Ticker Options Intelligence

TROW options intelligence

T. Rowe Price Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 43 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 16:21 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

TROW currently carries bearish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.17.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 5.5%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.17

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 3.13

Put-side skew

Trend fit 55

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -4.1%

RS 1.7

Expected move 5.5%
Put-call volume 3.13
Volume / OI 0.17
Reference IV 0.29
Max pain 120.00
Underlying 111.75
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 368

Research Brief

TROW has a bearish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 105.60–117.90; The largest call open-interest concentration is 115.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 120.00.

Priced range105.60–117.90
Call concentration115.00
Put concentration105.00
Max pain reference120.00
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 105.60 to 117.90. Max pain at 120.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
105.60111.75 ± 6.15117.90
Confirmation level

A close beyond 117.90 or below 105.60 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 43/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 52/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure52 × 42%
+21.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation14 × 22%
+3.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement55 × 26%
+14.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility42 × 10%
+4.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score43.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 115.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 120.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
55.00-50.8%
0
0
60.00-46.3%
0
0
65.00-41.8%
0
1
80.00-28.4%
0
12
90.00-19.5%
0
47
95.00-15.0%
0
350
100.00-10.5%
19
2889
105.00-6.0%
59
317
110.00-1.6%
79
1097
115.002.9%
929
2163
120.007.4%
622
4
125.0011.9%
351
0
130.0016.3%
590
0
135.0020.8%
40
0
140.0025.3%
31
0
145.0029.8%
5
0
165.0047.7%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

0.99× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.29 21 Aug 21d
0.29 18 Sep 49d
0.28 16 Oct 77d
0.29 18 Dec 140d
0.28 15 Jan 168d
0.30 19 Mar 231d
0.29 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
368 / 368
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

77/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.0M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-52
1W price-4.1%
Call premium12%
Put premium88%
Notional split C 12% / P 88% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.17 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 55/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 7 Aug Matched earnings event is 6 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 3527 contracts traded, $2.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 83% of visible notional.
$2.5M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 857 contracts traded, $178402 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$178402
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 184 contracts traded, $93690 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$93690
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 854 contracts traded, $65435 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$65435
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 263 contracts traded, $30910 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$30910

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close111.75
1W-4.1%
RS1.7
Fair value+13.8%
Options pressure-52
Speculation14
Volatility42
Trend fit55

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.29 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 3.13 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.17 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:17 Bearish
Pressure -83
Move 8.3%
30 Jul 10:13 Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 7.4%
31 Jul 06:44 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 7.9%
31 Jul 19:56 Bearish
Pressure -40
Move 5.2%
1 Aug 15:21 Bearish
Pressure -52
Move 5.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.29
Put-call9.89
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.29
Put-call1.85
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.02
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.54
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts60
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.14

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.30
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.33
Skew0.08
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.29
Skew0.05
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.33
Skew0.07
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.33
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTROW260821P00120000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike120.00
Volume2108
OI2163
IV0.25
ContractTROW260821P00115000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike115.00
Volume1415
OI1097
IV0.28
ContractTROW260821P00105000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume839
OI2889
IV0.30
ContractTROW261016C00120000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike120.00
Volume704
OI1178
IV0.24
ContractTROW260821C00125000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike125.00
Volume299
OI351
IV0.33
ContractTROW260918P00100000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume170
OI161
IV0.32
ContractTROW260821C00120000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike120.00
Volume103
OI622
IV0.30
ContractTROW260918C00130000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike130.00
Volume77
OI273
IV0.26