Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
ALK options intelligence
Alaska Air Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 05:06 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
ALK currently carries bullish options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
10.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.40
Call-side skew
Trend fit
15
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.9%
RS -9.4
Expected move
10.7%
Put-call volume
0.40
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.57
Max pain
45.00
Underlying
47.45
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
448
Research Brief
ALK has a bullish chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 42.38–52.52; The largest call open-interest concentration is 60.00; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 52.50.
Priced range42.38–52.52
Call concentration60.00
Put concentration45.00
Max pain reference45.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 42.38 to 52.52. Max pain at 45.00 sits inside that range, 5.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
42.3847.45 ± 5.0752.52
Confirmation level
A close beyond 52.52 or below 42.38 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 50/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure50 × 42%
+20.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement15 × 26%
+3.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility80 × 10%
+8.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 60.00; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 52.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
79
30.00-36.8%
23
114
32.50-31.5%
16
366
35.00-26.2%
72
398
37.50-21.0%
28
929
40.00-15.7%
38
798
42.50-10.4%
67
2438
45.00-5.2%
194
154
47.500.1%
783
128
50.005.4%
729
47
52.5010.6%
950
37
55.0015.9%
1335
19
57.5021.2%
305
0
60.0026.4%
3117
0
65.0037.0%
1311
0
70.0047.5%
46
0
75.0058.1%
78
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.57
21 Aug
21d
0.56
18 Sep
49d
0.57
16 Oct
77d
0.59
18 Dec
140d
0.57
15 Jan
168d
0.58
19 Feb
203d
0.58
19 Mar
231d
0.59
21 May
294d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
40
43
45
48
50
53
55
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 448 / 448
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $123952 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+50
1W price+2.9%
Call premium88%
Put premium12%
Notional split
C 88% / P 12%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
15/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 152 contracts traded, $39980 estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$39980
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 49 contracts traded, $36425 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$36425
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 37 contracts traded, $16615 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$16615
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 116 contracts traded, $11640 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$11640
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 56 contracts traded, $4215 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$4215
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close47.45
1W+2.9%
RS-9.4
Fair value+2.1%
Options pressure50
Speculation8
Volatility80
Trend fit15
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:39
Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 13.6%
30 Jul 10:35
Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 11.6%
30 Jul 14:59
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 12.0%
30 Jul 15:29
Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 11.9%
30 Jul 19:48
Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 11.7%
3 Aug 04:06
Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 10.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike30.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 23
Puts · V 0 · OI 79
Strike32.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 16
Puts · V 0 · OI 114
Strike35.00
Calls · V 17 · OI 72
Puts · V 3 · OI 366
Strike37.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 28
Puts · V 13 · OI 398
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 38
Puts · V 7 · OI 929
Strike42.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 67
Puts · V 14 · OI 798
Strike45.00
Calls · V 30 · OI 194
Puts · V 19 · OI 2438
Strike47.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 783
Puts · V 7 · OI 154
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.57
Put-call0.38
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.56
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.57
Put-call0.40
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.59
Put-call1.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts64
Avg IV0.57
Put-call0.38
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.58
Skew0.02
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.55
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.58
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.59
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.57
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractALK261016C00052500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike52.50
Volume110
OI2063
IV0.56
ContractALK260821C00052500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike52.50
Volume70
OI950
IV0.56
ContractALK261016P00032500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike32.50
Volume49
OI758
IV0.61
ContractALK260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume32
OI729
IV0.56
ContractALK260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume30
OI194
IV0.60
ContractALK260821P00045000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume19
OI2438
IV0.56
ContractALK260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume17
OI72
IV0.58
ContractALK260821P00042500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike42.50
Volume14
OI798
IV0.58
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.