Basic Materials ยท Copper

HBM relative to SCCO

Hudbay Minerals Inc. / Southern Copper Corporation

HBM is relatively depressed; SCCO is relatively extended against their shared history.

HBM chart โ†—SCCO chart โ†—More HBM pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -0.46ฯƒHistorical percentile 38
Relationship quality 86/100
Evidence alignment 50/100
Stability 95/10016 centre crossings
Break risk 17/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending-1.05ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

HBM / SCCO gap -0.46ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, HBM is extended relative to SCCO; below zero, HBM is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, HBM is extended relative to SCCO; below zero, HBM is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateHBM / SCCO gap
29 Sep 2023-0.24ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-0.31ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-0.19ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-0.24ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-0.44ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-0.40ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-0.92ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-1.29ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.87ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-0.67ฯƒ
8 Dec 2023-0.22ฯƒ
15 Dec 2023-0.69ฯƒ
22 Dec 2023-1.18ฯƒ
29 Dec 2023-1.10ฯƒ
5 Jan 2024-0.98ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-0.55ฯƒ
19 Jan 2024-0.77ฯƒ
26 Jan 2024-0.49ฯƒ
2 Feb 2024-0.41ฯƒ
9 Feb 2024-0.78ฯƒ
16 Feb 2024-0.92ฯƒ
23 Feb 2024-0.51ฯƒ
1 Mar 20240.36ฯƒ
8 Mar 2024-0.19ฯƒ
15 Mar 2024-1.66ฯƒ
22 Mar 2024-1.90ฯƒ
29 Mar 2024-2.00ฯƒ
5 Apr 2024-2.06ฯƒ
12 Apr 2024-2.32ฯƒ
19 Apr 2024-1.94ฯƒ
26 Apr 2024-1.51ฯƒ
3 May 2024-1.58ฯƒ
10 May 2024-1.56ฯƒ
17 May 2024-0.99ฯƒ
24 May 2024-0.69ฯƒ
31 May 2024-0.70ฯƒ
7 Jun 2024-0.20ฯƒ
14 Jun 2024-0.23ฯƒ
21 Jun 2024-0.47ฯƒ
28 Jun 2024-0.09ฯƒ
5 Jul 2024-0.52ฯƒ
12 Jul 2024-0.65ฯƒ
19 Jul 2024-0.60ฯƒ
26 Jul 2024-0.80ฯƒ
2 Aug 2024-0.72ฯƒ
9 Aug 2024-0.94ฯƒ
16 Aug 2024-1.03ฯƒ
23 Aug 2024-0.68ฯƒ
30 Aug 2024-0.33ฯƒ
6 Sep 2024-0.80ฯƒ
13 Sep 2024-0.79ฯƒ
20 Sep 2024-0.90ฯƒ
27 Sep 2024-1.26ฯƒ
4 Oct 2024-1.06ฯƒ
11 Oct 2024-1.05ฯƒ
18 Oct 2024-0.45ฯƒ
25 Oct 2024-0.60ฯƒ
1 Nov 2024-0.49ฯƒ
8 Nov 2024-0.04ฯƒ
15 Nov 20240.17ฯƒ
22 Nov 20240.65ฯƒ
29 Nov 20240.42ฯƒ
6 Dec 20240.37ฯƒ
13 Dec 20240.21ฯƒ
20 Dec 20240.72ฯƒ
27 Dec 20240.66ฯƒ
3 Jan 20251.07ฯƒ
10 Jan 20250.98ฯƒ
17 Jan 20250.38ฯƒ
24 Jan 20250.59ฯƒ
31 Jan 20250.94ฯƒ
7 Feb 20251.23ฯƒ
14 Feb 20250.90ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-0.55ฯƒ
28 Feb 20250.01ฯƒ
7 Mar 2025-0.42ฯƒ
14 Mar 2025-0.29ฯƒ
21 Mar 2025-0.42ฯƒ
28 Mar 2025-0.07ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.61ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.41ฯƒ
18 Apr 20250.33ฯƒ
25 Apr 2025-0.34ฯƒ
2 May 20250.04ฯƒ
9 May 20250.40ฯƒ
16 May 20250.61ฯƒ
23 May 20251.05ฯƒ
30 May 20251.35ฯƒ
6 Jun 20251.31ฯƒ
13 Jun 20251.49ฯƒ
20 Jun 20251.58ฯƒ
27 Jun 20251.18ฯƒ
4 Jul 20250.98ฯƒ
11 Jul 20251.23ฯƒ
18 Jul 20251.32ฯƒ
25 Jul 20251.19ฯƒ
1 Aug 20251.37ฯƒ
8 Aug 20250.76ฯƒ
15 Aug 20252.15ฯƒ
22 Aug 20252.46ฯƒ
29 Aug 20252.79ฯƒ
5 Sep 20252.39ฯƒ
12 Sep 20252.50ฯƒ
19 Sep 20252.26ฯƒ
26 Sep 20251.64ฯƒ
3 Oct 20251.33ฯƒ
10 Oct 20252.05ฯƒ
17 Oct 20251.51ฯƒ
24 Oct 20251.27ฯƒ
31 Oct 20250.46ฯƒ
7 Nov 20250.73ฯƒ
14 Nov 20250.92ฯƒ
21 Nov 20251.16ฯƒ
28 Nov 20251.12ฯƒ
5 Dec 20250.84ฯƒ
12 Dec 20251.20ฯƒ
19 Dec 20251.30ฯƒ
26 Dec 20251.22ฯƒ
2 Jan 20261.24ฯƒ
9 Jan 20260.07ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-0.33ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.27ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.56ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-0.84ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-0.45ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.99ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-1.02ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.85ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.43ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.11ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.26ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-0.59ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.65ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.27ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.17ฯƒ
1 May 20260.31ฯƒ
8 May 20260.06ฯƒ
15 May 20260.43ฯƒ
22 May 20260.05ฯƒ
29 May 20260.69ฯƒ
5 Jun 20260.93ฯƒ
12 Jun 20260.41ฯƒ
19 Jun 20260.14ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.29ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-0.01ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.63ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.88ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.62ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.72ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-0.25ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.21ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-0.82ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-0.66ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.51ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-0.44ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.46ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

HBM 554.73SCCO 301.99
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 200.0400.0600.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateHBMSCCO
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202396.3098.19
13 Oct 202394.0595.82
20 Oct 202389.5393.24
27 Oct 202389.9495.01
3 Nov 202395.8998.63
10 Nov 202385.0195.18
17 Nov 202388.71100.68
24 Nov 202392.4099.95
1 Dec 202399.80103.36
8 Dec 2023102.88101.62
15 Dec 2023111.09110.82
22 Dec 2023115.40117.98
29 Dec 2023113.35115.92
5 Jan 2024109.86112.57
12 Jan 2024114.99111.98
19 Jan 2024107.60109.21
26 Jan 2024116.02112.06
2 Feb 2024113.96110.08
9 Feb 2024105.54107.96
16 Feb 2024112.73113.84
23 Feb 2024114.99111.58
1 Mar 2024124.85109.72
8 Mar 2024129.51117.36
15 Mar 2024142.46140.11
22 Mar 2024141.23141.96
29 Mar 2024143.90144.89
5 Apr 2024150.89150.02
12 Apr 2024156.65156.77
19 Apr 2024160.14154.29
26 Apr 2024177.41159.07
3 May 2024172.06156.99
10 May 2024180.49161.53
17 May 2024211.12170.51
24 May 2024197.97159.84
31 May 2024200.64161.37
7 Jun 2024186.66148.13
14 Jun 2024179.05144.60
21 Jun 2024181.11148.43
28 Jun 2024186.04146.55
5 Jul 2024200.23158.81
12 Jul 2024192.83156.70
19 Jul 2024165.90141.87
26 Jul 2024164.46143.40
2 Aug 2024151.71135.33
9 Aug 2024149.45136.39
16 Aug 2024158.91142.87
23 Aug 2024167.95143.89
30 Aug 2024167.75139.90
6 Sep 2024139.92129.42
13 Sep 2024151.03135.73
20 Sep 2024160.91142.48
27 Sep 2024190.95163.49
4 Oct 2024193.42162.22
11 Oct 2024192.80161.79
18 Oct 2024194.86155.27
25 Oct 2024197.95158.73
1 Nov 2024186.43151.42
8 Nov 2024192.39149.14
15 Nov 2024175.31138.18
22 Nov 2024187.66138.88
29 Nov 2024183.96139.73
6 Dec 2024181.90139.24
13 Dec 2024178.19139.24
20 Dec 2024169.55129.51
27 Dec 2024168.73129.79
3 Jan 2025174.08128.12
10 Jan 2025179.84131.74
17 Jan 2025176.75136.62
24 Jan 2025176.75134.37
31 Jan 2025170.17127.57
7 Feb 2025192.19134.68
14 Feb 2025188.28136.47
21 Feb 2025146.10130.35
28 Feb 2025146.30124.77
7 Mar 2025143.57127.62
14 Mar 2025159.22134.87
21 Mar 2025167.87140.88
28 Mar 2025158.40132.08
4 Apr 2025129.15109.98
11 Apr 2025142.12118.74
18 Apr 2025145.01121.02
25 Apr 2025153.45132.28
2 May 2025153.86128.60
9 May 2025158.81127.51
16 May 2025167.25129.52
23 May 2025181.47131.73
30 May 2025183.73129.69
6 Jun 2025198.15136.44
13 Jun 2025199.59135.19
20 Jun 2025197.53133.33
27 Jun 2025217.51146.24
4 Jul 2025223.07151.02
11 Jul 2025215.86144.96
18 Jul 2025201.03137.58
25 Jul 2025203.30140.08
1 Aug 2025186.62130.76
8 Aug 2025198.56142.81
15 Aug 2025227.19139.29
22 Aug 2025242.64141.72
29 Aug 2025247.17139.61
5 Sep 2025262.16149.62
12 Sep 2025278.85154.27
19 Sep 2025286.07159.81
26 Sep 2025291.84169.99
3 Oct 2025324.40186.39
10 Oct 2025341.51181.76
17 Oct 2025338.21188.60
24 Oct 2025326.26187.92
31 Oct 2025329.76201.66
7 Nov 2025332.44198.48
14 Nov 2025325.02192.66
21 Nov 2025307.09182.34
28 Nov 2025349.55198.69
5 Dec 2025360.26206.99
12 Dec 2025385.00209.94
19 Dec 2025397.16212.28
26 Dec 2025416.74220.42
2 Jan 2026414.26219.20
9 Jan 2026444.35251.38
16 Jan 2026463.73266.75
23 Jan 2026514.63271.69
30 Jan 2026488.05280.57
6 Feb 2026509.69294.89
13 Feb 2026537.92295.70
20 Feb 2026514.84300.20
27 Feb 2026583.88326.02
6 Mar 2026459.40276.24
13 Mar 2026427.38255.12
20 Mar 2026372.74228.06
27 Mar 2026401.61242.04
3 Apr 2026446.14265.58
10 Apr 2026501.60287.58
17 Apr 2026533.55290.21
24 Apr 2026502.01269.46
1 May 2026470.05255.65
8 May 2026515.82276.72
15 May 2026514.38268.04
22 May 2026502.83272.42
29 May 2026601.17290.06
5 Jun 2026529.02262.26
12 Jun 2026573.70287.77
19 Jun 2026568.96292.53
26 Jun 2026480.49259.67
3 Jul 2026465.85260.81
10 Jul 2026446.26266.60
17 Jul 2026419.86261.52
24 Jul 2026460.90271.85
31 Jul 2026469.15277.03
7 Aug 2026569.24301.82
14 Aug 2026550.27284.87
21 Aug 2026619.75333.31
28 Aug 2026603.87323.74
4 Sep 2026565.52306.71
11 Sep 2026546.89298.58
18 Sep 2026554.73301.99
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

HBM / SCCO gap -1.05ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, HBM is extended relative to SCCO; below zero, HBM is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, HBM is extended relative to SCCO; below zero, HBM is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateHBM / SCCO gap
22 Jan 20261.18ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.92ฯƒ
26 Jan 20260.80ฯƒ
27 Jan 20260.67ฯƒ
28 Jan 20260.86ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-0.14ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.52ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-0.49ฯƒ
3 Feb 2026-1.19ฯƒ
4 Feb 20260.14ฯƒ
5 Feb 2026-0.56ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-0.76ฯƒ
9 Feb 2026-0.77ฯƒ
10 Feb 2026-0.48ฯƒ
11 Feb 2026-0.54ฯƒ
12 Feb 2026-0.38ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.05ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.45ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-0.17ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-0.43ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.93ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-0.81ฯƒ
24 Feb 2026-0.11ฯƒ
25 Feb 2026-0.55ฯƒ
26 Feb 2026-0.41ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-0.47ฯƒ
2 Mar 2026-1.44ฯƒ
3 Mar 2026-1.44ฯƒ
4 Mar 2026-1.57ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-1.35ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-1.19ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-1.61ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-1.77ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-1.73ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-1.06ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.86ฯƒ
16 Mar 2026-1.19ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-1.16ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-1.07ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-1.30ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.94ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-1.10ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-1.05ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-0.82ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-1.15ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.87ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-0.90ฯƒ
31 Mar 2026-0.86ฯƒ
1 Apr 2026-0.67ฯƒ
2 Apr 2026-0.92ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-0.73ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-0.37ฯƒ
8 Apr 2026-0.38ฯƒ
9 Apr 2026-0.68ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.54ฯƒ
13 Apr 2026-0.86ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-0.05ฯƒ
15 Apr 20260.13ฯƒ
16 Apr 20260.26ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.27ฯƒ
20 Apr 20260.49ฯƒ
21 Apr 20260.04ฯƒ
22 Apr 20260.17ฯƒ
23 Apr 20260.28ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.68ฯƒ
27 Apr 20260.97ฯƒ
28 Apr 20260.82ฯƒ
29 Apr 20260.68ฯƒ
30 Apr 20260.78ฯƒ
1 May 20260.62ฯƒ
4 May 20260.42ฯƒ
5 May 20260.32ฯƒ
6 May 20260.10ฯƒ
7 May 20260.45ฯƒ
8 May 20260.62ฯƒ
11 May 20260.93ฯƒ
12 May 20261.27ฯƒ
13 May 20261.33ฯƒ
14 May 20261.40ฯƒ
15 May 20261.17ฯƒ
18 May 20261.25ฯƒ
19 May 20261.37ฯƒ
20 May 20261.16ฯƒ
21 May 20260.79ฯƒ
22 May 20260.51ฯƒ
26 May 20260.83ฯƒ
27 May 20261.06ฯƒ
28 May 20261.32ฯƒ
29 May 20262.18ฯƒ
1 Jun 20262.62ฯƒ
2 Jun 20262.64ฯƒ
3 Jun 20262.30ฯƒ
4 Jun 20262.43ฯƒ
5 Jun 20262.03ฯƒ
8 Jun 20262.57ฯƒ
9 Jun 20261.75ฯƒ
10 Jun 20261.98ฯƒ
11 Jun 20261.66ฯƒ
12 Jun 20261.58ฯƒ
15 Jun 20261.77ฯƒ
16 Jun 20261.84ฯƒ
17 Jun 20261.60ฯƒ
18 Jun 20261.14ฯƒ
22 Jun 20261.62ฯƒ
23 Jun 20261.25ฯƒ
24 Jun 20260.40ฯƒ
25 Jun 20260.46ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.68ฯƒ
29 Jun 20261.25ฯƒ
30 Jun 20260.56ฯƒ
1 Jul 20260.45ฯƒ
2 Jul 20260.10ฯƒ
6 Jul 20260.42ฯƒ
7 Jul 2026-0.40ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-0.85ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-0.89ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.99ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-1.43ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-1.06ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-1.34ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-1.59ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-1.61ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-1.51ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-1.27ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-1.63ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-0.95ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.84ฯƒ
27 Jul 2026-0.79ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-1.22ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-0.71ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-1.15ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.91ฯƒ
3 Aug 2026-0.79ฯƒ
4 Aug 2026-0.79ฯƒ
5 Aug 2026-0.25ฯƒ
6 Aug 20260.38ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.57ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.65ฯƒ
11 Aug 20260.72ฯƒ
12 Aug 20260.79ฯƒ
13 Aug 20260.68ฯƒ
14 Aug 20261.11ฯƒ
17 Aug 20260.82ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.63ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.58ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.59ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.07ฯƒ
24 Aug 2026-0.02ฯƒ
25 Aug 20260.14ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.23ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.20ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.20ฯƒ
31 Aug 2026-0.06ฯƒ
1 Sep 2026-0.34ฯƒ
2 Sep 2026-0.41ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.24ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.17ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.16ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.00ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.15ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.13ฯƒ
14 Sep 20260.09ฯƒ
15 Sep 2026-0.25ฯƒ
16 Sep 2026-0.29ฯƒ
17 Sep 2026-0.17ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.15ฯƒ
21 Sep 2026-0.22ฯƒ
22 Sep 2026-0.33ฯƒ
23 Sep 2026-0.50ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-0.66ฯƒ
25 Sep 2026-0.78ฯƒ
28 Sep 2026-0.52ฯƒ
29 Sep 2026-0.43ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-0.63ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-0.62ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-0.59ฯƒ
5 Oct 2026-0.53ฯƒ
6 Oct 2026-0.62ฯƒ
7 Oct 2026-0.93ฯƒ
8 Oct 2026-1.05ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowHBMDepressed legSCCOExtended legReturn differenceHBM less SCCO
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-181.4%1.1%0.3 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-10.5%-9.4%-1.1 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-2.5%3.2%-5.7 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in HBM / SCCO?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

No active pair setup

Keep HBM / SCCO on routine watch

The two securities are not far enough apart, with enough confirmation, to support a useful convergence case.

01 ยท Relationship86/100

Stability 95/100 ยท break risk 17/100

02 ยท Separation0.46ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence50/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Keep the pair on the relationship map and wait for a meaningful, evidence-backed separation.

A future case would need an unusual separation, a dependable relationship and evidence favouring HBM over SCCO.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

There is no reason to force a long or short leg while the relationship remains near normal.

A favourable relative move means HBM rises more than SCCO, falls less than SCCO, or rises while SCCO falls. If SCCO outperforms HBM, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

There is no current dislocation edge; transaction costs can dominate small spread movements.

There is no active case to invalidate because no relative-value position is currently supported.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long HBM / short SCCO

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for HBM to outperform SCCO; HBM can rise faster, fall less, or rise while SCCO falls. The pair loses ground when SCCO outperforms HBM.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œNo setup at presentโ€ to confirmed convergence. A new, unusual separation would need to develop while the historical relationship remains dependable.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study HBM alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in HBM. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and HBM-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving HBM price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study SCCO alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in SCCO. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in SCCO must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.32ฯƒ from the centre

Example: HBM +5%, SCCO +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.575, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioHBMSCCONew gap
Both rise5%2%0.32ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.02ฯƒPast centre
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.16ฯƒPast centre
The gap works against you-3%3%1.08ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.46ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.575 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • HBM Market Dynamics is improving.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

1.575ร—

A 1% move in SCCO is associated with approximately 1.575% in HBM in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.81

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability95/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life8.1 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings16

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context88/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 1

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 1 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
100.0%
Median time among resolved cases
5.0 weeks
Largest further extension
0.37ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-02.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-30.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-29.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-21.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-17.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-16.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-15.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-09.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-08.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context