Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CRGY options intelligence
Crescent Energy Co options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
49
Market data through 18 Sep 2026
Checked 21 Sep 2026 02:43 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CRGY currently carries volatility options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
10.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.06
Call-side skew
Trend fit
3
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-5.2%
RS 20.1
Expected move
10.3%
Put-call volume
0.06
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.46
Max pain
12.50
Underlying
13.90
Nearest expiry
16 Oct 2026
Contracts
246
Research Brief
CRGY has a volatility chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.48–15.32; The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00.
Priced range12.48–15.32
Call concentration16.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference12.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 12.48 to 15.32. Max pain at 12.50 sits inside that range, 10.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
12.4813.90 ± 1.4215.32
Confirmation level
A close beyond 15.32 or below 12.48 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 49/100
Pressure is 96/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure96 × 42%
+40.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation4 × 22%
+1.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement3 × 26%
+0.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility72 × 10%
+7.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 16.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-82.0%
0
8
5.00-64.0%
0
0
6.00-56.8%
0
1317
7.50-46.0%
70
60
9.00-35.3%
2
3295
10.00-28.1%
954
131
11.00-20.9%
533
3081
12.50-10.1%
1475
255
14.000.7%
714
727
15.007.9%
3018
272
16.0015.1%
5666
6
17.5025.9%
1140
1
19.0036.7%
0
0
20.0043.9%
243
0
22.5061.9%
16
0
25.0079.9%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$717,453Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak15.00+$302,474
Negative peak10.00-$15,688
Nearest balance13.27Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-82.0%
+$1
5.00-64.0%
-$200
6.00-56.8%
-$3
7.50-46.0%
+$3,001
9.00-35.3%
-$62
10.00-28.1%
-$15,688
11.00-20.9%
-$2,715
12.00-13.7%
+$75
12.50-10.1%
+$73,116
13.00-6.5%
-$12,887
14.000.7%
+$35,718
15.007.9%
+$302,474
16.0015.1%
+$169,427
17.0022.3%
+$110
17.5025.9%
+$110,486
18.0029.5%
+$313
19.0036.7%
+$12
20.0043.9%
+$48,928
21.0051.1%
+$20
22.5061.9%
+$804
25.0079.9%
+$4,522
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.46
16 Oct
28d
0.50
20 Nov
63d
0.48
18 Dec
91d
0.49
15 Jan
119d
0.49
16 Apr
210d
0.55
21 Jan
490d
0.57
16 Jun
637d
0.55
15 Dec
819d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
13
14
15
16
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 10 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 80% of the time.
Directional follow-through80%
Moves contained by pricing43%
Average expiry move13.3%
17 Sep
Bullish · 51
-5.2% through expiry
6.3% priced · v2.0
16 Sep
Volatility · 46
-5.2% through expiry
5.3% priced · v2.0
14 Sep
Mixed · 38
-5.2% through expiry
7.8% priced · v2.0
10 Sep
Bullish · 53
0.9% through expiry
5.8% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Bullish · 47
0.9% through expiry
6.7% priced · v2.0
3 Sep
Bullish · 49
2.7% through expiry
7.2% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Bullish · 43
2.7% through expiry
7.6% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bullish · 35
-1.1% through expiry
8.5% priced · v2.0
21 Aug
Volatility · 46
-1.1% through expiry
10.0% priced · v2.0
20 Aug
Volatility · 46
15.2% through expiry
6.2% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Mixed · 39
15.2% through expiry
5.9% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Bullish · 43
21.5% through expiry
9.6% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 18 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 246 / 246
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $82,235 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+96
1W price-5.2%
Call premium91%
Put premium9%
Notional split
C 91% / P 9%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
3/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 91 contracts traded, $48,245 estimated gross traded notional, and 59% of visible notional.
$48,245
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 986 contracts traded, $15,930 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$15,930
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $4,955 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$4,955
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 28 contracts traded, $2,982 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$2,982
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 33 contracts traded, $2,392 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$2,392
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 23 completed sessions
Volume rank35th
Volume/OI rank35th
IV rank26th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close13.90
1W-5.2%
RS20.1
Fair value+30.7%
Options pressure96
Speculation4
Volatility72
Trend fit3
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 7.1% · 10 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.55 · 10 sessions
50th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.33 · 10 sessions
20th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.04 · 10 sessions
40th
90d avg - · 23/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 23/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
30 Jul 10:40
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.2%
31 Jul 13:04
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.8%
31 Jul 15:35
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 12.9%
31 Jul 16:58
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 12.9%
1 Aug 10:53
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 13.1%
2 Aug 22:28
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.9%
4 Aug 10:45
Volatility
Pressure 94
Move 12.0%
5 Aug 11:15
Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 9.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 70
Puts · V 0 · OI 1317
Strike9.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 60
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 954
Puts · V 0 · OI 3295
Strike11.00
Calls · V 14 · OI 533
Puts · V 0 · OI 131
Strike12.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 1475
Puts · V 0 · OI 3081
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.03
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.50
Put-call3.13
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.27
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts32
Avg IV0.49
Put-call0.03
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Contracts36
Avg IV0.49
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.49
Skew0.05
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.51
Skew0.06
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.54
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.48
Skew0.03
16 Apr 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.50
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCRGY261016C00016000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike16.00
Volume910
OI5666
IV0.47
ContractCRGY280121C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike10.00
Volume80
OI584
IV0.48
ContractCRGY261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume76
OI3018
IV0.44
ContractCRGY261016P00014000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike14.00
Volume33
OI255
IV0.45
ContractCRGY270115C00015000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume18
OI3622
IV0.47
ContractCRGY261120P00013000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike13.00
Volume15
OI-
IV0.50
ContractCRGY261016C00011000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike11.00
Volume14
OI533
IV0.45
ContractCRGY261218C00016000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike16.00
Volume13
OI442
IV0.46
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.