Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
ALK options intelligence
Alaska Air Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
40
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 17 Sep 2026 13:00 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
ALK currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
3.3%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.48
Call-side skew
Trend fit
28
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.1%
RS -18.2
Expected move
3.3%
Put-call volume
0.48
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.73
Max pain
42.50
Underlying
41.16
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
480
Research Brief
ALK has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 39.79–42.53; The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00.
Priced range39.79–42.53
Call concentration50.00
Put concentration40.00
Max pain reference42.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 39.79 to 42.53. Max pain at 42.50 sits inside that range, 3.3% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
39.7941.16 ± 1.3742.53
Confirmation level
A close beyond 42.53 or below 39.79 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 40/100
Pressure is 41/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure41 × 42%
+17.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement28 × 26%
+7.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility64 × 10%
+6.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 50.00; the largest put concentration is 40.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
232
20.00-51.4%
36
169
25.00-39.3%
47
898
30.00-27.1%
408
407
32.50-21.0%
122
1913
35.00-15.0%
410
1104
37.50-8.9%
209
2695
40.00-2.8%
1398
1782
42.503.3%
1324
774
45.009.3%
2940
279
47.5015.4%
775
8
50.0021.5%
6272
2
52.5027.6%
2753
0
55.0033.6%
3800
0
57.5039.7%
318
0
60.0045.8%
871
0
62.5051.8%
417
0
65.0057.9%
1081
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$119,584Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak45.00+$345,081
Negative peak37.50-$453,386
Nearest balance42.96Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
20.00-51.4%
-$347
22.50-45.3%
-$1,214
25.00-39.3%
-$17,406
27.50-33.2%
-$7,300
30.00-27.1%
-$35,826
32.50-21.0%
-$147,504
35.00-15.0%
-$238,866
37.50-8.9%
-$453,386
40.00-2.8%
-$444,607
42.503.3%
-$78,599
45.009.3%
+$345,081
47.5015.4%
+$130,208
50.0021.5%
+$329,180
52.5027.6%
+$103,400
55.0033.6%
+$57,247
57.5039.7%
+$23,571
60.0045.8%
+$141,364
62.5051.8%
+$7,216
65.0057.9%
+$121,140
67.5064.0%
+$1,634
70.0070.1%
+$22,118
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.73
18 Sep
2d
0.54
16 Oct
30d
0.53
18 Dec
93d
0.52
15 Jan
121d
0.52
19 Feb
156d
0.52
19 Mar
184d
0.52
16 Apr
212d
0.52
21 May
247d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
35
38
40
43
45
48
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 8 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 0% of the time.
Directional follow-through0%
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move16.4%
17 Aug
Mixed · 34
-12.1% through expiry
4.4% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Bullish · 32
-19.1% through expiry
8.3% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Bullish · 32
-19.1% through expiry
6.7% priced · v2.0
12 Aug
Bullish · 35
-19.1% through expiry
6.9% priced · v2.0
11 Aug
Bullish · 33
-19.1% through expiry
6.3% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Mixed · 28
-19.1% through expiry
8.0% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Bullish · 43
-19.1% through expiry
7.9% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Bullish · 38
-14.8% through expiry
10.0% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Volatility · 49
-14.8% through expiry
13.0% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bullish · 36
-14.8% through expiry
13.8% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Mixed · 39
-14.8% through expiry
11.4% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bullish · 35
-14.8% through expiry
10.7% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 480 / 480
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $451,488 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+41
1W price-2.1%
Call premium73%
Put premium27%
Notional split
C 73% / P 27%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
28/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1245 contracts traded, $239,628 estimated gross traded notional, and 53% of visible notional.
$239,628
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 203 contracts traded, $58,698 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$58,698
Puts · 0-7 days · OTM
puts cluster with 437 contracts traded, $32,704 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$32,704
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 40 contracts traded, $30,765 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$30,765
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 35 contracts traded, $20,075 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$20,075
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 22 completed sessions
Volume rank36th
Volume/OI rank32th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close41.16
1W-2.1%
RS-18.2
Fair value-11.5%
Options pressure41
Speculation41
Volatility64
Trend fit28
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 22/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 22/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
30 Jul 10:35
Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 11.6%
30 Jul 14:59
Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 12.0%
30 Jul 15:29
Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 11.9%
30 Jul 19:48
Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 11.7%
3 Aug 07:53
Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 10.7%
4 Aug 09:15
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 11.4%
5 Aug 12:11
Bullish
Pressure 41
Move 13.8%
5 Aug 13:40
Bullish
Pressure 18
Move 13.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 36
Puts · V 0 · OI 232
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 45
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 47
Puts · V 0 · OI 169
Strike27.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 208
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 408
Puts · V 0 · OI 898
Strike32.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 122
Puts · V 10 · OI 407
Strike35.00
Calls · V 71 · OI 410
Puts · V 43 · OI 1913
Strike37.50
Calls · V 121 · OI 209
Puts · V 26 · OI 1104
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.73
Put-call1.87
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.54
Put-call2.87
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.08
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts64
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.29
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts38
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.36
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.67
Skew0.21
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.55
Skew0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.54
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.52
Skew0.02
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.52
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractALK261218C00047500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike47.50
Volume1007
OI145
IV0.51
ContractALK260918P00040000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume358
OI2695
IV0.62
ContractALK260918C00037500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike37.50
Volume121
OI209
IV0.01
ContractALK260918C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume71
OI410
IV0.80
ContractALK261218C00042500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike42.50
Volume45
OI2172
IV0.51
ContractALK260918P00035000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume43
OI1913
IV0.77
ContractALK261218C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike45.00
Volume42
OI1714
IV0.51
ContractALK261016P00037500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike37.50
Volume39
OI1771
IV0.55
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
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Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.