Weekly structural research · NYSE · Industrials

CODI Stage Analysis

Compass Diversified Holdings

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 10.93Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 28−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 16/100directional strength

Maturity 26/100lifecycle context

Confidence 94/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -25.5%USD 14.67 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	10.93	10.43	17.05	3441036	Balance	28	16
2026-09-25	11.25	10.28	20.99	2079047	Upward Expansion	34	17
2026-09-18	11.03	10.16	20.97	3471797	Upward Expansion	38	21
2026-09-11	11.01	10.04	21.33	1976797	Upward Expansion	53	34
2026-09-04	11.67	9.89	28.38	2792924	Upward Expansion	58	60
2026-08-28	11.45	9.73	26.88	2089837	Upward Expansion	57	60
2026-08-21	11.68	9.56	30.72	4307790	Upward Expansion	60	58
2026-08-14	12.71	9.38	41.07	6173340	Deceleration	68	53
2026-08-07	11.00	9.14	23.27	3197514	Deceleration	40	23
2026-07-31	10.08	8.96	17.60	2200207	Deceleration	17	12
2026-07-24	10.03	8.78	18.92	2342328	Deceleration	20	13
2026-07-17	10.33	8.60	22.32	4276752	Deceleration	22	15
2026-07-10	10.06	8.42	18.09	3445107	Deceleration	32	20
2026-07-03	10.61	8.26	26.88	3668671	Deceleration	34	23
2026-06-26	10.41	8.09	27.96	4888045	Deceleration	35	27
2026-06-19	10.11	7.99	22.20	3659268	Deceleration	40	27
2026-06-12	10.28	7.86	25.99	7440604	Upward Expansion	46	39
2026-06-05	10.64	7.70	32.00	3577912	Upward Expansion	52	53
2026-05-29	11.35	7.55	37.84	3820505	Upward Expansion	65	65
2026-05-22	11.46	7.38	42.07	3339594	Upward Expansion	68	73
2026-05-15	11.97	7.27	50.36	5470440	Upward Expansion	71	88
2026-05-08	12.48	7.11	57.87	5185021	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-05-01	11.80	6.97	54.02	4088614	Upward Expansion	85	94
2026-04-24	11.49	6.80	47.35	6329437	Upward Expansion	88	95
2026-04-17	10.51	6.65	31.97	4950170	Upward Expansion	85	90
2026-04-10	9.79	6.54	24.84	7012803	Balance	82	75
2026-04-03	8.59	6.44	10.44	7751573	Balance	44	24
2026-03-27	6.68	6.40	-14.00	5935501	Balance	-5	12
2026-03-20	5.58	6.43	-32.23	5514293	Balance	-22	14
2026-03-13	6.05	6.50	-30.51	4057075	Rotation Up	10	17
2026-03-06	6.33	6.54	-30.94	6640270	Rotation Up	20	35
2026-02-27	7.49	6.55	-22.63	10534344	Rotation Up	31	49
2026-02-20	7.57	6.52	-24.83	5872817	Downward Expansion	33	37
2026-02-13	6.39	6.49	-37.77	5030521	Downward Expansion	-6	20
2026-02-06	6.85	6.48	-36.17	5614305	Downward Expansion	-7	20
2026-01-30	6.57	6.47	-40.67	6885347	Downward Expansion	-19	20
2026-01-23	6.10	6.47	-46.35	7003300	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2026-01-16	5.58	6.47	-52.53	7625274	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2026-01-09	5.50	6.50	-54.80	6122312	Downward Expansion	-61	63
2026-01-02	4.65	6.52	-62.31	5834829	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2025-12-26	4.89	6.60	-62.04	5445836	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2025-12-19	4.79	6.66	-63.46	9127683	Downward Expansion	-70	49
2025-12-12	5.14	6.75	-61.96	11916615	Downward Expansion	-67	38
2025-12-05	5.73	6.84	-59.06	9516693	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2025-11-28	7.36	6.88	-48.66	6794645	Downward Expansion	-13	32
2025-11-21	6.04	7.22	-57.40	7847994	Downward Expansion	-59	57
2025-11-14	5.75	7.59	-61.25	7328267	Balance	-65	52
2025-11-07	5.95	7.95	-60.87	6108110	Balance	-63	34
2025-10-31	6.38	8.29	-59.70	6398569	Balance	-33	16
2025-10-24	8.00	8.64	-50.22	7436158	Balance	-2	10
2025-10-17	7.30	8.99	-54.55	19982033	Balance	-19	13
2025-10-10	8.35	9.38	-48.17	18545538	Downward Expansion	-2	12
2025-10-03	6.73	9.74	-59.93	3807764	Downward Expansion	-52	46
2025-09-26	6.72	10.16	-60.36	4880258	Downward Expansion	-51	47
2025-09-19	7.20	10.66	-58.51	5336442	Downward Expansion	-33	41
2025-09-12	7.01	11.10	-59.88	2754776	Downward Expansion	-33	41
2025-09-05	7.28	11.56	-58.45	2243598	Downward Expansion	-34	38
2025-08-29	7.50	11.99	-57.82	3472120	Downward Expansion	-46	55
2025-08-22	7.65	12.43	-57.78	3279284	Downward Expansion	-51	68
2025-08-15	7.34	12.88	-60.10	4643539	Downward Expansion	-53	76
2025-08-08	6.78	13.34	-63.42	5917433	Downward Expansion	-54	80
2025-08-01	6.38	13.79	-65.33	4650171	Downward Expansion	-54	56
2025-07-25	6.83	14.32	-64.45	5214151	Downward Expansion	-54	58
2025-07-18	6.13	14.84	-68.26	5077646	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2025-07-11	6.43	15.40	-67.14	6076147	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2025-07-04	6.62	15.95	-66.85	4106162	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2025-06-27	6.14	16.48	-69.23	6467385	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-06-20	6.38	17.05	-67.47	8429128	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2025-06-13	6.00	17.59	-69.94	10906974	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2025-06-06	7.18	18.14	-64.75	8004018	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2025-05-30	6.72	18.64	-66.99	7961064	Downward Expansion	-80	93
2025-05-23	7.37	19.09	-63.76	5391296	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2025-05-16	7.90	19.52	-62.70	11425051	Downward Expansion	-93	92
2025-05-09	6.96	19.96	-65.91	20016593	Downward Expansion	-95	80
2025-05-02	17.65	20.40	-15.19	1194630	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2025-04-25	17.03	20.51	-16.20	1505218	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2025-04-18	16.55	20.65	-15.34	1193923	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2025-04-11	16.33	20.79	-18.18	3196944	Downward Expansion	-86	93
2025-04-04	16.68	20.92	-12.31	2382801	Downward Expansion	-87	89
2025-03-28	18.53	21.02	-11.89	1575568	Downward Expansion	-75	80
2025-03-21	18.88	21.12	-12.00	1398618	Downward Expansion	-75	68
2025-03-14	19.15	21.20	-10.76	1439112	Downward Expansion	-74	52
2025-03-07	19.56	21.24	-11.35	1836512	Deceleration	-44	30
2025-02-28	21.56	21.24	-5.85	1491395	Rotation Down	-14	18
2025-02-21	20.49	21.21	-11.69	722767	Rotation Down	-27	44
2025-02-14	20.66	21.30	-12.76	790845	Rotation Down	-25	46
2025-02-07	20.19	21.35	-13.88	825529	Deceleration	-35	51
2025-01-31	20.93	21.40	-11.29	960289	Deceleration	-21	30
2025-01-24	20.92	21.39	-12.57	972595	Deceleration	-20	26
2025-01-17	21.17	21.38	-10.46	971845	Deceleration	15	20
2025-01-10	20.38	21.37	-11.57	787089	Deceleration	9	12
2025-01-03	22.30	21.39	-5.48	495269	Upward Expansion	43	30
2024-12-27	22.49	21.35	-5.46	515374	Upward Expansion	56	39
2024-12-20	22.74	21.32	-4.12	1686272	Upward Expansion	60	58
2024-12-13	23.00	21.27	-5.07	1143588	Upward Expansion	67	72
2024-12-06	22.57	21.21	-7.61	930867	Upward Expansion	60	71
2024-11-29	23.08	21.15	-4.96	838882	Upward Expansion	69	72
2024-11-22	22.83	21.07	-5.08	856812	Balance	69	64
2024-11-15	22.35	21.03	-5.69	1209829	Balance	24	32
2024-11-08	22.10	21.01	-8.84	1100116	Balance	2	5
2024-11-01	20.47	21.01	-11.69	853970	Balance	-44	27
2024-10-25	20.01	21.07	-15.05	755088	Balance	-50	23
2024-10-18	21.21	21.16	-11.03	995923	Balance	-23	11
2024-10-11	20.15	21.20	-14.88	746117	Balance	-41	17
2024-10-04	20.95	21.27	-10.68	837374	Balance	-30	12
2024-09-27	21.27	21.34	-9.23	1276454	Balance	-28	17
2024-09-20	20.79	21.36	-10.93	1591882	Balance	-45	25
2024-09-13	20.23	21.38	-12.25	932415	Balance	-51	28
2024-09-06	19.71	21.42	-11.30	591974	Balance	-61	41
2024-08-30	21.33	21.47	-8.23	679998	Balance	-43	29
2024-08-23	21.30	21.46	-8.34	764429	Balance	-46	33
2024-08-16	20.38	21.47	-11.29	903361	Balance	-50	40
2024-08-09	19.56	21.47	-11.82	1329708	Balance	-61	24
2024-08-02	20.72	21.49	-6.96	1509464	Balance	4	15
2024-07-26	23.06	21.49	1.01	1206037	Balance	39	35
2024-07-19	22.24	21.41	-3.51	1326494	Balance	15	10
2024-07-12	21.66	21.36	-8.09	1080643	Deceleration	-15	12
2024-07-05	20.59	21.31	-12.08	623633	Deceleration	-31	35
2024-06-28	20.85	21.27	-9.57	1899198	Deceleration	-26	26
2024-06-21	20.65	21.21	-10.76	1098745	Deceleration	-21	15
2024-06-14	21.06	21.16	-8.65	675761	Deceleration	14	10
2024-06-07	21.11	21.08	-7.19	678861	Deceleration	5	7
2024-05-31	21.68	20.96	-3.70	835413	Deceleration	11	11
2024-05-24	21.04	20.82	-7.02	738494	Deceleration	4	17
2024-05-17	21.24	20.65	-6.35	723483	Deceleration	6	18
2024-05-10	20.92	20.49	-6.37	783614	Deceleration	3	16
2024-05-03	20.65	20.36	-6.05	1388179	Deceleration	13	16
2024-04-26	21.55	20.23	-1.48	888619	Deceleration	37	21
2024-04-19	21.73	20.09	1.98	905354	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-04-12	22.11	19.93	0.65	1156308	Upward Expansion	57	44
2024-04-05	22.32	19.80	0.14	842372	Upward Expansion	61	50
2024-03-29	22.67	19.67	0.91	696471	Upward Expansion	67	59
2024-03-22	22.50	19.56	0.52	866591	Upward Expansion	67	59
2024-03-15	22.19	19.45	1.40	1192622	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-03-08	23.14	19.35	5.71	1363278	Upward Expansion	85	73
2024-03-01	21.75	19.26	-0.75	1034987	Upward Expansion	70	58
2024-02-23	21.32	19.21	-1.96	611279	Upward Expansion	63	58
2024-02-16	21.69	19.18	1.05	1087910	Upward Expansion	74	72
2024-02-09	21.20	19.14	-1.81	1140444	Upward Expansion	67	55
2024-02-02	20.96	19.10	-1.84	752776	Upward Expansion	65	54
2024-01-26	21.52	19.05	1.87	1546844	Upward Expansion	79	59
2024-01-19	20.32	18.99	-2.97	892716	Rotation Up	63	54
2024-01-12	20.27	18.94	-2.28	893243	Rotation Up	39	64
2024-01-05	20.58	18.91	0.83	675532	Rotation Up	42	72
2023-12-29	20.90	18.86	0.80	713504	Rotation Up	45	74
2023-12-22	20.76	18.78	0.53	938820	Rotation Up	49	73
2023-12-15	20.01	18.69	-2.16	1154747	Rotation Up	41	60
2023-12-08	19.34	18.63	-3.05	594901	Rotation Up	32	42
2023-12-01	19.26	18.60	-3.17	663774	Downward Expansion	19	32
2023-11-24	18.98	18.53	-3.80	405258	Downward Expansion	-7	23
2023-11-17	18.85	18.47	-3.55	931664	Downward Expansion	-25	18
2023-11-10	17.27	18.42	-9.67	651199	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2023-11-03	17.45	18.42	-7.72	866088	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2023-10-27	15.95	18.39	-10.97	892031	Rotation Down	-83	88
2023-10-20	16.68	18.43	-9.63	879049	Rotation Down	-46	75
2023-10-13	16.78	18.43	-11.46	876544	Rotation Down	-49	77

Price vs TrendAbove+4.8%

Trend directionRising+18.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-25.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+5.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+17.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-9.8%

Price momentumPositive+27.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.37×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

28 / ±100

-29.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

16 /100

-44.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CODI Directional State ↗ CODI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance59

Rotation Up21

Upward Expansion51

Deceleration93

Rotation Down31

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 32%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-02	2026-10-02	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	-3.7%
Deceleration	2026-06-19	2026-08-14	Developing	+25.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-06-12	Developing	-2.2%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-04-10	New	+75.4%
Rotation Up	2026-02-27	2026-03-13	New	-19.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-02-20	Established	+25.3%
Balance	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	-21.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-10-10	Extended	-56.4%
Deceleration	2025-03-07	2025-03-07	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2025-02-14	2025-02-28	New	+4.4%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-02-07	Developing	-0.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-01-03	Developing	-3.4%
Balance	2024-07-19	2024-11-22	Established	+2.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing40

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution38

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 90/100
Current Relative Strength: 17.05
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +27.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +9.6%
Industrials regime cohort: 94th percentile47 in cohort

Test CODI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.95×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.37×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CODI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 11.10falling

Slow Activity USD 10.94rising

Trend Reference USD 10.43+4.8% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 14.67-25.5% close margin

Structural low USD 8.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.7%

Annualized volatility +41.9%

From structural high -17.5%

From structural low +138.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	-0.4%-21.2% to +88.4%	+46.2%	+46.2%	-2.1%	+53.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-4.6%-23.6% to +81.2%	+28.6%	+28.6%	-6.3%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+0.6%-8.7% to +44.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-7.7%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-37.8%-72.4% to -3.2%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-52.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CODI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map