Ticker Options Intelligence

QUAD options intelligence

Quad Graphics Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 46 Market data through 16 Sep 2026 Checked 16 Sep 2026 23:04 · partial chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

QUAD currently carries bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.12.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 3.8%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.12

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.35

Call-side skew

Trend fit 46

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -5.6%

RS 31.0

Expected move 3.8%
Put-call volume 0.35
Volume / OI 0.12
Reference IV 3.68
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 10.10
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 29

Research Brief

QUAD has a bullish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.72–10.48; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00.

Priced range9.72–10.48
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 18 Sep

Options imply 9.72 to 10.48. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 1.0% below spot.

Spot Max pain
9.7210.10 ± 0.3810.48
Confirmation level

A close beyond 10.48 or below 9.72 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 46/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 59/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure59 × 42%
+24.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation11 × 22%
+2.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement46 × 26%
+11.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility71 × 10%
+7.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score46.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 15.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-75.2%
0
5
7.50-25.7%
0
10
10.00-1.0%
100
0
12.5023.8%
18
0
15.0048.5%
15
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 95% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$18,700Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak10.00+$13,800
Negative peak5.00-$2
Nearest balance5.02Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-50.5%
-$2
7.50-25.7%
+$257
10.00-1.0%
+$13,800
12.5023.8%
+$4,495
15.0048.5%
+$150
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

6.47× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

3.68 18 Sep 2d
0.67 16 Oct 30d
0.77 15 Jan 121d
0.57 16 Apr 212d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

11 matured · 2 directional

Across 2 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 50% of the time.

Directional follow-through50%
Moves contained by pricing91%
Average expiry move3.3%
14 Aug Volatility · 52 3.7% through expiry 5.3% priced · v2.0
13 Aug Volatility · 53 1.3% through expiry 5.2% priced · v2.0
12 Aug Mixed · 33 1.3% through expiry 6.9% priced · v2.0
10 Aug Volatility · 55 1.3% through expiry 6.9% priced · v2.0
7 Aug Bullish · 44 1.3% through expiry 8.3% priced · v2.0
6 Aug Bullish · 47 -0.8% through expiry 7.5% priced · v2.0
5 Aug Volatility · 59 -0.8% through expiry 11.8% priced · v2.0
4 Aug Volatility · 58 -0.8% through expiry 8.4% priced · v2.0
3 Aug Volatility · 65 -0.8% through expiry 11.1% priced · v2.0
31 Jul Volatility · 66 -0.8% through expiry 17.3% priced · v2.0
30 Jul Volatility · 51 23.6% through expiry 12.3% priced · v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
16 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
29 / 29
  • 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

65/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $9,234 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+59
1W price-5.6%
Call premium82%
Put premium18%
Notional split C 82% / P 18% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.12 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 46/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 40 contracts traded, $2,346 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$2,346
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2,140 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$2,140
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $1,442 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$1,442
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $1,135 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1,135
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1,070 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1,070

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Above normal

79

Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.

Baseline: 21 completed sessions

Volume rank71th
Volume/OI rank71th
IV rank95th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close10.10
1W-5.6%
RS31.0
Fair value+74.6%
Options pressure59
Speculation11
Volatility71
Trend fit46

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 3.8% history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
IV 3.68 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.35 history building
30d avg - · 7/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 20/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 20/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.12 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:29 Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 17.8%
30 Jul 11:14 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 30.9%
30 Jul 15:31 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 34.6%
30 Jul 15:46 Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 34.0%
31 Jul 13:04 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.3%
3 Aug 11:07 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 17.3%
4 Aug 09:46 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.1%
4 Aug 13:37 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 11.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 5
Strike10.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 100
Puts · V 1 · OI 10
Strike12.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 18
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 15
Puts · V 2 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts8
Avg IV3.68
Put-call0.36
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV0.67
Put-call1.09
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts8
Avg IV0.77
Put-call0.67
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts4
Avg IV0.57
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.63
Put IV0.78
Skew-0.84
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.64
Put IV0.61
Skew-0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.56
Skew0.02
16 Apr 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.59
Skew0.06

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractQUAD261016P00012500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI4
IV0.00
ContractQUAD270416C00005000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.54
ContractQUAD270416P00010000
SidePut
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.59
ContractQUAD260918C00002500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.50
Volume-
OI-
IV8.81
ContractQUAD260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI-
IV2.09
ContractQUAD270416C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike12.50
Volume30
OI31
IV0.53
ContractQUAD260918C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike15.00
Volume15
OI15
IV4.43
ContractQUAD261016P00007500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike7.50
Volume10
OI17
IV0.77

Evidence context