Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
TROW options intelligence
T. Rowe Price Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
36
Market data through 17 Sep 2026
Checked 18 Sep 2026 10:47 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
TROW currently carries mixed options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
2.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.99
Balanced tape
Trend fit
89
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-3.2%
RS -5.3
Expected move
2.5%
Put-call volume
0.99
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.41
Max pain
105.00
Underlying
106.29
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
496
Research Brief
TROW has a mixed chain read with 36/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 103.63–108.95; The largest call open-interest concentration is 120.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 105.00.
Priced range103.63–108.95
Call concentration120.00
Put concentration105.00
Max pain reference105.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 103.63 to 108.95. Max pain at 105.00 sits inside that range, 1.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
103.63106.29 ± 2.66108.95
Confirmation level
A close beyond 108.95 or below 103.63 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 36/100
Pressure is 2/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure2 × 42%
+0.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation35 × 22%
+7.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement89 × 26%
+23.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility39 × 10%
+3.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 120.00; the largest put concentration is 105.00. The most active strike by current volume is 105.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
32
50.00-53.0%
0
20
55.00-48.3%
0
18
65.00-38.8%
0
76
75.00-29.4%
0
756
80.00-24.7%
0
119
85.00-20.0%
0
194
90.00-15.3%
0
367
95.00-10.6%
2
602
100.00-5.9%
5
1845
105.00-1.2%
693
271
110.003.5%
1190
9
115.008.2%
670
0
120.0012.9%
1455
0
125.0017.6%
187
0
130.0022.3%
296
0
135.0027.0%
136
0
140.0031.7%
27
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$1.3MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak115.00+$575,859
Negative peak105.00-$1.9M
Nearest balance109.19Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
55.00-48.3%
-$976
60.00-43.6%
-$1,555
65.00-38.8%
-$3,986
70.00-34.1%
-$33,686
75.00-29.4%
-$98,779
80.00-24.7%
-$58,749
85.00-20.0%
-$271,116
90.00-15.3%
-$111,121
95.00-10.6%
-$94,977
100.00-5.9%
-$332,082
105.00-1.2%
-$1.9M
110.003.5%
+$367,826
115.008.2%
+$575,859
120.0012.9%
+$345,521
125.0017.6%
+$153,254
130.0022.3%
+$109,301
135.0027.0%
+$26,229
140.0031.7%
+$2,861
145.0036.4%
+$13,107
150.0041.1%
+$2,916
155.0045.8%
+$2,889
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.41
18 Sep
1d
0.26
16 Oct
29d
0.26
20 Nov
64d
0.26
18 Dec
92d
0.26
15 Jan
120d
0.28
19 Mar
183d
0.27
16 Apr
211d
0.27
17 Sep
365d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 10 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 70% of the time.
Directional follow-through70%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move1.2%
20 Aug
Bullish · 31
0.9% through expiry
1.9% priced · v2.0
19 Aug
Bearish · 43
0.9% through expiry
2.8% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Mixed · 34
0.9% through expiry
2.4% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Mixed · 40
0.9% through expiry
2.9% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Mixed · 32
0.9% through expiry
2.0% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Bearish · 41
-2.2% through expiry
4.4% priced · v2.0
12 Aug
Bearish · 52
-2.2% through expiry
4.1% priced · v2.0
11 Aug
Mixed · 34
-2.2% through expiry
3.4% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Bullish · 49
-2.2% through expiry
3.7% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Bearish · 44
-0.2% through expiry
5.4% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Bearish · 44
-0.2% through expiry
5.5% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bearish · 55
-0.2% through expiry
6.2% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 17 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 496 / 496
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $168,626 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · atm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+2
1W price-3.2%
Call premium69%
Put premium31%
Notional split
C 69% / P 31%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
89/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 52 contracts traded, $53,605 estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$53,605
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 21 contracts traded, $30,910 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$30,910
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 98 contracts traded, $18,620 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$18,620
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM
puts cluster with 58 contracts traded, $14,645 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$14,645
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $12,125 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$12,125
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 27 completed sessions
Volume rank37th
Volume/OI rank37th
IV rank93th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close106.29
1W-3.2%
RS-5.3
Fair value+7.6%
Options pressure2
Speculation35
Volatility39
Trend fit89
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 3.7% · 12 sessions
17th
90d avg - · 27/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 27/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.31 · 12 sessions
92th
90d avg - · 27/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 27/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.59 · 12 sessions
67th
90d avg - · 27/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 27/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.02 · 12 sessions
50th
90d avg - · 27/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 27/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
31 Jul 06:44
Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 7.9%
31 Jul 19:56
Bearish
Pressure -40
Move 5.2%
3 Aug 08:26
Bearish
Pressure -52
Move 5.5%
3 Aug 22:45
Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 5.7%
4 Aug 07:30
Mixed
Pressure 6
Move 5.7%
5 Aug 11:23
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 6.8%
6 Aug 10:16
Bearish
Pressure -82
Move 6.2%
6 Aug 20:43
Bearish
Pressure -21
Move 5.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 32
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 20
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 18
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 76
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 756
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 8 · OI 119
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.41
Put-call65.00
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.29
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.26
Put-call6.50
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.26
Put-call2.73
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts60
Avg IV0.26
Put-call0.95
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.26
Skew-0.29
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.23
Skew0.03
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.28
Skew0.03
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.34
Skew0.10
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.28
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTROW261016C00105000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike105.00
Volume98
OI337
IV0.23
ContractTROW260918P00105000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike105.00
Volume58
OI1845
IV0.52
ContractTROW260918P00100000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume54
OI602
IV0.26
ContractTROW270917C00105000
SideCall
Expiry17 Sep 2027
Strike105.00
Volume48
OI11
IV0.24
ContractTROW261016C00110000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike110.00
Volume25
OI349
IV0.20
ContractTROW261120P00100000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike100.00
Volume25
OI-
IV0.22
ContractTROW261218P00105000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike105.00
Volume19
OI303
IV0.26
ContractTROW261016P00105000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike105.00
Volume18
OI523
IV0.20
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Plain English Guide
Options context
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Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.