Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
PFSI options intelligence
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
69
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 17 Sep 2026 12:07 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
PFSI currently carries volatility options pressure with a 69/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
17.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
29.98
Put-side skew
Trend fit
51
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-4.0%
RS -37.0
Expected move
17.1%
Put-call volume
29.98
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.92
Max pain
65.00
Underlying
70.36
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
276
Research Brief
PFSI has a volatility chain read with 69/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 58.34–82.38; The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 75.00. The most active strike by current volume is 75.00.
Priced range58.34–82.38
Call concentration75.00
Put concentration75.00
Max pain reference65.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 58.34 to 82.38. Max pain at 65.00 sits inside that range, 7.6% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
58.3470.36 ± 12.0282.38
Confirmation level
A close beyond 82.38 or below 58.34 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 69/100
Pressure is 88/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure88 × 42%
+37.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement51 × 26%
+13.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 75.00. The most active strike by current volume is 75.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
45.00-36.0%
0
0
50.00-28.9%
0
0
55.00-21.8%
0
0
60.00-14.7%
0
1
65.00-7.6%
700
12
70.00-0.5%
2
45
75.006.6%
1039
1
80.0013.7%
168
0
85.0020.8%
7
0
90.0027.9%
2
0
95.0035.0%
431
0
100.0042.1%
0
0
105.0049.2%
0
0
110.0056.3%
0
0
115.0063.4%
0
0
120.0070.6%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$121,885Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak65.00+$424,993
Negative peak80.00-$223,566
Nearest balance69.42Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
45.00-36.0%
-$303
50.00-28.9%
+$91
55.00-21.8%
-$249
60.00-14.7%
-$1,586
65.00-7.6%
+$424,993
70.00-0.5%
-$55,950
75.006.6%
-$134,234
80.0013.7%
-$223,566
85.0020.8%
-$116,224
90.0027.9%
-$34,528
95.0035.0%
+$7,023
100.0042.1%
-$3,144
105.0049.2%
+$6,729
110.0056.3%
+$2,361
115.0063.4%
+$1,493
120.0070.6%
+$1,320
125.0077.7%
+$530
130.0084.8%
+$33
135.0091.9%
+$4
140.0099.0%
+$36
145.00106.1%
+$200
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.92
18 Sep
2d
0.37
16 Oct
30d
0.37
20 Nov
65d
0.37
18 Dec
93d
0.35
15 Jan
121d
0.36
19 Feb
156d
0.36
17 Dec
457d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
60
65
70
75
80
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 10 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 60% of the time.
Directional follow-through60%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move2.7%
19 Aug
Bearish · 63
-3.8% through expiry
5.1% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Bullish · 30
-3.8% through expiry
4.8% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Bullish · 39
-3.0% through expiry
6.6% priced · v2.0
12 Aug
Bearish · 51
-3.0% through expiry
4.6% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Bearish · 57
-3.0% through expiry
5.0% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Bearish · 57
-3.0% through expiry
5.7% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Bullish · 34
-0.4% through expiry
6.0% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Mixed · 31
-0.4% through expiry
6.1% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Mixed · 28
-0.4% through expiry
6.5% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bearish · 59
-0.4% through expiry
6.5% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bearish · 56
-0.4% through expiry
6.6% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 38
-11.0% through expiry
11.6% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 276 / 276
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.0M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-88
1W price-4.0%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split
C 0% / P 100%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
51/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 401 contracts traded, $449,140 estimated gross traded notional, and 43% of visible notional.
$449,140
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 702 contracts traded, $370,820 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$370,820
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 321 contracts traded, $216,675 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$216,675
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $2,400 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$2,400
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $2,050 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$2,050
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
High anomaly
Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 21 completed sessions
Volume rank86th
Volume/OI rank86th
IV rank100th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close70.36
1W-4.0%
RS-37.0
Fair value-26.7%
Options pressure-88
Speculation42
Volatility96
Trend fit51
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 21/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 21/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:42
Volatility
Pressure -29
Move 10.1%
30 Jul 10:39
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 9.3%
31 Jul 10:25
Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 11.6%
31 Jul 15:35
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 12.0%
31 Jul 16:39
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 12.1%
31 Jul 16:58
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 12.1%
3 Aug 09:38
Bearish
Pressure -39
Move 6.6%
3 Aug 19:51
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 6.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 700
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 5 · OI 12
Strike75.00
Calls · V 26 · OI 1039
Puts · V 0 · OI 45
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 168
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.92
Put-call0.19
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.37
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.37
Put-call6.00
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.37
Put-call21.05
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts40
Avg IV0.35
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.72
Put IV0.11
Skew-0.60
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.34
Skew0.16
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.45
Skew0.09
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.02
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.38
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPFSI271217P00055000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike55.00
Volume500
OI-
IV0.41
ContractPFSI261218P00070000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike70.00
Volume321
OI231
IV0.36
ContractPFSI270219P00075000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike75.00
Volume301
OI100
IV0.37
ContractPFSI270115P00065000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike65.00
Volume200
OI210
IV0.41
ContractPFSI261218P00075000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike75.00
Volume100
OI1015
IV0.39
ContractPFSI260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume26
OI1039
IV0.72
ContractPFSI261218C00100000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike100.00
Volume20
OI673
IV0.29
ContractPFSI260918P00070000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume5
OI12
IV1.11
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.