Ticker Options Intelligence

PAGS options intelligence

PagSeguro Digital Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 28 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 17:12 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

PAGS currently carries mixed options pressure with a 28/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 10.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.90

Balanced tape

Trend fit 53

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +4.8%

RS -6.6

Expected move 10.4%
Put-call volume 0.90
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.60
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 9.64
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 186

Research Brief

PAGS has a mixed chain read with 28/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 8.64–10.64; The largest call open-interest concentration is 11.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 11.00.

Priced range8.64–10.64
Call concentration11.00
Put concentration9.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 8.64 to 10.64. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 3.7% above spot.

Spot Max pain
8.649.64 ± 1.0010.64
Confirmation level

A close beyond 10.64 or below 8.64 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 28/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 13/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure13 × 42%
+5.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement53 × 26%
+13.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility82 × 10%
+8.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score27.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 11.00; the largest put concentration is 9.00. The most active strike by current volume is 11.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
3.00-68.9%
3
2
4.00-58.5%
1
7
5.00-48.1%
1
26
6.00-37.8%
0
62
7.00-27.4%
697
519
8.00-17.0%
21
1584
9.00-6.6%
676
1542
10.003.7%
627
183
11.0014.1%
3731
1
12.0024.5%
611
807
13.0034.9%
246
1
14.0045.2%
103
0
15.0055.6%
3036
0
16.0066.0%
81
53
17.0076.3%
99
0
18.0086.7%
12
0
20.00107.5%
4
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.51× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.60 21 Aug 21d
0.47 18 Sep 49d
0.46 20 Nov 112d
0.54 15 Jan 168d
0.54 19 Feb 203d
0.40 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

8
9
10
11
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
186 / 186
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

88/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $9270 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+13
1W price+4.8%
Call premium17%
Put premium83%
Notional split C 17% / P 83% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 53/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 12 Aug Matched earnings event is 10 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 106 contracts traded, $7420 estimated gross traded notional, and 80% of visible notional.
$7420
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $657 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$657
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 117 contracts traded, $610 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$610
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $275 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$275
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 6 contracts traded, $180 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$180

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close9.64
1W+4.8%
RS-6.6
Fair value+4.0%
Options pressure13
Speculation1
Volatility82
Trend fit53

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.60 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.90 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:56 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.8%
30 Jul 10:46 Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 15.2%
30 Jul 15:04 Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 12.0%
30 Jul 15:44 Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 12.0%
30 Jul 19:41 Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 12.5%
1 Aug 16:12 Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 10.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 26
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 697
Puts · V 0 · OI 62
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 21
Puts · V 0 · OI 519
Strike9.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 676
Puts · V 6 · OI 1584

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.60
Put-call0.95
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.47
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.46
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts30
Avg IV0.54
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.54
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.64
Skew0.16
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.59
Skew0.21
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.61
Skew0.15
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.68
Skew0.23
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.61
Skew0.14

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPAGS260821C00011000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike11.00
Volume116
OI3731
IV0.30
ContractPAGS260821P00010000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume106
OI1542
IV0.55
ContractPAGS260821P00009000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume6
OI1584
IV0.64
ContractPAGS280121C00012000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike12.00
Volume2
OI118
IV0.56
ContractPAGS280121C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike15.00
Volume2
OI39
IV0.45
ContractPAGS270115C00013000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike13.00
Volume2
OI17
IV0.20
ContractPAGS280121C00007000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike7.00
Volume1
OI702
IV0.01
ContractPAGS260821C00009000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike9.00
Volume1
OI676
IV0.39