Weekly structural research · NYSE · Real Estate

MAC Stage Analysis

Macerich Company

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 22.25Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -30−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 41/100directional strength

Maturity 4/100lifecycle context

Confidence 67/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +28.7%USD 17.29 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	22.25	22.93	-2.24	15478538	Rotation Down	-30	41
2026-10-02	23.05	22.80	2.70	18944421	Deceleration	-22	43
2026-09-25	22.64	22.65	0.88	15444925	Deceleration	-6	39
2026-09-18	22.63	22.56	2.30	18142800	Deceleration	-6	26
2026-09-11	22.44	22.48	1.60	21591295	Deceleration	-7	22
2026-09-04	23.07	22.33	3.79	13899844	Deceleration	16	19
2026-08-28	23.57	22.21	6.30	9531095	Deceleration	33	24
2026-08-21	24.20	22.05	9.85	9292049	Upward Expansion	41	26
2026-08-14	24.52	21.84	10.12	19412839	Upward Expansion	47	37
2026-08-07	24.40	21.64	10.14	37050269	Upward Expansion	61	49
2026-07-31	25.84	21.43	21.22	12057589	Upward Expansion	67	58
2026-07-24	25.83	21.17	23.26	11378390	Upward Expansion	69	62
2026-07-17	25.92	20.93	23.63	10396879	Upward Expansion	74	70
2026-07-10	24.69	20.68	16.66	10644531	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-07-03	25.46	20.46	22.55	17023140	Upward Expansion	74	85
2026-06-26	25.83	20.19	27.74	27137324	Upward Expansion	84	89
2026-06-19	23.63	19.90	14.86	30121471	Upward Expansion	65	79
2026-06-12	25.28	19.65	24.49	15484545	Upward Expansion	91	92
2026-06-05	23.50	19.37	17.08	14255635	Upward Expansion	82	74
2026-05-29	22.37	19.17	9.08	8224391	Upward Expansion	71	58
2026-05-22	22.02	18.98	9.18	12559249	Upward Expansion	70	59
2026-05-15	21.45	18.83	7.66	30230831	Upward Expansion	63	59
2026-05-08	21.72	18.68	9.46	15893325	Upward Expansion	69	76
2026-05-01	21.36	18.49	10.44	15558366	Upward Expansion	65	77
2026-04-24	21.06	18.36	10.22	9760983	Upward Expansion	61	73
2026-04-17	22.15	18.24	16.85	13320077	Upward Expansion	78	75
2026-04-10	21.28	18.07	17.66	11133701	Upward Expansion	70	42
2026-04-03	19.40	17.95	11.64	8670727	Upward Expansion	39	20
2026-03-27	18.21	17.91	8.51	9905579	Upward Expansion	24	19
2026-03-20	18.00	17.90	4.80	8245803	Upward Expansion	29	15
2026-03-13	18.43	17.88	5.24	8544080	Upward Expansion	53	34
2026-03-06	18.51	17.82	4.06	9966959	Upward Expansion	57	40
2026-02-27	20.15	17.74	10.99	10548625	Upward Expansion	74	70
2026-02-20	19.98	17.59	9.54	12726192	Upward Expansion	75	61
2026-02-13	18.23	17.49	0.87	12400613	Upward Expansion	53	34
2026-02-06	19.31	17.42	5.07	11980149	Upward Expansion	70	47
2026-01-30	18.64	17.30	0.79	9766353	Upward Expansion	60	35
2026-01-23	18.06	17.21	-2.34	6971870	Upward Expansion	52	32
2026-01-16	18.45	17.13	-1.05	7980358	Upward Expansion	60	50
2026-01-09	18.03	17.03	-3.95	8057777	Upward Expansion	58	59
2026-01-02	18.23	16.94	-1.76	5551277	Upward Expansion	59	64
2025-12-26	18.65	16.85	-0.98	4587732	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-12-19	18.34	16.74	-1.64	11771843	Deceleration	62	52
2025-12-12	18.21	16.61	-2.61	10310993	Deceleration	59	29
2025-12-05	17.32	16.51	-8.41	6543010	Deceleration	23	12
2025-11-28	16.93	16.41	-10.72	6991089	Deceleration	17	9
2025-11-21	16.18	16.33	-12.07	9739292	Deceleration	5	6
2025-11-14	16.79	16.26	-10.98	6539772	Deceleration	33	18
2025-11-07	17.58	16.17	-7.07	12371424	Deceleration	44	23
2025-10-31	16.73	16.03	-13.28	8949996	Deceleration	30	18
2025-10-24	17.58	15.93	-8.60	7321323	Deceleration	41	19
2025-10-17	16.82	15.89	-11.09	10401734	Deceleration	31	18
2025-10-10	16.09	15.88	-13.79	8071883	Upward Expansion	28	17
2025-10-03	17.60	15.87	-8.29	13790853	Upward Expansion	57	38
2025-09-26	17.46	15.82	-8.19	14399055	Upward Expansion	57	43
2025-09-19	17.01	15.81	-11.01	11930922	Upward Expansion	61	64
2025-09-12	17.70	15.87	-6.53	9244373	Upward Expansion	64	76
2025-09-05	18.12	15.92	-2.85	5546920	Rotation Up	75	78
2025-08-29	17.78	15.98	-4.28	7618418	Rotation Up	48	61
2025-08-22	17.51	16.04	-5.73	7179647	Rotation Up	45	36
2025-08-15	16.63	16.11	-10.16	11561587	Balance	34	27
2025-08-08	16.13	16.18	-11.98	7886848	Balance	-2	13
2025-08-01	15.60	16.25	-12.83	10650453	Balance	-2	17
2025-07-25	17.08	16.38	-6.94	8731161	Balance	17	37
2025-07-18	16.01	16.44	-11.48	6734659	Balance	-2	13
2025-07-11	15.73	16.55	-12.60	7036470	Balance	-9	13
2025-07-04	16.08	16.70	-10.95	5265377	Balance	-6	11
2025-06-27	15.62	16.86	-12.00	8873194	Downward Expansion	-20	14
2025-06-20	15.40	17.01	-10.32	7519593	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2025-06-13	15.21	17.12	-11.49	8989046	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2025-06-06	15.57	17.22	-9.71	6757176	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2025-05-30	15.47	17.32	-8.82	10070231	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2025-05-23	14.24	17.37	-14.64	8137968	Downward Expansion	-48	34
2025-05-16	15.33	17.47	-10.55	10836851	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2025-05-09	14.32	17.55	-12.09	6702806	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2025-05-02	14.52	17.64	-11.35	9196673	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2025-04-25	14.18	17.71	-10.94	9379923	Downward Expansion	-64	78
2025-04-18	14.04	17.80	-7.96	7332381	Downward Expansion	-69	81
2025-04-11	13.31	17.89	-14.08	19362447	Downward Expansion	-83	85
2025-04-04	13.88	17.96	-5.56	16935036	Rotation Down	-86	85
2025-03-28	16.33	17.98	0.92	6227314	Rotation Down	-36	68
2025-03-21	16.46	17.93	0.11	16035665	Rotation Down	-36	68
2025-03-14	15.77	17.87	-3.67	16641854	Rotation Down	-41	63
2025-03-07	16.14	17.80	-3.72	13601359	Upward Expansion	-38	40
2025-02-28	17.09	17.73	-1.31	18347715	Upward Expansion	-5	10
2025-02-21	18.77	17.62	7.31	5358044	Upward Expansion	49	29
2025-02-14	19.42	17.50	9.26	7225903	Upward Expansion	53	38
2025-02-07	19.74	17.35	12.70	5755144	Deceleration	59	38
2025-01-31	19.68	17.17	12.31	7681905	Deceleration	46	27
2025-01-24	19.43	16.96	10.06	7362972	Deceleration	41	24
2025-01-17	18.75	16.79	8.08	8691700	Deceleration	37	22
2025-01-10	18.28	16.62	8.56	7973243	Upward Expansion	41	28
2025-01-03	19.45	16.46	13.39	4534825	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-12-27	19.07	16.28	10.86	3400444	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-12-20	19.19	16.11	12.41	19276181	Upward Expansion	67	73
2024-12-13	20.36	15.93	17.29	8139935	Upward Expansion	75	88
2024-12-06	20.94	15.73	20.10	14406517	Upward Expansion	89	92
2024-11-29	20.09	15.50	16.82	27839691	Upward Expansion	87	86
2024-11-22	18.68	15.27	10.56	4635800	Upward Expansion	77	73
2024-11-15	18.25	15.13	10.52	9179271	Upward Expansion	74	61
2024-11-08	18.33	14.99	9.27	10023413	Upward Expansion	81	72
2024-11-01	17.20	14.87	8.10	7703594	Upward Expansion	66	71
2024-10-25	16.99	14.79	5.82	5499942	Upward Expansion	66	76
2024-10-18	17.73	14.75	9.99	6385456	Upward Expansion	81	87
2024-10-11	17.02	14.68	7.05	4547900	Upward Expansion	72	83
2024-10-04	16.78	14.60	7.22	6142561	Upward Expansion	73	81
2024-09-27	16.85	14.54	8.52	8992596	Balance	80	79
2024-09-20	16.57	14.49	7.80	14084608	Balance	50	61
2024-09-13	15.48	14.45	2.53	8717156	Balance	35	41
2024-09-06	14.41	14.46	-0.55	4657933	Balance	4	11
2024-08-30	14.99	14.49	-0.61	6446547	Balance	-2	4
2024-08-23	14.61	14.46	-2.70	6918065	Balance	-21	13
2024-08-16	13.79	14.48	-6.61	6539760	Balance	-36	17
2024-08-09	13.93	14.49	-1.85	6034852	Balance	-19	13
2024-08-02	13.84	14.51	-2.43	8198346	Balance	-18	17
2024-07-26	15.07	14.50	4.01	7061246	Balance	16	17
2024-07-19	14.94	14.46	2.55	9605941	Balance	-14	12
2024-07-12	14.35	14.43	-3.29	6794453	Balance	-34	15
2024-07-05	13.54	14.44	-7.70	6620475	Deceleration	-55	32
2024-06-28	14.33	14.39	-0.36	8503664	Deceleration	-49	25
2024-06-21	13.62	14.28	-5.13	9227692	Deceleration	-27	25
2024-06-14	13.44	14.16	-5.52	7264377	Deceleration	-30	21
2024-06-07	13.85	14.06	-0.92	7459892	Deceleration	-23	14
2024-05-31	14.03	13.91	1.87	5830244	Deceleration	8	9
2024-05-24	13.89	13.77	0.80	7857363	Deceleration	2	13
2024-05-17	14.42	13.60	5.19	11395224	Deceleration	6	15
2024-05-10	14.03	13.44	4.53	15436039	Deceleration	4	19
2024-05-03	13.12	13.29	0.10	18368555	Deceleration	-8	19
2024-04-26	14.39	13.17	10.78	6268890	Deceleration	18	17
2024-04-19	14.04	13.01	11.56	8435427	Deceleration	30	17
2024-04-12	14.76	12.88	14.35	7957390	Upward Expansion	43	33
2024-04-05	14.79	12.76	13.63	6711507	Upward Expansion	54	39
2024-03-29	15.82	12.61	21.08	5090476	Upward Expansion	67	49
2024-03-22	15.61	12.44	20.59	8255293	Upward Expansion	67	48
2024-03-15	14.81	12.25	17.78	10224721	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-03-08	14.95	12.10	19.55	9425449	Upward Expansion	61	53
2024-03-01	15.17	11.97	21.51	12710321	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-02-23	15.37	11.84	24.66	7028167	Upward Expansion	66	59
2024-02-16	15.81	11.70	30.72	16016685	Upward Expansion	78	66
2024-02-09	15.40	11.54	27.27	16723119	Upward Expansion	76	63
2024-02-02	14.08	11.37	18.24	8967762	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-01-26	15.17	11.23	29.13	9801062	Upward Expansion	80	68
2024-01-19	14.24	11.06	22.67	7196723	Upward Expansion	70	69
2024-01-12	14.27	10.89	24.61	6183078	Upward Expansion	72	86
2024-01-05	13.59	10.75	21.20	5658247	Upward Expansion	68	88
2023-12-29	14.03	10.62	23.43	5375937	Upward Expansion	75	91
2023-12-22	14.01	10.46	24.10	9324163	Upward Expansion	84	91
2023-12-15	14.55	10.26	30.40	21964891	Upward Expansion	90	87
2023-12-08	12.18	10.06	12.15	9596648	Balance	70	57
2023-12-01	11.03	9.92	1.76	7881056	Balance	42	28
2023-11-24	9.99	9.85	-7.24	3544397	Balance	-2	9
2023-11-17	10.29	9.80	-4.00	11396840	Rotation Down	-1	6
2023-11-10	9.39	9.74	-10.84	8182429	Rotation Down	-20	22
2023-11-03	10.04	9.71	-3.94	11433838	Rotation Down	-18	30
2023-10-27	8.69	9.66	-12.32	11254065	Rotation Down	-43	59
2023-10-20	9.45	9.68	-7.25	8886541	Deceleration	-25	37

Price vs TrendBelow-2.9%

Trend directionRising+7.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+28.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-24.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-2.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-18.9%

Price momentumPositive+4.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.80×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-30 / ±100

-23.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

41 /100

+19.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MAC Directional State ↗ MAC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion26

Deceleration54

Rotation Down64

Downward Expansion47

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 49%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 8%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2026-08-28	2026-10-02	Developing	-2.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-08-21	Extended	+29.7%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-12-19	Developing	+9.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-10-10	Developing	-9.1%
Rotation Up	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	+3.5%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-08-15	Developing	+3.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-06-27	Developing	+17.3%
Rotation Down	2025-03-14	2025-04-04	New	-11.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-14	2025-03-07	New	-16.9%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-02-07	New	+5.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-04	2025-01-10	Established	+8.9%
Balance	2024-07-12	2024-09-27	Developing	+17.4%
Deceleration	2024-04-19	2024-07-05	Developing	-3.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing15

Stage 2 · Advancing59

Stage 3 · Distribution69

Stage 4 · Declining41

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 64/100
Current Relative Strength: -2.24
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +4.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.3%
Real Estate regime cohort: 9th percentile53 in cohort

Test MAC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.92×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.80×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MAC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 22.60falling

Slow Activity USD 23.58rising

Trend Reference USD 22.93-2.9% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 17.29+28.7% close margin

Structural low USD 20.82shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +5.5%

Annualized volatility +27.0%

From structural high -16.6%

From structural low +42.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	-5.8%-15.6% to +15.1%	+20.0%	+80.0%	-5.4%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+2.4%-21.2% to +74.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-5.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+9.3%-27.2% to +65.7%	+75.0%	+25.0%	-2.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+16.9%-14.4% to +72.4%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-2.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MAC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map