Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
PAGS options intelligence
PagSeguro Digital Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
45
Market data through 17 Sep 2026
Checked 18 Sep 2026 13:26 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
PAGS currently carries bearish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
4.9%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.89
Put-side skew
Trend fit
93
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-5.8%
RS -10.2
Expected move
4.9%
Put-call volume
1.89
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
1.41
Max pain
10.00
Underlying
10.12
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
218
Research Brief
PAGS has a bearish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.62–10.62; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00.
Priced range9.62–10.62
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration9.00
Max pain reference10.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 9.62 to 10.62. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 1.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
9.6210.12 ± 0.5010.62
Confirmation level
A close beyond 10.62 or below 9.62 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 45/100
Pressure is 27/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure27 × 42%
+11.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation7 × 22%
+1.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement93 × 26%
+24.1
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility76 × 10%
+7.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
1.00-90.1%
0
0
2.00-80.2%
0
1
3.00-70.4%
2
1
4.00-60.5%
0
1
5.00-50.6%
0
0
6.00-40.7%
0
8
7.00-30.8%
0
608
8.00-20.9%
0
1856
9.00-11.1%
126
932
10.00-1.2%
206
0
11.008.7%
35
0
12.0018.6%
0
0
13.0028.5%
5
0
14.0038.3%
0
0
15.0048.2%
0
0
16.0058.1%
0
0
17.0068.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$199,665Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak11.00+$32,742
Negative peak10.00-$131,072
Nearest balance10.80Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
1.00-90.1%
-$0
3.00-70.4%
-$0
4.00-60.5%
-$5
5.00-50.6%
+$1,718
6.00-40.7%
-$67
7.00-30.8%
-$9,932
8.00-20.9%
-$13,516
9.00-11.1%
-$75,215
10.00-1.2%
-$131,072
11.008.7%
+$32,742
12.0018.6%
+$9,752
13.0028.5%
-$5,639
14.0038.3%
-$12,469
15.0048.2%
+$2,836
16.0058.1%
-$1,101
17.0068.0%
+$655
18.0077.9%
+$3
20.0097.6%
+$1,646
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.41
18 Sep
1d
0.46
16 Oct
29d
0.50
20 Nov
64d
0.49
15 Jan
120d
0.50
19 Feb
155d
0.28
21 May
246d
0.49
21 Jan
491d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
9
10
11
12
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 11 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 27% of the time.
Directional follow-through27%
Moves contained by pricing52%
Average expiry move7.9%
17 Sep
Bearish · 45
-8.5% through expiry
4.9% priced · v2.0
15 Sep
Volatility · 59
-8.5% through expiry
7.4% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Bullish · 30
-8.5% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bullish · 42
-4.8% through expiry
4.4% priced · v2.0
9 Sep
Bullish · 29
-4.8% through expiry
7.7% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Volatility · 49
-4.8% through expiry
7.5% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Mixed · 31
-4.8% through expiry
8.2% priced · v2.0
2 Sep
Bullish · 39
4.2% through expiry
10.7% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Bullish · 56
4.2% through expiry
7.3% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bearish · 54
4.2% through expiry
8.4% priced · v2.0
24 Aug
Volatility · 51
7.4% through expiry
10.2% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Bullish · 35
-4.0% through expiry
8.1% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 17 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 218 / 218
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $41,864 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-27
1W price-5.8%
Call premium56%
Put premium44%
Notional split
C 56% / P 44%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
93/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 30 contracts traded, $14,535 estimated gross traded notional, and 35% of visible notional.
$14,535
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM
puts cluster with 310 contracts traded, $8,508 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$8,508
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 110 contracts traded, $6,325 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$6,325
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 45 contracts traded, $6,285 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$6,285
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $3,220 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$3,220
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 24 completed sessions
Volume rank42th
Volume/OI rank54th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close9.26
1W-5.8%
RS-10.2
Fair value-0.5%
Options pressure-27
Speculation7
Volatility76
Trend fit93
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 7.7% · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.60 · 11 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.78 · 11 sessions
82th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 11 sessions
45th
90d avg - · 24/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 24/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
30 Jul 10:46
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 15.2%
30 Jul 15:04
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 12.0%
30 Jul 15:44
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 12.0%
30 Jul 19:41
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 12.5%
2 Aug 18:38
Mixed
Pressure -6
Move 10.4%
3 Aug 07:20
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 10.4%
3 Aug 14:38
Volatility
Pressure -20
Move 8.8%
5 Aug 10:21
Volatility
Pressure 84
Move 9.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike1.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 608
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV1.41
Put-call0.01
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.46
Put-call5.53
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.50
Put-call5.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts30
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.34
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.50
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.46
Put IV0.76
Skew-0.70
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.50
Skew0.04
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.54
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.50
Skew0.01
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.56
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPAGS261016P00009000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike9.00
Volume309
OI594
IV0.50
ContractPAGS260918C00009000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike9.00
Volume110
OI126
IV0.74
ContractPAGS261016C00010000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume50
OI856
IV0.51
ContractPAGS270219P00010000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike10.00
Volume33
OI186
IV0.47
ContractPAGS270115C00005000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume27
OI161
IV0.62
ContractPAGS270521P00010000
SidePut
Expiry21 May 2027
Strike10.00
Volume12
OI-
IV0.45
ContractPAGS270115P00013000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike13.00
Volume6
OI3614
IV0.54
ContractPAGS261016C00009000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike9.00
Volume5
OI298
IV0.45
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.