Weekly structural research · LSE · Technology

SKL Stage Analysis

Skillcast Group plc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close GBP 0.415Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -70−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 51/100directional strength

Maturity 62/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -5.6%GBP 0.4396 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.415	0.4591	-26.25	29603	Downward Expansion	-70	51
2026-10-02	0.4177	0.4644	-25.80	199389	Downward Expansion	-73	52
2026-09-25	0.4276	0.4714	-26.32	76318	Downward Expansion	-66	48
2026-09-18	0.4276	0.4797	-26.71	30624	Downward Expansion	-70	51
2026-09-11	0.4326	0.4885	-26.45	279674	Downward Expansion	-69	51
2026-09-04	0.4376	0.4977	-27.35	8906	Downward Expansion	-65	50
2026-08-28	0.44	0.5074	-27.43	3353	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2026-08-21	0.44	0.518	-27.88	7250	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2026-08-14	0.44	0.5286	-27.92	11584	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2026-08-07	0.44	0.5394	-29.40	5925	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2026-07-31	0.44	0.5492	-29.68	2935	Downward Expansion	-64	48
2026-07-24	0.45	0.5571	-27.65	8940	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2026-07-17	0.45	0.5657	-27.12	17063	Downward Expansion	-49	39
2026-07-10	0.46	0.575	-25.00	225	Downward Expansion	-43	38
2026-07-03	0.46	0.582	-26.47	298	Downward Expansion	-43	38
2026-06-26	0.4657	0.5868	-24.58	25275	Downward Expansion	-44	42
2026-06-19	0.4707	0.5914	-22.91	25095	Downward Expansion	-48	49
2026-06-12	0.4707	0.5959	-23.87	3378	Downward Expansion	-61	59
2026-06-05	0.441	0.6003	-28.11	18922	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-05-29	0.441	0.6058	-28.50	125787	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2026-05-22	0.441	0.6112	-29.01	77275	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2026-05-15	0.4261	0.6167	-29.71	27983	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2026-05-08	0.4162	0.6226	-31.81	116068	Downward Expansion	-87	91
2026-05-01	0.4657	0.6289	-24.93	123444	Downward Expansion	-80	88
2026-04-24	0.5103	0.6335	-18.00	53893	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2026-04-17	0.5004	0.6366	-21.66	53491	Rotation Down	-77	90
2026-04-10	0.5004	0.64	-21.05	30943	Rotation Down	-55	81
2026-04-03	0.5202	0.6421	-16.56	28917	Rotation Down	-53	77
2026-03-27	0.55	0.6435	-7.42	32665	Rotation Down	-41	68
2026-03-20	0.5747	0.6439	-2.34	18964	Deceleration	-38	53
2026-03-13	0.5747	0.6435	-5.11	149267	Deceleration	-38	39
2026-03-06	0.6292	0.643	4.13	112640	Deceleration	6	18
2026-02-27	0.6738	0.6406	5.64	68880	Deceleration	35	24
2026-02-20	0.6936	0.6359	11.56	69548	Upward Expansion	45	32
2026-02-13	0.7085	0.6306	17.22	71823	Upward Expansion	61	49
2026-02-06	0.7283	0.6224	22.21	178676	Upward Expansion	65	61
2026-01-30	0.758	0.6136	29.99	119910	Upward Expansion	72	69
2026-01-23	0.758	0.6038	32.18	98155	Upward Expansion	79	71
2026-01-16	0.763	0.5939	33.01	147030	Upward Expansion	89	75
2026-01-09	0.7333	0.5837	30.42	74374	Upward Expansion	85	93
2026-01-02	0.6788	0.5743	23.80	95761	Upward Expansion	66	88
2025-12-26	0.7085	0.5655	31.10	44143	Upward Expansion	87	95
2025-12-19	0.7283	0.5558	35.42	74557	Upward Expansion	94	92
2025-12-12	0.6689	0.5454	28.57	93335	Deceleration	88	69
2025-12-05	0.6045	0.538	16.77	19816	Deceleration	48	50
2025-11-28	0.6045	0.5327	16.64	20374	Upward Expansion	59	58
2025-11-21	0.6045	0.5269	19.37	115163	Upward Expansion	62	61
2025-11-14	0.6045	0.5194	17.94	42869	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-11-07	0.6045	0.511	18.57	31432	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-10-31	0.6045	0.5026	18.67	22646	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-10-24	0.6045	0.4939	19.84	11	Upward Expansion	69	85
2025-10-17	0.6045	0.4857	23.90	45454	Upward Expansion	69	77
2025-10-10	0.6045	0.4776	23.40	10131	Upward Expansion	73	82
2025-10-03	0.6045	0.4696	22.98	226137	Upward Expansion	78	85
2025-09-26	0.6025	0.4626	25.70	167597	Upward Expansion	82	78
2025-09-19	0.6025	0.4564	27.12	135109	Upward Expansion	87	73
2025-09-12	0.563	0.4503	18.30	13646	Upward Expansion	69	78
2025-09-05	0.563	0.4454	19.39	5447	Upward Expansion	70	84
2025-08-29	0.563	0.4405	19.75	23248	Upward Expansion	72	88
2025-08-22	0.563	0.4356	18.63	45458	Upward Expansion	75	90
2025-08-15	0.558	0.4307	20.50	155056	Upward Expansion	79	91
2025-08-08	0.558	0.4257	21.78	114401	Upward Expansion	86	91
2025-08-01	0.5333	0.4208	17.39	31672	Upward Expansion	83	84
2025-07-25	0.5333	0.4168	17.25	138569	Upward Expansion	86	73
2025-07-18	0.4642	0.4127	3.94	41268	Upward Expansion	62	51
2025-07-11	0.4642	0.4111	4.70	160	Upward Expansion	63	62
2025-07-04	0.4642	0.4096	6.35	68144	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-06-27	0.4607	0.408	6.12	262242	Upward Expansion	66	56
2025-06-20	0.4558	0.4065	5.70	17726	Rotation Up	68	44
2025-06-13	0.4509	0.4054	4.08	57189	Rotation Up	42	31
2025-06-06	0.4166	0.4044	-3.37	131744	Rotation Up	18	25
2025-05-30	0.4166	0.404	-2.39	331570	Rotation Up	20	39
2025-05-23	0.4166	0.4053	-1.42	226550	Rotation Up	22	36
2025-05-16	0.446	0.4066	6.37	57622	Rotation Up	32	40
2025-05-09	0.446	0.407	8.58	19699	Downward Expansion	22	28
2025-05-02	0.4313	0.4073	5.04	140968	Downward Expansion	-12	12
2025-04-25	0.3774	0.4081	-5.77	46524	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2025-04-18	0.3529	0.4107	-10.44	0	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2025-04-11	0.3529	0.4145	-7.11	6779	Downward Expansion	-65	72
2025-04-04	0.3431	0.4187	-10.45	27031	Downward Expansion	-75	79
2025-03-28	0.3578	0.4234	-12.90	9321	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2025-03-21	0.3627	0.4248	-11.39	9268	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2025-03-14	0.3627	0.4261	-11.03	64738	Balance	-69	52
2025-03-07	0.397	0.4267	-2.95	138619	Balance	-51	24
2025-02-28	0.4166	0.4261	0.69	5340	Balance	-29	13
2025-02-21	0.4166	0.4251	2.86	12437	Balance	-31	13
2025-02-14	0.4166	0.4244	2.46	10481	Balance	-33	14
2025-02-07	0.4166	0.4234	3.29	81	Balance	-9	8
2025-01-31	0.4166	0.4222	4.05	21484	Deceleration	-11	10
2025-01-24	0.4166	0.4208	6.64	244205	Deceleration	-23	16
2025-01-17	0.4068	0.4184	4.77	7365	Deceleration	-30	21
2025-01-10	0.4117	0.4163	9.92	0	Deceleration	-19	17
2025-01-03	0.4117	0.4141	11.01	3314	Deceleration	-20	17
2024-12-27	0.4117	0.4115	12.82	14509	Deceleration	-2	16
2024-12-20	0.4166	0.4083	15.98	15369	Deceleration	3	17
2024-12-13	0.4166	0.4049	13.89	492	Deceleration	2	14
2024-12-06	0.4166	0.4015	14.62	34	Deceleration	4	18
2024-11-29	0.4166	0.3986	15.80	1159994	Deceleration	5	18
2024-11-22	0.4215	0.3961	18.37	1943	Deceleration	14	18
2024-11-15	0.4215	0.3945	22.52	26196	Deceleration	28	20
2024-11-08	0.4058	0.3929	19.14	35026	Deceleration	26	20
2024-11-01	0.4558	0.3892	33.56	12635	Deceleration	45	41
2024-10-25	0.4558	0.3835	34.19	24292	Deceleration	48	45
2024-10-18	0.4558	0.3779	34.19	0	Upward Expansion	59	52
2024-10-11	0.4558	0.3722	37.78	190	Upward Expansion	62	58
2024-10-04	0.4558	0.3665	39.32	3723	Upward Expansion	66	73
2024-09-27	0.4542	0.3609	40.13	28332	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-09-20	0.4688	0.3553	48.40	9739	Upward Expansion	75	89
2024-09-13	0.4786	0.3492	53.15	15009	Upward Expansion	88	93
2024-09-06	0.4835	0.3428	59.11	211954	Upward Expansion	92	73
2024-08-30	0.4005	0.3362	30.98	30014	Upward Expansion	69	55
2024-08-23	0.4005	0.3322	33.30	42136	Upward Expansion	73	57
2024-08-16	0.3809	0.3274	28.55	34616	Upward Expansion	63	61
2024-08-09	0.3809	0.3235	32.18	2522	Upward Expansion	65	82
2024-08-02	0.3858	0.3193	35.33	50755	Upward Expansion	67	86
2024-07-26	0.3956	0.315	38.56	78211	Upward Expansion	80	89
2024-07-19	0.3858	0.3102	39.06	5340	Upward Expansion	78	84
2024-07-12	0.3809	0.3058	37.40	21335	Upward Expansion	76	71
2024-07-05	0.3761	0.3015	38.11	33457	Upward Expansion	76	63
2024-06-28	0.3442	0.2972	28.45	37	Upward Expansion	60	43
2024-06-21	0.3442	0.2943	28.51	46	Deceleration	61	40
2024-06-14	0.3442	0.2899	31.16	1005	Deceleration	52	31
2024-06-07	0.3345	0.2854	27.22	50655	Deceleration	42	23
2024-05-31	0.3151	0.2807	20.49	17709	Deceleration	37	22
2024-05-24	0.3151	0.2768	20.80	213	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-05-17	0.3151	0.273	20.22	27925	Upward Expansion	60	51
2024-05-10	0.3297	0.2688	26.52	16444	Upward Expansion	64	80
2024-05-03	0.3394	0.2642	34.91	78874	Upward Expansion	64	82
2024-04-26	0.3733	0.2594	51.24	130858	Upward Expansion	86	91
2024-04-19	0.3733	0.2534	57.91	157449	Upward Expansion	88	79
2024-04-12	0.2958	0.2473	25.32	70	Upward Expansion	60	41
2024-04-05	0.2861	0.2439	23.50	26	Upward Expansion	52	37
2024-03-29	0.2861	0.2407	23.76	8	Upward Expansion	54	39
2024-03-22	0.2861	0.2376	24.96	2717	Upward Expansion	56	41
2024-03-15	0.2861	0.2345	29.04	2829	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-03-08	0.2861	0.2314	30.99	2758	Upward Expansion	61	53
2024-03-01	0.2861	0.2282	31.58	146	Upward Expansion	62	59
2024-02-23	0.2861	0.2251	32.22	80	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-02-16	0.2861	0.222	33.21	116945	Upward Expansion	66	54
2024-02-09	0.2861	0.2189	36.81	1479	Upward Expansion	70	49
2024-02-02	0.2812	0.2156	34.91	306652	Upward Expansion	71	48
2024-01-26	0.257	0.2127	23.98	85051	Upward Expansion	59	42
2024-01-19	0.2618	0.2107	30.16	14910	Upward Expansion	65	47
2024-01-12	0.257	0.2085	26.26	66919	Upward Expansion	65	48
2024-01-05	0.257	0.2064	26.33	60977	Upward Expansion	67	52
2023-12-29	0.2521	0.2043	24.32	5014	Upward Expansion	66	67
2023-12-22	0.2521	0.2024	25.80	4649	Upward Expansion	70	79
2023-12-15	0.2521	0.2005	28.69	83676	Upward Expansion	74	81
2023-12-08	0.2473	0.1986	27.47	68269	Upward Expansion	77	79
2023-12-01	0.257	0.1969	33.84	78188	Upward Expansion	88	78
2023-11-24	0.2133	0.195	12.65	175063	Balance	62	52
2023-11-17	0.2085	0.1946	10.27	31020	Balance	33	33
2023-11-10	0.1939	0.1943	4.91	1144	Balance	7	10
2023-11-03	0.1988	0.1943	6.90	13226	Balance	12	13
2023-10-27	0.1988	0.1942	8.99	8497	Balance	-6	5
2023-10-20	0.1891	0.194	2.04	40190	Balance	-41	15

Price vs TrendBelow-9.6%

Trend directionFalling-16.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-5.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-15.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-26.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.3%

Price momentumNegative-17.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ±100

-1.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

51 /100

-0.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SKL Directional State ↗ SKL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance13

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion6

Deceleration53

Rotation Down70

Downward Expansion84

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 49%Deceleration 16%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 21%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-10-09	Established	-18.7%
Rotation Down	2026-03-27	2026-04-17	New	-9.0%
Deceleration	2026-02-27	2026-03-20	New	-14.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-02-20	Developing	-4.8%
Deceleration	2025-12-05	2025-12-12	New	+10.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-27	2025-11-28	Established	+31.2%
Rotation Up	2025-05-16	2025-06-20	Developing	+2.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-05-09	Developing	+23.0%
Balance	2025-02-07	2025-03-14	Developing	-12.9%
Deceleration	2024-10-25	2025-01-31	Established	-8.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-06-28	2024-10-18	Established	+32.4%
Deceleration	2024-05-31	2024-06-21	New	+9.2%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-01	2024-05-24	Established	+22.6%
Balance	2023-06-09	2023-11-24	Established	+9.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing47

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution25

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: -26.25
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -17.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -16.6%
Technology regime cohort: 29th percentile31 in cohort

Test SKL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.67×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SKL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 0.4211falling

Slow Activity GBP 0.4429falling

Trend Reference GBP 0.4591-9.6% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 0.4396-5.6% close margin

Structural low GBP 0.3964shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.9%

Annualized volatility +23.7%

From structural high -47.6%

From structural low +4.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	8	-2.5%-13.6% to +26.4%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-1.9%	+87.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	2	+6.9%-11.8% to +25.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+4.5%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	+66.1%+66.1% to +66.1%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+59.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+58.5%+58.5% to +58.5%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+43.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SKL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map