Weekly structural research ยท ASX ยท Market

MQEG Stage Analysis

Macquarie Core Global Equity Active ETF

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close AUD 14.29Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 76โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 54/100directional strength
Maturity 45/100lifecycle context
Confidence 62/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +17.5%AUD 12.16 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 121 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-0214.2913.528.18638332Deceleration7654
2026-09-2514.1813.477.80232063Deceleration5839
2026-09-1813.9913.435.77318756Deceleration4130
2026-09-1113.8613.404.86495477Upward Expansion4435
2026-09-0413.9713.362.78335836Upward Expansion6360
2026-08-2813.9813.332.0352059Upward Expansion6566
2026-08-2114.0013.302.7439119Upward Expansion6571
2026-08-1414.3713.274.9768247Upward Expansion9090
2026-08-0714.2513.242.6367162Upward Expansion9174
2026-07-3113.9213.223.6468480Upward Expansion7371
2026-07-2413.8013.205.3126379Upward Expansion6682
2026-07-1713.8213.195.38114560Upward Expansion6886
2026-07-1013.9213.176.2847615Upward Expansion8293
2026-07-0313.9213.166.0768969Upward Expansion8794
2026-06-2613.6813.145.4518146Rotation Up7288
2026-06-1913.7213.135.2264527Rotation Up5380
2026-06-1213.5713.114.6476821Rotation Up4572
2026-06-0513.6013.107.318522Rotation Up4268
2026-05-2913.5413.095.83209107Rotation Up4363
2026-05-2213.3913.085.74309112Rotation Up3849
2026-05-1513.2613.085.28380305Balance3133
2026-05-0813.1413.073.19266914Balance-421
2026-05-0112.9613.072.16579204Downward Expansion-2024
2026-04-2413.0313.072.23296022Downward Expansion-2422
2026-04-1712.9713.070.13262595Downward Expansion-4025
2026-04-1012.8113.07-1.13414099Downward Expansion-6148
2026-04-0312.5513.061.25186958Downward Expansion-6473
2026-03-2712.4613.071.32416742Downward Expansion-6980
2026-03-2012.3113.081.22847214Rotation Down-8585
2026-03-1312.4913.090.51272184Rotation Down-5869
2026-03-0612.8013.100.32150443Rotation Down-4360
2026-02-2712.9313.08-2.45207316Rotation Down-2557
2026-02-2013.0013.06-0.67161981Rotation Down-2347
2026-02-1312.8113.04-0.28167647Deceleration-3642
2026-02-0612.8713.022.67114761Deceleration-1222
2026-01-3013.0512.992.37145290Upward Expansion2014
2026-01-2313.2412.954.08116285Upward Expansion5840
2026-01-1613.5612.916.2148050Upward Expansion7357
2026-01-0913.5012.848.18100445Upward Expansion7053
2026-01-0213.4212.787.6548936Upward Expansion6554
2025-12-2613.4212.727.4945530Upward Expansion6657
2025-12-1913.3812.669.11123684Upward Expansion6659
2025-12-1213.41โ€”โ€”199486Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-0513.40โ€”โ€”114561Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2813.39โ€”โ€”116136Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2113.09โ€”โ€”226391Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1413.28โ€”โ€”148161Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0713.29โ€”โ€”227500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3113.39โ€”โ€”310416Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2413.19โ€”โ€”102127Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1713.08โ€”โ€”241490Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1013.09โ€”โ€”157041Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0313.06โ€”โ€”105016Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2612.92โ€”โ€”121728Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1912.86โ€”โ€”165356Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1212.67โ€”โ€”121669Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0512.73โ€”โ€”105951Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2912.67โ€”โ€”155437Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2212.71โ€”โ€”188883Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1512.72โ€”โ€”129841Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0812.36โ€”โ€”133744Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0112.36โ€”โ€”208413Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2512.25โ€”โ€”161607Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1812.18โ€”โ€”133933Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1111.98โ€”โ€”134448Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0412.01โ€”โ€”105969Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2711.82โ€”โ€”44301Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2011.57โ€”โ€”130613Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1311.58โ€”โ€”79747Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0611.59โ€”โ€”136796Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3011.61โ€”โ€”47475Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2311.49โ€”โ€”142075Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1611.58โ€”โ€”25231Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0911.16โ€”โ€”139380Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0211.09โ€”โ€”28093Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2510.67โ€”โ€”100089Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1810.57โ€”โ€”30257Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1110.46โ€”โ€”299221Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0410.72โ€”โ€”56794Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2811.26โ€”โ€”386545Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2111.24โ€”โ€”77364Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1411.02โ€”โ€”496588Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0711.30โ€”โ€”80160Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2811.53โ€”โ€”103212Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2111.60โ€”โ€”84669Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1411.77โ€”โ€”56564Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0711.72โ€”โ€”110618Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3111.84โ€”โ€”67333Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2411.71โ€”โ€”190357Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1711.61โ€”โ€”182662Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1011.50โ€”โ€”109968Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0311.39โ€”โ€”77719Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2711.62โ€”โ€”33852Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2011.30โ€”โ€”64662Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1311.47โ€”โ€”421876Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0611.41โ€”โ€”235320Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2911.09โ€”โ€”133416Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2210.98โ€”โ€”95034Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1511.04โ€”โ€”139514Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0810.84โ€”โ€”111462Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0110.54โ€”โ€”45407Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-2510.61โ€”โ€”198007Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1810.59โ€”โ€”85538Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1110.45โ€”โ€”48075Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-0410.15โ€”โ€”97100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2710.27โ€”โ€”50922Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2010.26โ€”โ€”44094Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1310.20โ€”โ€”43703Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-0610.06โ€”โ€”19147Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3010.17โ€”โ€”70344Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2310.21โ€”โ€”67233Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1610.25โ€”โ€”20037Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-099.85โ€”โ€”123011Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0210.17โ€”โ€”52488Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2610.15โ€”โ€”64613Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1910.15โ€”โ€”76146Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1210.05โ€”โ€”46409Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0510.08โ€”โ€”73230Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2810.11โ€”โ€”116427Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2110.01โ€”โ€”108756Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-1410.02โ€”โ€”129869Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+5.7%
Trend directionRising+2.4%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+17.5%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+0.9%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+8.2%
Relative strength directionImproving+2.1%
Price momentumPositive+13.9%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.31ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

76 / ยฑ100

+13.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

54 /100

-5.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance32
Rotation Up48
Upward Expansion77
Deceleration74
Rotation Down27
Downward Expansion8

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-06-14 to 2026-10-02 ยท 42 classified observations out of 121 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 14%Upward Expansion 43%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 14%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-09-182026-10-02New+2.2%
Upward Expansion2026-07-032026-09-11Developing-0.4%
Rotation Up2026-05-222026-06-26Developing+2.2%
Balance2026-05-082026-05-15New+0.9%
Downward Expansion2026-03-272026-05-01Developing+4.1%
Rotation Down2026-02-202026-03-20Developing-5.3%
Deceleration2026-02-062026-02-13New-0.5%
Upward Expansion2025-12-192026-01-30Developing-2.5%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing24
Stage 2 ยท Advancing98
Stage 3 ยท Distribution69
Stage 4 ยท Declining2

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2B ยท Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
83/100
Current Relative Strength
8.18
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+13.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+12.7%
Sector regime cohort
72th percentile99 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume3.92ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.31ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity AUD 14.12rising
Slow Activity AUD 13.83rising
Trend Reference AUD 13.52+5.7% close margin
Current Fair Value AUD 12.16+17.5% close margin
Structural low AUD 12.50shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +1.4%
Annualized volatility +7.4%
From structural high -1.0%
From structural low +17.5%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^AXJO Regime survived Read
Near term1-0.5%-0.5% to -0.5%+0.0%+0.0%-2.2%+0.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate1+2.1%+2.1% to +2.1%+100.0%+100.0%+1.7%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+10.8%+10.8% to +10.8%+100.0%+100.0%+4.4%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context