Ticker Options Intelligence

STX options intelligence

Seagate Technology PLC options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 38 Market data through 18 Sep 2026 Checked 18 Sep 2026 20:20 ยท partial chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

STX currently carries mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.21.

Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 3.3%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.21

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.94

Balanced tape

Trend fit 89

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +3.4%

RS 45.9

Expected move 3.3%
Put-call volume 0.94
Volume / OI 0.21
Reference IV 0.46
Max pain 755.00
Underlying 830.17
Nearest expiry 18 Sep 2026
Contracts 1131

Research Brief

STX has a mixed chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 802.92โ€“857.42; The largest call open-interest concentration is 1,150.00; the largest put concentration is 500.00. The most active strike by current volume is 850.00.

Priced range802.92โ€“857.42
Call concentration1150.00
Put concentration500.00
Max pain reference755.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction ยท through 18 Sep

Options imply 802.92 to 857.42. Max pain at 755.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
802.92830.17 ยฑ 27.25857.42
Confirmation level

A close beyond 857.42 or below 802.92 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 38/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 0/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure0 ร— 42%
+0.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation45 ร— 22%
+9.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement89 ร— 26%
+23.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility45 ร— 10%
+4.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score37.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 1,150.00; the largest put concentration is 500.00. The most active strike by current volume is 850.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
6037
500.00-39.8%
385
1891
540.00-35.0%
110
733
600.00-27.7%
800
932
650.00-21.7%
171
952
700.00-15.7%
136
857
720.00-13.3%
251
1097
740.00-10.9%
63
1107
750.00-9.7%
105
2312
780.00-6.0%
609
612
800.00-3.6%
516
349
820.00-1.2%
262
247
840.001.2%
348
335
850.002.4%
845
968
860.003.6%
337
6
900.008.4%
929
21
1000.0020.5%
1050
0
1150.0038.5%
1603
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Balanced gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks ยท 98% coverage

Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.

Net profile-$10.0MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak850.00+$4.5M
Negative peak860.00-$3.5M
Nearest balance830.26Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
780.00-6.0%
-$2.4M
785.00-5.4%
+$546,285
790.00-4.8%
-$407,054
795.00-4.2%
-$179,696
800.00-3.6%
-$1.2M
805.00-3.0%
-$562,630
810.00-2.4%
-$2.5M
815.00-1.8%
-$166,122
820.00-1.2%
-$1.9M
825.00-0.6%
-$56,791
830.000.0%
-$112,522
835.000.6%
+$2.0M
840.001.2%
+$165,791
845.001.8%
-$390,868
850.002.4%
+$4.5M
855.003.0%
+$250,977
860.003.6%
-$3.5M
865.004.2%
+$319,714
870.004.8%
-$677,728
875.005.4%
+$167,612
880.006.0%
-$612,641
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma ร— open interest ร— 100 shares ร— spotยฒ ร— 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.72ร— front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.46 18 Sep 0d
0.62 25 Sep 7d
0.64 2 Oct 14d
0.64 9 Oct 21d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

670
700
708
718
728
735
745
760
775
795
810
830
850
865
885
905
920
940
960
975
995
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

32 matured ยท 9 directional

Across 9 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 67% of the time.

Directional follow-through67%
Moves contained by pricing66%
Average expiry move7.2%
18 Sep Mixed ยท 38 3.4% through expiry 3.3% priced ยท v2.0
17 Sep Mixed ยท 40 3.4% through expiry 4.3% priced ยท v2.0
16 Sep Bullish ยท 48 3.4% through expiry 6.1% priced ยท v2.0
15 Sep Volatility ยท 50 3.4% through expiry 8.6% priced ยท v2.0
14 Sep Mixed ยท 41 3.4% through expiry 7.0% priced ยท v2.0
11 Sep Mixed ยท 37 -2.3% through expiry 2.1% priced ยท v2.0
10 Sep Mixed ยท 40 -2.3% through expiry 3.8% priced ยท v2.0
9 Sep Volatility ยท 46 -2.3% through expiry 5.9% priced ยท v2.0
4 Sep Mixed ยท 43 -2.3% through expiry 7.0% priced ยท v2.0
2 Sep Volatility ยท 50 2.4% through expiry 4.9% priced ยท v2.0
28 Aug Mixed ยท 40 2.4% through expiry 6.6% priced ยท v2.0
27 Aug Mixed ยท 39 -2.4% through expiry 3.3% priced ยท v2.0

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Good

B79/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility99%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Retained chain subset
Market date
18 Sep 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
1131 / 1131
  • 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

73/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $41.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls ยท 0-7 days ยท itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+0
1W price+3.4%
Call premium75%
Put premium25%
Notional split C 75% / P 25% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume ร— contract multiplier ร— midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.21 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 89/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls ยท 0-7 days ยท ITM
Calls ยท 0-7 days ยท ITM calls cluster with 886 contracts traded, $19.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$19.1M
Puts ยท 0-7 days ยท ITM puts cluster with 551 contracts traded, $6.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$6.2M
Calls ยท 0-7 days ยท ATM calls cluster with 1948 contracts traded, $4.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$4.8M
Calls ยท 0-7 days ยท OTM calls cluster with 5446 contracts traded, $3.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$3.5M
Calls ยท 8-21 days ยท ITM calls cluster with 212 contracts traded, $2.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$2.4M

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Activity Anomaly

Normal range

42

Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.

Baseline: 33 completed sessions

Volume rank55th
Volume/OI rank67th
IV rank6th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close858.79
1W+3.4%
RS45.9
Fair value+245.3%
Options pressure0
Speculation45
Volatility45
Trend fit89

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 3.3% muted
30d avg 6.7% ยท 17 sessions 12th
90d avg 7.8% ยท 33 sessions 6th
180d avg - ยท 33/60 sessions -
IV 0.46 muted
30d avg 0.65 ยท 17 sessions 12th
90d avg 0.84 ยท 33 sessions 6th
180d avg - ยท 33/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.94 near normal
30d avg 1.09 ยท 17 sessions 35th
90d avg 1.21 ยท 33 sessions 27th
180d avg - ยท 33/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.21 near normal
30d avg 0.18 ยท 17 sessions 71th
90d avg 0.20 ยท 33 sessions 67th
180d avg - ยท 33/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
10 Sep 15:01 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 4.3%
10 Sep 16:30 Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 3.3%
10 Sep 18:00 Mixed
Pressure -14
Move 3.3%
10 Sep 19:30 Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 3.8%
11 Sep 14:20 Bearish
Pressure -25
Move 3.4%
11 Sep 16:00 Mixed
Pressure -17
Move 2.7%
11 Sep 17:30 Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 2.8%
11 Sep 19:03 Mixed
Pressure -16
Move 2.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike80.00
Calls ยท V 1 ยท OI 27
Puts ยท V 34 ยท OI 26
Strike85.00
Calls ยท V 1 ยท OI 2
Puts ยท V 2 ยท OI 2
Strike90.00
Calls ยท V 1 ยท OI 2
Puts ยท V 45 ยท OI 88
Strike95.00
Calls ยท V 2 ยท OI 16
Puts ยท V 3 ยท OI 35
Strike100.00
Calls ยท V 6 ยท OI 22
Puts ยท V 93 ยท OI 136
Strike105.00
Calls ยท V 3 ยท OI 28
Puts ยท V 2 ยท OI 25
Strike110.00
Calls ยท V 1 ยท OI 10
Puts ยท V 50 ยท OI 58
Strike115.00
Calls ยท V 1 ยท OI 1
Puts ยท V 30 ยท OI 35

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts417
Avg IV0.46
Put-call1.00
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Contracts273
Avg IV0.62
Put-call0.76
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Contracts255
Avg IV0.64
Put-call1.12
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Contracts186
Avg IV0.64
Put-call1.34

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.56
Skew0.21
25 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.61
Skew0.01
2 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.65
Skew-0.01
9 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.64
Skew0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractSTX260918P01160000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1160.00
Volume-
OI-
IV3.94
ContractSTX261002P01420000
SidePut
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike1420.00
Volume-
OI-
IV1.51
ContractSTX260918P01520000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1520.00
Volume-
OI-
IV6.31
ContractSTX260925P01410000
SidePut
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Strike1410.00
Volume-
OI-
IV2.03
ContractSTX261009C01270000
SideCall
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Strike1270.00
Volume-
OI53
IV0.85
ContractSTX260918C01175000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1175.00
Volume-
OI48
IV3.74
ContractSTX261009P00610000
SidePut
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Strike610.00
Volume-
OI46
IV0.81
ContractSTX260918C01015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1015.00
Volume-
OI42
IV1.11

Evidence context