- No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
ALK
NYSE
Week ended 11 Sep 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Alaska Air Group Inc · Industrials · Airlines
Latest close
41.16 USD
-2.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -6.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 26.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.1%, after a -10.4% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 40/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 48/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 33d.
Setup score
19
out of 100
Latest Close
41.16 USD
11 Sep 2026
1W Return
-2.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
-10.4%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-16.4%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
5.8%
3 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-2.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move -10.4%.
Indicator stack
3/11
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Options pressure
Bullish
40/100 conviction; expected move 3.3%.
News sentiment
48/100
44 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
33d
Next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -6.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 26.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.1%, after a -10.4% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3912-week average 0.42
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership1/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.39Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -10.4% over four weeks, -16.4% over 12 weeks, and -35.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year3
Trend breadth5.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.72Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-323.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-18.19Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-26.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 11 Sep 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026
Field coverage 91%
Model confidence 91%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength38/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
Value70/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 31; rank 1 is best.
Quality25/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Momentum9/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 92; rank 1 is best.
Growth70/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 31; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework7/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.3x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.5x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -3.1% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 94.6% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -1.5% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- -2.4% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -1.6% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 9.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -285.2% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 6.2% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 6.2% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 8.5x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
ALK shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.48, expected move of 3.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction40/100
Expected move3.3%
Put/call volume0.48
Insider activity14 / 1
14 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment48/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 44 relevant articles.
14 positive · 26 neutral · 4 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings33dNext report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move3.3%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-35.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
20 Mar
17 Apr
15 May
12 Jun
10 Jul
7 Aug
11 Sep
Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+14.9%Week of 17 Apr.
Worst week-12.1%Week of 21 Aug.
Latest week-2.1%Week of 11 Sep.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains10
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses8
Recent vol6.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/29Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.2% / -5.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Industrials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-7.1%
Trend breadth49.0%
Trend49.0%active weekly trend signals
MD37.0%positive activity pressure
RS29.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Airlines
4-week rank6 / 17
Group average-12.3%
Trend breadth23.5%
Trend23.5%active weekly trend signals
MD5.9%positive activity pressure
RS11.8%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape19/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 19/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis33/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 1/12.
Activity pressure 0.39; No reversal markers Factors35/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 8; Small Cap Core rank 11 SVQF7/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 938.0 of 1007 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options49/100ALK shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.48, expected move of 3.3%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 3.3% Sentiment48/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 44 relevant articles.
Earnings Forecast Cuts Might Change The Case For Investing In Alaska Air Group (ALK) Insiders14 / 114 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings33dNext report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Research flow1 items0 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2026 | 41.16 USD | -2.1% | 43.99 USD | 46.52 USD | -0.72 | -18.19 | 9.5M | Off |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 42.04 USD | -0.7% | 44.46 USD | 46.51 USD | -0.50 | -18.13 | 10.0M | Off |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 42.32 USD | 4.7% | 45.04 USD | 46.49 USD | -0.17 | -18.53 | 11.3M | Off |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 40.41 USD | -12.1% | 45.33 USD | 46.49 USD | 0.07 | -22.79 | 13.6M | Off |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 45.96 USD | -8.0% | 45.68 USD | 46.50 USD | 0.32 | -14.36 | 10.4M | Off |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 49.96 USD | 5.3% | 45.81 USD | 46.48 USD | 0.40 | -7.33 | 11.5M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 47.45 USD | 2.9% | 45.81 USD | 46.45 USD | 0.46 | -9.36 | 13.5M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 46.13 USD | 1.4% | 45.95 USD | 46.45 USD | 0.57 | -11.40 | 21.3M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 45.51 USD | -7.9% | 46.13 USD | 46.46 USD | 0.67 | -13.58 | 14.4M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 49.42 USD | -3.3% | 46.34 USD | 46.52 USD | 0.79 | -8.22 | 15.5M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 51.09 USD | -5.1% | 46.41 USD | 46.54 USD | 0.82 | -4.33 | 13.0M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 53.86 USD | 9.3% | 46.36 USD | 46.55 USD | 0.67 | 2.66 | 16.5M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 49.26 USD | 4.1% | 45.99 USD | 46.55 USD | 0.43 | -8.52 | 14.3M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 47.32 USD | 10.5% | 45.67 USD | 46.55 USD | 0.14 | -11.63 | 18.6M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.