Weekly structural research · NYSE · Technology

TWLO Stage Analysis

Twilio Inc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 294.58Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 82−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 73/100directional strength

Maturity 44/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +163.0%USD 112.01 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	294.58	196.91	65.30	15587217	Upward Expansion	82	73
2026-09-25	275.80	191.36	57.40	19293167	Upward Expansion	78	56
2026-09-18	243.84	186.20	43.37	11500881	Upward Expansion	66	47
2026-09-11	227.35	181.84	35.40	5915869	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-09-04	232.98	178.03	39.40	8018321	Upward Expansion	59	55
2026-08-28	237.78	174.10	44.13	8316205	Upward Expansion	64	62
2026-08-21	225.30	170.19	39.01	10993507	Upward Expansion	59	54
2026-08-14	238.20	166.95	46.66	14358433	Upward Expansion	72	50
2026-08-07	241.28	162.98	50.74	20005493	Upward Expansion	78	48
2026-07-31	197.35	159.32	29.49	6896792	Upward Expansion	45	33
2026-07-24	191.46	157.35	27.81	8143606	Upward Expansion	56	40
2026-07-17	206.78	155.65	37.90	9545076	Upward Expansion	59	45
2026-07-10	214.56	153.49	41.79	8732844	Deceleration	68	47
2026-07-03	209.31	150.76	41.57	6823124	Deceleration	65	46
2026-06-26	191.57	148.03	33.50	10891095	Upward Expansion	58	49
2026-06-19	186.17	145.97	27.41	10820925	Upward Expansion	61	55
2026-06-12	204.08	143.78	41.68	10770349	Upward Expansion	64	63
2026-06-05	225.99	141.16	59.09	20836691	Upward Expansion	88	88
2026-05-29	190.64	137.88	32.18	10137582	Upward Expansion	67	87
2026-05-22	187.88	136.02	32.83	12786299	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-05-15	198.29	133.51	42.19	14195870	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-05-08	201.70	130.46	45.99	17106046	Upward Expansion	93	96
2026-05-01	183.34	127.30	37.00	18860872	Upward Expansion	87	81
2026-04-24	143.79	124.62	9.32	11699775	Balance	55	48
2026-04-17	140.11	123.24	7.39	10667951	Balance	50	26
2026-04-10	117.65	122.12	-5.42	15246696	Balance	9	5
2026-04-03	130.95	121.61	9.17	5938812	Balance	41	21
2026-03-27	119.99	120.87	3.81	8381339	Balance	24	15
2026-03-20	124.11	120.39	5.08	8516624	Balance	27	18
2026-03-13	124.50	119.80	3.58	7368524	Balance	22	11
2026-03-06	128.03	119.17	5.03	9977828	Rotation Down	13	13
2026-02-27	120.96	118.19	-2.70	13380761	Rotation Down	-18	29
2026-02-20	113.14	118.20	-9.71	9986128	Deceleration	-26	36
2026-02-13	113.00	118.80	-9.08	21780977	Deceleration	-26	28
2026-02-06	115.02	119.40	-9.05	17204810	Deceleration	-5	20
2026-01-30	120.46	119.33	-5.71	13478227	Deceleration	19	21
2026-01-23	128.30	119.33	0.07	8829654	Deceleration	35	20
2026-01-16	119.07	119.14	-7.84	10823241	Upward Expansion	35	24
2026-01-09	131.39	119.06	1.16	11932039	Upward Expansion	62	58
2026-01-02	138.36	118.46	8.24	6986282	Upward Expansion	66	72
2025-12-26	140.46	117.90	8.85	5027069	Upward Expansion	72	72
2025-12-19	141.74	117.14	11.61	15127544	Upward Expansion	80	69
2025-12-12	132.92	116.20	5.05	10050577	Upward Expansion	70	47
2025-12-05	127.32	115.65	0.10	11235299	Upward Expansion	62	43
2025-11-28	129.69	114.93	2.28	7497198	Upward Expansion	69	65
2025-11-21	120.57	113.94	-1.26	10072351	Upward Expansion	53	66
2025-11-14	125.36	113.09	0.75	7236003	Upward Expansion	54	68
2025-11-07	127.68	111.75	2.98	11794961	Balance	59	64
2025-10-31	134.88	110.39	7.39	20827689	Balance	63	40
2025-10-24	112.56	108.68	-9.29	6862109	Balance	1	5
2025-10-17	106.65	108.22	-11.99	8495110	Balance	-12	13
2025-10-10	107.12	108.12	-9.71	15055192	Balance	-23	17
2025-10-03	102.94	107.84	-14.96	17645937	Balance	-28	23
2025-09-26	102.34	107.95	-14.19	11084092	Balance	-21	20
2025-09-19	106.50	108.54	-10.57	17010673	Balance	-16	18
2025-09-12	102.33	108.80	-12.57	13055077	Balance	-25	35
2025-09-05	108.67	109.56	-5.19	7801008	Balance	-17	29
2025-08-29	105.61	110.79	-6.95	12669920	Balance	-19	30
2025-08-22	106.38	112.16	-5.79	40853188	Balance	-25	29
2025-08-15	105.67	113.15	-5.57	34300807	Balance	-16	16
2025-08-08	98.67	113.36	-10.44	31900469	Rotation Up	-13	13
2025-08-01	121.16	113.67	13.21	9951974	Rotation Up	60	52
2025-07-25	131.06	113.40	20.53	11786951	Rotation Up	48	56
2025-07-18	131.00	112.68	23.64	19358611	Rotation Up	50	45
2025-07-11	113.16	111.91	8.73	10280362	Rotation Up	19	23
2025-07-04	120.27	111.90	16.27	8711640	Rotation Up	25	29
2025-06-27	122.74	111.68	21.91	9028329	Rotation Up	32	45
2025-06-20	116.50	111.07	21.06	7571202	Rotation Up	22	42
2025-06-13	113.39	110.66	18.98	9232531	Rotation Up	23	45
2025-06-06	121.73	110.10	28.65	11560279	Rotation Up	34	50
2025-05-30	117.70	109.12	27.92	9102603	Balance	26	34
2025-05-23	113.49	108.03	26.94	11972900	Balance	7	24
2025-05-16	116.34	106.59	28.15	15140849	Deceleration	15	22
2025-05-09	105.69	105.08	23.78	15384587	Deceleration	-15	15
2025-05-02	100.11	103.90	17.79	22158219	Rotation Down	-32	32
2025-04-25	95.07	102.81	15.94	10475842	Rotation Down	-37	55
2025-04-18	84.97	101.79	9.12	6739952	Rotation Down	-35	57
2025-04-11	86.86	101.07	10.60	13896221	Rotation Down	-35	56
2025-04-04	83.58	100.16	13.08	13643268	Deceleration	-43	48
2025-03-28	98.98	99.31	22.55	7047596	Deceleration	-9	29
2025-03-21	103.45	98.10	27.20	8892351	Deceleration	-1	23
2025-03-14	98.97	96.68	23.36	16231705	Deceleration	3	22
2025-03-07	106.08	95.42	30.23	15743498	Deceleration	27	26
2025-02-28	119.93	93.90	43.91	14139841	Upward Expansion	48	40
2025-02-21	114.31	91.99	37.41	19417014	Upward Expansion	64	60
2025-02-14	125.17	90.14	49.61	28107654	Upward Expansion	66	76
2025-02-07	145.65	87.93	78.84	12442801	Upward Expansion	86	89
2025-01-31	146.58	85.00	82.20	26741732	Upward Expansion	92	76
2025-01-24	136.23	82.03	70.03	25544537	Upward Expansion	89	72
2025-01-17	111.94	79.38	43.71	11533276	Upward Expansion	67	62
2025-01-10	108.08	77.47	43.54	8733086	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-01-03	113.09	75.68	47.96	5929374	Upward Expansion	73	69
2024-12-27	109.29	73.81	43.14	4825395	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-12-20	107.93	72.08	42.75	22115904	Upward Expansion	69	69
2024-12-13	112.98	70.45	47.12	12054175	Upward Expansion	83	92
2024-12-06	113.42	68.75	47.34	10725217	Upward Expansion	93	98
2024-11-29	104.54	66.98	37.64	10032787	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-11-22	104.35	65.55	39.57	14899881	Upward Expansion	96	99
2024-11-15	96.59	64.11	32.05	18905485	Upward Expansion	97	99
2024-11-08	92.29	62.80	23.99	18913450	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-11-01	84.84	61.76	19.75	22022630	Upward Expansion	98	98
2024-10-25	70.47	60.93	-1.57	7968930	Upward Expansion	73	86
2024-10-18	70.85	60.62	-2.01	6727048	Upward Expansion	79	86
2024-10-11	70.28	60.31	-2.07	8977004	Upward Expansion	81	81
2024-10-04	67.48	59.96	-5.02	10748722	Upward Expansion	75	68
2024-09-27	64.66	59.77	-8.98	6917483	Balance	64	34
2024-09-20	63.22	59.63	-10.86	10946576	Balance	33	19
2024-09-13	59.46	59.45	-15.34	8335306	Balance	7	6
2024-09-06	58.10	59.42	-14.45	7476233	Balance	4	8
2024-08-30	62.76	59.87	-11.97	9524455	Balance	26	34
2024-08-23	60.76	60.14	-15.00	10013519	Balance	16	23
2024-08-16	61.19	60.52	-13.57	10787683	Balance	18	24
2024-08-09	60.41	60.92	-11.62	11626088	Balance	-6	17
2024-08-02	62.86	61.35	-8.40	17883923	Downward Expansion	-2	14
2024-07-26	58.85	61.55	-16.32	11228425	Downward Expansion	-32	19
2024-07-19	58.65	62.12	-17.72	9575322	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2024-07-12	57.87	62.71	-20.79	8279620	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2024-07-05	57.36	63.31	-21.28	5866872	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2024-06-28	56.81	63.75	-21.02	11877725	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2024-06-21	54.72	64.08	-24.42	14847342	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2024-06-14	54.24	64.36	-25.14	13351104	Downward Expansion	-79	76
2024-06-07	57.03	64.66	-20.63	10502365	Downward Expansion	-68	62
2024-05-31	57.40	64.72	-19.61	10750263	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2024-05-24	59.05	64.61	-18.21	9181293	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2024-05-17	62.08	64.31	-14.42	13306256	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2024-05-10	60.10	64.02	-15.86	22480526	Downward Expansion	-44	28
2024-05-03	61.89	63.87	-11.71	9838845	Deceleration	-24	22
2024-04-26	60.89	63.70	-12.71	9306609	Deceleration	-27	30
2024-04-19	57.55	63.62	-15.42	10826985	Deceleration	-40	33
2024-04-12	60.85	63.68	-13.61	11453702	Deceleration	-26	24
2024-04-05	60.08	63.74	-16.28	13410020	Deceleration	-32	28
2024-03-29	61.15	63.92	-15.95	12107308	Rotation Down	-19	24
2024-03-22	61.57	64.07	-15.63	12673272	Rotation Down	-22	38
2024-03-15	59.66	63.99	-16.87	14341060	Rotation Down	-27	56
2024-03-08	61.86	63.98	-14.40	21555260	Deceleration	-24	39
2024-03-01	60.40	63.98	-17.15	21316714	Deceleration	-27	39
2024-02-23	58.01	64.01	-20.38	21109435	Deceleration	-34	36
2024-02-16	58.59	64.21	-18.78	45020947	Deceleration	2	14
2024-02-09	71.60	64.34	-1.85	12482704	Deceleration	43	32
2024-02-02	70.82	64.18	-1.66	12275146	Upward Expansion	46	36
2024-01-26	71.91	63.90	1.13	9538731	Upward Expansion	48	38
2024-01-19	73.36	63.62	4.19	7681010	Upward Expansion	63	51
2024-01-12	73.21	63.31	5.41	16874327	Upward Expansion	64	57
2024-01-05	69.03	63.13	1.46	9191771	Upward Expansion	67	81
2023-12-29	75.87	62.96	10.02	6446352	Upward Expansion	76	91
2023-12-22	76.28	62.67	11.44	10098789	Rotation Up	85	93
2023-12-15	75.96	62.13	12.63	15991510	Rotation Up	63	80
2023-12-08	70.61	61.30	7.71	15231980	Rotation Up	46	62
2023-12-01	66.76	60.48	2.58	15894409	Balance	35	39
2023-11-24	63.04	60.00	-2.01	7210435	Balance	9	19
2023-11-17	63.11	59.65	-0.71	18172126	Downward Expansion	-21	15
2023-11-10	58.84	59.45	-5.11	34199249	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2023-11-03	54.10	59.48	-11.65	10633151	Rotation Down	-63	71
2023-10-27	50.19	59.70	-13.14	9127928	Rotation Down	-52	68
2023-10-20	53.33	60.25	-10.92	9140658	Rotation Down	-43	58
2023-10-13	55.58	60.52	-10.33	8913122	Balance	-26	43

Price vs TrendAbove+49.6%

Trend directionRising+25.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+163.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+48.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+65.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+23.7%

Price momentumPositive+125.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.59×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

82 / ±100

+23.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

73 /100

+18.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TWLO Directional State ↗ TWLO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance11

Rotation Up74

Upward Expansion88

Deceleration48

Rotation Down12

Downward Expansion14

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 38%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 10%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-10-02	Developing	+42.5%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-07-10	New	+2.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-06-26	Developing	+4.5%
Balance	2026-03-13	2026-04-24	Developing	+15.5%
Rotation Down	2026-02-27	2026-03-06	New	+5.8%
Deceleration	2026-01-23	2026-02-20	Developing	-11.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2026-01-16	Developing	-5.0%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-11-07	Established	+20.8%
Rotation Up	2025-06-06	2025-08-08	Developing	-18.9%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-05-30	New	+3.7%
Deceleration	2025-05-09	2025-05-16	New	+10.1%
Rotation Down	2025-04-11	2025-05-02	New	+15.3%
Deceleration	2025-03-07	2025-04-04	Developing	-21.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-04	2025-02-28	Established	+77.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution51

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: 65.30
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +125.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +107.3%
Technology regime cohort: 71th percentile41 in cohort

Test TWLO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.35×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.59×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TWLO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 266.35rising

Slow Activity USD 219.97rising

Trend Reference USD 196.91+49.6% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 112.01+163.0% close margin

Structural low USD 112.99shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.3%

Annualized volatility +67.3%

From structural high -3.7%

From structural low +186.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	17	+0.7%-19.3% to +25.7%	+58.8%	+58.8%	-1.0%	+76.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-8.9%-26.1% to +67.6%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-8.2%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+21.6%-25.1% to +58.2%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+23.2%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+20.9%-10.7% to +52.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TWLO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map