Ticker Options Intelligence

PFSI options intelligence

PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 56 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 15:52 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

PFSI currently carries bearish options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 6.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 2.68

Put-side skew

Trend fit 99

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -10.6%

RS -34.8

Expected move 6.6%
Put-call volume 2.68
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 0.38
Max pain 90.00
Underlying 75.41
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 274

Research Brief

PFSI has a bearish chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 70.43–80.39; The largest call open-interest concentration is 105.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00.

Priced range70.43–80.39
Call concentration105.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference90.00
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 70.43 to 80.39. Max pain at 90.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
70.4375.41 ± 4.9880.39
Confirmation level

A close beyond 80.39 or below 70.43 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 56/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 39/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure39 × 42%
+16.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement99 × 26%
+25.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility53 × 10%
+5.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score56.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 105.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
45
75.00-0.5%
24
1039
80.006.1%
232
1026
85.0012.7%
1560
364
90.0019.3%
2192
1014
95.0026.0%
568
852
100.0032.6%
970
43
105.0039.2%
2198
0
110.0045.9%
134
0
115.0052.5%
343
1
120.0059.1%
64
0
125.0065.8%
2099
0
130.0072.4%
348
0
135.0079.0%
721
0
140.0085.7%
1284
0
150.0098.9%
771
0
155.00105.5%
89
0
165.00118.8%
400
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.00× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.38 21 Aug 21d
0.34 18 Sep 49d
0.37 20 Nov 112d
0.37 18 Dec 140d
0.36 15 Jan 168d
0.37 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

65
70
75
80
85
90
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
274 / 274
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

78/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $965962 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-39
1W price-10.6%
Call premium22%
Put premium78%
Notional split C 22% / P 78% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 99/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 400 contracts traded, $386000 estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$386000
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 405 contracts traded, $367910 estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$367910
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 284 contracts traded, $208740 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$208740
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1855 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$1855
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $1210 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$1210

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Bearish pressure under fair value

Put pressure is building after the stock has already moved below fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close75.41
1W-10.6%
RS-34.8
Fair value-21.3%
Options pressure-39
Speculation41
Volatility53
Trend fit99

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.38 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 2.68 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:42 Volatility
Pressure -29
Move 10.1%
30 Jul 10:39 Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 9.3%
31 Jul 10:25 Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 11.6%
31 Jul 15:35 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 12.0%
31 Jul 16:39 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 12.1%
31 Jul 16:58 Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 12.1%
1 Aug 14:52 Bearish
Pressure -39
Move 6.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 24
Puts · V 0 · OI 45
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 232
Puts · V 0 · OI 1039

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.38
Put-call33.33
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.37
Put-call0.33
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.37
Put-call1.43
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts36
Avg IV0.36
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.02
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.41
Skew0.06
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.43
Skew0.07
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.41
Skew0.01
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.41
Skew0.07

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPFSI260821P00085000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume400
OI1026
IV0.35
ContractPFSI261218P00080000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike80.00
Volume400
OI278
IV0.38
ContractPFSI261218C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike75.00
Volume284
OI5
IV0.36
ContractPFSI260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume10
OI970
IV0.43
ContractPFSI261218P00085000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike85.00
Volume4
OI1302
IV0.40
ContractPFSI261120C00085000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike85.00
Volume3
OI87
IV0.36
ContractPFSI260821C00085000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume2
OI1560
IV0.34
ContractPFSI261120P00080000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike80.00
Volume1
OI362
IV0.38