Consumer Cyclical ยท Packaging & Containers

SLGN relative to BALL

Silgan Holdings Inc / Ball Corporation

SLGN is relatively depressed; BALL is relatively extended against their shared history.

SLGN chart โ†—BALL chart โ†—More SLGN pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 0.86ฯƒHistorical percentile 74
Relationship quality 47/100
Evidence alignment 22/100
Stability 8/1009 centre crossings
Break risk 72/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending0.84ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

BALL / SLGN gap 0.86ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, BALL is extended relative to SLGN; below zero, BALL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, BALL is extended relative to SLGN; below zero, BALL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateBALL / SLGN gap
29 Sep 2023-1.37ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-1.99ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-2.38ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-2.39ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-1.75ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-1.08ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-1.47ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-0.87ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.54ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-0.20ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.01ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.09ฯƒ
22 Dec 2023-0.15ฯƒ
29 Dec 2023-0.09ฯƒ
5 Jan 2024-0.10ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-0.22ฯƒ
19 Jan 2024-0.34ฯƒ
26 Jan 2024-0.09ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.22ฯƒ
9 Feb 20240.18ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.65ฯƒ
23 Feb 20240.72ฯƒ
1 Mar 20241.00ฯƒ
8 Mar 20241.13ฯƒ
15 Mar 20240.94ฯƒ
22 Mar 20241.22ฯƒ
29 Mar 20241.27ฯƒ
5 Apr 20241.17ฯƒ
12 Apr 20241.05ฯƒ
19 Apr 20240.98ฯƒ
26 Apr 20241.65ฯƒ
3 May 20241.51ฯƒ
10 May 20241.54ฯƒ
17 May 20241.68ฯƒ
24 May 20241.53ฯƒ
31 May 20241.59ฯƒ
7 Jun 20241.52ฯƒ
14 Jun 20241.25ฯƒ
21 Jun 20240.47ฯƒ
28 Jun 20240.44ฯƒ
5 Jul 20240.42ฯƒ
12 Jul 20240.49ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.49ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.74ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.86ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.57ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.70ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.83ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.70ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.84ฯƒ
13 Sep 20241.07ฯƒ
20 Sep 20241.09ฯƒ
27 Sep 20241.25ฯƒ
4 Oct 20241.05ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.86ฯƒ
18 Oct 20241.19ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.79ฯƒ
1 Nov 2024-0.01ฯƒ
8 Nov 20240.16ฯƒ
15 Nov 20240.26ฯƒ
22 Nov 20240.32ฯƒ
29 Nov 20240.34ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-0.35ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-0.16ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-0.48ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-0.49ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-0.74ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-1.08ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-0.74ฯƒ
24 Jan 2025-0.62ฯƒ
31 Jan 2025-0.57ฯƒ
7 Feb 2025-1.44ฯƒ
14 Feb 2025-1.55ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-1.30ฯƒ
28 Feb 2025-1.06ฯƒ
7 Mar 2025-0.72ฯƒ
14 Mar 2025-1.04ฯƒ
21 Mar 2025-1.26ฯƒ
28 Mar 2025-1.15ฯƒ
4 Apr 2025-1.59ฯƒ
11 Apr 2025-1.72ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-1.86ฯƒ
25 Apr 2025-1.33ฯƒ
2 May 2025-1.23ฯƒ
9 May 2025-1.11ฯƒ
16 May 2025-0.88ฯƒ
23 May 2025-1.20ฯƒ
30 May 2025-0.90ฯƒ
6 Jun 2025-0.82ฯƒ
13 Jun 2025-0.71ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.40ฯƒ
27 Jun 2025-0.38ฯƒ
4 Jul 2025-0.07ฯƒ
11 Jul 2025-0.09ฯƒ
18 Jul 2025-0.17ฯƒ
25 Jul 20250.00ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-0.01ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-0.54ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-0.58ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-0.62ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-0.80ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-1.02ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-0.93ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-1.35ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-1.19ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-1.06ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-1.63ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-1.43ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-1.20ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-1.53ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-1.13ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-1.39ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-1.03ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-1.09ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-1.11ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-0.82ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-0.65ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-0.54ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-0.43ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-0.10ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-0.03ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.16ฯƒ
30 Jan 20260.08ฯƒ
6 Feb 20261.33ฯƒ
13 Feb 20261.45ฯƒ
20 Feb 20261.35ฯƒ
27 Feb 20261.44ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.94ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.98ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.32ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.66ฯƒ
3 Apr 20260.72ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.99ฯƒ
17 Apr 20261.29ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.94ฯƒ
1 May 20260.91ฯƒ
8 May 20260.47ฯƒ
15 May 20260.07ฯƒ
22 May 20260.23ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.06ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.29ฯƒ
12 Jun 20260.22ฯƒ
19 Jun 20260.32ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.79ฯƒ
3 Jul 20261.02ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.81ฯƒ
17 Jul 20260.89ฯƒ
24 Jul 20261.08ฯƒ
31 Jul 20261.42ฯƒ
7 Aug 20261.16ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.89ฯƒ
21 Aug 20261.15ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.19ฯƒ
4 Sep 20261.08ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.76ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.86ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

BALL 125.54SLGN 90.46
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 100.0120.0140.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateBALLSLGN
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202392.6795.45
13 Oct 202388.5593.46
20 Oct 202388.6794.80
27 Oct 202394.5491.46
3 Nov 2023102.8998.31
10 Nov 202398.0594.90
17 Nov 2023105.1897.80
24 Nov 2023109.0497.66
1 Dec 2023113.5999.83
8 Dec 2023115.9598.59
15 Dec 2023117.80103.02
22 Dec 2023115.32105.91
29 Dec 2023115.97105.42
5 Jan 2024115.70104.39
12 Jan 2024113.63101.18
19 Jan 2024111.95100.53
26 Jan 2024115.40102.04
2 Feb 2024119.92105.42
9 Feb 2024119.29104.46
16 Feb 2024125.18102.41
23 Feb 2024126.79106.23
1 Mar 2024130.00101.85
8 Mar 2024132.00103.13
15 Mar 2024129.60104.16
22 Mar 2024133.92105.75
29 Mar 2024136.23113.61
5 Apr 2024134.43112.51
12 Apr 2024132.51111.06
19 Apr 2024131.36110.90
26 Apr 2024141.16109.87
3 May 2024138.72108.28
10 May 2024139.87111.93
17 May 2024141.79110.48
24 May 2024139.30109.31
31 May 2024140.42110.55
7 Jun 2024138.87107.92
14 Jun 2024133.88103.64
21 Jun 2024123.03103.97
28 Jun 2024121.7399.44
5 Jul 2024120.9697.06
12 Jul 2024123.32104.02
19 Jul 2024123.80106.48
26 Jul 2024128.28112.40
2 Aug 2024131.35120.41
9 Aug 2024126.36115.01
16 Aug 2024128.63117.71
23 Aug 2024130.94120.44
30 Aug 2024129.42122.79
6 Sep 2024130.82119.02
13 Sep 2024134.28119.14
20 Sep 2024134.91121.12
27 Sep 2024137.27121.55
4 Oct 2024134.32121.47
11 Oct 2024131.51121.59
18 Oct 2024136.82123.67
25 Oct 2024130.27120.01
1 Nov 2024120.06124.12
8 Nov 2024122.60126.47
15 Nov 2024123.95126.26
22 Nov 2024125.86133.29
29 Nov 2024126.47135.64
6 Dec 2024116.56131.01
13 Dec 2024118.87129.68
20 Dec 2024113.89123.44
27 Dec 2024113.95124.31
3 Jan 2025110.28120.67
10 Jan 2025106.15119.51
17 Jan 2025110.81124.46
24 Jan 2025112.26124.29
31 Jan 2025113.69130.16
7 Feb 2025103.01127.15
14 Feb 2025101.75126.99
21 Feb 2025104.81128.69
28 Feb 2025107.54128.48
7 Mar 2025111.17125.40
14 Mar 2025106.32117.38
21 Mar 2025103.86118.21
28 Mar 2025105.44120.44
4 Apr 202599.58113.58
11 Apr 202598.53116.24
18 Apr 202597.08117.12
25 Apr 2025103.59122.18
2 May 2025105.84130.28
9 May 2025106.81127.47
16 May 2025110.17131.70
23 May 2025106.05129.33
30 May 2025109.78130.80
6 Jun 2025110.51129.19
13 Jun 2025111.82129.09
20 Jun 2025115.65128.59
27 Jun 2025116.02129.69
4 Jul 2025120.79135.10
11 Jul 2025119.93131.09
18 Jul 2025118.98131.59
25 Jul 2025121.37132.83
1 Aug 2025117.52108.90
8 Aug 2025111.19110.54
15 Aug 2025110.75110.81
22 Aug 2025110.51112.55
29 Aug 2025108.27111.85
5 Sep 2025105.18108.15
12 Sep 2025105.70105.30
19 Sep 2025100.58102.48
26 Sep 2025102.17101.76
3 Oct 2025103.76102.38
10 Oct 202597.23100.85
17 Oct 202599.79103.34
24 Oct 2025102.89106.74
31 Oct 202597.0592.47
7 Nov 2025101.1391.46
14 Nov 202598.2890.96
21 Nov 2025102.9795.08
28 Nov 2025102.2794.91
5 Dec 2025101.6593.11
12 Dec 2025105.5596.35
19 Dec 2025107.8798.30
26 Dec 2025109.1898.35
2 Jan 2026110.6199.27
9 Jan 2026115.31102.83
16 Jan 2026116.27103.14
23 Jan 2026118.92104.37
30 Jan 2026117.90103.84
6 Feb 2026137.81117.65
13 Feb 2026139.51117.07
20 Feb 2026137.93116.52
27 Feb 2026139.17115.63
6 Mar 2026130.03106.87
13 Mar 2026129.32100.16
20 Mar 2026118.6592.05
27 Mar 2026123.2592.10
3 Apr 2026124.7095.48
10 Apr 2026129.53100.32
17 Apr 2026134.08101.55
24 Apr 2026127.5194.37
1 May 2026127.5396.06
8 May 2026121.6997.37
15 May 2026114.7988.59
22 May 2026117.5191.68
29 May 2026113.6890.84
5 Jun 2026110.4589.10
12 Jun 2026118.9399.51
19 Jun 2026120.47101.31
26 Jun 2026128.97112.45
3 Jul 2026132.31112.84
10 Jul 2026128.76109.41
17 Jul 2026130.89114.76
24 Jul 2026133.25112.94
31 Jul 2026135.0396.76
7 Aug 2026132.01100.94
14 Aug 2026128.62102.81
21 Aug 2026132.30102.59
28 Aug 2026132.68101.89
4 Sep 2026130.80100.17
11 Sep 2026125.0293.96
18 Sep 2026125.5490.46
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

BALL / SLGN gap 0.84ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, BALL is extended relative to SLGN; below zero, BALL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, BALL is extended relative to SLGN; below zero, BALL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateBALL / SLGN gap
22 Jan 2026-2.49ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-2.06ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-2.10ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-2.01ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-2.27ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-2.23ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-2.22ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-2.31ฯƒ
3 Feb 2026-0.28ฯƒ
4 Feb 2026-0.20ฯƒ
5 Feb 20260.10ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.21ฯƒ
9 Feb 20260.33ฯƒ
10 Feb 20260.73ฯƒ
11 Feb 20260.65ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.37ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.59ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.41ฯƒ
18 Feb 20260.32ฯƒ
19 Feb 20260.28ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.35ฯƒ
23 Feb 20260.61ฯƒ
24 Feb 20260.34ฯƒ
25 Feb 20260.30ฯƒ
26 Feb 20260.64ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.68ฯƒ
2 Mar 20260.36ฯƒ
3 Mar 20260.15ฯƒ
4 Mar 20260.18ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-0.19ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.07ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-0.06ฯƒ
10 Mar 20260.10ฯƒ
11 Mar 20260.19ฯƒ
12 Mar 20260.59ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.61ฯƒ
16 Mar 20260.37ฯƒ
17 Mar 20260.22ฯƒ
18 Mar 20260.00ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-0.02ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.54ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-0.15ฯƒ
24 Mar 20260.08ฯƒ
25 Mar 20260.63ฯƒ
26 Mar 20260.36ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.43ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-0.04ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.13ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.34ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.28ฯƒ
6 Apr 20260.18ฯƒ
7 Apr 20260.00ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.60ฯƒ
9 Apr 20260.78ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.63ฯƒ
13 Apr 20261.05ฯƒ
14 Apr 20261.13ฯƒ
15 Apr 20261.09ฯƒ
16 Apr 20261.28ฯƒ
17 Apr 20261.36ฯƒ
20 Apr 20261.26ฯƒ
21 Apr 20261.30ฯƒ
22 Apr 20261.43ฯƒ
23 Apr 20261.51ฯƒ
24 Apr 20261.00ฯƒ
27 Apr 20260.87ฯƒ
28 Apr 20261.12ฯƒ
29 Apr 20260.39ฯƒ
30 Apr 20260.41ฯƒ
1 May 20260.78ฯƒ
4 May 20260.74ฯƒ
5 May 2026-0.97ฯƒ
6 May 2026-0.46ฯƒ
7 May 2026-0.65ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.60ฯƒ
11 May 2026-0.74ฯƒ
12 May 2026-0.72ฯƒ
13 May 2026-1.17ฯƒ
14 May 2026-0.91ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.90ฯƒ
18 May 2026-0.92ฯƒ
19 May 2026-1.10ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.66ฯƒ
21 May 2026-0.84ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.74ฯƒ
26 May 2026-0.75ฯƒ
27 May 2026-0.76ฯƒ
28 May 2026-0.89ฯƒ
29 May 2026-1.47ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-1.54ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-1.63ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-1.87ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-1.95ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-1.96ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-2.12ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-2.05ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-2.01ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-1.54ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.46ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-1.24ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-1.15ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-1.42ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-1.36ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-1.09ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-0.33ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-0.83ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-0.85ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.92ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-0.84ฯƒ
30 Jun 2026-0.71ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-0.91ฯƒ
2 Jul 2026-0.31ฯƒ
6 Jul 2026-0.43ฯƒ
7 Jul 2026-0.27ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-0.93ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-0.63ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.62ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-0.77ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-1.06ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-1.16ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-0.68ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.80ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-0.69ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-0.44ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-0.50ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-0.53ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.14ฯƒ
27 Jul 20260.15ฯƒ
28 Jul 20260.64ฯƒ
29 Jul 20261.72ฯƒ
30 Jul 20262.00ฯƒ
31 Jul 20262.17ฯƒ
3 Aug 20261.84ฯƒ
4 Aug 20260.99ฯƒ
5 Aug 20260.79ฯƒ
6 Aug 20260.98ฯƒ
7 Aug 20261.06ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.87ฯƒ
11 Aug 20261.00ฯƒ
12 Aug 20260.84ฯƒ
13 Aug 20260.30ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.16ฯƒ
17 Aug 20260.13ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.49ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.86ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.88ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.89ฯƒ
24 Aug 20261.19ฯƒ
25 Aug 20261.01ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.90ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.96ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.05ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.90ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.87ฯƒ
2 Sep 20261.11ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.91ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.90ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.80ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.80ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.50ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.55ฯƒ
14 Sep 20260.76ฯƒ
15 Sep 20261.09ฯƒ
16 Sep 20261.15ฯƒ
17 Sep 20261.12ฯƒ
18 Sep 20261.13ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.98ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.97ฯƒ
23 Sep 20260.57ฯƒ
24 Sep 20260.20ฯƒ
25 Sep 20260.12ฯƒ
28 Sep 20260.24ฯƒ
29 Sep 20260.33ฯƒ
30 Sep 20260.17ฯƒ
1 Oct 20260.37ฯƒ
2 Oct 20260.28ฯƒ
5 Oct 20260.57ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.63ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.71ฯƒ
8 Oct 20260.84ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowSLGNDepressed legBALLExtended legReturn differenceSLGN less BALL
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-3.7%0.4%-4.1 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-11.8%-5.1%-6.7 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-10.7%4.2%-14.9 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in SLGN / BALL?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long SLGN / short BALL

The proposed pair would look for SLGN to outperform BALL, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship47/100

Stability 8/100 ยท break risk 72/100

02 ยท Separation0.86ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence22/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

The cleaner confirmation is a narrowing spread led by weakness in the extended leg rather than strength in both securities.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that SLGN is improving relative to BALL. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means SLGN rises more than BALL, falls less than BALL, or rises while BALL falls. If BALL outperforms SLGN, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A fresh strengthening in the extended leg can prolong the separation and increase short-side risk.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, SLGN continues to weaken relative to BALL, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long SLGN / short BALL

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for SLGN to outperform BALL; SLGN can rise faster, fall less, or rise while BALL falls. The pair loses ground when BALL outperforms SLGN.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWait for the daily turnโ€ to confirmed convergence. The clearest next checkpoint is a sustained turn from a stable or extending daily gap to a narrowing one.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study SLGN alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in SLGN. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and SLGN-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving SLGN price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study BALL alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in BALL. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in BALL must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.97ฯƒ from the centre

Example: SLGN +5%, BALL +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 6.365, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioSLGNBALLNew gap
Both rise5%2%0.97ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.42ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.54ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.17ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.86ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 6.365 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • BALL Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • BALL has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.157ร—

A 1% move in SLGN is associated with approximately 0.157% in BALL in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.57

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability8/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life13.6 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings9

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context75/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 3 / 3

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 3 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
100.0%
Median time among resolved cases
6.0 weeks
Largest further extension
0.13ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-23.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-18.

Research state changed

Changed from Unconfirmed stretch to Leader rollover.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-15.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-14.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-10.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-09.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-04.

Research state changed

Changed from Information break to Unconfirmed stretch.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-03.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-02.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context