Ticker Options Intelligence

QUAD options intelligence

Quad Graphics Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 66 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 03:17 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

QUAD currently carries volatility options pressure with a 66/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.63.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 17.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.63

Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 10

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +24.6%

RS 43.7

Expected move 17.3%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.63
Reference IV 0.83
Max pain 7.50
Underlying 10.39
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 48

Research Brief

QUAD has a volatility chain read with 66/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 8.59–12.19; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.

Priced range8.59–12.19
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration7.50
Max pain reference7.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 8.59 to 12.19. Max pain at 7.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
8.5910.39 ± 1.8012.19
Confirmation level

A close beyond 12.19 or below 8.59 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 66/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation55 × 22%
+12.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement10 × 26%
+2.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score66.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-75.9%
0
0
5.00-51.9%
0
76
7.50-27.8%
71
1
10.00-3.8%
285
0
12.5020.3%
1
0
15.0044.4%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.92× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.83 21 Aug 21d
0.58 18 Sep 49d
0.35 16 Oct 77d
0.43 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
48 / 48
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

95/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $55364 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+24.6%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.63 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 10/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 439 contracts traded, $45175 estimated gross traded notional, and 82% of visible notional.
$45175
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 30 contracts traded, $7400 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$7400
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 22 contracts traded, $1885 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$1885
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 42 contracts traded, $814 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$814
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $90 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$90

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close10.39
1W+24.6%
RS43.7
Fair value+86.3%
Options pressure100
Speculation55
Volatility96
Trend fit10

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 17.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.83 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.63 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:29 Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 17.8%
30 Jul 11:14 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 30.9%
30 Jul 15:31 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 34.6%
30 Jul 15:46 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 34.0%
31 Jul 13:04 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.3%
2 Aug 02:17 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 17.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 71
Puts · V 0 · OI 76
Strike10.00
Calls · V 438 · OI 285
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.83
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.58
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.35
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts12
Avg IV0.43
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV1.00
Skew0.61
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.85
Skew0.60
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.06
Skew-0.14
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.77
Skew0.39

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractQUAD260821C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume438
OI285
IV0.82
ContractQUAD261016C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume40
OI1
IV0.20
ContractQUAD270115C00007500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.50
Volume20
OI-
IV0.01
ContractQUAD260918C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume19
OI77
IV0.41
ContractQUAD270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume10
OI18
IV0.42
ContractQUAD261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume3
OI164
IV0.35
ContractQUAD270115C00012500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume2
OI3
IV0.38
ContractQUAD260918C00012500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume2
OI-
IV0.25