Weekly structural research · NYSEARCA · Market

WEAT Stage Analysis

TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 24.41Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 26−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 56/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -0.6%USD 24.55 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	24.41	24.05	-2.13	1489382	Deceleration	26	20
2026-10-02	24.75	24.02	0.39	2078452	Upward Expansion	39	22
2026-09-25	25.50	23.98	3.26	2248255	Upward Expansion	56	40
2026-09-18	25.86	23.88	6.12	3000039	Upward Expansion	63	68
2026-09-11	26.25	23.76	7.74	2390330	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-09-04	26.49	23.58	8.04	5070111	Upward Expansion	67	77
2026-08-28	28.00	23.39	14.45	5605393	Upward Expansion	88	80
2026-08-21	25.41	23.16	4.54	2361729	Upward Expansion	69	48
2026-08-14	24.97	23.00	1.34	2450477	Upward Expansion	66	56
2026-08-07	23.91	22.85	-2.87	2122330	Upward Expansion	55	60
2026-07-31	23.81	22.73	-0.07	2857034	Upward Expansion	54	59
2026-07-24	25.22	22.60	6.80	3312322	Balance	68	62
2026-07-17	25.25	22.44	6.22	2461363	Balance	66	43
2026-07-10	23.72	22.27	-1.90	1856112	Balance	25	12
2026-07-03	22.41	22.16	-6.33	1678316	Balance	5	14
2026-06-26	22.17	22.10	-5.74	1831579	Balance	2	15
2026-06-19	22.94	22.06	-5.15	1919057	Upward Expansion	25	20
2026-06-12	22.34	21.99	-7.33	2601794	Upward Expansion	26	14
2026-06-05	22.28	21.95	-7.55	3508946	Upward Expansion	35	25
2026-05-29	23.38	21.90	-5.93	2808019	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-05-22	24.55	21.83	-0.25	5165784	Upward Expansion	70	62
2026-05-15	24.11	21.70	-1.60	5224984	Upward Expansion	66	51
2026-05-08	23.41	21.57	-4.56	4653724	Upward Expansion	58	40
2026-05-01	24.01	21.46	-0.27	5606894	Deceleration	69	40
2026-04-24	23.19	21.35	-3.21	3390719	Deceleration	49	28
2026-04-17	22.47	21.28	-6.26	3643438	Upward Expansion	41	26
2026-04-10	21.79	21.23	-5.74	6884446	Upward Expansion	45	32
2026-04-03	22.87	21.21	1.71	5202197	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-03-27	23.17	21.14	5.90	4807591	Upward Expansion	66	76
2026-03-20	22.85	21.08	1.79	5763471	Upward Expansion	67	82
2026-03-13	23.43	21.02	2.01	9093282	Upward Expansion	79	88
2026-03-06	23.61	20.94	0.77	4934893	Upward Expansion	90	89
2026-02-27	22.57	20.87	-5.95	1557479	Balance	85	80
2026-02-20	22.17	20.84	-8.49	1390663	Balance	54	56
2026-02-13	20.98	20.84	-13.00	1412755	Balance	-1	13
2026-02-06	20.70	20.90	-15.87	1200058	Balance	-23	17
2026-01-30	20.97	20.96	-15.53	1504180	Balance	-16	11
2026-01-23	20.75	21.03	-16.59	666966	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2026-01-16	20.36	21.08	-18.89	659791	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2026-01-09	20.34	21.20	-19.71	582999	Downward Expansion	-57	54
2026-01-02	20.00	21.30	-20.28	448907	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2025-12-26	20.44	21.41	-19.82	428986	Downward Expansion	-54	49
2025-12-19	19.98	21.48	-20.96	1298059	Downward Expansion	-70	51
2025-12-12	20.53	21.59	-19.13	644212	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2025-12-05	20.70	21.65	-19.35	1047802	Downward Expansion	-39	21
2025-11-28	20.84	21.70	-18.95	1215503	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2025-11-21	20.95	21.77	-15.93	2841568	Downward Expansion	-32	21
2025-11-14	21.05	21.85	-17.58	2867344	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-11-07	20.95	21.94	-18.28	4551412	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2025-10-31	21.20	22.04	-19.14	4385289	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2025-10-24	20.55	22.11	-21.62	2646080	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2025-10-17	20.25	22.19	-21.83	3552874	Downward Expansion	-74	76
2025-10-10	20.20	22.33	-21.21	3141364	Downward Expansion	-80	73
2025-10-03	20.75	22.48	-21.63	3767182	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2025-09-26	20.95	22.58	-20.61	3807849	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2025-09-19	21.05	22.69	-21.01	4119704	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2025-09-12	21.00	22.86	-20.75	3132849	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2025-09-05	20.85	23.04	-20.68	3827265	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2025-08-29	21.40	23.20	-18.90	2666006	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2025-08-22	21.10	23.32	-20.50	2495089	Downward Expansion	-72	78
2025-08-15	21.10	23.42	-20.65	3043293	Downward Expansion	-76	76
2025-08-08	21.50	23.51	-18.83	4816163	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2025-08-01	21.50	23.58	-17.36	3077382	Downward Expansion	-75	66
2025-07-25	22.30	23.64	-16.85	4029217	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2025-07-18	22.60	23.69	-14.87	4293026	Downward Expansion	-53	38
2025-07-11	22.50	23.72	-15.13	2984143	Downward Expansion	-54	28
2025-07-04	23.15	23.77	-13.34	5245274	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2025-06-27	22.40	23.80	-15.20	4481206	Downward Expansion	-47	22
2025-06-20	24.00	23.86	-6.54	3743724	Downward Expansion	-22	15
2025-06-13	23.10	23.88	-10.55	3329020	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2025-06-06	23.40	23.91	-10.28	3134961	Downward Expansion	-55	35
2025-05-30	22.65	23.98	-12.37	1669626	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2025-05-23	23.10	24.08	-9.93	3541034	Downward Expansion	-60	59
2025-05-16	22.35	24.16	-15.85	5480963	Downward Expansion	-68	69
2025-05-09	22.20	24.28	-12.77	3767041	Downward Expansion	-75	63
2025-05-02	23.05	24.43	-10.60	5378278	Downward Expansion	-62	37
2025-04-25	23.20	24.55	-8.06	3667853	Downward Expansion	-60	40
2025-04-18	23.80	24.64	-2.01	2519035	Downward Expansion	-53	45
2025-04-11	24.15	24.70	-2.35	5854987	Downward Expansion	-54	48
2025-04-04	23.10	24.78	-1.62	5738087	Balance	-67	58
2025-03-28	23.10	24.86	-10.82	5598306	Balance	-58	39
2025-03-21	24.45	24.92	-7.41	5062055	Balance	-34	27
2025-03-14	24.45	24.90	-7.26	5985265	Balance	-29	18
2025-03-07	24.05	24.91	-11.11	7079811	Rotation Up	-0	11
2025-02-28	24.15	24.96	-13.81	5727912	Rotation Up	9	28
2025-02-21	26.15	24.99	-7.98	3449683	Rotation Up	34	54
2025-02-14	26.50	24.94	-8.59	5713342	Downward Expansion	40	40
2025-02-07	25.60	24.90	-10.73	4767793	Downward Expansion	-4	15
2025-01-31	24.75	24.91	-14.32	6317935	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2025-01-24	24.20	24.99	-17.65	4448536	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2025-01-17	23.75	25.07	-18.42	4717742	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-01-10	23.55	25.16	-17.37	3574674	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2025-01-03	23.35	25.32	-20.29	2445305	Downward Expansion	-72	65
2024-12-27	23.95	25.53	-19.42	2089213	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2024-12-20	23.30	25.78	-21.80	2914162	Downward Expansion	-79	74
2024-12-13	24.10	26.08	-21.30	2726680	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2024-12-06	24.20	26.29	-22.15	3577602	Downward Expansion	-67	71
2024-11-29	23.95	26.51	-23.03	2355256	Downward Expansion	-74	70
2024-11-22	24.65	26.69	-20.55	2954659	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2024-11-15	24.20	26.84	-21.29	3738753	Balance	-62	49
2024-11-08	25.55	26.93	-19.26	2606913	Balance	-39	27
2024-11-01	25.55	26.97	-16.14	2354411	Balance	-34	19
2024-10-25	25.55	27.03	-17.96	2793401	Balance	-20	15
2024-10-18	25.70	27.08	-19.06	2843201	Balance	-14	17
2024-10-11	26.90	27.11	-15.35	2833448	Downward Expansion	-2	14
2024-10-04	26.60	27.06	-15.97	4508931	Downward Expansion	-23	23
2024-09-27	26.05	27.03	-18.12	3008144	Downward Expansion	-33	25
2024-09-20	25.55	27.04	-19.80	2426141	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2024-09-13	26.50	27.07	-16.30	3146482	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2024-09-06	25.40	27.06	-17.16	3850165	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-08-30	24.85	27.14	-22.84	3100934	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2024-08-23	23.95	27.27	-25.99	3642167	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2024-08-16	24.80	27.43	-23.01	2788711	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2024-08-09	25.35	27.54	-18.91	3372270	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2024-08-02	25.10	27.66	-20.37	3958001	Downward Expansion	-70	79
2024-07-26	24.60	27.80	-24.27	3585592	Rotation Down	-72	77
2024-07-19	25.45	27.97	-23.10	4804519	Rotation Down	-47	64
2024-07-12	25.80	28.10	-24.32	4642039	Deceleration	-37	49
2024-07-05	27.20	28.23	-20.15	2346129	Deceleration	-11	31
2024-06-28	26.55	28.32	-21.19	6053628	Deceleration	-18	32
2024-06-21	26.60	28.40	-21.69	3206121	Upward Expansion	8	16
2024-06-14	28.45	28.44	-16.63	3751962	Upward Expansion	46	36
2024-06-07	29.50	28.42	-12.84	3403289	Upward Expansion	64	67
2024-05-31	31.60	28.39	-6.03	2748510	Rotation Up	74	85
2024-05-24	32.10	28.30	-5.34	4632787	Rotation Up	57	78
2024-05-17	30.45	28.20	-10.61	4418349	Rotation Up	36	64
2024-05-10	30.85	28.16	-8.40	4215482	Rotation Up	44	54
2024-05-03	29.35	28.10	-11.74	3253732	Downward Expansion	30	29
2024-04-26	29.25	28.09	-12.14	5727769	Downward Expansion	-0	12
2024-04-19	26.70	28.04	-18.16	2306079	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2024-04-12	26.75	28.12	-21.19	3042466	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-04-05	27.30	28.22	-21.50	2859536	Downward Expansion	-44	29
2024-03-29	27.05	28.30	-23.63	4350698	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-03-22	26.65	28.38	-25.25	3154450	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2024-03-15	25.50	28.52	-27.68	2634284	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2024-03-08	25.70	28.72	-28.01	3194080	Downward Expansion	-77	83
2024-03-01	26.20	28.94	-27.59	2550720	Downward Expansion	-75	79
2024-02-23	26.60	29.15	-26.55	2060925	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2024-02-16	26.15	29.42	-27.38	3808854	Downward Expansion	-83	70
2024-02-09	27.95	29.70	-23.55	2387742	Balance	-62	47
2024-02-02	28.60	29.86	-21.59	2535403	Balance	-40	31
2024-01-26	28.65	29.98	-21.09	2418677	Balance	-39	26
2024-01-19	28.30	30.10	-21.98	2504788	Balance	-44	24
2024-01-12	28.70	30.36	-20.69	2338563	Balance	-24	11
2024-01-05	29.40	30.55	-17.98	2186961	Balance	-12	13
2023-12-29	29.85	30.63	-18.74	3035067	Balance	-8	16
2023-12-22	29.30	30.69	-20.81	2987131	Downward Expansion	-28	20
2023-12-15	29.70	30.76	-19.81	3520379	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2023-12-08	29.90	30.79	-18.09	5445847	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2023-12-01	28.80	30.86	-21.51	4392582	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2023-11-24	27.75	31.00	-24.35	2577260	Downward Expansion	-71	63
2023-11-17	27.85	31.14	-24.06	3779267	Downward Expansion	-73	54
2023-11-10	28.80	31.34	-20.49	3899045	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2023-11-03	28.85	31.53	-20.06	2493646	Downward Expansion	-51	40
2023-10-27	29.00	31.72	-15.94	3196772	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2023-10-20	29.35	31.93	-17.82	4776369	Downward Expansion	-60	54

Price vs TrendAbove+1.5%

Trend directionRising+5.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-0.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+4.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-2.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-0.2%

Price momentumPositive+12.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.67×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

26 / ±100

-37.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

20 /100

-53.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

WEAT Directional State ↗ WEAT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance47

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion55

Deceleration91

Rotation Down34

Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 56%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-10-02	Developing	+3.9%
Balance	2026-06-26	2026-07-24	Developing	+13.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-06-19	Developing	-2.0%
Deceleration	2026-04-24	2026-05-01	New	+3.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-04-17	Developing	-4.8%
Balance	2026-01-30	2026-02-27	Developing	+7.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2026-01-23	Extended	-14.1%
Balance	2025-03-14	2025-04-04	New	-5.5%
Rotation Up	2025-02-21	2025-03-07	New	-8.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-02-14	Established	+7.5%
Balance	2024-10-18	2024-11-15	Developing	-5.8%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-02	2024-10-11	Developing	+7.2%
Rotation Down	2024-07-19	2024-07-26	New	-3.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing44

Stage 2 · Advancing71

Stage 3 · Distribution47

Stage 4 · Declining29

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 33/100
Current Relative Strength: -2.13
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +12.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -2.9%
Sector regime cohort: 33th percentile895 in cohort

Test WEAT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.56×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.67×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore WEAT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 25.03falling

Slow Activity USD 24.62rising

Trend Reference USD 24.05+1.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 24.55-0.6% close margin

Structural low USD 21.64shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +6.0%

Annualized volatility +27.5%

From structural high -14.1%

From structural low +23.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	-0.8%-17.8% to +30.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+1.9%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+3.4%-7.4% to +36.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+1.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-9.8%-18.2% to +22.2%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-17.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-7.8%-15.6% to +0.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-6.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

WEAT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map