Basic Materials ยท Copper

SCCO relative to FCX

Southern Copper Corporation / Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc

SCCO is relatively depressed; FCX is relatively extended against their shared history.

SCCO chart โ†—FCX chart โ†—More SCCO pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 1.10ฯƒHistorical percentile 88
Relationship quality 84/100
Evidence alignment 45/100
Stability 97/10016 centre crossings
Break risk 11/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending0.57ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

FCX / SCCO gap 1.10ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, FCX is extended relative to SCCO; below zero, FCX is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, FCX is extended relative to SCCO; below zero, FCX is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateFCX / SCCO gap
29 Sep 20230.54ฯƒ
6 Oct 20230.47ฯƒ
13 Oct 20230.29ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-0.05ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-0.25ฯƒ
3 Nov 20230.00ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-0.26ฯƒ
17 Nov 20230.14ฯƒ
24 Nov 20230.45ฯƒ
1 Dec 20230.96ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.75ฯƒ
15 Dec 20231.15ฯƒ
22 Dec 20230.97ฯƒ
29 Dec 20231.14ฯƒ
5 Jan 20241.02ฯƒ
12 Jan 20240.96ฯƒ
19 Jan 20240.49ฯƒ
26 Jan 20240.56ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.83ฯƒ
9 Feb 20240.14ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.23ฯƒ
23 Feb 20240.41ฯƒ
1 Mar 20240.21ฯƒ
8 Mar 20240.33ฯƒ
15 Mar 20240.45ฯƒ
22 Mar 20240.48ฯƒ
29 Mar 20240.83ฯƒ
5 Apr 20241.19ฯƒ
12 Apr 20240.93ฯƒ
19 Apr 20241.07ฯƒ
26 Apr 20241.07ฯƒ
3 May 20241.15ฯƒ
10 May 20241.22ฯƒ
17 May 20241.43ฯƒ
24 May 20241.27ฯƒ
31 May 20241.48ฯƒ
7 Jun 20241.26ฯƒ
14 Jun 20241.15ฯƒ
21 Jun 20241.32ฯƒ
28 Jun 20241.18ฯƒ
5 Jul 20241.31ฯƒ
12 Jul 20241.35ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.76ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.46ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.04ฯƒ
9 Aug 2024-0.27ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.07ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.35ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.44ฯƒ
6 Sep 2024-0.22ฯƒ
13 Sep 20240.21ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.38ฯƒ
27 Sep 20241.11ฯƒ
4 Oct 20240.98ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.88ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.76ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.22ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.28ฯƒ
8 Nov 20240.58ฯƒ
15 Nov 20240.14ฯƒ
22 Nov 20240.38ฯƒ
29 Nov 20240.46ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-0.09ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-0.22ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-0.53ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-0.54ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-0.80ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-0.61ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-0.44ฯƒ
24 Jan 2025-1.05ฯƒ
31 Jan 2025-1.32ฯƒ
7 Feb 2025-0.94ฯƒ
14 Feb 2025-0.66ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-1.11ฯƒ
28 Feb 2025-0.83ฯƒ
7 Mar 2025-0.97ฯƒ
14 Mar 2025-0.76ฯƒ
21 Mar 2025-0.64ฯƒ
28 Mar 2025-0.75ฯƒ
4 Apr 2025-2.73ฯƒ
11 Apr 2025-1.68ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-1.92ฯƒ
25 Apr 2025-1.04ฯƒ
2 May 2025-0.77ฯƒ
9 May 2025-0.63ฯƒ
16 May 2025-0.69ฯƒ
23 May 2025-0.50ฯƒ
30 May 2025-0.55ฯƒ
6 Jun 2025-0.02ฯƒ
13 Jun 2025-0.11ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.23ฯƒ
27 Jun 20250.16ฯƒ
4 Jul 20250.45ฯƒ
11 Jul 20250.87ฯƒ
18 Jul 20250.86ฯƒ
25 Jul 20250.76ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-0.11ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-0.18ฯƒ
15 Aug 20250.12ฯƒ
22 Aug 20250.26ฯƒ
29 Aug 20250.66ฯƒ
5 Sep 20250.69ฯƒ
12 Sep 20250.07ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-0.12ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-3.21ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-2.61ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-2.09ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-2.22ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-2.14ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-2.52ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-2.96ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-2.65ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-2.36ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-2.07ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-1.76ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-1.30ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-0.95ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-0.32ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-0.52ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-0.46ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-0.39ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.18ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.43ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-0.69ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-0.30ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.12ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-0.02ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.50ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.56ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.73ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.24ฯƒ
3 Apr 20260.16ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.78ฯƒ
17 Apr 20261.15ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.02ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.52ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.04ฯƒ
15 May 20260.43ฯƒ
22 May 20260.13ฯƒ
29 May 20260.38ฯƒ
5 Jun 20260.64ฯƒ
12 Jun 20260.89ฯƒ
19 Jun 20260.83ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.52ฯƒ
3 Jul 20260.21ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.17ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.30ฯƒ
24 Jul 20260.26ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.13ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.79ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.64ฯƒ
21 Aug 20261.24ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.41ฯƒ
4 Sep 20261.19ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.10ฯƒ
18 Sep 20261.10ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

FCX 199.05SCCO 301.99
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 100.0200.0300.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateFCXSCCO
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202398.3498.19
13 Oct 202395.4695.82
20 Oct 202391.2393.24
27 Oct 202390.6795.01
3 Nov 202394.6598.63
10 Nov 202390.7095.18
17 Nov 202396.94100.68
24 Nov 202399.2099.95
1 Dec 2023105.67103.36
8 Dec 2023102.73101.62
15 Dec 2023111.75110.82
22 Dec 2023114.12117.98
29 Dec 2023114.63115.92
5 Jan 2024111.51112.57
12 Jan 2024110.65111.98
19 Jan 2024104.78109.21
26 Jan 2024107.00112.06
2 Feb 2024108.38110.08
9 Feb 2024100.97107.96
16 Feb 2024104.95113.84
23 Feb 2024105.30111.58
1 Mar 2024102.51109.72
8 Mar 2024107.70117.36
15 Mar 2024120.57140.11
22 Mar 2024121.89141.96
29 Mar 2024127.08144.89
5 Apr 2024133.70150.02
12 Apr 2024134.11156.77
19 Apr 2024134.49154.29
26 Apr 2024136.90159.07
3 May 2024136.76156.99
10 May 2024139.85161.53
17 May 2024147.01170.51
24 May 2024139.69159.84
31 May 2024142.94161.37
7 Jun 2024133.57148.13
14 Jun 2024130.42144.60
21 Jun 2024134.35148.43
28 Jun 2024131.75146.55
5 Jul 2024139.66158.81
12 Jul 2024139.01156.70
19 Jul 2024124.80141.87
26 Jul 2024122.35143.40
2 Aug 2024114.11135.33
9 Aug 2024111.61136.39
16 Aug 2024118.11142.87
23 Aug 2024121.43143.89
30 Aug 2024120.40139.90
6 Sep 2024108.76129.42
13 Sep 2024115.99135.73
20 Sep 2024121.07142.48
27 Sep 2024139.59163.49
4 Oct 2024137.44162.22
11 Oct 2024136.03161.79
18 Oct 2024131.41155.27
25 Oct 2024127.11158.73
1 Nov 2024124.35151.42
8 Nov 2024126.45149.14
15 Nov 2024116.47138.18
22 Nov 2024119.25138.88
29 Nov 2024120.56139.73
6 Dec 2024114.75139.24
13 Dec 2024113.44139.24
20 Dec 2024105.99129.51
27 Dec 2024105.99129.79
3 Jan 2025102.86128.12
10 Jan 2025106.32131.74
17 Jan 2025110.11136.62
24 Jan 2025103.52134.37
31 Jan 202598.15127.57
7 Feb 2025104.64134.68
14 Feb 2025108.06136.47
21 Feb 2025101.24130.35
28 Feb 2025101.05124.77
7 Mar 2025101.13127.62
14 Mar 2025106.36134.87
21 Mar 2025110.20140.88
28 Mar 2025105.19132.08
4 Apr 202579.81109.98
11 Apr 202591.31118.74
18 Apr 202590.48121.02
25 Apr 2025102.72132.28
2 May 2025103.40128.60
9 May 2025104.12127.51
16 May 2025104.56129.52
23 May 2025107.31131.73
30 May 2025105.82129.69
6 Jun 2025114.07136.44
13 Jun 2025112.59135.19
20 Jun 2025110.61133.33
27 Jun 2025120.65146.24
4 Jul 2025125.95151.02
11 Jul 2025127.49144.96
18 Jul 2025123.62137.58
25 Jul 2025123.87140.08
1 Aug 2025110.46130.76
8 Aug 2025115.54142.81
15 Aug 2025116.89139.29
22 Aug 2025119.43141.72
29 Aug 2025122.52139.61
5 Sep 2025127.87149.62
12 Sep 2025123.40154.27
19 Sep 2025124.01159.81
26 Sep 202598.65169.99
3 Oct 2025109.47186.39
10 Oct 2025112.81181.76
17 Oct 2025114.04188.60
24 Oct 2025114.57187.92
31 Oct 2025115.48201.66
7 Nov 2025110.25198.48
14 Nov 2025111.22192.66
21 Nov 2025110.42182.34
28 Nov 2025119.03198.69
5 Dec 2025125.18206.99
12 Dec 2025131.21209.94
19 Dec 2025136.11212.28
26 Dec 2025146.89220.42
2 Jan 2026143.81219.20
9 Jan 2026156.55251.38
16 Jan 2026163.00266.75
23 Jan 2026167.72271.69
30 Jan 2026167.22280.57
6 Feb 2026168.44294.89
13 Feb 2026174.46295.70
20 Feb 2026178.63300.20
27 Feb 2026189.01326.02
6 Mar 2026164.80276.24
13 Mar 2026156.53255.12
20 Mar 2026144.62228.06
27 Mar 2026156.14242.04
3 Apr 2026170.41265.58
10 Apr 2026188.23287.58
17 Apr 2026195.35290.21
24 Apr 2026169.86269.46
1 May 2026157.34255.65
8 May 2026171.53276.72
15 May 2026175.32268.04
22 May 2026172.48272.42
29 May 2026182.83290.06
5 Jun 2026176.32262.26
12 Jun 2026190.11287.77
19 Jun 2026190.86292.53
26 Jun 2026173.55259.67
3 Jul 2026169.43260.81
10 Jul 2026170.96266.60
17 Jul 2026162.43261.52
24 Jul 2026174.18271.85
31 Jul 2026174.26277.03
7 Aug 2026193.71301.82
14 Aug 2026185.00284.87
21 Aug 2026213.30333.31
28 Aug 2026212.71323.74
4 Sep 2026202.36306.71
11 Sep 2026197.74298.58
18 Sep 2026199.05301.99
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

FCX / SCCO gap 0.57ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, FCX is extended relative to SCCO; below zero, FCX is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, FCX is extended relative to SCCO; below zero, FCX is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateFCX / SCCO gap
22 Jan 2026-0.37ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.74ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-0.94ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-1.05ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-1.14ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-1.68ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-1.54ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-1.63ฯƒ
3 Feb 2026-2.66ฯƒ
4 Feb 2026-1.57ฯƒ
5 Feb 2026-1.85ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-2.50ฯƒ
9 Feb 2026-2.28ฯƒ
10 Feb 2026-1.66ฯƒ
11 Feb 2026-1.69ฯƒ
12 Feb 2026-2.01ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-1.72ฯƒ
17 Feb 2026-1.21ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-1.20ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-1.36ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-1.49ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-1.72ฯƒ
24 Feb 2026-1.27ฯƒ
25 Feb 2026-1.42ฯƒ
26 Feb 2026-1.63ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-2.01ฯƒ
2 Mar 2026-1.99ฯƒ
3 Mar 2026-1.62ฯƒ
4 Mar 2026-1.53ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-1.07ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-1.54ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-1.77ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-1.67ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-1.52ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-1.05ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.96ฯƒ
16 Mar 2026-1.09ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-1.06ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-0.81ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-0.65ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.31ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-0.03ฯƒ
24 Mar 20260.59ฯƒ
25 Mar 20260.06ฯƒ
26 Mar 20260.33ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.18ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-0.12ฯƒ
31 Mar 2026-0.12ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.08ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.17ฯƒ
6 Apr 20260.19ฯƒ
7 Apr 20260.42ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.42ฯƒ
9 Apr 20260.81ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.75ฯƒ
13 Apr 20260.38ฯƒ
14 Apr 20260.82ฯƒ
15 Apr 20261.51ฯƒ
16 Apr 20261.49ฯƒ
17 Apr 20261.44ฯƒ
20 Apr 20261.85ฯƒ
21 Apr 20261.82ฯƒ
22 Apr 20262.28ฯƒ
23 Apr 2026-0.30ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.24ฯƒ
27 Apr 2026-0.14ฯƒ
28 Apr 2026-0.10ฯƒ
29 Apr 2026-0.35ฯƒ
30 Apr 2026-0.43ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.88ฯƒ
4 May 2026-0.65ฯƒ
5 May 2026-0.39ฯƒ
6 May 2026-0.74ฯƒ
7 May 2026-0.30ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.61ฯƒ
11 May 20260.44ฯƒ
12 May 20260.26ฯƒ
13 May 20260.31ฯƒ
14 May 20260.35ฯƒ
15 May 20260.64ฯƒ
18 May 20260.30ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.04ฯƒ
20 May 20260.16ฯƒ
21 May 20260.07ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.12ฯƒ
26 May 2026-0.48ฯƒ
27 May 2026-0.50ฯƒ
28 May 2026-0.51ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.15ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-0.06ฯƒ
2 Jun 20260.79ฯƒ
3 Jun 20260.97ฯƒ
4 Jun 20260.94ฯƒ
5 Jun 20261.28ฯƒ
8 Jun 20261.81ฯƒ
9 Jun 20261.32ฯƒ
10 Jun 20261.48ฯƒ
11 Jun 20261.20ฯƒ
12 Jun 20261.00ฯƒ
15 Jun 20261.19ฯƒ
16 Jun 20261.05ฯƒ
17 Jun 20261.01ฯƒ
18 Jun 20260.72ฯƒ
22 Jun 20261.27ฯƒ
23 Jun 20260.94ฯƒ
24 Jun 20260.84ฯƒ
25 Jun 20260.83ฯƒ
26 Jun 20261.15ฯƒ
29 Jun 20261.21ฯƒ
30 Jun 20260.92ฯƒ
1 Jul 20260.73ฯƒ
2 Jul 20260.47ฯƒ
6 Jul 20260.24ฯƒ
7 Jul 20260.12ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-0.29ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-0.02ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.19ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-0.26ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-0.48ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-0.70ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-0.92ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.58ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-0.75ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-0.88ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-0.84ฯƒ
23 Jul 20260.20ฯƒ
24 Jul 20260.22ฯƒ
27 Jul 20260.26ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-0.11ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-0.31ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-0.17ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.20ฯƒ
3 Aug 2026-0.21ฯƒ
4 Aug 20260.03ฯƒ
5 Aug 20260.55ฯƒ
6 Aug 20260.60ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.40ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.58ฯƒ
11 Aug 20260.27ฯƒ
12 Aug 20260.34ฯƒ
13 Aug 20260.37ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.61ฯƒ
17 Aug 20260.39ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.16ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.32ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.59ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.46ฯƒ
24 Aug 20261.00ฯƒ
25 Aug 20261.07ฯƒ
26 Aug 20261.42ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.98ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.06ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.93ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.68ฯƒ
2 Sep 20260.86ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.94ฯƒ
4 Sep 20261.09ฯƒ
8 Sep 20261.25ฯƒ
9 Sep 20261.05ฯƒ
10 Sep 20261.11ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.14ฯƒ
14 Sep 20261.16ฯƒ
15 Sep 20261.05ฯƒ
16 Sep 20260.94ฯƒ
17 Sep 20260.76ฯƒ
18 Sep 20261.04ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.98ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.79ฯƒ
23 Sep 20260.68ฯƒ
24 Sep 20260.55ฯƒ
25 Sep 20260.36ฯƒ
28 Sep 20260.39ฯƒ
29 Sep 20260.00ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-0.28ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-0.14ฯƒ
2 Oct 20260.09ฯƒ
5 Oct 20260.31ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.41ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.59ฯƒ
8 Oct 20260.57ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowSCCODepressed legFCXExtended legReturn differenceSCCO less FCX
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-181.1%0.7%0.5 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-9.4%-6.7%-2.7 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-183.2%4.3%-1.1 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in SCCO / FCX?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long SCCO / short FCX

The proposed pair would look for SCCO to outperform FCX, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship84/100

Stability 97/100 ยท break risk 11/100

02 ยท Separation1.10ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence45/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Look for continued repair in the weaker leg and a turn lower in the absolute spread before treating convergence as established.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that SCCO is improving relative to FCX. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means SCCO rises more than FCX, falls less than FCX, or rises while FCX falls. If FCX outperforms SCCO, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A renewed deterioration in the weaker leg would turn repair into continued divergence.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, SCCO continues to weaken relative to FCX, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long SCCO / short FCX

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for SCCO to outperform FCX; SCCO can rise faster, fall less, or rise while FCX falls. The pair loses ground when FCX outperforms SCCO.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWait for the daily turnโ€ to confirmed convergence. The clearest next checkpoint is a sustained turn from a stable or extending daily gap to a narrowing one.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study SCCO alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in SCCO. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and SCCO-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving SCCO price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study FCX alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in FCX. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in FCX must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

1.00ฯƒ from the centre

Example: SCCO +5%, FCX +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.725, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioSCCOFCXNew gap
Both rise5%2%1.00ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.64ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.55ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.65ฯƒ
Current distance: 1.10ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.725 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • SCCO Market Dynamics is improving.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • FCX has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.580ร—

A 1% move in SCCO is associated with approximately 0.580% in FCX in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.81

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability97/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life6.8 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings16

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context100/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 3

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 3 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
33.3%
Median time among resolved cases
12.0 weeks
Largest further extension
0.82ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-21.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-15.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-14.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-08-31.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-08-28.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context