Ticker Options Intelligence

HPQ options intelligence

HP Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 45 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 18:20 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

HPQ currently carries volatility options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.06.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 6.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.06

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.58

Put-side skew

Trend fit 71

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +5.9%

RS 9.1

Expected move 6.6%
Put-call volume 1.58
Volume / OI 0.06
Reference IV 0.71
Max pain 27.50
Underlying 25.75
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 581

Research Brief

HPQ has a volatility chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 24.06–27.44; The largest call open-interest concentration is 28.00; the largest put concentration is 24.50. The most active strike by current volume is 24.50.

Priced range24.06–27.44
Call concentration28.00
Put concentration24.50
Max pain reference27.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 24.06 to 27.44. Max pain at 27.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
24.0625.75 ± 1.6927.44
Confirmation level

A close beyond 27.44 or below 24.06 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 45/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 24/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure24 × 42%
+9.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement71 × 26%
+18.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility76 × 10%
+7.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 28.00; the largest put concentration is 24.50. The most active strike by current volume is 24.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
290
21.50-16.5%
12
338
22.50-12.6%
30
121
23.00-10.7%
175
87
23.50-8.7%
115
250
24.00-6.8%
665
3134
24.50-4.9%
237
203
25.00-2.9%
492
152
25.50-1.0%
388
143
26.001.0%
596
176
26.502.9%
215
2388
27.004.9%
721
3069
27.506.8%
669
1958
28.008.7%
922
399
28.5010.7%
775
10
29.0012.6%
265
1
29.5014.6%
243
0
30.5018.4%
235
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.41× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.71 31 Jul 0d
0.50 7 Aug 7d
0.50 14 Aug 14d
0.50 21 Aug 21d
0.70 28 Aug 28d
0.60 4 Sep 35d
0.54 18 Sep 49d
0.52 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

21
22
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
30
31
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
581 / 581
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

83/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.1M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-24
1W price+5.9%
Call premium75%
Put premium25%
Notional split C 75% / P 25% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.06 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 71/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 5079 contracts traded, $1.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 42% of visible notional.
$1.8M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 963 contracts traded, $792361 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$792361
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 656 contracts traded, $250009 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$250009
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM puts cluster with 1310 contracts traded, $217489 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$217489
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 1955 contracts traded, $189230 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$189230

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close27.27
1W+5.9%
RS9.1
Fair value+3.3%
Options pressure-24
Speculation41
Volatility76
Trend fit71

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.71 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.58 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.06 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:16 Volatility
Pressure -53
Move 11.2%
30 Jul 10:12 Volatility
Pressure -64
Move 11.5%
31 Jul 06:38 Bearish
Pressure -32
Move 11.5%
31 Jul 13:08 Bearish
Pressure -50
Move 5.5%
31 Jul 17:20 Volatility
Pressure -24
Move 6.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 65
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike17.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 21
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike18.00
Calls · V 17 · OI 9
Puts · V 1 · OI 39
Strike19.00
Calls · V 19 · OI 10
Puts · V 2 · OI 15
Strike20.00
Calls · V 14 · OI 9
Puts · V 11 · OI 58
Strike20.50
Calls · V 29 · OI 8
Puts · V 15 · OI 135
Strike21.00
Calls · V 17 · OI 13
Puts · V 1 · OI 72
Strike21.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 12
Puts · V 5 · OI 290

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.71
Put-call10.72
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts49
Avg IV0.50
Put-call1.15
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.50
Put-call5.11
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts69
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.47
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts35
Avg IV0.70
Put-call7.47

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV2.04
Skew1.60
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.47
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.49
Skew0.04
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.50
Skew0.01
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.86
Skew0.24

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractHPQ261016P00021000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike21.00
Volume-
OI46
IV0.61
ContractHPQ270617C00013000
SideCall
Expiry17 Jun 2027
Strike13.00
Volume-
OI10
IV1.02
ContractHPQ270319P00037000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike37.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.78
ContractHPQ260821P00035000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI9
IV1.09
ContractHPQ260904C00025500
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike25.50
Volume-
OI5
IV0.56
ContractHPQ260904P00027500
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike27.50
Volume-
OI3
IV0.53
ContractHPQ260807C00018000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume-
OI2
IV2.37
ContractHPQ260807P00030500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike30.50
Volume-
OI2
IV1.04