Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

SST Stage Analysis

Steamships Trading Company Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 9.11Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -73−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 81/100directional strength

Maturity 25/100lifecycle context

Confidence 82/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -25.4%AUD 12.21 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	9.11	9.96	-9.49	6029	Downward Expansion	-73	81
2026-10-02	9.06	9.99	-10.03	87	Downward Expansion	-84	69
2026-09-25	8.99	10.02	-10.98	2838	Downward Expansion	-89	67
2026-09-18	9.60	10.04	-6.30	1475	Downward Expansion	-47	40
2026-09-11	9.84	10.07	-4.71	785	Downward Expansion	-52	52
2026-09-04	9.45	10.09	-11.72	0	Downward Expansion	-74	70
2026-08-28	9.45	10.13	-13.22	0	Downward Expansion	-79	74
2026-08-21	9.55	10.15	-12.65	140	Downward Expansion	-67	87
2026-08-14	9.55	10.18	-13.81	1	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2026-08-07	9.54	10.19	-15.89	0	Rotation Down	-75	91
2026-07-31	9.54	10.20	-13.89	0	Rotation Down	-49	82
2026-07-24	9.54	10.21	-12.58	0	Rotation Down	-52	83
2026-07-17	9.53	10.23	-13.70	419	Rotation Down	-55	63
2026-07-10	10.04	10.24	-9.98	1	Rotation Down	-26	45
2026-07-03	10.05	10.24	-10.98	3	Rotation Down	5	28
2026-06-26	10.00	10.25	-11.32	0	Rotation Down	24	39
2026-06-19	11.00	10.26	-3.93	0	Upward Expansion	75	91
2026-06-12	11.00	10.25	-4.33	0	Upward Expansion	82	94
2026-06-05	11.00	10.24	-2.95	0	Upward Expansion	90	96
2026-05-29	11.00	10.24	-4.69	3	Rotation Up	95	98
2026-05-22	10.70	10.26	-6.90	0	Rotation Up	47	82
2026-05-15	10.70	10.29	-7.06	0	Rotation Up	54	82
2026-05-08	10.70	10.33	-8.71	0	Rotation Up	49	56
2026-05-01	10.70	10.36	-9.04	61	Rotation Up	8	23
2026-04-24	10.10	10.40	-15.14	1	Downward Expansion	-48	38
2026-04-17	9.92	10.49	-18.73	1315	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2026-04-10	9.82	10.60	-20.30	4	Downward Expansion	-69	65
2026-04-03	9.82	10.72	-17.47	4	Downward Expansion	-70	68
2026-03-27	9.82	10.85	-17.52	27	Downward Expansion	-70	84
2026-03-20	9.82	10.97	-17.26	189	Downward Expansion	-74	87
2026-03-13	9.92	11.09	-18.84	491	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2026-03-06	9.82	11.21	-22.37	28	Downward Expansion	-85	71
2026-02-27	9.82	11.34	-25.88	66	Downward Expansion	-72	53
2026-02-20	10.31	11.46	-21.76	51	Downward Expansion	-38	35
2026-02-13	10.51	11.60	-19.32	1	Downward Expansion	-41	39
2026-02-06	10.51	11.74	-17.81	144	Downward Expansion	-51	52
2026-01-30	10.31	11.86	-21.19	59	Downward Expansion	-57	62
2026-01-23	10.31	12.00	-21.52	99	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2026-01-16	9.82	12.13	-26.04	0	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2026-01-09	9.82	12.29	-24.93	36	Downward Expansion	-79	93
2026-01-02	9.83	12.44	-25.38	2	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2025-12-26	10.05	12.58	-24.51	0	Downward Expansion	-74	77
2025-12-19	10.05	12.69	-23.73	506	Downward Expansion	-78	72
2025-12-12	10.12	12.79	-24.34	126	Downward Expansion	-81	73
2025-12-05	10.33	12.89	-22.59	367	Downward Expansion	-76	72
2025-11-28	10.12	12.98	-24.40	44	Downward Expansion	-93	78
2025-11-21	10.79	13.08	-17.86	29	Downward Expansion	-82	91
2025-11-14	10.79	13.16	-20.24	21	Downward Expansion	-91	94
2025-11-07	10.80	13.24	-21.74	2326	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2025-10-31	11.75	13.32	-16.39	277	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2025-10-24	11.54	13.37	-19.44	18095	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2025-10-17	11.75	13.43	-18.14	1891	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2025-10-10	11.79	13.48	-17.85	2406	Rotation Down	-96	98
2025-10-03	11.79	13.54	-18.37	2246	Rotation Down	-71	87
2025-09-26	12.96	13.59	-8.64	345	Rotation Down	-55	81
2025-09-19	13.13	13.61	-7.48	690	Rotation Down	-56	81
2025-09-12	13.52	13.61	-5.83	74	Rotation Down	-30	68
2025-09-05	13.50	13.61	-6.18	3	Rotation Down	-34	73
2025-08-29	13.51	13.61	-7.34	608	Deceleration	-27	45
2025-08-22	13.52	13.61	-7.38	2	Deceleration	-18	40
2025-08-15	13.52	13.60	-7.26	0	Deceleration	1	28
2025-08-08	13.52	13.59	-6.06	70	Upward Expansion	17	21
2025-08-01	13.61	13.58	-4.00	43	Upward Expansion	35	45
2025-07-25	14.56	13.57	2.34	109	Upward Expansion	80	72
2025-07-18	14.56	13.53	1.18	596	Upward Expansion	85	74
2025-07-11	14.27	13.49	1.19	37	Upward Expansion	66	88
2025-07-04	14.28	13.45	0.90	2	Upward Expansion	66	88
2025-06-27	14.28	13.42	1.82	3	Upward Expansion	65	88
2025-06-20	14.59	13.40	4.02	42	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-06-13	14.28	13.35	1.36	793	Rotation Up	93	77
2025-06-06	14.28	13.32	1.52	490	Rotation Up	51	54
2025-05-30	13.15	13.30	-5.83	107	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2025-05-23	13.13	13.31	-5.56	0	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2025-05-16	13.13	13.32	-5.84	0	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2025-05-09	13.13	13.33	-5.00	0	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2025-05-02	13.13	13.35	-5.51	281	Downward Expansion	-70	90
2025-04-25	13.13	13.36	-2.85	1	Downward Expansion	-82	94
2025-04-18	13.11	13.36	-1.59	56	Downward Expansion	-92	97
2025-04-11	13.09	13.36	0.23	6	Rotation Down	-93	93
2025-04-04	13.28	13.37	1.37	302	Rotation Down	-43	32
2025-03-28	13.37	13.38	-1.82	2	Balance	2	11
2025-03-21	13.39	13.38	-1.00	3	Rotation Up	8	21
2025-03-14	13.40	13.38	0.93	46	Rotation Up	21	39
2025-03-07	13.40	13.38	-0.91	2	Rotation Up	23	50
2025-02-28	13.41	13.37	-3.40	72	Rotation Up	26	51
2025-02-21	13.41	13.40	-4.78	2	Rotation Up	22	40
2025-02-14	13.41	13.42	-7.65	3	Downward Expansion	-2	33
2025-02-07	13.41	13.43	-7.21	401	Downward Expansion	-12	20
2025-01-31	13.41	13.45	-7.43	2	Downward Expansion	-31	32
2025-01-24	13.41	13.46	-6.07	112	Downward Expansion	-50	53
2025-01-17	13.17	13.46	-6.63	2	Downward Expansion	-95	98
2025-01-10	13.17	13.47	-6.45	191	Downward Expansion	-97	98
2025-01-03	13.31	13.51	-4.91	1	Downward Expansion	-72	90
2024-12-27	13.31	13.54	-5.00	0	Downward Expansion	-74	67
2024-12-20	13.31	13.59	-2.64	0	Downward Expansion	-77	65
2024-12-13	13.31	13.67	-5.24	100	Downward Expansion	-75	61
2024-12-06	13.41	13.74	-5.95	2	Downward Expansion	-52	57
2024-11-29	13.41	13.81	-6.17	202	Downward Expansion	-53	60
2024-11-22	13.31	13.89	-6.46	0	Downward Expansion	-86	73
2024-11-15	13.31	13.97	-5.30	2297	Downward Expansion	-77	76
2024-11-08	13.51	14.01	-4.09	3578	Downward Expansion	-37	60
2024-11-01	13.51	14.00	-2.05	0	Downward Expansion	-38	39
2024-10-25	13.51	13.98	-3.14	0	Downward Expansion	-40	42
2024-10-18	13.51	13.95	-4.03	673	Downward Expansion	-46	41
2024-10-11	13.51	13.93	-3.27	2	Downward Expansion	-51	71
2024-10-04	13.51	13.88	-2.49	259	Downward Expansion	-64	81
2024-09-27	13.24	13.83	-5.16	1556	Downward Expansion	-69	86
2024-09-20	13.14	13.80	-5.84	2337	Downward Expansion	-55	81
2024-09-13	13.38	13.77	-2.84	2	Rotation Down	-36	64
2024-09-06	13.38	13.73	-1.69	2198	Rotation Down	-37	69
2024-08-30	13.38	13.69	-2.49	3	Rotation Down	-40	64
2024-08-23	13.38	13.64	-1.50	0	Deceleration	-32	47
2024-08-16	13.38	13.59	-0.69	123	Deceleration	-16	25
2024-08-09	13.38	13.54	1.95	571	Deceleration	-17	19
2024-08-02	14.10	13.48	5.45	368	Deceleration	19	17
2024-07-26	14.05	13.41	5.60	335	Deceleration	4	16
2024-07-19	13.76	13.33	2.95	183	Deceleration	-0	27
2024-07-12	13.86	13.27	3.98	40	Deceleration	1	29
2024-07-05	13.86	13.20	5.97	2459	Deceleration	4	30
2024-06-28	13.38	13.13	3.30	3063	Deceleration	1	33
2024-06-21	13.38	13.08	3.20	8032	Deceleration	14	37
2024-06-14	14.34	13.02	12.16	68	Upward Expansion	46	44
2024-06-07	14.34	12.93	11.00	138	Upward Expansion	53	59
2024-05-31	14.96	12.84	18.95	303	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-05-24	15.49	12.72	23.82	2	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-05-17	15.49	12.59	23.65	3	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-05-10	15.49	12.46	25.93	9	Upward Expansion	79	92
2024-05-03	15.87	12.33	32.40	300	Upward Expansion	99	100
2024-04-26	15.77	12.18	34.01	1267	Upward Expansion	100	99
2024-04-19	14.39	12.04	23.83	4397	Upward Expansion	99	99
2024-04-12	13.21	11.94	11.55	400	Upward Expansion	95	97
2024-04-05	12.82	11.88	9.29	0	Upward Expansion	92	77
2024-03-29	12.82	11.82	8.28	45	Upward Expansion	96	78
2024-03-22	12.76	11.75	10.15	2147	Upward Expansion	96	77
2024-03-15	12.03	11.69	5.86	0	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-03-08	12.03	11.65	4.00	4188	Upward Expansion	69	69
2024-03-01	12.27	11.62	7.97	0	Upward Expansion	89	96
2024-02-23	12.27	11.60	10.07	0	Upward Expansion	96	96
2024-02-16	12.27	11.59	10.30	200	Upward Expansion	98	79
2024-02-09	12.03	11.58	8.81	800	Upward Expansion	94	78
2024-02-02	12.03	11.56	8.47	5948	Upward Expansion	95	77
2024-01-26	11.81	11.53	8.90	0	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-01-19	11.81	11.49	11.30	1044	Upward Expansion	70	69
2024-01-12	11.80	11.40	10.54	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-01-05	11.80	11.31	11.09	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2023-12-29	11.80	11.22	9.95	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2023-12-22	11.80	11.11	11.56	0	Upward Expansion	74	91
2023-12-15	11.80	11.00	12.80	2150	Upward Expansion	86	95
2023-12-08	11.80	10.89	17.09	1680	Upward Expansion	87	75
2023-12-01	11.84	10.78	20.10	507	Upward Expansion	96	93
2023-11-24	11.61	10.67	18.86	0	Upward Expansion	74	91
2023-11-17	11.61	10.56	19.27	0	Upward Expansion	81	93
2023-11-10	11.61	10.45	21.04	256	Upward Expansion	87	95
2023-11-03	11.53	10.34	20.79	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2023-10-27	11.53	10.23	23.93	0	Upward Expansion	68	89
2023-10-20	11.53	10.12	23.10	0	Upward Expansion	71	89

Price vs TrendBelow-8.6%

Trend directionFalling-2.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-25.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-9.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.5%

Price momentumNegative-7.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.46×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-73 / ±100

-21.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

81 /100

+29.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SST Directional State ↗ SST Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance24

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion18

Deceleration40

Rotation Down73

Downward Expansion92

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 42%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-10-09	Developing	-4.6%
Rotation Down	2026-06-26	2026-08-07	Developing	-4.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-06-19	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-05-01	2026-05-29	Developing	+2.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-17	2026-04-24	Extended	-14.0%
Rotation Down	2025-09-05	2025-10-10	Developing	-12.7%
Deceleration	2025-08-15	2025-08-29	New	-0.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-08-08	Developing	-7.3%
Rotation Up	2025-06-06	2025-06-13	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-05-30	Developing	+0.3%
Rotation Down	2025-04-04	2025-04-11	New	-1.4%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-03-28	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2025-02-21	2025-03-21	Developing	-0.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-20	2025-02-14	Established	+2.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing65

Stage 2 · Advancing6

Stage 3 · Distribution25

Stage 4 · Declining94

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 72/100
Current Relative Strength: -9.49
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -7.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -4.5%
Industrials regime cohort: 92th percentile38 in cohort

Test SST trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume10.24×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.46×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SST Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 9.19falling

Slow Activity AUD 9.77falling

Trend Reference AUD 9.96-8.6% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 12.21-25.4% close margin

Structural low AUD 8.91shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +2.7%

Annualized volatility +21.4%

From structural high -23.0%

From structural low +2.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	26	+0.0%-14.1% to +11.1%	+42.3%	+38.5%	+0.5%	+76.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+0.8%-16.4% to +38.1%	+60.0%	+40.0%	-0.2%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-4.3%-15.6% to +37.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.9%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+21.4%-0.1% to +23.8%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+21.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SST Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map