Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Cyclical

ONON Stage Analysis

On Holding Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 35.09Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -29−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 21/100directional strength

Maturity 70/100lifecycle context

Confidence 92/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -15.7%USD 41.63 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	35.09	34.70	-17.90	55045394	Downward Expansion	-29	21
2026-10-02	30.85	34.79	-27.48	49586845	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-09-25	29.96	35.15	-30.30	98723234	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2026-09-18	27.26	35.70	-36.34	55697725	Downward Expansion	-73	87
2026-09-11	27.41	36.44	-36.76	35227370	Downward Expansion	-76	89
2026-09-04	27.99	37.03	-36.56	30218119	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2026-08-28	28.85	37.55	-35.30	35574179	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2026-08-21	30.02	38.10	-33.08	41916584	Downward Expansion	-79	69
2026-08-14	32.22	38.63	-29.94	92643415	Balance	-69	51
2026-08-07	37.55	39.06	-19.00	20904245	Balance	-45	24
2026-07-31	36.24	39.44	-19.70	19572299	Balance	-50	26
2026-07-24	35.82	39.80	-20.47	22565738	Balance	-44	25
2026-07-17	37.20	40.16	-18.71	15245169	Balance	-34	20
2026-07-10	38.54	40.54	-17.99	21006232	Balance	-31	18
2026-07-03	36.83	40.88	-21.38	20582714	Balance	-37	20
2026-06-26	37.07	41.26	-20.10	31790958	Balance	-24	15
2026-06-19	38.88	41.49	-19.05	18525388	Balance	-16	14
2026-06-12	38.58	41.57	-19.83	20421913	Balance	-17	17
2026-06-05	37.08	41.70	-23.34	26500913	Downward Expansion	-31	23
2026-05-29	40.82	41.63	-18.80	21169317	Downward Expansion	-25	20
2026-05-22	39.81	41.51	-20.75	31960424	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2026-05-15	37.26	41.57	-26.21	61565103	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2026-05-08	35.24	41.72	-31.06	28859571	Downward Expansion	-49	37
2026-05-01	34.54	41.94	-31.61	21346233	Downward Expansion	-64	47
2026-04-24	36.25	42.19	-28.33	20338391	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-04-17	36.95	42.40	-27.18	28343278	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2026-04-10	33.55	42.68	-31.44	40246506	Downward Expansion	-71	83
2026-04-03	33.03	42.99	-30.69	33005960	Downward Expansion	-77	85
2026-03-27	32.39	43.40	-30.23	64462178	Rotation Down	-84	84
2026-03-20	37.66	43.83	-21.30	21763604	Rotation Down	-38	58
2026-03-13	37.99	44.12	-22.54	34312170	Balance	-36	38
2026-03-06	41.46	44.37	-17.30	47974897	Balance	-2	3
2026-02-27	46.48	44.51	-9.59	21222344	Balance	42	21
2026-02-20	49.42	44.53	-4.72	15272102	Balance	59	24
2026-02-13	45.29	44.57	-11.92	19231254	Balance	26	18
2026-02-06	43.47	44.83	-16.97	29464705	Balance	-7	12
2026-01-30	45.25	45.13	-14.43	24163493	Balance	8	8
2026-01-23	45.96	45.43	-13.51	18619260	Balance	11	12
2026-01-16	45.05	45.65	-16.22	30098169	Rotation Up	24	19
2026-01-09	49.12	45.91	-9.71	26368316	Rotation Up	29	33
2026-01-02	46.95	46.01	-12.91	15479545	Rotation Up	21	44
2025-12-26	46.78	46.33	-14.71	12178215	Rotation Up	22	40
2025-12-19	48.57	46.75	-10.76	22881703	Balance	28	38
2025-12-12	48.76	47.08	-10.87	24494034	Balance	10	27
2025-12-05	48.14	47.45	-13.02	31038209	Downward Expansion	-5	18
2025-11-28	43.99	47.49	-20.74	19232146	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2025-11-21	41.28	47.66	-23.48	34951764	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2025-11-14	42.40	47.78	-23.56	104180451	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2025-11-07	35.00	47.79	-37.20	38103640	Downward Expansion	-87	87
2025-10-31	37.15	48.07	-34.95	38121651	Downward Expansion	-84	75
2025-10-24	41.70	48.15	-26.94	23004985	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2025-10-17	41.82	48.23	-25.77	22834455	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2025-10-10	41.86	48.38	-24.75	26743048	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2025-10-03	42.10	48.53	-26.54	29246824	Downward Expansion	-70	65
2025-09-26	42.47	48.69	-25.54	26491834	Rotation Down	-70	55
2025-09-19	45.23	48.89	-21.39	27669189	Rotation Down	-33	39
2025-09-12	42.89	48.99	-24.88	28752174	Rotation Down	-47	54
2025-09-05	45.52	49.30	-19.42	18592126	Rotation Down	-26	48
2025-08-29	45.08	49.66	-20.16	19872758	Rotation Down	-31	58
2025-08-22	46.56	50.16	-17.83	27850640	Rotation Down	-25	57
2025-08-15	45.34	50.61	-19.89	73463538	Rotation Down	-43	58
2025-08-08	45.66	51.03	-18.67	34426177	Balance	-42	40
2025-08-01	47.03	51.40	-14.23	32535381	Balance	-36	26
2025-07-25	50.76	51.71	-9.62	25443050	Balance	-4	7
2025-07-18	53.12	51.88	-3.88	17800528	Deceleration	6	8
2025-07-11	52.44	52.01	-4.28	20786130	Deceleration	5	11
2025-07-04	54.31	52.17	-0.79	25117384	Balance	7	12
2025-06-27	52.49	52.28	-2.08	42679438	Balance	1	6
2025-06-20	52.67	52.48	1.96	16987425	Rotation Up	17	20
2025-06-13	52.26	52.66	1.34	23281761	Rotation Up	22	44
2025-06-06	56.56	52.65	9.51	17641727	Rotation Up	26	58
2025-05-30	59.39	52.48	17.26	16518512	Rotation Up	33	56
2025-05-23	58.44	52.05	17.93	20962094	Downward Expansion	31	38
2025-05-16	59.90	51.79	18.45	49679355	Downward Expansion	5	21
2025-05-09	49.42	51.41	3.55	16857181	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2025-05-02	48.91	51.42	2.71	19369428	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2025-04-25	45.03	51.52	-2.22	17545189	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-04-18	42.50	51.72	-3.10	16302279	Downward Expansion	-63	51
2025-04-11	43.51	51.97	-1.83	51490913	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2025-04-04	39.61	52.14	-5.20	57521817	Rotation Down	-80	71
2025-03-28	44.15	52.30	-3.55	19087335	Rotation Down	-45	59
2025-03-21	46.25	52.40	-0.20	17255324	Rotation Down	-41	62
2025-03-14	46.44	52.34	1.06	23135591	Rotation Down	-33	60
2025-03-07	46.66	52.21	-0.38	36837959	Rotation Down	-34	49
2025-02-28	48.48	52.00	0.70	27147094	Balance	-30	36
2025-02-21	48.44	51.67	-0.04	18375032	Balance	-10	19
2025-02-14	52.03	51.39	6.07	27831641	Upward Expansion	24	17
2025-02-07	56.41	51.00	17.29	19221558	Upward Expansion	56	39
2025-01-31	59.88	50.37	25.32	20211230	Upward Expansion	64	45
2025-01-24	60.15	49.61	25.92	13742032	Deceleration	67	45
2025-01-17	57.98	48.90	24.84	15042674	Deceleration	49	34
2025-01-10	56.63	48.29	26.73	12382630	Upward Expansion	45	35
2025-01-03	56.62	47.80	25.44	9276699	Upward Expansion	57	43
2024-12-27	55.63	47.33	23.81	6383017	Upward Expansion	59	49
2024-12-20	57.14	46.89	29.18	13499483	Upward Expansion	64	71
2024-12-13	57.30	46.33	28.38	14560418	Upward Expansion	66	82
2024-12-06	57.64	45.69	29.33	15618854	Upward Expansion	71	82
2024-11-29	58.33	44.78	33.13	11243448	Upward Expansion	80	80
2024-11-22	58.13	43.94	35.32	17568678	Upward Expansion	81	55
2024-11-15	51.92	43.10	24.01	32934737	Deceleration	64	41
2024-11-08	51.49	42.42	21.29	18495930	Deceleration	55	35
2024-11-01	46.50	41.80	15.50	14564660	Upward Expansion	45	32
2024-10-25	50.65	41.32	24.61	17652100	Upward Expansion	64	50
2024-10-18	48.33	40.81	18.65	13805142	Upward Expansion	63	53
2024-10-11	50.00	40.35	24.59	15331781	Upward Expansion	64	69
2024-10-04	51.71	39.79	31.45	16620170	Upward Expansion	74	80
2024-09-27	51.13	39.17	31.46	19329258	Upward Expansion	77	78
2024-09-20	49.95	38.62	30.02	25075545	Upward Expansion	78	80
2024-09-13	48.63	38.03	29.18	23370473	Upward Expansion	77	77
2024-09-06	44.44	37.47	23.43	17502702	Upward Expansion	62	70
2024-08-30	46.98	36.97	25.62	36155245	Upward Expansion	80	77
2024-08-23	44.57	36.33	20.12	23967311	Upward Expansion	74	59
2024-08-16	42.54	35.72	16.71	43633059	Upward Expansion	66	40
2024-08-09	40.23	35.23	15.01	23481683	Deceleration	54	32
2024-08-02	38.67	34.82	10.46	20912923	Deceleration	38	23
2024-07-26	40.22	34.42	12.21	17241119	Deceleration	43	24
2024-07-19	40.06	33.98	10.69	32723615	Deceleration	42	23
2024-07-12	37.51	33.58	1.47	19423158	Upward Expansion	39	23
2024-07-05	37.19	33.36	1.35	15383471	Upward Expansion	46	35
2024-06-28	38.80	33.07	7.58	26208627	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-06-21	39.72	32.79	9.94	27326725	Upward Expansion	66	80
2024-06-14	42.00	32.41	17.11	19944195	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-06-07	42.35	31.93	20.33	19744880	Upward Expansion	76	86
2024-05-31	42.54	31.42	22.67	21722327	Upward Expansion	82	82
2024-05-24	40.23	30.94	16.04	22359409	Upward Expansion	77	65
2024-05-17	38.12	30.41	10.27	59476525	Deceleration	70	38
2024-05-10	30.40	29.98	-10.42	27184096	Deceleration	22	14
2024-05-03	33.27	29.75	-0.79	13343181	Deceleration	38	20
2024-04-26	32.79	29.48	-2.17	11214098	Deceleration	36	20
2024-04-19	31.58	29.31	-3.70	19458091	Upward Expansion	40	25
2024-04-12	32.87	29.20	-3.35	20332628	Upward Expansion	55	38
2024-04-05	31.98	29.10	-7.64	18436664	Upward Expansion	59	43
2024-03-29	35.38	29.02	0.95	14091187	Upward Expansion	71	64
2024-03-22	34.71	28.81	-0.87	24776959	Upward Expansion	72	75
2024-03-15	33.23	28.62	-3.39	68402120	Upward Expansion	64	72
2024-03-08	33.09	28.52	-3.60	30306742	Upward Expansion	66	77
2024-03-01	34.65	28.57	1.03	23110302	Balance	78	78
2024-02-23	32.20	28.59	-4.90	12726298	Balance	41	52
2024-02-16	31.74	28.69	-4.41	31980472	Balance	37	34
2024-02-09	29.50	28.78	-11.22	19940126	Balance	-6	3
2024-02-02	27.70	28.91	-15.32	23819275	Balance	-44	21
2024-01-26	26.25	29.03	-18.62	21203077	Balance	-44	27
2024-01-19	27.96	29.26	-12.51	20925904	Balance	-33	21
2024-01-12	28.02	29.32	-11.17	36828740	Balance	-33	22
2024-01-05	26.57	29.38	-14.04	21074691	Balance	-38	18
2023-12-29	26.97	29.50	-13.93	15691693	Balance	-21	11
2023-12-22	28.03	29.54	-9.94	29790746	Balance	-8	15
2023-12-15	30.88	29.52	0.60	21562487	Balance	22	24
2023-12-08	28.63	29.38	-3.87	21127850	Balance	-21	19
2023-12-01	30.26	29.52	2.37	25464591	Downward Expansion	-12	17
2023-11-24	28.48	29.64	-2.35	10120371	Downward Expansion	-33	24
2023-11-17	27.60	29.77	-3.97	47550179	Downward Expansion	-41	23
2023-11-10	26.90	29.96	-3.72	19486805	Downward Expansion	-55	35
2023-11-03	28.06	30.09	2.14	22107296	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2023-10-27	24.51	30.13	-5.07	17006081	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2023-10-20	25.04	30.35	-5.04	16139471	Downward Expansion	-66	74

Price vs TrendAbove+1.1%

Trend directionFalling-12.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-15.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-8.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-17.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.1%

Price momentumPositive+4.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.74×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-29 / ±100

+47.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

21 /100

-67.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ONON Directional State ↗ ONON Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance31

Rotation Up30

Upward Expansion18

Deceleration44

Rotation Down29

Downward Expansion66

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 27%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-10-09	Developing	+16.9%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-08-14	Developing	-16.5%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-06-05	Developing	+12.3%
Rotation Down	2026-03-20	2026-03-27	New	-14.0%
Balance	2026-01-23	2026-03-13	Developing	-17.3%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-01-16	New	-3.7%
Balance	2025-12-12	2025-12-19	New	-0.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-03	2025-12-05	Developing	+14.3%
Rotation Down	2025-08-15	2025-09-26	Developing	-6.3%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	-10.0%
Deceleration	2025-07-11	2025-07-18	New	+1.3%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-07-04	New	+3.5%
Rotation Up	2025-05-30	2025-06-20	New	-11.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-05-23	Developing	+34.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing19

Stage 3 · Distribution39

Stage 4 · Declining81

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 90/100
Current Relative Strength: -17.90
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +4.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.3%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 10th percentile99 in cohort

Test ONON trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.50×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.74×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ONON Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 31.38rising

Slow Activity USD 33.60falling

Trend Reference USD 34.70+1.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 41.63-15.7% close margin

Structural low USD 26.36shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.9%

Annualized volatility +44.2%

From structural high -31.3%

From structural low +33.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+6.4%-11.8% to +18.4%	+72.7%	+27.3%	+5.0%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+14.9%+11.5% to +20.5%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+5.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	+0.4%-19.9% to +38.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-17.4%	+75.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+44.2%-22.9% to +111.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+11.7%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ONON Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map