Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
IBKR options intelligence
Interactive Brokers Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
39
Market data through 17 Sep 2026
Checked 18 Sep 2026 11:44 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
IBKR currently carries mixed options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
3.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.00
Balanced tape
Trend fit
89
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-0.7%
RS 6.1
Expected move
3.1%
Put-call volume
1.00
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
0.53
Max pain
85.00
Underlying
91.37
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
984
Research Brief
IBKR has a mixed chain read with 39/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 88.49–94.25; The largest call open-interest concentration is 125.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00.
Priced range88.49–94.25
Call concentration125.00
Put concentration85.00
Max pain reference85.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 88.49 to 94.25. Max pain at 85.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
88.4991.37 ± 2.8894.25
Confirmation level
A close beyond 94.25 or below 88.49 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 39/100
Pressure is 5/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure5 × 42%
+2.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement89 × 26%
+23.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility50 × 10%
+5.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 125.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 80.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1204
50.00-45.3%
138
875
55.00-39.8%
40
558
65.00-28.9%
427
853
70.00-23.4%
617
1483
75.00-17.9%
240
968
80.00-12.4%
1821
1702
85.00-7.0%
508
620
88.00-3.7%
114
1068
90.00-1.5%
1404
123
93.001.8%
359
314
95.004.0%
1389
33
100.009.4%
1356
0
105.0014.9%
6226
0
110.0020.4%
959
0
115.0025.9%
2688
0
125.0036.8%
6635
0
130.0042.3%
792
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$737,007Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak90.00+$1.7M
Negative peak88.00-$944,219
Nearest balance91.47Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
82.00-10.3%
-$35,386
82.50-9.7%
-$49,986
83.00-9.2%
-$50,560
84.00-8.1%
-$103,506
85.00-7.0%
-$661,654
86.00-5.9%
-$222,893
87.00-4.8%
-$809,929
88.00-3.7%
-$944,219
89.00-2.6%
-$125,696
90.00-1.5%
+$1.7M
91.00-0.4%
+$46,854
92.000.7%
-$53,181
93.001.8%
-$13,106
94.002.9%
-$8,053
95.004.0%
+$1.0M
96.005.1%
+$28,471
97.006.2%
+$15,349
98.007.3%
+$46,505
99.008.4%
+$5,915
100.009.4%
+$409,928
101.0010.5%
+$3,551
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.53
18 Sep
1d
0.34
25 Sep
8d
0.36
2 Oct
15d
0.38
9 Oct
22d
0.36
16 Oct
29d
0.39
23 Oct
36d
0.39
30 Oct
43d
0.41
20 Nov
64d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
75
79
80
82
83
85
87
88
90
91
93
95
96
98
99
101
103
104
106
107
109
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 16 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 62% of the time.
Directional follow-through63%
Moves contained by pricing86%
Average expiry move2.1%
17 Sep
Mixed · 39
-0.7% through expiry
3.1% priced · v2.0
15 Sep
Bullish · 44
-0.7% through expiry
3.6% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Mixed · 39
-0.7% through expiry
3.9% priced · v2.0
9 Sep
Bullish · 43
-1.3% through expiry
3.4% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Mixed · 35
-1.3% through expiry
4.2% priced · v2.0
2 Sep
Mixed · 44
-3.4% through expiry
7.4% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Mixed · 43
-3.4% through expiry
6.5% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Mixed · 41
2.0% through expiry
2.5% priced · v2.0
27 Aug
Mixed · 42
2.0% through expiry
3.0% priced · v2.0
25 Aug
Bullish · 49
2.0% through expiry
5.6% priced · v2.0
24 Aug
Bullish · 42
2.0% through expiry
3.1% priced · v2.0
21 Aug
Bullish · 43
2.0% through expiry
3.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 17 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 984 / 984
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+5
1W price-0.7%
Call premium64%
Put premium36%
Notional split
C 64% / P 36%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
89/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 665 contracts traded, $600,705 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$600,705
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 392 contracts traded, $310,420 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$310,420
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 84 contracts traded, $250,560 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$250,560
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 60 contracts traded, $206,700 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$206,700
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 97 contracts traded, $205,560 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$205,560
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 29 completed sessions
Volume rank66th
Volume/OI rank48th
IV rank69th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close90.69
1W-0.7%
RS6.1
Fair value+77.6%
Options pressure5
Speculation41
Volatility50
Trend fit89
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.0% · 14 sessions
36th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.46 · 14 sessions
79th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.98 · 14 sessions
79th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.04 · 14 sessions
57th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
5 Aug 10:01
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 3.6%
6 Aug 00:00
Mixed
Pressure -13
Move 3.8%
7 Aug 03:31
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 3.2%
8 Aug 00:13
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 2.4%
10 Aug 11:26
Bullish
Pressure 44
Move 2.4%
11 Aug 10:26
Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 5.0%
12 Aug 10:25
Bullish
Pressure 34
Move 3.5%
13 Aug 10:04
Bearish
Pressure -28
Move 5.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 164
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 32
Puts · V 0 · OI 51
Strike45.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 60
Puts · V 0 · OI 313
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 138
Puts · V 0 · OI 1204
Strike55.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 40
Puts · V 0 · OI 875
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 78
Puts · V 0 · OI 537
Strike65.00
Calls · V 40 · OI 427
Puts · V 0 · OI 558
Strike70.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 617
Puts · V 0 · OI 853
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.85
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.67
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.36
Put-call1.96
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.13
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV0.36
Put-call2.33
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.43
Skew0.08
25 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.35
Skew0.03
2 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.52
Skew0.14
9 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.35
Skew-0.06
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.36
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractIBKR260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume514
OI1821
IV0.01
ContractIBKR261002P00084000
SidePut
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike84.00
Volume510
OI148
IV0.45
ContractIBKR261016P00090000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike90.00
Volume342
OI429
IV0.37
ContractIBKR260918C00093000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike93.00
Volume270
OI359
IV0.44
ContractIBKR260918P00090000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume267
OI1068
IV0.35
ContractIBKR270319P00065000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike65.00
Volume253
OI157
IV0.41
ContractIBKR270319C00130000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike130.00
Volume250
OI10
IV0.41
ContractIBKR261002C00093000
SideCall
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Strike93.00
Volume234
OI23
IV0.39
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.