Basic Materials ยท Copper

HBM relative to ERO

Hudbay Minerals Inc. / Ero Copper Corp

HBM is relatively depressed; ERO is relatively extended against their shared history.

HBM chart โ†—ERO chart โ†—More HBM pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 0.84ฯƒHistorical percentile 72
Relationship quality 52/100
Evidence alignment 46/100
Stability 56/10010 centre crossings
Break risk 54/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending1.82ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

ERO / HBM gap 0.84ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, ERO is extended relative to HBM; below zero, ERO is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, ERO is extended relative to HBM; below zero, ERO is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateERO / HBM gap
29 Sep 20231.53ฯƒ
6 Oct 20231.34ฯƒ
13 Oct 20230.76ฯƒ
20 Oct 20230.57ฯƒ
27 Oct 20230.58ฯƒ
3 Nov 20230.28ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-0.19ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-0.35ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.04ฯƒ
1 Dec 20230.22ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.10ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.90ฯƒ
22 Dec 20230.94ฯƒ
29 Dec 20230.70ฯƒ
5 Jan 20241.00ฯƒ
12 Jan 20240.58ฯƒ
19 Jan 20240.66ฯƒ
26 Jan 20240.47ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.66ฯƒ
9 Feb 20240.82ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.89ฯƒ
23 Feb 20240.94ฯƒ
1 Mar 20241.10ฯƒ
8 Mar 20240.61ฯƒ
15 Mar 20241.15ฯƒ
22 Mar 20241.07ฯƒ
29 Mar 20241.19ฯƒ
5 Apr 20241.52ฯƒ
12 Apr 20241.35ฯƒ
19 Apr 20241.16ฯƒ
26 Apr 20241.02ฯƒ
3 May 20241.15ฯƒ
10 May 20241.21ฯƒ
17 May 20241.38ฯƒ
24 May 20241.29ฯƒ
31 May 20240.87ฯƒ
7 Jun 20240.60ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.91ฯƒ
21 Jun 20240.94ฯƒ
28 Jun 20241.09ฯƒ
5 Jul 20241.30ฯƒ
12 Jul 20241.36ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.91ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.85ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.97ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.87ฯƒ
16 Aug 20241.08ฯƒ
23 Aug 20241.36ฯƒ
30 Aug 20241.15ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.97ฯƒ
13 Sep 20241.59ฯƒ
20 Sep 20241.38ฯƒ
27 Sep 20241.38ฯƒ
4 Oct 20241.12ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.88ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.50ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.38ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.27ฯƒ
8 Nov 2024-0.17ฯƒ
15 Nov 2024-0.63ฯƒ
22 Nov 2024-0.69ฯƒ
29 Nov 2024-0.78ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-1.15ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-1.29ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-1.34ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-1.29ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-1.18ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-1.03ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-1.08ฯƒ
24 Jan 2025-1.06ฯƒ
31 Jan 2025-1.29ฯƒ
7 Feb 2025-1.61ฯƒ
14 Feb 2025-1.13ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-1.14ฯƒ
28 Feb 2025-1.59ฯƒ
7 Mar 2025-1.33ฯƒ
14 Mar 2025-1.44ฯƒ
21 Mar 2025-1.25ฯƒ
28 Mar 2025-1.61ฯƒ
4 Apr 2025-2.25ฯƒ
11 Apr 2025-2.19ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-2.01ฯƒ
25 Apr 2025-1.35ฯƒ
2 May 2025-1.27ฯƒ
9 May 2025-1.10ฯƒ
16 May 2025-1.37ฯƒ
23 May 2025-1.09ฯƒ
30 May 2025-1.20ฯƒ
6 Jun 2025-0.77ฯƒ
13 Jun 2025-1.07ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.96ฯƒ
27 Jun 2025-0.68ฯƒ
4 Jul 2025-0.68ฯƒ
11 Jul 2025-1.25ฯƒ
18 Jul 2025-1.40ฯƒ
25 Jul 2025-1.45ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-1.53ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-1.47ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-1.86ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-1.82ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-1.89ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-1.81ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-1.29ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-1.34ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-0.86ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-0.36ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-0.52ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-0.30ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-0.55ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-0.42ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-0.37ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-0.34ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-0.17ฯƒ
28 Nov 20250.39ฯƒ
5 Dec 20250.23ฯƒ
12 Dec 20250.11ฯƒ
19 Dec 20250.23ฯƒ
26 Dec 20250.47ฯƒ
2 Jan 20260.70ฯƒ
9 Jan 20260.56ฯƒ
16 Jan 20260.49ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.81ฯƒ
30 Jan 20261.07ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.44ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.32ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.33ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.70ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.17ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.02ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.19ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.05ฯƒ
3 Apr 20260.32ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.59ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.01ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.15ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.43ฯƒ
8 May 20260.01ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.23ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.23ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.02ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.62ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.10ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-0.01ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.19ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-0.19ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.21ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.38ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.21ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.06ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.79ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.80ฯƒ
21 Aug 20261.35ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.33ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.91ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.08ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.84ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

ERO 198.20HBM 554.73
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 200.0400.0600.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateEROHBM
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202395.0796.30
13 Oct 202384.6994.05
20 Oct 202380.0589.53
27 Oct 202380.3489.94
3 Nov 202378.4295.89
10 Nov 202368.1685.01
17 Nov 202367.6388.71
24 Nov 202372.9192.40
1 Dec 202379.1899.80
8 Dec 202378.54102.88
15 Dec 202394.03111.09
22 Dec 202396.29115.40
29 Dec 202391.59113.35
5 Jan 202495.07109.86
12 Jan 202490.14114.99
19 Jan 202488.63107.60
26 Jan 202488.75116.02
2 Feb 202491.18113.96
9 Feb 202490.43105.54
16 Feb 202494.37112.73
23 Feb 202496.17114.99
1 Mar 2024102.90124.85
8 Mar 202495.94129.51
15 Mar 2024110.50142.46
22 Mar 2024108.53141.23
29 Mar 2024111.83143.90
5 Apr 2024121.17150.89
12 Apr 2024119.61156.65
19 Apr 2024116.82160.14
26 Apr 2024119.61177.41
3 May 2024120.77172.06
10 May 2024124.83180.49
17 May 2024138.46211.12
24 May 2024132.14197.97
31 May 2024123.55200.64
7 Jun 2024113.81186.66
14 Jun 2024117.81179.05
21 Jun 2024119.03181.11
28 Jun 2024124.01186.04
5 Jul 2024133.12200.23
12 Jul 2024132.37192.83
19 Jul 2024113.75165.90
26 Jul 2024112.12164.46
2 Aug 2024110.27151.71
9 Aug 2024107.48149.45
16 Aug 2024114.79158.91
23 Aug 2024123.90167.95
30 Aug 2024119.20167.75
6 Sep 2024106.03139.92
13 Sep 2024122.80151.03
20 Sep 2024121.81160.91
27 Sep 2024132.02190.95
4 Oct 2024126.86193.42
11 Oct 2024121.29192.80
18 Oct 2024114.04194.86
25 Oct 2024112.47197.95
1 Nov 2024107.08186.43
8 Nov 2024100.58192.39
15 Nov 202488.63175.31
22 Nov 202490.55187.66
29 Nov 202488.28183.96
6 Dec 202482.25181.90
13 Dec 202479.41178.19
20 Dec 202476.86169.55
27 Dec 202477.44168.73
3 Jan 202580.16174.08
10 Jan 202583.59179.84
17 Jan 202582.08176.75
24 Jan 202582.37176.75
31 Jan 202577.73170.17
7 Feb 202577.67192.19
14 Feb 202583.82188.28
21 Feb 202574.30146.10
28 Feb 202568.56146.30
7 Mar 202571.23143.57
14 Mar 202573.26159.22
21 Mar 202577.73167.87
28 Mar 202571.00158.40
4 Apr 202557.48129.15
11 Apr 202560.85142.12
18 Apr 202563.40145.01
25 Apr 202573.20153.45
2 May 202574.36153.86
9 May 202577.78158.81
16 May 202575.93167.25
23 May 202583.01181.47
30 May 202581.85183.73
6 Jun 202591.59198.15
13 Jun 202587.18199.59
20 Jun 202588.40197.53
27 Jun 202597.27217.51
4 Jul 202598.43223.07
11 Jul 202587.59215.86
18 Jul 202582.43201.03
25 Jul 202582.08203.30
1 Aug 202577.78186.62
8 Aug 202580.92198.56
15 Aug 202580.45227.19
22 Aug 202583.59242.64
29 Aug 202583.18247.17
5 Sep 202586.83262.16
12 Sep 202598.09278.85
19 Sep 202598.43286.07
26 Sep 2025108.12291.84
3 Oct 2025124.36324.40
10 Oct 2025123.78341.51
17 Oct 2025128.07338.21
24 Oct 2025120.59326.26
31 Oct 2025123.84329.76
7 Nov 2025125.46332.44
14 Nov 2025124.83325.02
21 Nov 2025125.29307.09
28 Nov 2025147.16349.55
5 Dec 2025145.01360.26
12 Dec 2025146.58385.00
19 Dec 2025151.91397.16
26 Dec 2025162.30416.74
2 Jan 2026168.50414.26
9 Jan 2026169.78444.35
16 Jan 2026171.23463.73
23 Jan 2026190.49514.63
30 Jan 2026194.37488.05
6 Feb 2026177.55509.69
13 Feb 2026178.19537.92
20 Feb 2026174.88514.84
27 Feb 2026198.26583.88
6 Mar 2026161.02459.40
13 Mar 2026151.51427.38
20 Mar 2026136.83372.74
27 Mar 2026145.30401.61
3 Apr 2026162.99446.14
10 Apr 2026180.68501.60
17 Apr 2026167.92533.55
24 Apr 2026158.41502.01
1 May 2026146.23470.05
8 May 2026165.20515.82
15 May 2026158.12514.38
22 May 2026156.50502.83
29 May 2026176.57601.17
5 Jun 2026149.54529.02
12 Jun 2026170.48573.70
19 Jun 2026172.56568.96
26 Jun 2026154.12480.49
3 Jul 2026152.03465.85
10 Jul 2026148.38446.26
17 Jul 2026139.97419.86
24 Jul 2026150.70460.90
31 Jul 2026156.09469.15
7 Aug 2026199.01569.24
14 Aug 2026196.06550.27
21 Aug 2026228.65619.75
28 Aug 2026225.23603.87
4 Sep 2026202.44565.52
11 Sep 2026205.74546.89
18 Sep 2026198.20554.73
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

ERO / HBM gap 1.82ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, ERO is extended relative to HBM; below zero, ERO is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, ERO is extended relative to HBM; below zero, ERO is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateERO / HBM gap
22 Jan 20260.64ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.95ฯƒ
26 Jan 20260.96ฯƒ
27 Jan 20261.25ฯƒ
28 Jan 20261.13ฯƒ
29 Jan 20261.81ฯƒ
30 Jan 20261.78ฯƒ
2 Feb 20261.82ฯƒ
3 Feb 20261.73ฯƒ
4 Feb 20261.51ฯƒ
5 Feb 20261.17ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.23ฯƒ
9 Feb 20260.14ฯƒ
10 Feb 20260.07ฯƒ
11 Feb 2026-0.19ฯƒ
12 Feb 2026-0.29ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-0.34ฯƒ
17 Feb 2026-0.24ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-0.05ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-0.13ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.06ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-0.16ฯƒ
24 Feb 2026-0.05ฯƒ
25 Feb 20260.29ฯƒ
26 Feb 20260.18ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-0.02ฯƒ
2 Mar 20260.36ฯƒ
3 Mar 20260.22ฯƒ
4 Mar 20260.61ฯƒ
5 Mar 20260.37ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.27ฯƒ
9 Mar 20260.35ฯƒ
10 Mar 20260.04ฯƒ
11 Mar 20260.26ฯƒ
12 Mar 20260.30ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.38ฯƒ
16 Mar 20260.55ฯƒ
17 Mar 20260.41ฯƒ
18 Mar 20260.31ฯƒ
19 Mar 20260.66ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.75ฯƒ
23 Mar 20260.84ฯƒ
24 Mar 20260.75ฯƒ
25 Mar 20260.46ฯƒ
26 Mar 20260.76ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.60ฯƒ
30 Mar 20260.80ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.53ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.54ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.75ฯƒ
6 Apr 20260.80ฯƒ
7 Apr 20260.93ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.55ฯƒ
9 Apr 20260.90ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.62ฯƒ
13 Apr 20260.94ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-0.22ฯƒ
15 Apr 2026-0.18ฯƒ
16 Apr 2026-0.28ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.94ฯƒ
20 Apr 2026-1.07ฯƒ
21 Apr 2026-0.84ฯƒ
22 Apr 2026-0.94ฯƒ
23 Apr 2026-0.79ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.93ฯƒ
27 Apr 2026-0.86ฯƒ
28 Apr 2026-0.66ฯƒ
29 Apr 2026-0.61ฯƒ
30 Apr 2026-0.97ฯƒ
1 May 2026-1.11ฯƒ
4 May 2026-0.94ฯƒ
5 May 2026-0.61ฯƒ
6 May 2026-0.87ฯƒ
7 May 2026-0.78ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.74ฯƒ
11 May 2026-0.76ฯƒ
12 May 2026-0.34ฯƒ
13 May 2026-0.93ฯƒ
14 May 2026-1.16ฯƒ
15 May 2026-1.22ฯƒ
18 May 2026-1.14ฯƒ
19 May 2026-1.15ฯƒ
20 May 2026-1.14ฯƒ
21 May 2026-1.36ฯƒ
22 May 2026-1.09ฯƒ
26 May 2026-1.27ฯƒ
27 May 2026-1.56ฯƒ
28 May 2026-1.56ฯƒ
29 May 2026-1.71ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-1.88ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-2.06ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-1.95ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-1.95ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-2.20ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-1.90ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-1.95ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-1.76ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-1.79ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.59ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-1.45ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-1.82ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-1.32ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-1.35ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-1.21ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-1.20ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-0.65ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-0.95ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.75ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-1.21ฯƒ
30 Jun 2026-0.82ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-0.78ฯƒ
2 Jul 2026-0.56ฯƒ
6 Jul 2026-0.84ฯƒ
7 Jul 2026-0.62ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-0.61ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-0.56ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.35ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-0.37ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-0.66ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-0.64ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-0.41ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.34ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-0.15ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-0.47ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-0.65ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-0.51ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.54ฯƒ
27 Jul 2026-0.48ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-0.42ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-0.67ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-0.27ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.33ฯƒ
3 Aug 2026-0.45ฯƒ
4 Aug 2026-0.42ฯƒ
5 Aug 2026-0.37ฯƒ
6 Aug 2026-0.29ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.31ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.92ฯƒ
11 Aug 20260.94ฯƒ
12 Aug 20260.79ฯƒ
13 Aug 20260.81ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.52ฯƒ
17 Aug 20260.58ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.35ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.29ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.66ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.96ฯƒ
24 Aug 20260.88ฯƒ
25 Aug 20260.98ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.94ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.97ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.09ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.81ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.73ฯƒ
2 Sep 20260.58ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.62ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.59ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.92ฯƒ
9 Sep 20261.09ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.94ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.15ฯƒ
14 Sep 20260.94ฯƒ
15 Sep 20260.71ฯƒ
16 Sep 20260.61ฯƒ
17 Sep 20260.44ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.56ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.84ฯƒ
22 Sep 20261.23ฯƒ
23 Sep 20261.37ฯƒ
24 Sep 20261.70ฯƒ
25 Sep 20261.87ฯƒ
28 Sep 20261.63ฯƒ
29 Sep 20261.48ฯƒ
30 Sep 20261.48ฯƒ
1 Oct 20261.39ฯƒ
2 Oct 20261.64ฯƒ
5 Oct 20261.78ฯƒ
6 Oct 20261.76ฯƒ
7 Oct 20261.86ฯƒ
8 Oct 20261.82ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowHBMDepressed legEROExtended legReturn differenceHBM less ERO
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-181.4%-3.7%5.1 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-10.5%-13.3%2.8 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-2.5%14.9%-17.4 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in HBM / ERO?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long HBM / short ERO

The proposed pair would look for HBM to outperform ERO, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship52/100

Stability 56/100 ยท break risk 54/100

02 ยท Separation0.84ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence46/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Look for continued repair in the weaker leg and a turn lower in the absolute spread before treating convergence as established.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that HBM is improving relative to ERO. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means HBM rises more than ERO, falls less than ERO, or rises while ERO falls. If ERO outperforms HBM, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A renewed deterioration in the weaker leg would turn repair into continued divergence.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, HBM continues to weaken relative to ERO, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long HBM / short ERO

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for HBM to outperform ERO; HBM can rise faster, fall less, or rise while ERO falls. The pair loses ground when ERO outperforms HBM.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWait for the daily turnโ€ to confirmed convergence. The clearest next checkpoint is a sustained turn from a stable or extending daily gap to a narrowing one.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study HBM alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in HBM. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and HBM-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving HBM price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study ERO alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in ERO. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in ERO must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.82ฯƒ from the centre

Example: HBM +5%, ERO +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 2.123, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioHBMERONew gap
Both rise5%2%0.82ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.60ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.59ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.08ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.84ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 2.123 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • HBM Market Dynamics is improving.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • ERO has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.471ร—

A 1% move in HBM is associated with approximately 0.471% in ERO in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.78

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability56/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life14.3 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings10

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context75/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 0 / 2

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 2 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
0.0%
Median time among resolved cases
Not observed
Largest further extension
1.09ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-05.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-23.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-21.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-15.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-04.

Research state changed

Changed from Relationship breakdown to Early repair.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-31.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-08-28.

Research state changed

Changed from Unconfirmed stretch to Relationship breakdown.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context