Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Industrials

AAON Stage Analysis

AAON Inc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 83.27Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -50−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 44/100directional strength

Maturity 45/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -9.3%USD 91.79 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	83.27	101.66	-25.36	5401397	Downward Expansion	-50	44
2026-09-25	89.10	101.83	-20.12	7061985	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2026-09-18	76.76	102.22	-29.21	6042800	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2026-09-11	79.80	103.07	-26.17	4212839	Rotation Down	-67	80
2026-09-04	79.40	103.77	-27.22	5302895	Rotation Down	-43	71
2026-08-28	75.77	104.33	-30.56	5836885	Rotation Down	-52	73
2026-08-21	79.34	104.83	-27.35	5269009	Rotation Down	-44	69
2026-08-14	87.69	105.33	-22.10	8522449	Rotation Down	-37	63
2026-08-07	94.71	105.54	-15.12	4957842	Deceleration	-31	50
2026-07-31	88.95	105.15	-16.32	6975127	Deceleration	-34	33
2026-07-24	102.67	104.82	-3.10	5015343	Deceleration	-1	17
2026-07-17	111.42	103.92	3.52	5181363	Deceleration	24	22
2026-07-10	114.16	102.71	1.91	4676451	Deceleration	33	20
2026-07-03	107.62	101.50	-1.96	4130916	Upward Expansion	34	22
2026-06-26	126.78	100.82	16.72	4609071	Upward Expansion	57	41
2026-06-19	136.72	99.71	20.89	3697996	Upward Expansion	66	53
2026-06-12	127.19	98.19	16.17	4847808	Upward Expansion	63	57
2026-06-05	132.62	97.08	24.53	5823134	Upward Expansion	66	82
2026-05-29	140.09	96.16	25.71	4160307	Upward Expansion	76	88
2026-05-22	134.50	94.76	24.26	4891010	Upward Expansion	76	86
2026-05-15	135.39	93.81	26.49	6847091	Upward Expansion	85	85
2026-05-08	139.55	92.53	29.74	13573704	Upward Expansion	87	77
2026-05-01	93.52	91.18	-8.38	4120577	Balance	10	19
2026-04-24	99.51	91.33	-1.80	3490878	Balance	20	18
2026-04-17	93.91	91.04	-5.72	5719136	Downward Expansion	-23	11
2026-04-10	93.10	90.95	-1.26	3023432	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2026-04-03	81.30	90.58	-10.29	2961742	Downward Expansion	-58	52
2026-03-27	81.42	90.57	-7.00	3479274	Balance	-49	40
2026-03-20	79.95	90.61	-11.86	4725187	Balance	-33	28
2026-03-13	83.73	90.79	-9.82	3566981	Balance	-10	6
2026-03-06	88.15	90.64	-6.36	6287141	Upward Expansion	37	29
2026-02-27	101.00	90.38	5.70	4511227	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-02-20	102.09	89.72	6.78	2743010	Upward Expansion	64	67
2026-02-13	100.84	89.09	6.29	4774872	Balance	62	58
2026-02-06	96.23	88.34	-0.36	5424796	Balance	25	30
2026-01-30	90.88	87.68	-8.39	4067686	Balance	9	19
2026-01-23	94.27	87.15	-5.97	3094603	Balance	22	18
2026-01-16	93.89	86.45	-7.22	5520013	Rotation Down	10	11
2026-01-09	83.15	85.71	-19.47	6063462	Rotation Down	-22	41
2026-01-02	79.03	85.36	-22.74	4788556	Rotation Down	-25	54
2025-12-26	75.62	85.93	-28.20	2526424	Rotation Down	-31	53
2025-12-19	75.19	86.61	-28.63	6469185	Deceleration	-33	41
2025-12-12	77.77	87.39	-26.73	4927889	Deceleration	-26	26
2025-12-05	87.35	88.34	-20.33	4655827	Deceleration	19	18
2025-11-28	93.29	88.75	-15.18	2636028	Deceleration	36	18
2025-11-21	91.24	88.93	-14.03	4331773	Upward Expansion	41	24
2025-11-14	93.75	88.81	-15.44	4840480	Upward Expansion	57	40
2025-11-07	105.20	88.42	-6.38	9132890	Upward Expansion	68	49
2025-10-31	98.09	87.70	-16.23	4426493	Upward Expansion	63	64
2025-10-24	105.91	86.89	-8.52	3152993	Upward Expansion	80	79
2025-10-17	96.94	85.95	-14.90	5809766	Upward Expansion	63	68
2025-10-10	99.19	85.36	-11.33	4788853	Balance	62	69
2025-10-03	98.02	84.77	-14.88	4204259	Balance	43	54
2025-09-26	90.73	84.22	-20.72	5730662	Balance	22	30
2025-09-19	91.28	83.74	-21.13	8111830	Balance	23	16
2025-09-12	81.93	84.13	-28.13	6051939	Balance	-18	10
2025-09-05	80.90	85.15	-28.14	2414220	Balance	-29	13
2025-08-29	82.59	86.18	-26.30	4196015	Balance	-28	13
2025-08-22	85.61	87.28	-24.23	4773380	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2025-08-15	79.21	88.83	-30.86	15174754	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2025-08-08	80.17	90.50	-30.01	5557269	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-08-01	81.30	91.87	-26.75	6490810	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2025-07-25	83.01	93.13	-27.16	5880884	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2025-07-18	78.35	94.38	-30.90	6820591	Downward Expansion	-61	56
2025-07-11	76.50	95.88	-31.96	7650325	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2025-07-04	74.92	97.68	-33.87	3553194	Downward Expansion	-64	79
2025-06-27	73.27	99.73	-34.62	7153579	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2025-06-20	71.78	101.80	-33.59	3843701	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2025-06-13	72.67	103.96	-32.96	8591656	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2025-06-06	96.26	105.95	-11.86	2518172	Balance	-6	18
2025-05-30	95.77	107.32	-10.26	2080352	Balance	-5	22
2025-05-23	98.57	107.88	-5.69	2086090	Balance	-5	24
2025-05-16	106.30	108.27	-0.47	2318402	Downward Expansion	-5	22
2025-05-09	99.69	108.35	0.13	4123893	Downward Expansion	-30	27
2025-05-02	98.84	108.75	-0.63	4813899	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2025-04-25	87.47	109.02	-8.83	4054999	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2025-04-18	82.02	109.64	-9.26	2603088	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2025-04-11	83.71	110.35	-9.66	4726649	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2025-04-04	73.80	110.68	-14.50	4012090	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2025-03-28	77.66	111.11	-19.13	3086091	Downward Expansion	-72	88
2025-03-21	79.22	111.68	-19.67	4891128	Rotation Down	-74	90
2025-03-14	81.60	112.17	-17.28	5788095	Rotation Down	-50	81
2025-03-07	81.53	112.38	-19.53	9527280	Rotation Down	-58	81
2025-02-28	76.29	112.53	-27.26	7614593	Rotation Down	-56	76
2025-02-21	102.95	112.82	-5.50	2567060	Deceleration	-39	54
2025-02-14	112.41	112.28	0.91	2345971	Deceleration	-4	17
2025-02-07	112.03	111.41	3.63	4134253	Deceleration	-0	5
2025-01-31	115.61	110.65	7.36	5946432	Deceleration	16	13
2025-01-24	131.83	109.68	21.31	2219156	Deceleration	51	29
2025-01-17	129.32	108.17	21.76	3321163	Deceleration	42	24
2025-01-10	121.27	106.48	18.36	2268759	Deceleration	33	28
2025-01-03	119.22	104.95	14.54	1590674	Deceleration	39	28
2024-12-27	120.62	103.35	15.53	1162342	Upward Expansion	47	39
2024-12-20	123.31	101.81	19.78	2908002	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-12-13	130.45	100.29	24.59	1783050	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-12-06	136.34	98.41	32.14	2001939	Upward Expansion	71	80
2024-11-29	135.44	96.42	36.82	1743168	Upward Expansion	74	88
2024-11-22	136.43	94.49	40.37	2647456	Upward Expansion	84	91
2024-11-15	132.50	92.96	40.35	2613921	Upward Expansion	87	86
2024-11-08	137.25	91.36	41.92	2743443	Upward Expansion	97	90
2024-11-01	112.66	89.69	24.30	2281734	Upward Expansion	75	81
2024-10-25	110.39	88.91	20.80	1398241	Upward Expansion	72	87
2024-10-18	108.56	88.14	19.84	2094040	Upward Expansion	69	87
2024-10-11	111.64	87.37	24.44	1341385	Upward Expansion	82	92
2024-10-04	106.93	86.37	21.61	1665100	Upward Expansion	79	87
2024-09-27	106.32	85.51	21.88	1998588	Upward Expansion	84	80
2024-09-20	103.30	84.71	20.43	2821395	Upward Expansion	82	70
2024-09-13	93.44	84.04	11.23	1279755	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-09-06	86.77	83.71	9.82	1293046	Upward Expansion	56	49
2024-08-30	94.74	83.50	13.19	1379391	Upward Expansion	69	60
2024-08-23	93.79	82.76	11.49	1597342	Upward Expansion	68	44
2024-08-16	87.97	81.94	6.02	1489724	Upward Expansion	55	32
2024-08-09	85.97	81.33	9.44	2711164	Upward Expansion	50	31
2024-08-02	85.09	80.80	8.95	3480774	Upward Expansion	55	48
2024-07-26	86.88	80.36	8.01	2151429	Upward Expansion	55	56
2024-07-19	86.24	79.90	4.55	2911585	Upward Expansion	56	50
2024-07-12	89.30	79.45	4.02	2367261	Balance	65	46
2024-07-05	86.34	78.81	0.37	2819095	Balance	47	32
2024-06-28	86.53	78.09	4.22	12218774	Rotation Down	24	13
2024-06-21	78.64	77.27	-5.24	4655714	Rotation Down	-17	20
2024-06-14	75.35	76.75	-9.13	3520675	Rotation Down	-21	39
2024-06-07	71.41	76.31	-11.01	3580213	Rotation Down	-34	48
2024-05-31	74.36	75.87	-5.07	2766533	Deceleration	-24	32
2024-05-24	77.54	75.29	-2.63	2565895	Deceleration	3	24
2024-05-17	74.19	74.48	-5.58	3616044	Deceleration	-5	18
2024-05-10	76.58	73.76	-0.58	19050003	Deceleration	22	17
2024-05-03	77.68	73.06	2.15	5416505	Upward Expansion	38	27
2024-04-26	90.31	72.35	19.56	2073734	Upward Expansion	74	57
2024-04-19	84.63	71.22	16.56	2213225	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-04-12	87.20	70.27	13.59	2912875	Upward Expansion	65	61
2024-04-05	89.09	69.37	15.48	1709817	Upward Expansion	77	67
2024-03-29	87.29	68.56	12.36	1022682	Upward Expansion	77	66
2024-03-22	85.66	67.82	9.63	1725760	Upward Expansion	77	66
2024-03-15	81.69	66.96	7.68	2654519	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-03-08	80.92	66.27	5.36	2614404	Upward Expansion	68	85
2024-03-01	82.42	65.65	5.45	3065816	Upward Expansion	70	88
2024-02-23	83.20	65.05	8.34	1425822	Upward Expansion	81	92
2024-02-16	83.44	64.54	10.30	2235700	Upward Expansion	88	91
2024-02-09	80.57	63.97	5.13	2260893	Upward Expansion	87	64
2024-02-02	72.58	63.47	-3.33	2118207	Upward Expansion	70	49
2024-01-26	69.23	63.12	-6.71	1603426	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-01-19	69.61	62.89	-5.65	1344165	Upward Expansion	64	64
2024-01-12	70.10	62.67	-2.35	1369801	Upward Expansion	67	81
2024-01-05	71.71	62.43	2.99	1575974	Upward Expansion	69	86
2023-12-29	73.12	62.14	1.71	794566	Rotation Up	82	89
2023-12-22	72.67	61.71	1.32	2373656	Rotation Up	60	77
2023-12-15	70.39	61.26	-1.02	3155000	Rotation Up	47	63
2023-12-08	64.68	60.92	-6.11	1998655	Balance	30	35
2023-12-01	61.90	60.84	-9.86	1626586	Balance	6	22
2023-11-24	63.10	61.04	-8.24	908480	Downward Expansion	-8	19
2023-11-17	62.06	61.08	-9.13	1918268	Downward Expansion	-24	15
2023-11-10	58.04	61.19	-13.50	2453389	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2023-11-03	57.21	61.35	-12.50	1574276	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2023-10-27	53.13	61.47	-13.55	2233011	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2023-10-20	52.56	61.82	-16.70	2299036	Downward Expansion	-76	76
2023-10-13	55.52	62.07	-14.46	1308135	Downward Expansion	-66	72

Price vs TrendBelow-18.1%

Trend directionFalling-3.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-9.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-29.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-25.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-23.4%

Price momentumPositive+2.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.54×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-50 / ±100

-7.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

44 /100

-27.3 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AAON Directional State ↗ AAON Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance28

Rotation Up26

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration62

Rotation Down43

Downward Expansion69

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 39%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 21%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	+8.5%
Rotation Down	2026-08-14	2026-09-11	Developing	-9.0%
Deceleration	2026-07-10	2026-08-07	Developing	-17.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-07-03	Developing	-22.9%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-05-01	New	-6.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-04-17	New	+15.5%
Balance	2026-03-13	2026-03-27	New	-2.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-03-06	New	-13.7%
Balance	2026-01-23	2026-02-13	New	+7.0%
Rotation Down	2025-12-26	2026-01-16	New	+24.2%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2025-12-19	New	-19.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-17	2025-11-21	Developing	-5.9%
Balance	2025-08-29	2025-10-10	Developing	+20.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-13	2025-08-22	Developing	+17.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing41

Stage 2 · Advancing1

Stage 3 · Distribution41

Stage 4 · Declining99

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -25.36
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +2.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -25.7%
Industrials regime cohort: 10th percentile106 in cohort

Test AAON trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.01×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.54×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AAON Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 82.80rising

Slow Activity USD 98.74falling

Trend Reference USD 101.66-18.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 91.79-9.3% close margin

Structural low USD 73.41shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +12.7%

Annualized volatility +79.4%

From structural high -44.6%

From structural low +14.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+5.3%-13.3% to +15.0%	+86.7%	+13.3%	+1.1%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+9.2%-5.7% to +32.4%	+85.7%	+14.3%	+10.6%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+16.8%+2.4% to +57.3%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+12.0%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+4.8%-12.9% to +88.8%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+4.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AAON Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map