Weekly structural research · LSE · Financial Services

ARBB Stage Analysis

Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close GBP 800.00Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -34−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 17/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 71/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -13.3%GBP 923.25 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	800.00	826.68	-8.47	34748	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2026-10-02	795.00	829.42	-8.67	114989	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2026-09-25	800.00	831.91	-10.56	164839	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2026-09-18	795.00	834.23	-11.40	65856	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2026-09-11	780.00	836.81	-13.59	144801	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2026-09-04	800.00	840.04	-13.57	7157	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2026-08-28	795.00	842.28	-14.86	74285	Downward Expansion	-59	52
2026-08-21	776.59	844.86	-17.56	4822	Downward Expansion	-69	54
2026-08-14	805.71	848.13	-14.63	140786	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2026-08-07	808.13	850.59	-16.21	39574	Downward Expansion	-56	35
2026-07-31	815.41	852.98	-15.90	4923	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2026-07-24	803.28	855.37	-16.80	24863	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2026-07-17	835.00	858.00	-12.90	1739	Downward Expansion	-50	34
2026-07-10	820.00	859.82	-14.14	6502	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2026-07-03	815.00	861.98	-16.64	4547	Downward Expansion	-56	29
2026-06-26	832.50	864.72	-14.02	14113	Downward Expansion	-49	24
2026-06-19	840.00	866.54	-12.55	7842	Downward Expansion	-49	25
2026-06-12	835.00	867.70	-14.47	21529	Downward Expansion	-51	28
2026-06-05	840.00	869.77	-13.59	6104	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2026-05-29	825.00	871.93	-15.90	42049	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2026-05-22	840.00	874.83	-15.29	35463	Downward Expansion	-54	39
2026-05-15	840.00	876.91	-13.54	27645	Downward Expansion	-54	41
2026-05-08	845.00	878.90	-13.76	36585	Downward Expansion	-54	38
2026-05-01	850.00	880.72	-14.76	15642	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2026-04-24	855.00	883.37	-14.82	77851	Downward Expansion	-50	23
2026-04-17	862.50	886.95	-16.80	49693	Downward Expansion	-46	19
2026-04-10	877.19	890.19	-15.35	49638	Downward Expansion	-33	15
2026-04-03	872.19	894.93	-15.12	22260	Downward Expansion	-35	16
2026-03-27	879.69	901.51	-10.75	13270	Downward Expansion	-36	17
2026-03-20	862.20	907.68	-12.35	19063	Downward Expansion	-52	25
2026-03-13	882.19	912.67	-13.63	51027	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2026-03-06	869.69	916.91	-15.31	12386	Downward Expansion	-50	25
2026-02-27	869.69	921.99	-20.44	30440	Downward Expansion	-51	27
2026-02-20	872.19	926.90	-18.86	33360	Downward Expansion	-51	27
2026-02-13	877.19	928.64	-16.87	12607	Downward Expansion	-51	29
2026-02-06	867.19	931.46	-17.54	15813	Downward Expansion	-55	31
2026-01-30	872.19	934.79	-16.30	44220	Downward Expansion	-54	31
2026-01-23	874.69	937.12	-15.75	27907	Downward Expansion	-53	30
2026-01-16	879.69	939.61	-16.28	13784	Downward Expansion	-52	29
2026-01-09	879.69	942.10	-15.60	22450	Downward Expansion	-51	29
2026-01-02	887.19	944.51	-13.71	22654	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2025-12-26	882.19	946.09	-13.81	6668	Downward Expansion	-54	30
2025-12-19	889.69	947.66	-13.65	12452	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2025-12-12	884.69	949.49	-12.22	27908	Downward Expansion	-56	36
2025-12-05	897.18	950.82	-11.39	16867	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-11-28	887.19	951.31	-13.15	23362	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2025-11-21	874.69	952.64	-13.08	27872	Rotation Down	-62	38
2025-11-14	897.18	953.47	-12.59	16184	Rotation Down	-30	26
2025-11-07	904.68	954.04	-11.99	31412	Rotation Down	-29	34
2025-10-31	912.18	955.61	-11.91	51410	Rotation Down	-21	40
2025-10-24	902.18	953.68	-12.50	40485	Rotation Down	-24	40
2025-10-17	899.68	953.41	-10.32	18393	Upward Expansion	-25	34
2025-10-10	899.68	953.81	-11.24	17219	Upward Expansion	-24	26
2025-10-03	929.67	953.30	-9.16	20649	Upward Expansion	12	15
2025-09-26	962.16	951.78	-4.13	15588	Upward Expansion	28	14
2025-09-19	959.66	949.19	-3.83	15855	Upward Expansion	36	24
2025-09-12	1,019.64	947.17	1.29	8857	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-09-05	1,069.62	943.74	7.08	5579	Upward Expansion	68	57
2025-08-29	1,064.62	940.06	6.86	25450	Upward Expansion	68	61
2025-08-22	1,011.94	935.63	0.14	25705	Upward Expansion	59	59
2025-08-15	1,009.44	930.87	1.81	13411	Upward Expansion	59	50
2025-08-08	1,021.93	925.78	3.50	11527	Upward Expansion	64	48
2025-08-01	1,016.94	921.03	3.24	67824	Upward Expansion	66	41
2025-07-25	924.49	916.94	-6.80	13013	Upward Expansion	35	18
2025-07-18	961.97	916.09	-1.91	3320	Upward Expansion	54	33
2025-07-11	966.96	913.17	-1.13	11333	Upward Expansion	57	36
2025-07-04	941.98	910.50	-2.62	15113	Upward Expansion	49	30
2025-06-27	949.47	909.82	-1.83	12234	Upward Expansion	51	32
2025-06-20	954.47	909.14	-1.26	14096	Upward Expansion	53	33
2025-06-13	951.97	907.39	-2.55	21263	Balance	53	35
2025-06-06	934.48	905.21	-4.34	16853	Balance	49	30
2025-05-30	929.49	904.78	-4.32	12191	Balance	45	29
2025-05-23	944.48	904.03	-2.36	6863	Balance	52	35
2025-05-16	924.49	903.27	-4.14	4990	Balance	46	24
2025-05-09	912.00	903.17	-4.22	14288	Balance	14	14
2025-05-02	926.99	903.58	-3.36	5923	Balance	17	14
2025-04-25	899.50	903.49	-4.49	5962	Balance	1	3
2025-04-18	914.49	904.81	-1.66	15555	Balance	3	4
2025-04-11	951.68	905.22	5.90	18072	Balance	-6	4
2025-04-04	854.26	904.47	-6.30	38769	Balance	-54	29
2025-03-28	894.23	907.13	-9.17	11578	Balance	-34	15
2025-03-21	911.71	909.21	-7.77	9351	Balance	-30	16
2025-03-14	884.24	910.13	-10.83	2947	Balance	-37	21
2025-03-07	884.24	912.21	-11.84	1261	Balance	-35	17
2025-02-28	884.24	914.21	-13.64	7046	Balance	-23	13
2025-02-21	899.22	917.29	-11.19	16216	Balance	3	11
2025-02-14	916.71	919.70	-10.73	8905	Balance	4	11
2025-02-07	959.17	922.79	-6.72	13064	Downward Expansion	-11	9
2025-01-31	931.69	924.20	-9.40	4633	Downward Expansion	-26	16
2025-01-24	869.25	926.28	-14.07	9138	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-01-17	856.76	930.11	-15.78	20267	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2025-01-10	879.24	934.44	-11.33	3081	Downward Expansion	-53	36
2025-01-03	894.23	936.61	-9.89	1309	Downward Expansion	-48	36
2024-12-27	899.22	938.85	-8.87	1037	Downward Expansion	-49	32
2024-12-20	874.24	941.17	-10.97	8302	Downward Expansion	-59	30
2024-12-13	886.73	943.33	-12.38	6292	Downward Expansion	-54	26
2024-12-06	921.70	947.39	-9.40	4117	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2024-11-29	929.20	950.79	-8.69	1398	Downward Expansion	-48	26
2024-11-22	901.72	954.02	-11.36	5246	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2024-11-15	886.73	959.42	-10.89	11111	Downward Expansion	-62	38
2024-11-08	921.70	965.32	-7.67	2869	Downward Expansion	-52	29
2024-11-01	906.72	971.21	-10.44	13219	Downward Expansion	-57	32
2024-10-25	921.70	976.10	-9.95	4955	Downward Expansion	-54	31
2024-10-18	921.70	981.32	-11.32	12313	Downward Expansion	-54	30
2024-10-11	924.20	986.04	-10.15	5164	Downward Expansion	-55	31
2024-10-04	924.20	990.68	-10.66	7690	Downward Expansion	-55	33
2024-09-27	939.19	994.82	-9.86	5340	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2024-09-20	926.70	998.63	-10.20	5856	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2024-09-13	929.20	1,003.18	-10.58	5010	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2024-09-06	934.19	1,006.49	-9.30	2887	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2024-08-30	956.67	1,008.30	-9.48	11309	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2024-08-23	939.19	1,009.36	-10.83	6049	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2024-08-16	946.68	1,011.59	-10.21	5173	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2024-08-09	944.18	1,013.57	-9.27	8804	Balance	-56	29
2024-08-02	976.66	1,015.54	-6.58	5483	Balance	-36	16
2024-07-26	971.66	1,016.44	-8.55	8049	Balance	-36	16
2024-07-19	1,009.13	1,017.50	-3.80	2844	Balance	-30	17
2024-07-12	1,001.63	1,017.31	-5.68	3778	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2024-07-05	994.14	1,017.62	-5.94	3339	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-06-28	984.15	1,016.93	-6.48	5623	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2024-06-21	986.65	1,016.41	-7.15	11097	Rotation Down	-56	40
2024-06-14	944.18	1,014.48	-10.20	62131	Rotation Down	-38	53
2024-06-07	961.67	1,013.21	-9.73	14892	Rotation Down	-26	44
2024-05-31	968.77	1,011.19	-9.50	15148	Rotation Down	-24	38
2024-05-24	938.81	1,009.35	-12.82	23356	Balance	-33	30
2024-05-17	1,008.72	1,009.10	-7.56	6553	Balance	5	11
2024-05-10	1,023.70	1,006.92	-6.38	165	Upward Expansion	23	14
2024-05-03	1,026.20	1,004.75	-3.67	40333	Upward Expansion	32	18
2024-04-26	1,063.65	1,002.66	0.79	6275	Upward Expansion	50	29
2024-04-19	1,063.65	998.58	4.12	6592	Upward Expansion	53	33
2024-04-12	1,098.33	994.91	6.39	7371	Upward Expansion	64	39
2024-04-05	1,053.40	989.92	3.35	13216	Upward Expansion	56	36
2024-03-29	1,078.36	986.75	5.43	17536	Upward Expansion	63	44
2024-03-22	1,063.39	982.76	4.41	8629	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-03-15	1,063.39	979.26	7.43	35984	Upward Expansion	61	57
2024-03-08	1,048.41	979.58	7.21	3675	Upward Expansion	57	54
2024-03-01	1,053.40	980.24	7.74	694	Upward Expansion	60	51
2024-02-23	1,063.39	980.24	8.89	13341	Balance	65	40
2024-02-09	1,028.44	980.06	7.62	210499	Balance	29	17
2024-02-02	988.50	977.14	3.27	5972	Balance	10	10
2024-01-26	988.50	975.39	3.29	15745	Rotation Up	14	14
2024-01-19	1,005.97	973.80	7.79	21750	Rotation Up	27	21
2024-01-12	1,005.97	971.55	5.77	10082	Rotation Up	28	24
2024-01-05	1,003.48	969.30	4.95	10004	Rotation Up	20	30
2023-12-29	1,003.48	967.05	4.63	2403	Rotation Up	23	42
2023-12-22	1,003.48	965.04	5.36	16933	Rotation Up	24	41
2023-12-15	1,003.48	962.96	7.26	2950	Balance	23	29
2023-12-08	1,010.97	960.37	8.77	76789	Balance	25	25
2023-12-01	973.52	958.37	5.51	753	Downward Expansion	-21	14
2023-11-24	968.53	958.11	5.88	4215	Downward Expansion	-33	21
2023-11-17	928.59	957.86	1.56	6583	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2023-11-10	906.13	957.60	1.14	1326	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2023-11-03	901.13	959.25	-0.09	1693	Balance	-62	51
2023-10-27	913.61	960.40	3.04	25772	Balance	-32	30
2023-10-20	931.09	960.05	3.47	64202	Balance	-19	16
2023-10-13	943.57	959.62	2.22	7654	Balance	-14	11

Price vs TrendBelow-3.2%

Trend directionFalling-3.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-13.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-8.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+5.7%

Price momentumNegative-8.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.75×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-34 / ±100

+28.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

17 /100

-30.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ARBB Directional State ↗ ARBB Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance48

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion12

Deceleration45

Rotation Down30

Downward Expansion58

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 19%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 51%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2025-11-28	2026-10-09	Extended	-9.8%
Rotation Down	2025-10-24	2025-11-21	Developing	-3.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-10-17	Established	-5.7%
Balance	2025-02-14	2025-06-13	Established	+3.8%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-16	2025-02-07	Established	+1.3%
Balance	2024-07-19	2024-08-09	New	-6.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-28	2024-07-12	New	+1.8%
Rotation Down	2024-05-31	2024-06-21	New	+1.8%
Balance	2024-05-17	2024-05-24	New	-6.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-01	2024-05-10	Developing	-2.8%
Balance	2024-02-02	2024-02-23	New	+7.6%
Rotation Up	2023-12-22	2024-01-26	Developing	-1.5%
Balance	2023-12-08	2023-12-15	New	-0.7%
Downward Expansion	2023-11-10	2023-12-01	New	+7.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing69

Stage 2 · Advancing8

Stage 3 · Distribution26

Stage 4 · Declining92

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: -8.47
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -8.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.3%
Financial Services regime cohort: 13th percentile52 in cohort

Test ARBB trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.75×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.75×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ARBB Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 796.67rising

Slow Activity GBP 811.90falling

Trend Reference GBP 826.68-3.2% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 923.25-13.3% close margin

Structural low GBP 755.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +11.5%

From structural high -14.9%

From structural low +6.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	29	-1.0%-15.7% to +21.5%	+20.7%	+75.9%	-2.1%	+82.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-3.6%-6.5% to +20.1%	+27.3%	+72.7%	-6.5%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+0.6%-8.6% to +12.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-5.8%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-0.5%-7.3% to +13.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-8.3%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ARBB Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map