Weekly structural research ยท JKT ยท Basic Materials

BLES Stage Analysis

Superior Prima Sukses Tbk.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close IDR 187.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^JKSE
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 44โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 33/100directional strength
Maturity 77/100lifecycle context
Confidence 90/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -0.7%IDR 188.25 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 115 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25187.00162.2433.9349505900Upward Expansion4433
2026-09-18195.00161.0736.4861410500Upward Expansion5145
2026-09-11212.00159.5447.4089396900Upward Expansion7464
2026-09-04191.00157.5132.3554919800Upward Expansion6665
2026-08-28206.00156.1446.4642699700Upward Expansion6889
2026-08-21214.00154.3153.478197800Upward Expansion8093
2026-08-14206.00152.7752.268750900Upward Expansion8093
2026-08-07218.00151.3762.7731474600Rotation Up9397
2026-07-31200.00149.6755.3115164300Rotation Up6377
2026-07-24165.00148.4430.155056200Downward Expansion2525
2026-07-17150.00148.2419.121818400Downward Expansion-2112
2026-07-10141.00148.6116.72225800Downward Expansion-3920
2026-07-03139.00149.3115.82134700Downward Expansion-5433
2026-06-26141.00150.0116.85440900Downward Expansion-5446
2026-06-19145.00150.5714.59540800Downward Expansion-5758
2026-06-12131.25151.046.42513800Downward Expansion-6663
2026-06-05133.23151.9015.59585600Balance-5239
2026-05-29132.24152.764.563956600Balance-5130
2026-05-22146.06153.8214.385162000Rotation Up-87
2026-05-15152.97154.389.501849700Rotation Up1725
2026-05-08156.91154.518.026038600Rotation Up2132
2026-05-01160.86154.8810.5926040900Rotation Up2133
2026-04-24164.81155.2210.2718029100Downward Expansion1730
2026-04-17160.86155.200.2013671100Downward Expansion-1017
2026-04-10156.00155.23-1.169472600Downward Expansion-3224
2026-04-03154.00155.232.9932197700Downward Expansion-5456
2026-03-27123.00155.37-18.993204800Downward Expansion-7485
2026-03-20120.00156.67-22.012345200Downward Expansion-8586
2026-03-13124.00158.07-20.928377200Downward Expansion-8781
2026-03-06141.00159.13-16.589468100Downward Expansion-7265
2026-02-27152.00159.77-18.358051600Downward Expansion-5560
2026-02-20149.00160.27-21.453312100Downward Expansion-6060
2026-02-13151.00161.10-21.0718375600Balance-5449
2026-02-06150.00162.00-20.0418597400Balance-5538
2026-01-30151.00163.00-24.4226689300Balance-4416
2026-01-23168.00163.87-22.9442473000Balance1925
2026-01-16164.00โ€”โ€”16455900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-09167.00โ€”โ€”22186700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-02163.00โ€”โ€”8671900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-26159.00โ€”โ€”13796100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-19161.00โ€”โ€”23812100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-12162.00โ€”โ€”53082500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-05160.00โ€”โ€”16419900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-28158.00โ€”โ€”22246600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-21159.00โ€”โ€”21287200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-14157.00โ€”โ€”22986300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-07159.00โ€”โ€”21308100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-31164.00โ€”โ€”31214700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-24163.00โ€”โ€”30272100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-17157.00โ€”โ€”34157400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-10168.00โ€”โ€”30435400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-03171.00โ€”โ€”193896200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-26164.00โ€”โ€”23700900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-19162.00โ€”โ€”35164400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-12156.00โ€”โ€”14896800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-05158.00โ€”โ€”21742200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-29162.00โ€”โ€”46745200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-22162.00โ€”โ€”32865500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-15156.00โ€”โ€”34740400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-08160.00โ€”โ€”23414400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-01167.00โ€”โ€”23827300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-25174.00โ€”โ€”20750800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-18178.00โ€”โ€”8982300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-11180.00โ€”โ€”7550100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-04177.00โ€”โ€”16844600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-27172.00โ€”โ€”12881700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-20178.00โ€”โ€”15961400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-13183.00โ€”โ€”9592700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-06184.00โ€”โ€”8189100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-30186.00โ€”โ€”7811600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-23191.00โ€”โ€”16080000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-16186.00โ€”โ€”12913600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-09177.52โ€”โ€”24192400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-02176.53โ€”โ€”34502800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-25177.52โ€”โ€”11364500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-18179.48โ€”โ€”8826500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-11169.67โ€”โ€”13847100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-28181.44โ€”โ€”15711900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-21192.23โ€”โ€”20296500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-14217.73โ€”โ€”13156100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-07223.61โ€”โ€”12403500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-28221.65โ€”โ€”20566600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-21241.26โ€”โ€”18916500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-14245.19โ€”โ€”38057600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-07245.19โ€”โ€”28708900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-31260.88โ€”โ€”9671500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-24268.73โ€”โ€”36478100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-17264.80โ€”โ€”75929800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-10245.19โ€”โ€”28558200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-03253.03โ€”โ€”9820500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-27243.23โ€”โ€”11952700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-20243.23โ€”โ€”42396300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-13256.96โ€”โ€”84529200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-06239.30โ€”โ€”225599700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-29227.53โ€”โ€”78705100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-22243.23โ€”โ€”45447000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-15241.26โ€”โ€”31442900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-08243.23โ€”โ€”50448200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-01251.07โ€”โ€”110855400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-25233.42โ€”โ€”68061400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-18235.38โ€”โ€”98676900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-11223.61โ€”โ€”67098000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-04227.53โ€”โ€”14410900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-27235.38โ€”โ€”31041200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-20231.46โ€”โ€”25833500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-13235.38โ€”โ€”58127900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-06229.50โ€”โ€”27306300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-30231.46โ€”โ€”35675100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-23237.34โ€”โ€”94148900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-16209.88โ€”โ€”33272800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-09211.84โ€”โ€”54635100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-02207.92โ€”โ€”58430800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-26249.11โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-19249.11โ€”โ€”156651300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-12253.03โ€”โ€”986850900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+15.3%
Trend directionRising+9.4%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-0.7%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+24.5%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+33.9%
Relative strength directionImproving+17.1%
Price momentumPositive+52.0%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.70ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

44 / ยฑ100

-24.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

33 /100

-55.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance28
Rotation Up34
Upward Expansion65
Deceleration88
Rotation Down27
Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-07-12 to 2026-09-25 ยท 36 classified observations out of 115 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 17%Upward Expansion 19%Downward Expansion 47%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-08-142026-09-25Developing-9.2%
Rotation Up2026-07-312026-08-07New+9.0%
Downward Expansion2026-06-122026-07-24Developing+25.7%
Balance2026-05-292026-06-05New+0.7%
Rotation Up2026-05-012026-05-22New-9.2%
Downward Expansion2026-02-202026-04-24Developing+10.6%
Balance2026-01-232026-02-13New-10.1%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing42
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution28
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2A ยท Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^JKSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
78/100
Current Relative Strength
33.93
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+52.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+64.1%
Basic Materials regime cohort
15th percentile20 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume2.59ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.70ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity IDR 195.93falling
Slow Activity IDR 174.58rising
Trend Reference IDR 162.24+15.3% close margin
Current Fair Value IDR 188.25-0.7% close margin
Structural low IDR 123.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.5%
Annualized volatility +56.5%
From structural high -18.7%
From structural low +62.6%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^JKSE Regime survived Read
Near term1+2.9%+2.9% to +2.9%+100.0%+100.0%+0.7%+100.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context