Basic Materials ยท Copper

ERO relative to FCX

Ero Copper Corp / Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc

ERO is relatively depressed; FCX is relatively extended against their shared history.

ERO chart โ†—FCX chart โ†—More ERO pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -0.12ฯƒHistorical percentile 48
Relationship quality 87/100
Evidence alignment 50/100
Stability 100/10021 centre crossings
Break risk 9/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap narrowing0.65ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

ERO / FCX gap -0.12ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, ERO is extended relative to FCX; below zero, ERO is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, ERO is extended relative to FCX; below zero, ERO is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateERO / FCX gap
29 Sep 20231.54ฯƒ
6 Oct 20231.33ฯƒ
13 Oct 20230.76ฯƒ
20 Oct 20230.79ฯƒ
27 Oct 20230.87ฯƒ
3 Nov 20230.28ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-0.34ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-1.05ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.72ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-0.72ฯƒ
8 Dec 2023-0.51ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.00ฯƒ
22 Dec 2023-0.03ฯƒ
29 Dec 2023-0.44ฯƒ
5 Jan 20240.10ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-0.22ฯƒ
19 Jan 20240.19ฯƒ
26 Jan 20240.00ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.07ฯƒ
9 Feb 20240.70ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.64ฯƒ
23 Feb 20240.74ฯƒ
1 Mar 20241.50ฯƒ
8 Mar 20240.51ฯƒ
15 Mar 20240.45ฯƒ
22 Mar 20240.21ฯƒ
29 Mar 20240.03ฯƒ
5 Apr 20240.12ฯƒ
12 Apr 20240.00ฯƒ
19 Apr 2024-0.20ฯƒ
26 Apr 2024-0.20ฯƒ
3 May 2024-0.12ฯƒ
10 May 2024-0.10ฯƒ
17 May 20240.18ฯƒ
24 May 20240.34ฯƒ
31 May 2024-0.38ฯƒ
7 Jun 2024-0.33ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.16ฯƒ
21 Jun 2024-0.06ฯƒ
28 Jun 20240.44ฯƒ
5 Jul 20240.39ฯƒ
12 Jul 20240.40ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.33ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.41ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.97ฯƒ
9 Aug 20241.00ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.93ฯƒ
23 Aug 20241.22ฯƒ
30 Aug 20241.02ฯƒ
6 Sep 20241.15ฯƒ
13 Sep 20241.61ฯƒ
20 Sep 20241.13ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.34ฯƒ
4 Oct 20240.19ฯƒ
11 Oct 2024-0.04ฯƒ
18 Oct 2024-0.16ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.07ฯƒ
1 Nov 2024-0.08ฯƒ
8 Nov 2024-0.71ฯƒ
15 Nov 2024-0.84ฯƒ
22 Nov 2024-0.91ฯƒ
29 Nov 2024-1.20ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-1.25ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-1.39ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-0.97ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-0.92ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-0.37ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-0.38ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-0.86ฯƒ
24 Jan 2025-0.23ฯƒ
31 Jan 2025-0.14ฯƒ
7 Feb 2025-0.77ฯƒ
14 Feb 2025-0.52ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-0.78ฯƒ
28 Feb 2025-1.35ฯƒ
7 Mar 2025-1.08ฯƒ
14 Mar 2025-1.36ฯƒ
21 Mar 2025-1.27ฯƒ
28 Mar 2025-1.48ฯƒ
4 Apr 2025-0.35ฯƒ
11 Apr 2025-1.24ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-0.85ฯƒ
25 Apr 2025-1.03ฯƒ
2 May 2025-0.98ฯƒ
9 May 2025-0.71ฯƒ
16 May 2025-0.93ฯƒ
23 May 2025-0.53ฯƒ
30 May 2025-0.49ฯƒ
6 Jun 2025-0.40ฯƒ
13 Jun 2025-0.63ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.36ฯƒ
27 Jun 2025-0.50ฯƒ
4 Jul 2025-0.83ฯƒ
11 Jul 2025-1.81ฯƒ
18 Jul 2025-1.96ฯƒ
25 Jul 2025-2.01ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-1.29ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-1.43ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-1.59ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-1.52ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-1.80ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-1.90ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-0.66ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-0.68ฯƒ
26 Sep 20252.24ฯƒ
3 Oct 20252.26ฯƒ
10 Oct 20251.94ฯƒ
17 Oct 20252.08ฯƒ
24 Oct 20251.59ฯƒ
31 Oct 20251.71ฯƒ
7 Nov 20252.26ฯƒ
14 Nov 20252.14ฯƒ
21 Nov 20252.23ฯƒ
28 Nov 20252.69ฯƒ
5 Dec 20252.09ฯƒ
12 Dec 20251.71ฯƒ
19 Dec 20251.62ฯƒ
26 Dec 20251.36ฯƒ
2 Jan 20261.85ฯƒ
9 Jan 20261.07ฯƒ
16 Jan 20260.74ฯƒ
23 Jan 20261.25ฯƒ
30 Jan 20261.43ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.69ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.38ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.01ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.38ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.18ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.24ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.26ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.05ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-0.05ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.26ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-1.16ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.23ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.08ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.02ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.55ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.47ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.15ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-1.02ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.79ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-0.74ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.64ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-0.51ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.78ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.71ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.84ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.59ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.17ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.51ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.26ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.17ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.13ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.22ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.12ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

ERO 198.20FCX 199.05
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 50.0100.0150.0200.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateEROFCX
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202395.0798.34
13 Oct 202384.6995.46
20 Oct 202380.0591.23
27 Oct 202380.3490.67
3 Nov 202378.4294.65
10 Nov 202368.1690.70
17 Nov 202367.6396.94
24 Nov 202372.9199.20
1 Dec 202379.18105.67
8 Dec 202378.54102.73
15 Dec 202394.03111.75
22 Dec 202396.29114.12
29 Dec 202391.59114.63
5 Jan 202495.07111.51
12 Jan 202490.14110.65
19 Jan 202488.63104.78
26 Jan 202488.75107.00
2 Feb 202491.18108.38
9 Feb 202490.43100.97
16 Feb 202494.37104.95
23 Feb 202496.17105.30
1 Mar 2024102.90102.51
8 Mar 202495.94107.70
15 Mar 2024110.50120.57
22 Mar 2024108.53121.89
29 Mar 2024111.83127.08
5 Apr 2024121.17133.70
12 Apr 2024119.61134.11
19 Apr 2024116.82134.49
26 Apr 2024119.61136.90
3 May 2024120.77136.76
10 May 2024124.83139.85
17 May 2024138.46147.01
24 May 2024132.14139.69
31 May 2024123.55142.94
7 Jun 2024113.81133.57
14 Jun 2024117.81130.42
21 Jun 2024119.03134.35
28 Jun 2024124.01131.75
5 Jul 2024133.12139.66
12 Jul 2024132.37139.01
19 Jul 2024113.75124.80
26 Jul 2024112.12122.35
2 Aug 2024110.27114.11
9 Aug 2024107.48111.61
16 Aug 2024114.79118.11
23 Aug 2024123.90121.43
30 Aug 2024119.20120.40
6 Sep 2024106.03108.76
13 Sep 2024122.80115.99
20 Sep 2024121.81121.07
27 Sep 2024132.02139.59
4 Oct 2024126.86137.44
11 Oct 2024121.29136.03
18 Oct 2024114.04131.41
25 Oct 2024112.47127.11
1 Nov 2024107.08124.35
8 Nov 2024100.58126.45
15 Nov 202488.63116.47
22 Nov 202490.55119.25
29 Nov 202488.28120.56
6 Dec 202482.25114.75
13 Dec 202479.41113.44
20 Dec 202476.86105.99
27 Dec 202477.44105.99
3 Jan 202580.16102.86
10 Jan 202583.59106.32
17 Jan 202582.08110.11
24 Jan 202582.37103.52
31 Jan 202577.7398.15
7 Feb 202577.67104.64
14 Feb 202583.82108.06
21 Feb 202574.30101.24
28 Feb 202568.56101.05
7 Mar 202571.23101.13
14 Mar 202573.26106.36
21 Mar 202577.73110.20
28 Mar 202571.00105.19
4 Apr 202557.4879.81
11 Apr 202560.8591.31
18 Apr 202563.4090.48
25 Apr 202573.20102.72
2 May 202574.36103.40
9 May 202577.78104.12
16 May 202575.93104.56
23 May 202583.01107.31
30 May 202581.85105.82
6 Jun 202591.59114.07
13 Jun 202587.18112.59
20 Jun 202588.40110.61
27 Jun 202597.27120.65
4 Jul 202598.43125.95
11 Jul 202587.59127.49
18 Jul 202582.43123.62
25 Jul 202582.08123.87
1 Aug 202577.78110.46
8 Aug 202580.92115.54
15 Aug 202580.45116.89
22 Aug 202583.59119.43
29 Aug 202583.18122.52
5 Sep 202586.83127.87
12 Sep 202598.09123.40
19 Sep 202598.43124.01
26 Sep 2025108.1298.65
3 Oct 2025124.36109.47
10 Oct 2025123.78112.81
17 Oct 2025128.07114.04
24 Oct 2025120.59114.57
31 Oct 2025123.84115.48
7 Nov 2025125.46110.25
14 Nov 2025124.83111.22
21 Nov 2025125.29110.42
28 Nov 2025147.16119.03
5 Dec 2025145.01125.18
12 Dec 2025146.58131.21
19 Dec 2025151.91136.11
26 Dec 2025162.30146.89
2 Jan 2026168.50143.81
9 Jan 2026169.78156.55
16 Jan 2026171.23163.00
23 Jan 2026190.49167.72
30 Jan 2026194.37167.22
6 Feb 2026177.55168.44
13 Feb 2026178.19174.46
20 Feb 2026174.88178.63
27 Feb 2026198.26189.01
6 Mar 2026161.02164.80
13 Mar 2026151.51156.53
20 Mar 2026136.83144.62
27 Mar 2026145.30156.14
3 Apr 2026162.99170.41
10 Apr 2026180.68188.23
17 Apr 2026167.92195.35
24 Apr 2026158.41169.86
1 May 2026146.23157.34
8 May 2026165.20171.53
15 May 2026158.12175.32
22 May 2026156.50172.48
29 May 2026176.57182.83
5 Jun 2026149.54176.32
12 Jun 2026170.48190.11
19 Jun 2026172.56190.86
26 Jun 2026154.12173.55
3 Jul 2026152.03169.43
10 Jul 2026148.38170.96
17 Jul 2026139.97162.43
24 Jul 2026150.70174.18
31 Jul 2026156.09174.26
7 Aug 2026199.01193.71
14 Aug 2026196.06185.00
21 Aug 2026228.65213.30
28 Aug 2026225.23212.71
4 Sep 2026202.44202.36
11 Sep 2026205.74197.74
18 Sep 2026198.20199.05
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

ERO / FCX gap 0.65ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, ERO is extended relative to FCX; below zero, ERO is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, ERO is extended relative to FCX; below zero, ERO is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateERO / FCX gap
22 Jan 20261.96ฯƒ
23 Jan 20262.27ฯƒ
26 Jan 20262.30ฯƒ
27 Jan 20262.55ฯƒ
28 Jan 20262.60ฯƒ
29 Jan 20262.87ฯƒ
30 Jan 20262.58ฯƒ
2 Feb 20262.68ฯƒ
3 Feb 20262.60ฯƒ
4 Feb 20262.76ฯƒ
5 Feb 20262.10ฯƒ
6 Feb 20261.33ฯƒ
9 Feb 20261.01ฯƒ
10 Feb 20260.79ฯƒ
11 Feb 20260.44ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.72ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.79ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.93ฯƒ
18 Feb 20260.62ฯƒ
19 Feb 20260.43ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.17ฯƒ
23 Feb 20260.27ฯƒ
24 Feb 20260.60ฯƒ
25 Feb 20260.70ฯƒ
26 Feb 20260.83ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.81ฯƒ
2 Mar 20260.47ฯƒ
3 Mar 20260.14ฯƒ
4 Mar 20260.40ฯƒ
5 Mar 20260.09ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.46ฯƒ
9 Mar 20260.35ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-0.21ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-0.02ฯƒ
12 Mar 20260.30ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.55ฯƒ
16 Mar 20260.52ฯƒ
17 Mar 20260.37ฯƒ
18 Mar 20260.24ฯƒ
19 Mar 20260.39ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.58ฯƒ
23 Mar 20260.31ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-0.18ฯƒ
25 Mar 20260.00ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-0.06ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.07ฯƒ
30 Mar 20260.48ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.13ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.09ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.07ฯƒ
6 Apr 20260.27ฯƒ
7 Apr 20260.54ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.04ฯƒ
9 Apr 2026-0.08ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.28ฯƒ
13 Apr 20260.05ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-0.85ฯƒ
15 Apr 2026-1.12ฯƒ
16 Apr 2026-1.11ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-1.80ฯƒ
20 Apr 2026-2.04ฯƒ
21 Apr 2026-2.06ฯƒ
22 Apr 2026-2.41ฯƒ
23 Apr 2026-0.37ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.24ฯƒ
27 Apr 2026-0.01ฯƒ
28 Apr 20260.12ฯƒ
29 Apr 20260.27ฯƒ
30 Apr 2026-0.02ฯƒ
1 May 20260.02ฯƒ
4 May 2026-0.07ฯƒ
5 May 20260.00ฯƒ
6 May 2026-0.30ฯƒ
7 May 2026-0.21ฯƒ
8 May 20260.13ฯƒ
11 May 2026-0.37ฯƒ
12 May 20260.41ฯƒ
13 May 2026-0.23ฯƒ
14 May 2026-0.41ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.78ฯƒ
18 May 2026-0.36ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.03ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.34ฯƒ
21 May 2026-0.84ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.64ฯƒ
26 May 2026-0.42ฯƒ
27 May 2026-0.52ฯƒ
28 May 2026-0.37ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.09ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-0.02ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-0.83ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-1.06ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-0.92ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-1.57ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-1.18ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-1.56ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-1.23ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-1.42ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.19ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-1.05ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-1.30ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-0.91ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-1.10ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-0.94ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-0.91ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-0.85ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-1.14ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.95ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-1.03ฯƒ
30 Jun 2026-0.98ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-0.84ฯƒ
2 Jul 2026-0.73ฯƒ
6 Jul 2026-0.65ฯƒ
7 Jul 2026-0.92ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-0.95ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-1.17ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-1.18ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-1.22ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-1.14ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-1.18ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-0.94ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-1.09ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-0.71ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-0.88ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-1.42ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-1.36ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-1.31ฯƒ
27 Jul 2026-1.24ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-1.24ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-0.95ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-1.03ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.88ฯƒ
3 Aug 2026-0.93ฯƒ
4 Aug 2026-1.13ฯƒ
5 Aug 2026-1.03ฯƒ
6 Aug 2026-0.47ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.42ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.99ฯƒ
11 Aug 20261.30ฯƒ
12 Aug 20261.13ฯƒ
13 Aug 20261.11ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.98ฯƒ
17 Aug 20260.93ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.72ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.46ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.65ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.57ฯƒ
24 Aug 20260.05ฯƒ
25 Aug 20260.19ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.02ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.32ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.42ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.02ฯƒ
1 Sep 2026-0.06ฯƒ
2 Sep 2026-0.41ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.10ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.09ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.09ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.28ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.29ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.49ฯƒ
14 Sep 20260.25ฯƒ
15 Sep 2026-0.19ฯƒ
16 Sep 2026-0.26ฯƒ
17 Sep 2026-0.25ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.08ฯƒ
21 Sep 2026-0.03ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.38ฯƒ
23 Sep 20260.50ฯƒ
24 Sep 20260.82ฯƒ
25 Sep 20261.02ฯƒ
28 Sep 20260.95ฯƒ
29 Sep 20261.13ฯƒ
30 Sep 20261.16ฯƒ
1 Oct 20261.01ฯƒ
2 Oct 20261.10ฯƒ
5 Oct 20261.15ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.99ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.76ฯƒ
8 Oct 20260.65ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowERODepressed legFCXExtended legReturn differenceERO less FCX
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-3.7%0.7%-4.3 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-13.3%-6.7%-6.6 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-1814.9%4.3%10.6 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in ERO / FCX?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

No active pair setup

Keep ERO / FCX on routine watch

The two securities are not far enough apart, with enough confirmation, to support a useful convergence case.

01 ยท Relationship86/100

Stability 100/100 ยท break risk 9/100

02 ยท Separation0.12ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence50/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap narrowing

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Keep the pair on the relationship map and wait for a meaningful, evidence-backed separation.

A future case would need an unusual separation, a dependable relationship and evidence favouring ERO over FCX.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

There is no reason to force a long or short leg while the relationship remains near normal.

A favourable relative move means ERO rises more than FCX, falls less than FCX, or rises while FCX falls. If FCX outperforms ERO, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

There is no current dislocation edge; transaction costs can dominate small spread movements.

There is no active case to invalidate because no relative-value position is currently supported.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long ERO / short FCX

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for ERO to outperform FCX; ERO can rise faster, fall less, or rise while FCX falls. The pair loses ground when FCX outperforms ERO.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œNo setup at presentโ€ to confirmed convergence. A new, unusual separation would need to develop while the historical relationship remains dependable.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study ERO alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in ERO. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and ERO-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving ERO price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study FCX alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in FCX. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in FCX must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.04ฯƒ from the centre

Example: ERO +5%, FCX +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.320, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioEROFCXNew gap
Both rise5%2%0.04ฯƒPast centre
Both fall-2%-5%0.23ฯƒPast centre
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.39ฯƒPast centre
The gap works against you-3%3%0.64ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.12ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.320 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • ERO Market Dynamics is improving.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • FCX has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

1.320ร—

A 1% move in FCX is associated with approximately 1.320% in ERO in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.68

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability100/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life6.1 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings21

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context75/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 2

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 2 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
50.0%
Median time among resolved cases
4.0 weeks
Largest further extension
0.49ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-05.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-02.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-23.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-15.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-28.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-28.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-08-21.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-08-20.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context