Weekly structural research · ASX · Technology

VGL Stage Analysis

Vista Group International Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close AUD 2.22Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 59−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 48/100directional strength

Maturity 81/100lifecycle context

Confidence 63/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -1.9%AUD 2.26 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	2.22	1.88	13.57	141865	Upward Expansion	59	48
2026-09-18	2.33	1.86	17.88	71937	Upward Expansion	77	64
2026-09-11	2.16	1.83	8.56	101786	Upward Expansion	65	78
2026-09-04	2.23	1.81	8.47	22106	Upward Expansion	68	87
2026-08-28	2.33	1.79	11.59	57584	Upward Expansion	82	92
2026-08-21	2.26	1.76	8.29	4557	Upward Expansion	77	87
2026-08-14	2.23	1.75	5.62	61830	Upward Expansion	77	77
2026-08-07	2.21	1.74	2.24	49696	Upward Expansion	77	71
2026-07-31	2.05	1.74	-3.13	53318	Upward Expansion	63	59
2026-07-24	2.00	1.74	-4.62	12623	Upward Expansion	58	55
2026-07-17	2.07	1.75	-2.41	18146	Rotation Up	67	63
2026-07-10	2.05	1.76	-4.47	853	Rotation Up	40	41
2026-07-03	1.90	1.77	-12.82	9510	Rotation Up	27	28
2026-06-26	2.00	1.78	-8.50	1147	Rotation Up	38	32
2026-06-19	1.90	1.79	-14.88	21453	Rotation Up	23	41
2026-06-12	1.84	1.80	-17.92	13639	Rotation Up	25	50
2026-06-05	1.82	1.82	-18.63	31157	Rotation Up	24	48
2026-05-29	2.17	1.83	-5.23	197149	Balance	49	50
2026-05-22	1.87	1.84	-18.60	543667	Balance	11	23
2026-05-15	1.72	1.86	-25.63	94729	Downward Expansion	-9	15
2026-05-08	1.77	1.89	-25.77	182784	Downward Expansion	-24	17
2026-05-01	1.46	1.92	-39.50	486523	Downward Expansion	-49	38
2026-04-24	1.52	1.96	-38.62	84117	Downward Expansion	-48	41
2026-04-17	1.50	2.00	-41.07	2151655	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2026-04-10	1.50	2.03	-42.25	1334492	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2026-04-03	1.42	2.08	-43.96	26761	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2026-03-27	1.36	2.12	-46.79	30604	Downward Expansion	-75	66
2026-03-20	1.40	2.17	-45.74	64307	Downward Expansion	-76	64
2026-03-13	1.60	2.21	-40.19	418319	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2026-03-06	1.56	2.26	-44.16	61470	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2026-02-27	1.59	2.31	-46.03	233523	Downward Expansion	-67	75
2026-02-20	1.46	2.37	-50.53	393693	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2026-02-13	1.53	2.42	-47.80	154774	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2026-02-06	1.54	2.48	-46.70	131562	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2026-01-30	1.61	2.54	-45.80	102669	Downward Expansion	-89	93
2026-01-23	1.82	2.59	-39.40	34795	Downward Expansion	-84	84
2026-01-16	1.94	2.63	-36.21	56472	Downward Expansion	-79	68
2026-01-09	2.10	2.68	-29.78	181621	Downward Expansion	-69	48
2026-01-02	2.26	2.72	-25.01	94576	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2025-12-26	2.27	2.75	-25.33	31943	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2025-12-19	2.20	2.79	-26.80	655638	Downward Expansion	-68	45
2025-12-12	2.41	2.83	-20.90	292078	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-12-05	2.40	2.86	-20.92	206793	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2025-11-28	2.24	2.89	-26.19	903551	Downward Expansion	-69	76
2025-11-21	2.21	2.93	-25.69	1370856	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2025-11-14	2.29	2.96	-25.17	174298	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2025-11-07	2.33	2.99	-25.25	104808	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2025-10-31	2.30	3.03	-27.32	83843	Downward Expansion	-81	61
2025-10-24	2.50	3.05	-22.43	95922	Downward Expansion	-72	54
2025-10-17	2.58	3.08	-19.92	116932	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2025-10-10	2.70	3.11	-16.10	46987	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2025-10-03	2.66	3.14	-17.73	75436	Downward Expansion	-68	75
2025-09-26	2.61	3.16	-17.46	40206	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2025-09-19	2.67	3.19	-15.48	127599	Downward Expansion	-73	82
2025-09-12	2.73	3.20	-14.45	147836	Downward Expansion	-70	81
2025-09-05	2.82	3.20	-11.82	49587	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2025-08-29	2.65	3.21	-18.25	38333	Downward Expansion	-83	80
2025-08-22	2.82	3.22	-13.16	627782	Balance	-75	65
2025-08-15	2.98	3.22	-8.02	81518	Balance	-36	34
2025-08-08	3.20	3.21	0.15	185699	Balance	-18	11
2025-08-01	3.19	3.20	1.69	8417	Balance	-20	12
2025-07-25	3.18	3.19	1.84	9640	Deceleration	6	10
2025-07-18	3.23	3.18	2.86	17727	Deceleration	9	10
2025-07-11	3.21	3.17	4.85	98576	Deceleration	10	12
2025-07-04	3.19	3.15	4.59	31037	Deceleration	11	11
2025-06-27	3.17	3.14	5.66	250774	Deceleration	12	8
2025-06-20	3.21	3.12	7.77	64727	Deceleration	31	16
2025-06-13	3.26	3.10	9.63	823607	Deceleration	46	24
2025-06-06	3.40	3.08	15.34	162087	Deceleration	50	29
2025-05-30	3.47	3.05	19.71	573152	Deceleration	55	30
2025-05-23	3.27	3.02	14.73	40415	Deceleration	43	23
2025-05-16	3.38	3.00	20.02	68645	Deceleration	43	23
2025-05-09	3.28	2.98	19.35	51953	Deceleration	34	17
2025-05-02	3.28	2.96	20.54	121436	Deceleration	36	21
2025-04-25	3.25	2.94	24.78	35282	Deceleration	37	20
2025-04-18	3.13	2.91	23.80	36112	Upward Expansion	41	24
2025-04-11	3.45	2.89	41.07	85528	Upward Expansion	64	43
2025-04-04	3.17	2.87	30.95	107250	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-03-28	3.32	2.86	33.23	66664	Upward Expansion	65	74
2025-03-21	3.55	2.84	45.04	154863	Upward Expansion	76	84
2025-03-14	3.53	2.81	48.80	91299	Upward Expansion	81	82
2025-03-07	3.34	2.78	39.92	145504	Upward Expansion	76	71
2025-02-28	3.40	2.76	40.44	120473	Upward Expansion	82	56
2025-02-21	2.92	2.71	20.58	27921	Upward Expansion	54	30
2025-02-14	2.85	2.69	15.30	35723	Upward Expansion	52	30
2025-02-07	2.91	2.67	19.40	53796	Upward Expansion	56	34
2025-01-31	2.93	2.64	21.12	63306	Upward Expansion	61	40
2025-01-24	2.88	2.61	22.04	92393	Upward Expansion	59	40
2025-01-17	2.83	2.58	22.62	129893	Upward Expansion	59	50
2025-01-10	2.96	2.55	29.84	145647	Upward Expansion	73	65
2025-01-03	2.84	2.53	26.65	15349	Upward Expansion	63	58
2024-12-27	2.85	2.51	28.18	123273	Upward Expansion	66	58
2024-12-20	2.78	2.48	29.33	70935	Upward Expansion	60	45
2024-12-13	2.80	2.44	28.05	125904	Deceleration	62	40
2024-12-06	2.70	2.41	23.11	41575	Deceleration	53	31
2024-11-29	2.67	2.37	22.77	28332	Deceleration	50	27
2024-11-22	2.66	2.34	24.26	50664	Deceleration	40	21
2024-11-15	2.63	2.31	25.69	17120	Deceleration	39	20
2024-11-08	2.58	2.27	24.40	12201	Deceleration	48	30
2024-11-01	2.55	2.25	27.03	78393	Deceleration	50	33
2024-10-25	2.62	2.22	30.48	108361	Deceleration	52	34
2024-10-18	2.84	2.20	41.82	144667	Deceleration	60	38
2024-10-11	2.69	2.16	37.24	144812	Deceleration	46	26
2024-10-04	2.45	2.13	27.38	98889	Upward Expansion	41	27
2024-09-27	2.53	2.11	31.71	65646	Upward Expansion	50	43
2024-09-20	2.47	2.07	29.89	71736	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-09-13	2.71	2.04	45.71	85865	Upward Expansion	68	81
2024-09-06	2.87	2.00	57.79	232434	Upward Expansion	80	92
2024-08-30	2.75	1.95	51.87	146111	Upward Expansion	77	91
2024-08-23	2.66	1.91	49.96	54632	Upward Expansion	76	88
2024-08-16	2.80	1.87	60.43	228546	Upward Expansion	91	93
2024-08-09	2.57	1.82	52.15	273999	Upward Expansion	87	82
2024-08-02	2.14	1.79	25.13	51277	Upward Expansion	60	52
2024-07-26	2.21	1.77	30.00	32727	Upward Expansion	70	55
2024-07-19	2.21	1.75	29.69	76616	Upward Expansion	75	53
2024-07-12	2.03	1.72	19.77	78016	Upward Expansion	56	43
2024-07-05	2.02	1.70	21.51	130749	Upward Expansion	62	55
2024-06-28	2.01	1.67	22.35	14251	Upward Expansion	64	81
2024-06-21	2.02	1.65	22.93	64187	Upward Expansion	65	86
2024-06-14	2.25	1.62	38.63	91971	Upward Expansion	89	95
2024-06-07	2.11	1.59	28.71	107469	Upward Expansion	84	81
2024-05-31	2.06	1.56	29.22	408049	Deceleration	79	48
2024-05-24	1.68	1.53	5.59	85550	Deceleration	31	18
2024-05-17	1.68	1.52	5.08	90004	Deceleration	34	21
2024-05-10	1.64	1.50	4.12	78122	Deceleration	36	26
2024-05-03	1.68	1.49	8.15	471744	Upward Expansion	44	30
2024-04-26	1.70	1.48	11.05	17069	Upward Expansion	50	41
2024-04-19	1.66	1.47	8.93	123069	Upward Expansion	65	56
2024-04-12	1.84	1.46	17.98	260622	Upward Expansion	73	88
2024-04-05	1.80	1.45	16.65	730546	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-03-29	1.81	1.43	16.19	507863	Upward Expansion	75	89
2024-03-22	1.84	1.42	20.61	2252460	Upward Expansion	86	89
2024-03-15	1.79	1.42	19.56	100839	Upward Expansion	85	78
2024-03-08	1.63	1.41	6.96	23793	Upward Expansion	74	60
2024-03-01	1.48	1.42	-1.68	26874	Upward Expansion	26	29
2024-02-23	1.50	1.42	1.45	15431	Rotation Up	28	33
2024-02-16	1.53	1.43	3.52	25730	Rotation Up	35	27
2024-02-09	1.50	1.44	1.53	11389	Rotation Up	20	16
2024-02-02	1.49	1.44	0.62	158840	Rotation Up	21	18
2024-01-26	1.44	1.44	-0.75	13960	Rotation Up	18	24
2024-01-19	1.42	1.45	-0.23	37382	Rotation Up	22	46
2024-01-12	1.48	1.45	3.03	18099	Rotation Up	24	44
2024-01-05	1.54	1.46	7.48	3995	Balance	33	47
2023-12-29	1.56	1.45	8.03	60011	Balance	18	29
2023-12-22	1.46	1.44	2.48	57746	Downward Expansion	-12	14
2023-12-15	1.30	1.43	-8.31	17914	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2023-12-08	1.31	1.43	-4.57	9741	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2023-12-01	1.22	1.43	-9.35	49266	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2023-11-24	1.32	1.43	-2.13	44094	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2023-11-17	1.31	1.42	-3.02	244659	Rotation Down	-64	65
2023-11-10	1.17	1.42	-12.56	17943	Rotation Down	-48	73
2023-11-03	1.20	1.42	-10.23	15480	Rotation Down	-46	70
2023-10-27	1.20	1.42	-9.35	17949	Rotation Down	-50	63
2023-10-20	1.24	1.43	-7.52	61470	Rotation Down	-40	57
2023-10-13	1.35	1.43	-1.34	12011	Rotation Down	-27	51
2023-10-06	1.34	1.42	-1.30	37359	Rotation Down	-29	47

Price vs TrendAbove+18.0%

Trend directionRising+7.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-1.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+7.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+13.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+22.1%

Price momentumPositive+63.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.10×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

59 / ±100

-22.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

48 /100

-43.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

VGL Directional State ↗ VGL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance15

Rotation Up45

Upward Expansion75

Deceleration71

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion13

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 36%Deceleration 18%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 28%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-09-25	Developing	+11.3%
Rotation Up	2026-06-05	2026-07-17	Developing	+14.0%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-05-29	New	+16.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-29	2026-05-15	Extended	-34.9%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-08-22	New	-11.6%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-07-25	Established	-2.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-04-18	Established	+12.6%
Deceleration	2024-10-11	2024-12-13	Developing	+4.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-06-07	2024-10-04	Established	+16.1%
Deceleration	2024-05-10	2024-05-31	New	+25.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-01	2024-05-03	Developing	+13.6%
Rotation Up	2024-01-12	2024-02-23	Developing	+1.4%
Balance	2023-12-29	2024-01-05	New	-1.6%
Downward Expansion	2023-11-24	2023-12-22	Developing	+11.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing41

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution31

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: 13.57
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +63.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +61.5%
Technology regime cohort: 20th percentile15 in cohort

Test VGL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.88×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.10×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore VGL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 2.24falling

Slow Activity AUD 2.04rising

Trend Reference AUD 1.88+18.0% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 2.26-1.9% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.26shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.9%

Annualized volatility +50.6%

From structural high -19.0%

From structural low +76.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	24	+1.3%-15.2% to +28.5%	+54.2%	+54.2%	-0.9%	+79.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+5.6%-13.8% to +39.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+4.8%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+6.2%-22.1% to +86.4%	+80.0%	+80.0%	-0.1%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+39.3%-26.0% to +57.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+28.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

VGL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map