Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
HPQ options intelligence
HP Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
43
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 16 Sep 2026 15:17 · partial chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
HPQ currently carries bearish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
5.6%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.42
Put-side skew
Trend fit
62
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+9.7%
RS 39.2
Expected move
5.6%
Put-call volume
1.42
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.50
Max pain
31.00
Underlying
35.48
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
236
Research Brief
HPQ has a bearish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 33.48–37.48; The largest call open-interest concentration is 32.00; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 37.00.
Priced range33.48–37.48
Call concentration32.00
Put concentration20.00
Max pain reference31.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 33.48 to 37.48. Max pain at 31.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
33.4835.48 ± 2.0037.48
Confirmation level
A close beyond 37.48 or below 33.48 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 43/100
Pressure is 29/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure29 × 42%
+12.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement62 × 26%
+16.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility58 × 10%
+5.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 32.00; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 37.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5030
15.00-57.7%
46
10048
17.00-52.1%
67
5385
19.00-46.4%
46
14865
20.00-43.6%
24
6032
21.00-40.8%
2
12421
23.00-35.2%
22
5338
25.00-29.5%
27
5653
26.00-26.7%
179
7403
27.00-23.9%
736
11674
28.00-21.1%
33
7703
29.00-18.3%
2439
9656
30.00-15.4%
4989
6109
32.00-9.8%
7403
507
33.00-7.0%
2783
1639
35.00-1.4%
3108
6
37.004.3%
3508
0
40.0012.7%
4169
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$4.1MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak35.00+$1.0M
Negative peak26.50-$28,679
Nearest balance28.05Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
29.00-18.3%
+$59,402
29.50-16.9%
+$5,659
30.00-15.4%
+$164,688
30.50-14.0%
+$22,874
31.00-12.6%
+$105,362
31.50-11.2%
+$81,681
32.00-9.8%
+$486,419
32.50-8.4%
+$26,432
33.00-7.0%
+$421,757
33.50-5.6%
+$25,521
34.00-4.2%
+$220,532
34.50-2.8%
+$98,953
35.00-1.4%
+$1.0M
35.500.1%
+$161,776
36.001.5%
+$218,502
36.502.9%
+$9,493
37.004.3%
+$756,902
38.007.1%
+$9,391
39.009.9%
+$25,769
40.0012.7%
+$246,981
42.0018.4%
+$20,644
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.50
18 Sep
2d
0.50
25 Sep
9d
0.53
2 Oct
16d
0.52
9 Oct
23d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
29
29
30
30
31
31
32
32
33
33
34
34
35
35
36
36
37
38
39
40
42
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 14 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 71% of the time.
Directional follow-through71%
Moves contained by pricing52%
Average expiry move4.6%
10 Sep
Bearish · 45
8.7% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Mixed · 43
8.7% through expiry
5.8% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bullish · 49
8.7% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
3 Sep
Bearish · 48
6.0% through expiry
4.9% priced · v2.0
2 Sep
Bullish · 47
6.0% through expiry
6.3% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Bullish · 47
6.0% through expiry
4.8% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Bullish · 45
6.0% through expiry
5.1% priced · v2.0
26 Aug
Volatility · 57
1.8% through expiry
9.4% priced · v2.0
25 Aug
Volatility · 56
1.8% through expiry
8.9% priced · v2.0
24 Aug
Volatility · 52
1.8% through expiry
10.0% priced · v2.0
21 Aug
Mixed · 40
-2.2% through expiry
0.8% priced · v2.0
20 Aug
Mixed · 42
-2.2% through expiry
2.6% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Good
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 236 / 236
- 100% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $582,110 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-29
1W price+9.7%
Call premium82%
Put premium18%
Notional split
C 82% / P 18%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
62/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 371 contracts traded, $267,832 estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$267,832
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 182 contracts traded, $135,953 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$135,953
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1224 contracts traded, $75,922 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$75,922
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 69 contracts traded, $44,160 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$44,160
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 363 contracts traded, $22,204 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$22,204
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Activity Anomaly
Quiet tape
Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 31 completed sessions
Volume rank0th
Volume/OI rank0th
IV rank32th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close35.48
1W+9.7%
RS39.2
Fair value+33.6%
Options pressure-29
Speculation40
Volatility58
Trend fit62
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 5.2% · 17 sessions
59th
90d avg 5.5% · 31 sessions
68th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.67 · 17 sessions
35th
90d avg 0.62 · 31 sessions
32th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.53 · 17 sessions
59th
90d avg 1.94 · 31 sessions
48th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.08 · 17 sessions
0th
90d avg 2.17 · 31 sessions
0th
180d avg - · 31/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
11 Aug 09:26
Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 4.6%
11 Aug 15:39
Bearish
Pressure -39
Move 4.6%
13 Aug 10:05
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 4.0%
13 Aug 16:01
Bearish
Pressure -25
Move 2.9%
14 Aug 09:52
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 4.7%
15 Aug 07:50
Bearish
Pressure -74
Move 4.9%
18 Aug 12:21
Bearish
Pressure -53
Move 4.5%
19 Aug 11:02
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 3.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike10.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 6
Puts · V 1 · OI 240
Strike13.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 15
Puts · V 3 · OI 187
Strike14.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 6
Puts · V 1 · OI 541
Strike15.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 46
Puts · V 3 · OI 5030
Strike16.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 25
Puts · V 2 · OI 1506
Strike17.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 67
Puts · V 4 · OI 10048
Strike18.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 31
Puts · V 1 · OI 2379
Strike19.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 46
Puts · V 1 · OI 5385
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.50
Put-call1.12
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.50
Put-call1.15
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.53
Put-call3.49
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.52
Put-call1.65
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.22
25 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.17
2 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.47
Skew-0.11
9 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.51
Skew-0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractHPQ261002C00015000
SideCall
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI-
IV3.39
ContractHPQ261009P00037000
SidePut
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Strike37.00
Volume-
OI1166
IV0.54
ContractHPQ261009P00035000
SidePut
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI566
IV0.44
ContractHPQ260918P00038000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike38.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.79
ContractHPQ261009P00034500
SidePut
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Strike34.50
Volume-
OI9
IV0.53
ContractHPQ261002P00031500
SidePut
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike31.50
Volume-
OI7
IV0.54
ContractHPQ261009P00024000
SidePut
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Strike24.00
Volume-
OI5
IV1.10
ContractHPQ261009P00031500
SidePut
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Strike31.50
Volume-
OI4
IV0.53
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.