Ticker Options Intelligence

RLI options intelligence

RLI Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 46 Market data through 10 Aug 2026 Checked 11 Aug 2026 13:20 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

RLI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 4.7%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 7

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +4.9%

RS -0.9

Expected move 4.7%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.22
Max pain 55.00
Underlying 64.23
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 128

Research Brief

RLI has a bullish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 61.20–67.26; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00.

Priced range61.20–67.26
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration60.00
Max pain reference55.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 61.20 to 67.26. Max pain at 55.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
61.2064.23 ± 3.0367.26
Confirmation level

A close beyond 67.26 or below 61.20 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 46/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 88/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure88 × 42%
+37.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation16 × 22%
+3.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement7 × 26%
+1.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility34 × 10%
+3.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
30.00-53.3%
0
0
35.00-45.5%
0
0
40.00-37.7%
0
0
45.00-29.9%
0
0
50.00-22.2%
0
0
55.00-14.4%
5
3
60.00-6.6%
2
0
65.001.2%
4
0
70.009.0%
0
0
75.0016.8%
1
0
80.0024.6%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Negative gamma proxy

Reported + model-estimated Greeks · 86% coverage

Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile-$77,886Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak58.00+$1,893
Negative peak63.00-$54,939
Nearest balance64.96Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
30.00-53.3%
-$15
38.00-40.8%
-$56
43.00-33.1%
+$68
48.00-25.3%
-$186
53.00-17.5%
-$27,606
55.00-14.4%
+$34
58.00-9.7%
+$1,893
60.00-6.6%
-$1,818
63.00-1.9%
-$54,939
65.001.2%
+$1,040
68.005.9%
+$1,378
70.009.0%
+$1,748
73.0013.7%
+$552
75.0016.8%
+$21
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.84× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.22 21 Aug 11d
0.28 18 Sep 39d
0.26 18 Dec 130d
0.26 19 Mar 221d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

55
60
65
70
75
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
10 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
128 / 128
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Call activity against legacy put OI

62/100
Primary intent Call activity against legacy put OI

Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $5,475 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · atm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+88
1W price+4.9%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 7/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ATM
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 12 contracts traded, $4,650 estimated gross traded notional, and 85% of visible notional.
$4,650
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $825 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$825

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

8 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 8 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close64.23
1W+4.9%
RS-0.9
Fair value+1.6%
Options pressure88
Speculation16
Volatility34
Trend fit7

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 4.7% history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions -
IV 0.22 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:41 Bearish
Pressure -66
Move 6.2%
30 Jul 10:38 Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 5.0%
30 Jul 20:39 Volatility
Pressure -30
Move 7.8%
31 Jul 04:07 Bearish
Pressure -79
Move 6.0%
31 Jul 17:24 Volatility
Pressure -23
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 23:22 Bearish
Pressure -18
Move 6.0%
1 Aug 09:32 Bullish
Pressure 44
Move 6.0%
2 Aug 12:56 Bearish
Pressure -18
Move 6.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.22
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.28
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.26
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.06
Put IV0.16
Skew0.10
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.85
Skew0.36
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.35
Skew0.08
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.32
Skew0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractRLI261218C00063000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike63.00
Volume6
OI17
IV0.24
ContractRLI261218C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike65.00
Volume6
OI3
IV0.24
ContractRLI260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume1
OI5
IV0.01
ContractRLI260918P00053000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike53.00
Volume-
OI412
IV0.85
ContractRLI260918P00063000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike63.00
Volume-
OI411
IV0.33
ContractRLI260918C00063000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike63.00
Volume-
OI163
IV0.32
ContractRLI260918P00060000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI29
IV0.08
ContractRLI261218P00048000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike48.00
Volume-
OI23
IV0.19

Evidence context