497	Upward Expansion	60	48
2024-01-05	15.57	14.06	7.79	1569040	Upward Expansion	73	61
2023-12-29	15.40	13.96	4.20	1422598	Upward Expansion	69	60
2023-12-22	15.11	13.87	4.12	1605152	Upward Expansion	66	66
2023-12-15	15.53	13.78	6.50	1695662	Upward Expansion	77	86
2023-12-08	15.40	13.69	7.47	1440238	Upward Expansion	78	90
2023-12-01	15.15	13.60	5.53	882021	Upward Expansion	71	84
2023-11-24	15.07	13.51	5.98	1100404	Upward Expansion	72	82
2023-11-17	15.32	13.42	8.33	3514491	Upward Expansion	86	80
2023-11-10	14.86	13.33	8.48	3585267	Upward Expansion	79	53
2023-11-03	14.24	13.25	5.07	1230648	Deceleration	66	44
2023-10-27	13.91	13.19	4.98	711309	Deceleration	44	35
2023-10-20	13.83	13.14	2.42	1676649	Upward Expansion	56	42
2023-10-13	14.16	13.09	2.75	1027302	Upward Expansion	67	52
2023-10-06	13.99	13.03	3.24	740457	Upward Expansion	62	55
2023-09-29	13.91	13.01	3.69	1047791	Upward Expansion	65	72

Price vs TrendAbove+5.0%

Trend directionRising+2.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+23.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-22.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+8.8%

Price momentumPositive+13.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.17×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

49 / ±100

-25.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

43 /100

-45.9 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

2852 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance21

Rotation Up42

Upward Expansion69

Deceleration65

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 7%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 48%Deceleration 27%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 6%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-10-02	Developing	+3.2%
Rotation Up	2026-06-12	2026-07-17	Developing	+1.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-10	2026-06-05	Developing	+6.9%
Rotation Down	2026-03-20	2026-04-03	New	+0.4%
Deceleration	2026-01-23	2026-03-13	Developing	-4.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-01-16	Developing	+1.1%
Balance	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	+4.1%
Rotation Up	2025-09-26	2025-10-10	New	-0.2%
Balance	2025-09-05	2025-09-19	New	+0.4%
Rotation Down	2025-08-08	2025-08-29	New	+1.3%
Deceleration	2025-05-02	2025-08-01	Established	-10.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-04-25	Established	+12.9%
Rotation Up	2024-11-22	2024-12-06	New	+5.1%
Balance	2024-11-01	2024-11-15	New	+5.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing29

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution64

Stage 4 · Declining32

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 19/100
Current Relative Strength: -22.45
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +13.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -35.7%
Financial Services regime cohort: 3th percentile38 in cohort

Test 2852 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.76×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.17×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 2852 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 27.91falling

Slow Activity TWD 26.95rising

Trend Reference TWD 26.19+5.0% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 22.20+23.9% close margin

Structural low TWD 24.26shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +2.4%

Annualized volatility +14.5%

From structural high -6.5%

From structural low +16.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	35	+0.7%-9.0% to +24.3%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-0.3%	+74.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	+3.4%-5.6% to +26.3%	+69.2%	+69.2%	+6.5%	+46.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+13.0%-2.9% to +20.8%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+10.2%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+22.2%+17.2% to +44.7%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+9.1%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

2852 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map