Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

AVIR Stage Analysis

Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 5.15Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 4−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 7/100directional strength

Maturity 19/100lifecycle context

Confidence 56/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +36.5%USD 3.77 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	5.15	5.09	-0.41	1296625	Balance	4	7
2026-10-02	5.13	5.12	-0.15	1494928	Balance	8	7
2026-09-25	5.17	5.14	1.89	1419459	Rotation Up	24	20
2026-09-18	5.33	5.13	9.13	1651135	Rotation Up	29	33
2026-09-11	5.31	5.10	10.53	1388115	Rotation Up	23	45
2026-09-04	5.83	5.07	21.38	1144290	Rotation Up	38	57
2026-08-28	5.36	5.01	12.72	759872	Rotation Up	23	43
2026-08-21	5.43	4.98	15.19	1130576	Balance	26	33
2026-08-14	5.12	4.93	6.26	1513765	Balance	14	14
2026-08-07	5.25	4.88	10.46	1405688	Balance	27	16
2026-07-31	4.70	4.82	4.34	3484603	Balance	-1	7
2026-07-24	4.73	4.78	5.75	1138793	Balance	2	13
2026-07-17	4.87	4.74	7.15	1164991	Deceleration	1	11
2026-07-10	4.99	4.68	5.53	1835389	Deceleration	10	11
2026-07-03	4.98	4.62	7.30	1732559	Deceleration	2	10
2026-06-26	4.49	4.56	-2.36	2403717	Rotation Down	-20	34
2026-06-19	4.36	4.51	-9.44	1358296	Rotation Down	-24	43
2026-06-12	4.49	4.47	-4.33	1089272	Deceleration	-21	43
2026-06-05	4.25	4.42	-7.30	1416833	Deceleration	-12	33
2026-05-29	4.67	4.38	-2.72	1246575	Deceleration	4	23
2026-05-22	4.42	4.34	-5.10	1607700	Deceleration	-3	18
2026-05-15	4.10	4.30	-10.79	2785576	Upward Expansion	9	15
2026-05-08	5.43	4.26	17.95	1279947	Upward Expansion	48	39
2026-05-01	5.58	4.18	28.65	1314790	Upward Expansion	59	48
2026-04-24	5.47	4.10	28.90	1140283	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-04-17	5.74	4.01	39.12	1372366	Upward Expansion	67	55
2026-04-10	5.67	3.92	46.87	1733412	Upward Expansion	67	58
2026-04-03	5.76	3.83	57.43	1697885	Upward Expansion	72	67
2026-03-27	5.12	3.75	46.96	2162700	Upward Expansion	68	76
2026-03-20	5.66	3.69	58.61	3131577	Upward Expansion	71	87
2026-03-13	6.10	3.63	69.17	3946876	Upward Expansion	93	96
2026-03-06	5.89	3.54	63.68	4460835	Upward Expansion	97	97
2026-02-27	4.68	3.46	29.99	1827438	Upward Expansion	80	89
2026-02-20	4.65	3.42	29.55	2076518	Upward Expansion	84	91
2026-02-13	4.31	3.39	22.15	2153251	Upward Expansion	77	87
2026-02-06	4.15	3.36	16.61	3142818	Upward Expansion	74	81
2026-01-30	4.24	3.34	17.21	3337680	Rotation Up	85	81
2026-01-23	4.12	3.33	14.09	2776851	Rotation Up	58	65
2026-01-16	3.40	3.30	-5.43	1550787	Rotation Up	21	46
2026-01-09	3.45	3.30	-5.19	2013160	Rotation Up	22	46
2026-01-02	3.48	3.29	-2.57	1310089	Rotation Up	25	41
2025-12-26	3.65	3.28	0.05	1566897	Balance	34	28
2025-12-19	3.14	3.26	-13.02	2444877	Balance	-32	15
2025-12-12	3.15	3.25	-12.57	1542442	Balance	-43	22
2025-12-05	3.17	3.23	-13.80	1731988	Balance	-45	29
2025-11-28	3.10	3.22	-15.01	1002400	Balance	-46	31
2025-11-21	2.97	3.22	-15.03	2543510	Balance	-27	18
2025-11-14	2.96	3.21	-18.37	2895128	Balance	-15	12
2025-11-07	3.27	3.21	-10.43	1708467	Balance	2	10
2025-10-31	3.25	3.19	-14.12	2402596	Rotation Down	-6	10
2025-10-24	3.21	3.18	-13.98	1652939	Rotation Down	-6	12
2025-10-17	3.06	3.17	-16.63	1729790	Rotation Down	-20	32
2025-10-10	3.14	3.18	-13.10	3409892	Rotation Down	-22	47
2025-10-03	2.90	3.17	-22.00	2249706	Rotation Down	-29	53
2025-09-26	2.93	3.18	-20.81	1146037	Deceleration	-26	40
2025-09-19	2.88	3.18	-23.04	1637537	Deceleration	-29	28
2025-09-12	3.14	3.19	-15.02	910082	Deceleration	16	12
2025-09-05	3.37	3.19	-7.91	606090	Deceleration	35	19
2025-08-29	3.36	3.17	-7.89	1222481	Deceleration	38	21
2025-08-22	3.66	3.16	-0.61	2272078	Deceleration	49	29
2025-08-15	3.50	3.15	-6.34	1735369	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-08-08	3.38	3.14	-9.57	1545414	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-08-01	3.47	3.14	-4.16	1561074	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-07-25	3.90	3.14	4.88	2377847	Upward Expansion	82	81
2025-07-18	3.36	3.12	-9.25	2114198	Upward Expansion	64	73
2025-07-11	3.67	3.12	-0.07	1788663	Rotation Up	76	81
2025-07-04	3.74	3.09	1.36	1813522	Rotation Up	56	69
2025-06-27	3.45	3.06	-5.07	2129736	Rotation Up	35	50
2025-06-20	3.25	3.06	-7.04	1666135	Balance	22	27
2025-06-13	3.16	3.07	-9.91	1831792	Balance	-4	13
2025-06-06	3.18	3.07	-10.25	2236577	Balance	-15	10
2025-05-30	2.97	3.08	-14.93	1668136	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2025-05-23	2.90	3.09	-15.92	1687147	Downward Expansion	-48	28
2025-05-16	2.74	3.11	-22.94	2727715	Downward Expansion	-57	33
2025-05-09	2.72	3.14	-18.91	2187206	Downward Expansion	-61	33
2025-05-02	2.98	3.17	-12.12	2489155	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2025-04-25	2.89	3.18	-12.58	2141491	Downward Expansion	-53	49
2025-04-18	2.97	3.20	-5.06	2822624	Downward Expansion	-54	52
2025-04-11	2.71	3.23	-15.87	1511300	Downward Expansion	-68	54
2025-04-04	2.79	3.26	-7.56	1509253	Downward Expansion	-66	37
2025-03-28	2.93	3.29	-12.99	1234885	Downward Expansion	-57	30
2025-03-21	3.22	3.32	-7.33	1271440	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-03-14	3.08	3.34	-11.71	1335709	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2025-03-07	2.99	3.36	-17.04	1647157	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2025-02-28	3.03	3.38	-19.29	1646476	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2025-02-21	3.09	3.39	-21.33	988310	Downward Expansion	-52	47
2025-02-14	3.15	3.42	-22.36	1491481	Downward Expansion	-52	47
2025-02-07	2.98	3.43	-25.13	1898329	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2025-01-31	3.06	3.45	-23.82	1856961	Downward Expansion	-56	29
2025-01-24	3.16	3.45	-23.15	1667766	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2025-01-17	3.37	3.46	-17.45	2615319	Downward Expansion	-27	18
2025-01-10	3.27	3.46	-18.02	1919454	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2025-01-03	3.52	3.47	-14.17	1384864	Downward Expansion	-28	17
2024-12-27	3.33	3.48	-19.63	1552120	Downward Expansion	-54	50
2024-12-20	3.19	3.49	-22.51	5203274	Downward Expansion	-57	54
2024-12-13	2.93	3.51	-30.69	2028564	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2024-12-06	2.94	3.53	-30.22	1750056	Downward Expansion	-72	58
2024-11-29	3.42	3.56	-16.59	698539	Downward Expansion	-50	33
2024-11-22	3.37	3.58	-17.44	692662	Downward Expansion	-51	47
2024-11-15	3.22	3.59	-19.78	1239736	Balance	-63	54
2024-11-08	3.50	3.61	-16.07	1063860	Balance	-47	29
2024-11-01	3.29	3.62	-16.96	631770	Balance	-61	40
2024-10-25	3.35	3.63	-17.23	573900	Balance	-56	32
2024-10-18	3.82	3.66	-5.94	874453	Balance	-19	14
2024-10-11	3.48	3.66	-14.25	562730	Balance	-40	26
2024-10-04	3.46	3.68	-13.94	780223	Balance	-38	20
2024-09-27	3.44	3.70	-14.56	843040	Balance	-37	17
2024-09-20	3.67	3.73	-8.19	2146674	Balance	10	14
2024-09-13	3.87	3.75	-2.06	1318182	Balance	18	22
2024-09-06	3.60	3.76	-3.59	543598	Balance	-12	15
2024-08-30	3.85	3.78	-3.07	1052397	Balance	-2	10
2024-08-23	3.90	3.79	-2.77	1196058	Balance	-1	4
2024-08-16	3.68	3.79	-7.51	1032556	Downward Expansion	-27	16
2024-08-09	3.37	3.78	-11.01	1023768	Downward Expansion	-42	21
2024-08-02	3.45	3.79	-8.95	1030103	Downward Expansion	-38	20
2024-07-26	3.92	3.78	-0.12	990021	Downward Expansion	-21	13
2024-07-19	3.57	3.75	-11.47	1071470	Downward Expansion	-57	47
2024-07-12	3.43	3.74	-18.74	1299204	Rotation Down	-61	68
2024-07-05	3.25	3.72	-23.68	817974	Rotation Down	-48	65
2024-06-28	3.31	3.71	-20.12	1534970	Rotation Down	-48	57
2024-06-21	3.44	3.71	-17.64	1487277	Deceleration	-42	45
2024-06-14	3.61	3.69	-14.11	1758849	Deceleration	-21	29
2024-06-07	3.70	3.67	-9.63	1081863	Deceleration	4	21
2024-05-31	3.67	3.64	-8.66	888788	Deceleration	2	14
2024-05-24	3.66	3.63	-11.23	1292730	Deceleration	2	6
2024-05-17	3.65	3.61	-11.31	2033349	Deceleration	1	6
2024-05-10	3.89	3.58	-4.01	923204	Deceleration	15	11
2024-05-03	3.96	3.56	-1.07	1138911	Deceleration	16	15
2024-04-26	3.71	3.52	-6.61	1039936	Deceleration	8	16
2024-04-19	3.72	3.50	-2.99	1085737	Deceleration	25	19
2024-04-12	3.76	3.48	-7.51	930031	Deceleration	32	20
2024-04-05	3.81	3.46	-7.10	1106272	Deceleration	37	21
2024-03-29	4.04	3.45	-2.70	1576635	Upward Expansion	42	28
2024-03-22	4.06	3.42	-3.02	3138936	Upward Expansion	48	38
2024-03-15	4.01	3.40	-1.46	1475928	Upward Expansion	61	48
2024-03-08	4.00	3.38	-3.48	1670923	Upward Expansion	64	55
2024-03-01	4.45	3.36	5.24	2624779	Upward Expansion	79	85
2024-02-23	4.20	3.32	0.96	1241776	Upward Expansion	71	85
2024-02-16	4.12	3.30	-0.15	2408589	Upward Expansion	71	85
2024-02-09	4.26	3.28	0.77	2717033	Rotation Up	84	90
2024-02-02	4.12	3.26	-1.57	3601039	Rotation Up	57	75
2024-01-26	3.84	3.24	-8.09	2635072	Rotation Up	51	65
2024-01-19	3.57	3.24	-15.10	1719783	Balance	29	41
2024-01-12	3.56	3.25	-14.42	3799382	Balance	10	16
2024-01-05	3.09	3.27	-24.60	1216939	Balance	-30	14
2023-12-29	3.05	3.31	-29.19	1081056	Balance	-34	17
2023-12-22	3.15	3.35	-28.04	2128898	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2023-12-15	2.95	3.41	-33.12	3289946	Downward Expansion	-55	33
2023-12-08	3.01	3.43	-30.65	1437737	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2023-12-01	3.12	3.44	-28.69	2227232	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2023-11-24	2.85	3.45	-35.73	1014287	Downward Expansion	-67	42
2023-11-17	3.03	3.46	-32.10	2068728	Downward Expansion	-47	31
2023-11-10	2.90	3.47	-34.64	2037550	Downward Expansion	-70	44
2023-11-03	3.27	3.48	-25.44	2520466	Downward Expansion	-48	36
2023-10-27	3.08	3.49	-26.88	2557192	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2023-10-20	2.94	3.50	-33.31	1642973	Downward Expansion	-72	75

Price vs TrendAbove+1.3%

Trend directionRising+5.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+36.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-0.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.9%

Price momentumNegative-9.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.54×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

4 / ±100

-18.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

7 /100

-37.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AVIR Directional State ↗ AVIR Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance67

Rotation Up21

Upward Expansion25

Deceleration68

Rotation Down34

Downward Expansion23

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 16%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+0.4%
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-3.5%
Balance	2026-07-24	2026-08-21	Developing	+14.8%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-07-17	New	-2.2%
Rotation Down	2026-06-19	2026-06-26	New	+3.0%
Deceleration	2026-05-22	2026-06-12	New	+1.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-05-15	Established	-1.2%
Rotation Up	2026-01-02	2026-01-30	Developing	+21.8%
Balance	2025-11-07	2025-12-26	Developing	+11.6%
Rotation Down	2025-10-03	2025-10-31	Developing	+12.1%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-09-26	Developing	-19.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-08-15	Developing	+4.2%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-07-11	New	+6.4%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-06-20	New	+2.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing31

Stage 2 · Advancing63

Stage 3 · Distribution61

Stage 4 · Declining37

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 75/100
Current Relative Strength: -0.41
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -9.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -32.1%
Healthcare regime cohort: 12th percentile116 in cohort

Test AVIR trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.86×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.54×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AVIR Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 5.18falling

Slow Activity USD 5.07rising

Trend Reference USD 5.09+1.3% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 3.77+36.5% close margin

Structural low USD 3.82shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.6%

Annualized volatility +54.8%

From structural high -20.2%

From structural low +79.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	-3.1%-21.8% to +25.9%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-5.0%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+6.0%-31.3% to +32.5%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-2.9%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-7.7%-37.7% to +34.1%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-22.1%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-10.7%-50.6% to -6.2%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-47.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AVIR Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map