Weekly structural research · LSE · Healthcare

STX Stage Analysis

Shield Therapeutics plc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close GBP 0.053Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -33−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 17/100directional strength

Maturity 98/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +3.2%GBP 0.0513 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.053	0.0636	-32.68	8194941	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2026-10-02	0.0595	0.0646	-24.45	11738209	Downward Expansion	-32	23
2026-09-25	0.052	0.0655	-35.84	13584252	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2026-09-18	0.047	0.0671	-42.23	7638080	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2026-09-11	0.0466	0.0688	-43.29	13918981	Downward Expansion	-55	34
2026-09-04	0.055	0.0708	-35.04	1479927	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2026-08-28	0.061	0.0721	-28.50	12625632	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2026-08-21	0.0485	0.0737	-43.38	1738484	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2026-08-14	0.0435	0.0756	-49.42	3584733	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2026-08-07	0.038	0.0783	-56.65	1146599	Downward Expansion	-94	97
2026-07-31	0.0395	0.0805	-54.97	17094739	Downward Expansion	-94	87
2026-07-24	0.0615	0.0825	-29.25	1283574	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2026-07-17	0.062	0.084	-27.69	575604	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-07-10	0.064	0.0857	-24.28	140133	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2026-07-03	0.0615	0.087	-28.05	817886	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2026-06-26	0.061	0.0887	-27.03	256950	Downward Expansion	-67	56
2026-06-19	0.065	0.09	-20.72	981222	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2026-06-12	0.065	0.0901	-20.86	2933980	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2026-06-05	0.0615	0.0902	-23.75	8475717	Downward Expansion	-71	84
2026-05-29	0.0595	0.0904	-25.97	10439258	Downward Expansion	-77	85
2026-05-22	0.0635	0.0906	-20.83	12924247	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2026-05-15	0.068	0.091	-12.26	6043954	Downward Expansion	-73	73
2026-05-08	0.0686	0.0912	-10.91	24870498	Balance	-46	48
2026-05-01	0.079	0.0916	2.32	16650461	Balance	-23	13
2026-04-24	0.0885	0.0916	15.90	6191885	Balance	-7	8
2026-04-17	0.0935	0.091	20.95	11157539	Balance	-2	7
2026-04-10	0.0944	0.0906	24.85	10311579	Rotation Down	-16	21
2026-04-03	0.086	0.0904	17.27	14366043	Rotation Down	-20	42
2026-03-27	0.08	0.0902	15.77	10826152	Rotation Down	-25	44
2026-03-20	0.081	0.0898	19.31	11561480	Balance	-23	34
2026-03-13	0.0824	0.0898	18.84	11453477	Balance	-3	13
2026-03-06	0.089	0.089	29.75	9596511	Balance	7	9
2026-02-27	0.10	0.0875	39.30	5303644	Balance	29	16
2026-02-20	0.0965	0.0857	39.45	8368776	Upward Expansion	32	16
2026-02-13	0.106	0.0841	59.01	6153529	Upward Expansion	37	20
2026-02-06	0.096	0.0817	47.52	9631928	Upward Expansion	41	28
2026-01-30	0.1075	0.0796	70.59	14503262	Upward Expansion	54	38
2026-01-23	0.1075	0.077	75.94	11550929	Upward Expansion	57	41
2026-01-16	0.122	0.0744	102.45	9120515	Upward Expansion	75	52
2026-01-09	0.105	0.0712	81.57	8615833	Upward Expansion	61	48
2026-01-02	0.0985	0.0685	77.69	6679652	Upward Expansion	62	53
2025-12-26	0.1075	0.0661	100.06	6237088	Upward Expansion	65	80
2025-12-19	0.1125	0.0633	114.54	9487958	Upward Expansion	76	87
2025-12-12	0.1025	0.0604	106.49	14092590	Upward Expansion	70	82
2025-12-05	0.115	0.0577	137.74	36114603	Deceleration	86	81
2025-11-28	0.099	0.0547	110.28	44857154	Deceleration	75	43
2025-11-21	0.0675	0.0522	50.08	5853842	Deceleration	19	17
2025-11-14	0.0675	0.0507	49.84	5828813	Deceleration	32	20
2025-11-07	0.0685	0.0493	54.62	9543451	Deceleration	36	21
2025-10-31	0.0665	0.0479	51.91	15321065	Deceleration	40	29
2025-10-24	0.073	0.0466	70.30	12059288	Deceleration	45	38
2025-10-17	0.076	0.0451	84.99	6097836	Upward Expansion	47	40
2025-10-10	0.08	0.0436	95.52	10561795	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-10-03	0.0785	0.042	92.95	15012669	Upward Expansion	63	59
2025-09-26	0.072	0.0405	83.54	18753150	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-09-19	0.08	0.0392	107.32	22372275	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-09-12	0.09	0.0377	136.10	22092351	Upward Expansion	88	87
2025-09-05	0.0775	0.0361	109.19	44164398	Upward Expansion	82	89
2025-08-29	0.07	0.0345	91.26	22919472	Upward Expansion	81	92
2025-08-22	0.0806	0.0331	118.80	45264469	Upward Expansion	98	99
2025-08-15	0.0565	0.0314	59.61	19550020	Upward Expansion	92	96
2025-08-08	0.046	0.0303	31.62	2548109	Upward Expansion	78	90
2025-08-01	0.045	0.0296	29.17	9576568	Upward Expansion	83	88
2025-07-25	0.0485	0.029	39.63	40257132	Upward Expansion	91	87
2025-07-18	0.0355	0.0283	5.17	10664190	Balance	39	52
2025-07-11	0.032	0.028	-3.68	4542407	Balance	26	26
2025-07-04	0.0285	0.0279	-12.35	3009920	Balance	-9	13
2025-06-27	0.031	0.0279	-3.85	9683155	Downward Expansion	-9	12
2025-06-20	0.0242	0.0278	-24.08	2417200	Downward Expansion	-41	22
2025-06-13	0.0252	0.028	-21.46	2427781	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2025-06-06	0.0258	0.028	-19.65	3452379	Downward Expansion	-44	27
2025-05-30	0.024	0.0281	-24.43	1513443	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2025-05-23	0.0245	0.0283	-22.26	5529730	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2025-05-16	0.0235	0.0288	-25.18	3893378	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-05-09	0.024	0.0296	-22.17	4655496	Downward Expansion	-61	60
2025-05-02	0.024	0.0303	-22.13	5634215	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2025-04-25	0.0235	0.0309	-21.73	14152520	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2025-04-18	0.0235	0.0317	-19.92	13111960	Balance	-66	50
2025-04-11	0.027	0.0322	-3.89	13000545	Balance	-46	30
2025-04-04	0.027	0.0328	-4.20	7014198	Balance	-47	30
2025-03-28	0.03	0.0336	-0.32	8903378	Balance	-32	18
2025-03-21	0.031	0.0343	3.67	13465315	Balance	-23	13
2025-03-14	0.03	0.0345	0.95	8641476	Balance	-11	14
2025-03-07	0.0345	0.0348	15.82	6971413	Balance	19	32
2025-02-28	0.033	0.035	9.57	15049837	Balance	-0	25
2025-02-21	0.036	0.0348	22.17	7721090	Rotation Up	5	27
2025-02-14	0.0405	0.0342	36.64	27784721	Rotation Up	15	25
2025-02-07	0.03	0.0334	-0.08	22560630	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2025-01-31	0.028	0.033	-8.60	5367056	Downward Expansion	-49	44
2025-01-24	0.03	0.0326	-2.66	15871666	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2025-01-17	0.0235	0.0322	-25.62	18629394	Downward Expansion	-48	67
2025-01-10	0.025	0.0321	-21.04	5240516	Downward Expansion	-44	59
2025-01-03	0.0272	0.032	-16.57	5732481	Downward Expansion	-34	48
2024-12-27	0.027	0.0318	-18.93	3491281	Rotation Down	-36	42
2024-12-20	0.0272	0.0316	-19.55	8007812	Rotation Down	-25	31
2024-12-13	0.0275	0.0314	-22.70	9583012	Rotation Down	-25	38
2024-12-06	0.0295	0.0311	-19.02	10535264	Rotation Down	-22	46
2024-11-29	0.029	0.0306	-21.81	3214927	Rotation Down	-22	46
2024-11-22	0.0285	0.0302	-24.50	56250746	Deceleration	-21	34
2024-11-15	0.027	0.0297	-28.06	3910482	Deceleration	-6	25
2024-11-08	0.0275	0.0293	-28.20	6352147	Deceleration	-3	14
2024-11-01	0.03	0.0289	-24.12	27210312	Deceleration	24	14
2024-10-25	0.04	0.0284	-1.59	10744729	Upward Expansion	43	29
2024-10-18	0.0455	0.0278	9.10	8003292	Upward Expansion	57	39
2024-10-11	0.047	0.027	12.79	4623965	Upward Expansion	52	36
2024-10-04	0.042	0.0262	-0.47	7002214	Upward Expansion	56	40
2024-09-27	0.048	0.0256	11.24	23166905	Upward Expansion	69	53
2024-09-20	0.037	0.0248	-14.66	10663520	Upward Expansion	64	57
2024-09-13	0.0445	0.0245	-1.55	20715415	Upward Expansion	67	82
2024-09-06	0.052	0.025	13.24	47715637	Rotation Up	86	94
2024-08-30	0.05	0.0252	3.30	22920997	Rotation Up	63	86
2024-08-23	0.038	0.0255	-23.06	13860558	Rotation Up	46	77
2024-08-16	0.038	0.0264	-25.03	24957636	Rotation Up	51	66
2024-08-09	0.041	0.0274	-19.96	50118504	Rotation Up	45	42
2024-08-02	0.0265	0.0285	-49.84	41407750	Downward Expansion	-1	4
2024-07-26	0.0205	0.03	-63.03	54140380	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2024-07-19	0.016	0.0316	-71.65	6009031	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2024-07-12	0.0165	0.0332	-71.97	4213192	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2024-07-05	0.0175	0.0348	-70.64	8260002	Downward Expansion	-55	45
2024-06-28	0.0185	0.0363	-69.43	4642641	Downward Expansion	-40	38
2024-06-21	0.0195	0.0378	-68.61	9018334	Downward Expansion	-43	39
2024-06-14	0.0205	0.0391	-67.27	5931424	Downward Expansion	-40	34
2024-06-07	0.0215	0.0404	-66.61	11372110	Downward Expansion	-42	40
2024-05-31	0.0205	0.0417	-68.76	10248026	Downward Expansion	-48	49
2024-05-24	0.024	0.0431	-64.17	39429377	Downward Expansion	-52	55
2024-05-17	0.0175	0.0443	-74.54	24018246	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2024-05-10	0.0152	0.0458	-78.20	8170249	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-05-03	0.0155	0.0474	-77.66	62961888	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-04-26	0.0135	0.0493	-80.71	21673040	Downward Expansion	-76	80
2024-04-19	0.0148	0.0514	-78.64	12545497	Downward Expansion	-76	74
2024-04-12	0.0152	0.0546	-78.53	22394465	Downward Expansion	-79	72
2024-04-05	0.017	0.0575	-76.12	22770412	Downward Expansion	-80	78
2024-03-29	0.0202	0.0607	-72.03	7268516	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2024-03-22	0.022	0.0634	-69.87	7089555	Downward Expansion	-74	91
2024-03-15	0.0225	0.066	-68.72	8761109	Downward Expansion	-82	94
2024-03-08	0.0252	0.0685	-65.00	18563694	Downward Expansion	-88	96
2024-03-01	0.0225	0.0714	-69.27	37645256	Downward Expansion	-98	99
2024-02-23	0.0285	0.0745	-61.68	212676123	Downward Expansion	-96	94
2024-02-16	0.0585	0.0772	-22.35	4233958	Downward Expansion	-67	69
2024-02-09	0.058	0.0786	-22.08	5751083	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2024-02-02	0.0615	0.0789	-18.13	13246509	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2024-01-26	0.0625	0.0792	-17.00	6413863	Downward Expansion	-34	25
2024-01-19	0.0686	0.0793	-6.83	8284295	Downward Expansion	-14	26
2024-01-12	0.076	0.0795	1.14	10884952	Downward Expansion	-16	27
2024-01-05	0.0715	0.0792	-5.36	7446980	Downward Expansion	-37	35
2023-12-29	0.067	0.0791	-11.67	1614805	Downward Expansion	-44	52
2023-12-22	0.0645	0.0791	-14.70	5172961	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2023-12-15	0.064	0.0792	-14.19	7038800	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2023-12-08	0.0625	0.0793	-16.08	20232456	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2023-12-01	0.063	0.0798	-15.21	19249407	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2023-11-24	0.059	0.0802	-20.30	9502186	Rotation Down	-66	57
2023-11-17	0.0605	0.0807	-19.31	4957796	Rotation Down	-38	62
2023-11-10	0.0594	0.0811	-20.36	5361079	Rotation Down	-41	67
2023-11-03	0.063	0.0812	-16.79	4808436	Rotation Down	-30	65
2023-10-27	0.059	0.081	-21.09	3164889	Rotation Down	-35	66
2023-10-20	0.063	0.081	-17.35	10696299	Upward Expansion	-33	42

Price vs TrendBelow-16.6%

Trend directionFalling-21.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+3.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-32.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-8.4%

Price momentumNegative-43.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.17×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-33 / ±100

+22.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

17 /100

-17.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

STX Directional State ↗ STX Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance45

Rotation Up28

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration44

Rotation Down29

Downward Expansion56

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 47%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-10-09	Established	-22.1%
Balance	2026-04-17	2026-05-08	New	-26.6%
Rotation Down	2026-03-27	2026-04-10	New	+18.0%
Balance	2026-02-27	2026-03-20	New	-19.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-02-20	Developing	-5.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-12-05	Developing	+57.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-10-17	Established	+56.7%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-07-18	New	+24.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-06-27	Developing	+31.9%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-04-18	Developing	-28.8%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-02-21	New	-11.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-02-07	Developing	+10.1%
Rotation Down	2024-11-29	2024-12-27	Developing	-6.9%
Deceleration	2024-11-01	2024-11-22	New	-5.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing37

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution33

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 82/100
Current Relative Strength: -32.68
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -43.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -43.4%
Healthcare regime cohort: 5th percentile39 in cohort

Test STX trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.38×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.17×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore STX Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 0.0533rising

Slow Activity GBP 0.0568falling

Trend Reference GBP 0.0636-16.6% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 0.0513+3.2% close margin

Structural low GBP 0.037shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +17.6%

Annualized volatility +89.8%

From structural high -57.6%

From structural low +43.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	37	-1.0%-58.2% to +148.5%	+45.9%	+54.1%	-1.7%	+81.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	-15.6%-64.3% to +143.9%	+23.1%	+76.9%	-19.4%	+69.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-36.2%-67.5% to +89.1%	+42.9%	+57.1%	-41.7%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-16.7%-77.1% to +261.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-26.4%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

STX Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map