Weekly structural research · NYSE · Basic Materials

ASH Stage Analysis

Ashland Global Holdings Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 70.57Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 31−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 19/100directional strength

Maturity 60/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +4.3%USD 67.68 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	70.57	63.75	6.65	3377548	Deceleration	31	19
2026-10-02	69.52	63.05	6.73	2875569	Deceleration	34	22
2026-09-25	69.06	62.57	6.24	3457539	Deceleration	38	23
2026-09-18	69.06	62.33	8.00	3799836	Upward Expansion	44	33
2026-09-11	70.91	62.16	11.21	2665814	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-09-04	72.93	61.80	13.86	3131783	Upward Expansion	61	50
2026-08-28	73.96	61.48	15.89	2351878	Upward Expansion	66	65
2026-08-21	72.26	61.02	14.03	2304180	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-08-14	73.30	60.69	14.32	3717368	Upward Expansion	69	74
2026-08-07	76.03	60.32	19.09	4063411	Upward Expansion	84	79
2026-07-31	72.21	59.83	17.57	6062834	Upward Expansion	79	68
2026-07-24	66.40	59.39	9.73	3036453	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-07-17	68.64	59.14	13.05	2623208	Upward Expansion	72	71
2026-07-10	66.75	58.81	8.56	3053620	Upward Expansion	67	75
2026-07-03	67.01	58.53	10.58	2992211	Rotation Up	72	78
2026-06-26	63.94	58.22	7.94	10035452	Rotation Up	37	62
2026-06-19	67.92	57.82	12.11	3415994	Rotation Up	44	61
2026-06-12	64.98	57.20	8.52	7565619	Balance	36	39
2026-06-05	56.20	56.71	-5.47	4125389	Balance	-16	11
2026-05-29	57.48	56.47	-5.87	3704158	Balance	-21	11
2026-05-22	56.80	56.15	-5.79	5207329	Balance	-12	11
2026-05-15	54.11	55.91	-9.61	7023993	Balance	-18	14
2026-05-08	54.61	55.70	-8.86	4789530	Balance	-4	5
2026-05-01	51.45	55.43	-12.39	6943010	Balance	-15	11
2026-04-24	56.99	55.30	-2.36	2265135	Balance	10	13
2026-04-17	58.10	55.00	-0.25	3091034	Rotation Down	7	7
2026-04-10	56.01	54.68	0.24	3158931	Rotation Down	-19	32
2026-04-03	54.00	54.54	-0.12	2208985	Rotation Down	-23	45
2026-03-27	52.80	54.53	0.71	3453136	Rotation Down	-23	40
2026-03-20	48.46	54.60	-10.05	4386449	Deceleration	-41	45
2026-03-13	49.61	54.82	-10.05	3308679	Deceleration	-14	21
2026-03-06	55.05	54.91	-2.22	2452026	Upward Expansion	25	18
2026-02-27	61.91	54.76	7.36	3845944	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-02-20	63.91	54.34	10.03	3417698	Upward Expansion	70	50
2026-02-13	60.09	53.87	4.34	3577570	Upward Expansion	61	48
2026-02-06	63.28	53.52	8.09	4533961	Upward Expansion	72	58
2026-01-30	60.32	53.14	2.58	2396014	Upward Expansion	65	58
2026-01-23	62.45	52.87	6.27	1942135	Upward Expansion	74	67
2026-01-16	62.03	52.43	4.64	3884128	Upward Expansion	77	78
2026-01-09	61.48	51.94	2.76	3179099	Upward Expansion	80	84
2026-01-02	59.03	51.50	-0.36	1888366	Upward Expansion	70	84
2025-12-26	58.88	51.16	-2.26	1579249	Upward Expansion	73	85
2025-12-19	58.64	50.80	-1.94	5677715	Upward Expansion	78	84
2025-12-12	58.34	50.43	-3.00	5273408	Upward Expansion	81	78
2025-12-05	57.78	50.18	-5.18	7293430	Balance	79	61
2025-11-28	51.80	49.86	-15.37	2779445	Balance	17	16
2025-11-21	49.33	49.72	-17.32	4049314	Balance	-3	6
2025-11-14	50.44	49.79	-18.00	5357423	Balance	-0	6
2025-11-07	49.01	49.73	-21.07	5239201	Rotation Down	-13	13
2025-10-31	47.89	49.72	-25.03	3184661	Rotation Down	-30	28
2025-10-24	49.47	49.70	-23.15	2477147	Rotation Down	-20	39
2025-10-17	47.85	49.95	-25.24	3511050	Rotation Down	-23	52
2025-10-10	46.52	50.17	-27.10	3593836	Rotation Down	-42	47
2025-10-03	47.65	50.45	-28.15	4321793	Balance	-34	35
2025-09-26	47.78	50.74	-28.17	3521829	Balance	-22	22
2025-09-19	48.71	51.10	-28.02	3512393	Rotation Up	-6	8
2025-09-12	51.68	51.55	-23.77	2081800	Rotation Up	29	48
2025-09-05	53.77	51.90	-20.47	1882306	Rotation Up	30	53
2025-08-29	54.99	52.13	-19.42	2139746	Balance	30	47
2025-08-22	54.98	52.33	-20.44	1911063	Balance	11	23
2025-08-15	52.35	52.76	-24.92	2545356	Balance	-4	4
2025-08-08	50.59	53.30	-27.58	3618134	Balance	-31	18
2025-08-01	49.09	53.81	-28.83	4341158	Balance	-25	14
2025-07-25	49.83	54.42	-30.58	2196000	Downward Expansion	-18	15
2025-07-18	49.61	55.04	-30.91	1849263	Downward Expansion	-21	17
2025-07-11	51.93	55.68	-28.28	2516145	Downward Expansion	-31	18
2025-07-04	52.18	56.34	-29.05	1900067	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2025-06-27	49.28	57.01	-32.70	2860806	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2025-06-20	47.43	57.86	-33.91	2892709	Downward Expansion	-61	44
2025-06-13	48.21	58.79	-33.90	2840425	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-06-06	48.73	59.63	-34.33	2466576	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-05-30	48.13	60.57	-35.07	2183822	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2025-05-23	47.52	61.66	-35.73	2171265	Downward Expansion	-69	54
2025-05-16	50.86	62.74	-33.94	3134044	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2025-05-09	48.29	63.83	-34.89	3414227	Downward Expansion	-68	62
2025-05-02	47.65	64.94	-36.89	4372636	Downward Expansion	-72	66
2025-04-25	51.21	66.07	-31.14	2346285	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2025-04-18	48.66	67.15	-32.40	1933936	Downward Expansion	-73	68
2025-04-11	48.69	68.30	-34.17	4488825	Downward Expansion	-79	70
2025-04-04	47.41	69.43	-33.08	4148599	Downward Expansion	-90	74
2025-03-28	56.89	70.55	-27.79	3775879	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2025-03-21	54.42	71.50	-32.63	5546012	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2025-03-14	55.01	72.48	-32.27	3599251	Downward Expansion	-82	82
2025-03-07	56.27	73.34	-33.04	4963405	Downward Expansion	-83	79
2025-02-28	58.63	74.05	-33.08	3325833	Downward Expansion	-78	83
2025-02-21	62.23	75.06	-30.38	2688982	Downward Expansion	-64	81
2025-02-14	62.15	76.02	-32.22	3475876	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2025-02-07	60.77	76.95	-33.37	4137195	Downward Expansion	-80	70
2025-01-31	60.80	77.92	-34.05	5633356	Downward Expansion	-85	66
2025-01-24	68.06	78.82	-27.61	1947714	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2025-01-17	68.40	79.54	-26.39	2407939	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2025-01-10	66.00	80.32	-27.26	1539624	Downward Expansion	-78	82
2025-01-03	67.40	81.16	-27.59	1896197	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2024-12-27	68.54	82.07	-27.18	1041460	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2024-12-20	68.80	82.96	-26.89	3443524	Downward Expansion	-82	76
2024-12-13	71.61	83.80	-25.81	2695693	Downward Expansion	-75	73
2024-12-06	72.29	84.56	-26.03	2226010	Downward Expansion	-77	82
2024-11-29	74.75	85.24	-23.34	1305050	Downward Expansion	-70	80
2024-11-22	75.31	85.77	-22.28	1646848	Downward Expansion	-70	79
2024-11-15	73.32	86.28	-23.43	2623809	Downward Expansion	-85	82
2024-11-08	77.13	86.86	-21.46	3305877	Downward Expansion	-75	60
2024-11-01	80.81	87.29	-14.08	1584104	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2024-10-25	79.87	87.58	-16.52	1532272	Downward Expansion	-64	40
2024-10-18	83.60	87.98	-13.81	1413251	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2024-10-11	81.69	88.20	-15.34	1455579	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2024-10-04	81.54	88.52	-14.78	1918347	Downward Expansion	-60	38
2024-09-27	83.48	88.81	-12.85	3132895	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2024-09-20	83.19	89.03	-13.01	3804714	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2024-09-13	82.60	89.21	-12.77	2101147	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2024-09-06	80.99	89.35	-11.36	1441978	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2024-08-30	85.26	89.50	-10.80	1881251	Downward Expansion	-61	71
2024-08-23	84.01	89.52	-12.19	1888344	Rotation Down	-61	72
2024-08-16	80.58	89.25	-14.89	2442627	Rotation Down	-48	65
2024-08-09	77.83	89.04	-14.90	4625386	Rotation Down	-56	57
2024-08-02	88.73	88.99	-3.44	1086846	Balance	2	7
2024-07-26	91.22	88.54	-3.12	1620864	Balance	9	12
2024-07-19	90.04	88.14	-5.41	1202614	Balance	7	17
2024-07-12	89.81	87.82	-7.76	1168978	Balance	9	18
2024-07-05	87.84	87.50	-9.14	1313189	Upward Expansion	-0	14
2024-06-28	89.61	87.19	-5.83	1876542	Upward Expansion	30	17
2024-06-21	91.86	86.78	-3.74	2474339	Upward Expansion	44	31
2024-06-14	90.96	86.19	-4.18	2074293	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-06-07	94.96	85.56	1.48	2078841	Upward Expansion	69	64
2024-05-31	95.00	84.65	2.66	1280621	Upward Expansion	74	71
2024-05-24	94.13	83.91	1.13	1468855	Upward Expansion	72	69
2024-05-17	94.51	83.12	1.35	1277346	Upward Expansion	78	64
2024-05-10	92.60	82.36	0.67	1348752	Upward Expansion	71	53
2024-05-03	90.54	81.65	-0.05	2275056	Upward Expansion	51	44
2024-04-26	90.73	81.09	0.43	1633668	Upward Expansion	50	42
2024-04-19	90.67	80.62	2.44	1849681	Upward Expansion	62	50
2024-04-12	89.95	80.19	-2.03	1460349	Upward Expansion	61	53
2024-04-05	89.55	79.79	-4.50	1325919	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-03-29	91.97	79.39	-3.43	1134414	Upward Expansion	72	70
2024-03-22	89.98	79.03	-5.78	1501998	Upward Expansion	67	82
2024-03-15	91.42	78.67	-2.76	1821056	Upward Expansion	77	90
2024-03-08	90.22	78.29	-4.60	1462909	Upward Expansion	75	88
2024-03-01	90.16	78.06	-5.47	1648036	Upward Expansion	78	89
2024-02-23	88.57	77.89	-6.86	1451031	Rotation Up	76	86
2024-02-16	86.69	77.79	-7.95	2293770	Rotation Up	48	69
2024-02-09	85.44	77.72	-10.18	2415384	Balance	44	54
2024-02-02	86.13	77.58	-8.84	6189747	Balance	42	24
2024-01-26	75.71	77.40	-19.26	2007078	Balance	-31	22
2024-01-19	74.33	77.58	-20.65	3951060	Balance	-34	20
2024-01-12	76.47	77.65	-18.25	1607760	Rotation Up	-8	11
2024-01-05	75.03	77.78	-19.11	2260314	Rotation Up	12	21
2023-12-29	79.31	77.97	-16.62	1676614	Rotation Up	23	37
2023-12-22	80.33	78.10	-16.04	2073340	Downward Expansion	29	37
2023-12-15	80.19	78.12	-16.17	3231911	Downward Expansion	9	25
2023-12-08	78.52	78.24	-16.65	2378271	Downward Expansion	-11	20
2023-12-01	77.38	78.42	-18.36	2353193	Downward Expansion	-33	24
2023-11-24	74.21	78.65	-21.74	1807600	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2023-11-17	71.99	79.32	-24.00	2173414	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2023-11-10	67.83	80.09	-27.44	3122384	Downward Expansion	-81	75
2023-11-03	72.65	81.03	-21.93	2616054	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2023-10-27	70.50	81.77	-20.38	1883930	Downward Expansion	-79	90
2023-10-20	71.81	82.59	-21.52	2532282	Downward Expansion	-77	85

Price vs TrendAbove+10.7%

Trend directionRising+6.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+4.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+6.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.9%

Price momentumPositive+26.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.14×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

31 / ±100

-26.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

19 /100

-24.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ASH Directional State ↗ ASH Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance52

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion53

Deceleration93

Rotation Down29

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 3%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	+2.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-09-18	Developing	+3.5%
Rotation Up	2026-06-19	2026-07-03	New	-1.3%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-06-12	Developing	+14.0%
Rotation Down	2026-03-27	2026-04-17	New	+10.0%
Deceleration	2026-03-13	2026-03-20	New	-2.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-03-06	Established	-5.6%
Balance	2025-11-14	2025-12-05	New	+14.6%
Rotation Down	2025-10-10	2025-11-07	Developing	+5.3%
Balance	2025-09-26	2025-10-03	New	-0.3%
Rotation Up	2025-09-05	2025-09-19	New	-9.4%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-08-29	Developing	+12.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-30	2025-07-25	Extended	-41.6%
Rotation Down	2024-08-09	2024-08-23	New	+7.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing26

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution48

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 77/100
Current Relative Strength: 6.65
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +26.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +11.1%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 46th percentile26 in cohort

Test ASH trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.86×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.14×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ASH Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 69.81falling

Slow Activity USD 67.70rising

Trend Reference USD 63.75+10.7% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 67.68+4.3% close margin

Structural low USD 47.88shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +6.3%

Annualized volatility +35.0%

From structural high -9.3%

From structural low +52.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	-1.2%-7.1% to +12.9%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-2.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	3	+4.1%-3.9% to +31.0%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+12.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+12.5%-17.9% to +42.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+14.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+10.7%+10.7% to +10.7%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+16.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ASH Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map