Consumer Cyclical ยท Packaging & Containers

TRS relative to CCK

TriMas Corporation / Crown Holdings Inc

TRS is relatively depressed; CCK is relatively extended against their shared history.

TRS chart โ†—CCK chart โ†—More TRS pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 0.61ฯƒHistorical percentile 75
Relationship quality 70/100
Evidence alignment 25/100
Stability 94/10016 centre crossings
Break risk 24/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap stable0.23ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

CCK / TRS gap 0.61ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, CCK is extended relative to TRS; below zero, CCK is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, CCK is extended relative to TRS; below zero, CCK is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateCCK / TRS gap
29 Sep 20230.20ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-0.54ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-0.97ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-0.98ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-0.85ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-0.51ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-0.69ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-0.44ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.51ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-0.11ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.04ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.10ฯƒ
22 Dec 20230.42ฯƒ
29 Dec 20230.59ฯƒ
5 Jan 20240.56ฯƒ
12 Jan 20240.65ฯƒ
19 Jan 20240.50ฯƒ
26 Jan 20240.48ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.27ฯƒ
9 Feb 2024-1.88ฯƒ
16 Feb 2024-2.35ฯƒ
23 Feb 2024-1.72ฯƒ
1 Mar 2024-1.28ฯƒ
8 Mar 2024-1.32ฯƒ
15 Mar 2024-1.36ฯƒ
22 Mar 2024-1.57ฯƒ
29 Mar 2024-1.52ฯƒ
5 Apr 2024-1.76ฯƒ
12 Apr 2024-1.52ฯƒ
19 Apr 2024-1.62ฯƒ
26 Apr 2024-1.27ฯƒ
3 May 2024-0.93ฯƒ
10 May 2024-0.83ฯƒ
17 May 2024-0.89ฯƒ
24 May 2024-0.95ฯƒ
31 May 2024-0.77ฯƒ
7 Jun 2024-0.95ฯƒ
14 Jun 2024-1.37ฯƒ
21 Jun 2024-1.60ฯƒ
28 Jun 2024-2.01ฯƒ
5 Jul 2024-2.31ฯƒ
12 Jul 2024-1.75ฯƒ
19 Jul 2024-1.75ฯƒ
26 Jul 2024-0.71ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.48ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.14ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.38ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.53ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.41ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.75ฯƒ
13 Sep 20240.61ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.85ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.96ฯƒ
4 Oct 20241.08ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.61ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.76ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.47ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.51ฯƒ
8 Nov 20240.40ฯƒ
15 Nov 20240.35ฯƒ
22 Nov 20240.44ฯƒ
29 Nov 20240.45ฯƒ
6 Dec 20240.07ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-0.03ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-0.38ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-0.37ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-0.63ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-0.61ฯƒ
17 Jan 20250.05ฯƒ
24 Jan 20250.12ฯƒ
31 Jan 20250.36ฯƒ
7 Feb 20250.36ฯƒ
14 Feb 20250.48ฯƒ
21 Feb 20250.70ฯƒ
28 Feb 20251.57ฯƒ
7 Mar 20250.89ฯƒ
14 Mar 20250.55ฯƒ
21 Mar 20250.37ฯƒ
28 Mar 20250.66ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.49ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.60ฯƒ
18 Apr 20250.94ฯƒ
25 Apr 20251.33ฯƒ
2 May 20251.48ฯƒ
9 May 20251.60ฯƒ
16 May 20251.77ฯƒ
23 May 20251.36ฯƒ
30 May 20251.33ฯƒ
6 Jun 20251.60ฯƒ
13 Jun 20251.40ฯƒ
20 Jun 20251.78ฯƒ
27 Jun 20251.52ฯƒ
4 Jul 20251.71ฯƒ
11 Jul 20251.60ฯƒ
18 Jul 20251.50ฯƒ
25 Jul 20250.87ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-0.32ฯƒ
8 Aug 20250.01ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-0.29ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-0.50ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-0.73ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-1.38ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-1.15ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-1.50ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-0.97ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-0.95ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-1.40ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-1.16ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-0.98ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-0.51ฯƒ
7 Nov 20250.34ฯƒ
14 Nov 20250.24ฯƒ
21 Nov 20250.10ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-0.29ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-0.05ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-0.14ฯƒ
19 Dec 20250.17ฯƒ
26 Dec 20250.11ฯƒ
2 Jan 20260.24ฯƒ
9 Jan 20260.48ฯƒ
16 Jan 20260.50ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.50ฯƒ
30 Jan 20260.54ฯƒ
6 Feb 20261.25ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.99ฯƒ
20 Feb 20261.30ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.97ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.24ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.55ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.05ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.18ฯƒ
3 Apr 20260.20ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.25ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.32ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.19ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.55ฯƒ
8 May 2026-1.02ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.94ฯƒ
22 May 2026-1.17ฯƒ
29 May 2026-1.49ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-1.46ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.06ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-1.08ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.14ฯƒ
3 Jul 20260.47ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.35ฯƒ
17 Jul 20261.06ฯƒ
24 Jul 20261.23ฯƒ
31 Jul 20261.24ฯƒ
7 Aug 20261.51ฯƒ
14 Aug 20261.53ฯƒ
21 Aug 20261.51ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.39ฯƒ
4 Sep 20261.05ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.95ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.61ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

CCK 127.50TRS 156.29
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 75.0100.0125.0150.0175.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateCCKTRS
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202392.8297.13
13 Oct 202389.6997.38
20 Oct 202388.5294.79
27 Oct 202389.8795.76
3 Nov 202394.1699.56
10 Nov 202391.1695.88
17 Nov 202394.7599.80
24 Nov 202394.0299.32
1 Dec 202399.80105.18
8 Dec 2023100.35103.73
15 Dec 2023102.09106.48
22 Dec 2023104.42105.59
29 Dec 2023104.39102.47
5 Jan 2024103.41100.98
12 Jan 2024102.9898.39
19 Jan 2024102.74100.61
26 Jan 2024103.20101.91
2 Feb 2024100.93100.73
9 Feb 202484.78101.14
16 Feb 202481.91102.03
23 Feb 202487.19104.54
1 Mar 202486.5195.15
8 Mar 202488.39100.30
15 Mar 202488.38100.99
22 Mar 202488.19104.27
29 Mar 202490.13108.32
5 Apr 202487.90107.07
12 Apr 202487.92102.73
19 Apr 202488.33105.61
26 Apr 202491.65107.31
3 May 202493.76106.21
10 May 202495.56108.77
17 May 202496.55112.26
24 May 202495.15109.99
31 May 202495.74108.04
7 Jun 202493.49106.01
14 Jun 202489.19103.09
21 Jun 202488.46105.40
28 Jun 202484.86103.74
5 Jul 202481.59100.57
12 Jul 202486.69103.74
19 Jul 202488.50108.37
26 Jul 202497.74111.65
2 Aug 2024100.5796.43
9 Aug 202497.9096.56
16 Aug 2024100.6498.23
23 Aug 2024102.4599.45
30 Aug 2024103.43103.72
6 Sep 2024104.5299.81
13 Sep 2024104.49102.33
20 Sep 2024107.19103.47
27 Sep 2024108.38103.92
4 Oct 2024107.2999.61
11 Oct 2024106.14105.71
18 Oct 2024111.83115.14
25 Oct 2024107.19110.71
1 Nov 2024107.26110.02
8 Nov 2024106.85111.24
15 Nov 2024103.09104.00
22 Nov 2024106.48109.74
29 Nov 2024105.65107.58
6 Dec 2024101.39105.34
13 Dec 2024100.82105.95
20 Dec 202495.2799.84
27 Dec 202495.44100.01
3 Jan 202592.4097.64
10 Jan 202590.3692.80
17 Jan 202598.1598.70
24 Jan 2025100.91103.43
31 Jan 2025100.7998.95
7 Feb 202599.7696.75
14 Feb 2025100.9997.24
21 Feb 2025100.1491.98
28 Feb 2025102.8283.60
7 Mar 2025105.2498.94
14 Mar 2025102.1798.53
21 Mar 2025100.9098.94
28 Mar 2025101.4795.18
4 Apr 202595.7786.70
11 Apr 202596.4686.37
18 Apr 202597.9584.09
25 Apr 2025102.7587.02
2 May 2025111.53100.98
9 May 2025111.5798.93
16 May 2025114.72101.88
23 May 2025111.94103.88
30 May 2025113.62107.76
6 Jun 2025115.28106.00
13 Jun 2025115.18109.56
20 Jun 2025119.53111.07
27 Jun 2025119.39115.97
4 Jul 2025124.46122.47
11 Jul 2025123.63123.04
18 Jul 2025122.54122.88
25 Jul 2025118.79128.44
1 Aug 2025113.22142.70
8 Aug 2025117.36145.36
15 Aug 2025116.30150.43
22 Aug 2025116.64156.81
29 Aug 2025114.93158.20
5 Sep 2025108.97158.45
12 Sep 2025111.48159.55
19 Sep 2025109.47163.31
26 Sep 2025112.26157.10
3 Oct 2025111.52154.27
10 Oct 2025104.94146.62
17 Oct 2025108.52150.92
24 Oct 2025114.32163.44
31 Oct 2025112.39145.36
7 Nov 2025113.43127.64
14 Nov 2025112.64127.97
21 Nov 2025112.79131.57
28 Nov 2025112.28139.56
5 Dec 2025113.58137.14
12 Dec 2025113.44138.90
19 Dec 2025118.27143.90
26 Dec 2025119.32148.04
2 Jan 2026120.81148.65
9 Jan 2026121.21143.65
16 Jan 2026120.88142.22
23 Jan 2026120.51141.32
30 Jan 2026121.39142.42
6 Feb 2026130.90147.91
13 Feb 2026128.47148.57
20 Feb 2026133.12151.89
27 Feb 2026132.89160.24
6 Mar 2026122.70153.52
13 Mar 2026121.96143.68
20 Mar 2026114.53139.58
27 Mar 2026115.86146.26
3 Apr 2026119.56146.30
10 Apr 2026124.43158.03
17 Apr 2026124.66156.80
24 Apr 2026117.66151.39
1 May 2026116.52157.99
8 May 2026117.73175.34
15 May 2026112.18156.09
22 May 2026112.92164.66
29 May 2026111.01167.99
5 Jun 2026109.03160.77
12 Jun 2026115.53169.59
19 Jun 2026118.55179.65
26 Jun 2026129.16182.97
3 Jul 2026131.89172.25
10 Jul 2026129.77169.79
17 Jul 2026136.46166.80
24 Jul 2026137.24164.13
31 Jul 2026137.20163.72
7 Aug 2026140.91165.16
14 Aug 2026138.96159.82
21 Aug 2026139.49161.63
28 Aug 2026138.29162.24
4 Sep 2026134.46162.04
11 Sep 2026131.51157.36
18 Sep 2026127.50156.29
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

CCK / TRS gap 0.23ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, CCK is extended relative to TRS; below zero, CCK is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, CCK is extended relative to TRS; below zero, CCK is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateCCK / TRS gap
22 Jan 2026-0.52ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.31ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-0.25ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-0.33ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-0.26ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-0.25ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.23ฯƒ
2 Feb 20260.18ฯƒ
3 Feb 20260.67ฯƒ
4 Feb 20261.12ฯƒ
5 Feb 20261.01ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.76ฯƒ
9 Feb 20260.43ฯƒ
10 Feb 20260.58ฯƒ
11 Feb 20260.59ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.46ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.48ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.40ฯƒ
18 Feb 20260.85ฯƒ
19 Feb 20260.74ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.93ฯƒ
23 Feb 20261.01ฯƒ
24 Feb 20261.11ฯƒ
25 Feb 20260.92ฯƒ
26 Feb 20260.95ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.78ฯƒ
2 Mar 20261.04ฯƒ
3 Mar 20260.62ฯƒ
4 Mar 20260.34ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-0.02ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.25ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-0.30ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-0.38ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-0.34ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-0.34ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.18ฯƒ
16 Mar 2026-0.08ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-0.13ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-0.59ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-0.65ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.01ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-0.75ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-0.74ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-0.54ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-0.72ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.95ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-1.14ฯƒ
31 Mar 2026-0.88ฯƒ
1 Apr 2026-0.40ฯƒ
2 Apr 2026-0.51ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-0.43ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-0.79ฯƒ
8 Apr 2026-0.05ฯƒ
9 Apr 2026-0.01ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.12ฯƒ
13 Apr 2026-0.02ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-0.12ฯƒ
15 Apr 2026-0.34ฯƒ
16 Apr 2026-0.40ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.07ฯƒ
20 Apr 2026-0.47ฯƒ
21 Apr 2026-0.52ฯƒ
22 Apr 2026-0.66ฯƒ
23 Apr 2026-0.52ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.81ฯƒ
27 Apr 2026-0.79ฯƒ
28 Apr 2026-0.94ฯƒ
29 Apr 2026-1.06ฯƒ
30 Apr 2026-1.22ฯƒ
1 May 2026-1.05ฯƒ
4 May 2026-1.24ฯƒ
5 May 2026-1.44ฯƒ
6 May 2026-1.10ฯƒ
7 May 2026-1.12ฯƒ
8 May 2026-1.15ฯƒ
11 May 2026-1.20ฯƒ
12 May 2026-1.20ฯƒ
13 May 2026-1.13ฯƒ
14 May 2026-1.22ฯƒ
15 May 2026-1.56ฯƒ
18 May 2026-1.42ฯƒ
19 May 2026-1.66ฯƒ
20 May 2026-1.45ฯƒ
21 May 2026-1.57ฯƒ
22 May 2026-1.60ฯƒ
26 May 2026-1.45ฯƒ
27 May 2026-1.46ฯƒ
28 May 2026-1.56ฯƒ
29 May 2026-1.88ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-1.91ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-1.74ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-1.86ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-2.11ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-2.04ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-2.28ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-1.77ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-1.80ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-1.51ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.34ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-1.20ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-0.93ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-0.99ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-1.11ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-0.90ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-0.54ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-0.09ฯƒ
25 Jun 20260.02ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.07ฯƒ
29 Jun 20260.14ฯƒ
30 Jun 20260.20ฯƒ
1 Jul 20260.23ฯƒ
2 Jul 20260.55ฯƒ
6 Jul 20260.58ฯƒ
7 Jul 20260.51ฯƒ
8 Jul 20260.10ฯƒ
9 Jul 20260.12ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.35ฯƒ
13 Jul 20260.18ฯƒ
14 Jul 20260.14ฯƒ
15 Jul 20260.42ฯƒ
16 Jul 20261.07ฯƒ
17 Jul 20261.11ฯƒ
20 Jul 20260.83ฯƒ
21 Jul 20261.21ฯƒ
22 Jul 20261.05ฯƒ
23 Jul 20260.80ฯƒ
24 Jul 20261.22ฯƒ
27 Jul 20261.26ฯƒ
28 Jul 20261.61ฯƒ
29 Jul 20261.49ฯƒ
30 Jul 20261.40ฯƒ
31 Jul 20261.23ฯƒ
3 Aug 20261.44ฯƒ
4 Aug 20261.64ฯƒ
5 Aug 20261.68ฯƒ
6 Aug 20261.62ฯƒ
7 Aug 20261.58ฯƒ
10 Aug 20261.55ฯƒ
11 Aug 20261.53ฯƒ
12 Aug 20261.65ฯƒ
13 Aug 20261.40ฯƒ
14 Aug 20261.46ฯƒ
17 Aug 20261.12ฯƒ
18 Aug 20261.21ฯƒ
19 Aug 20261.24ฯƒ
20 Aug 20261.26ฯƒ
21 Aug 20261.49ฯƒ
24 Aug 20261.51ฯƒ
25 Aug 20261.58ฯƒ
26 Aug 20261.40ฯƒ
27 Aug 20261.22ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.36ฯƒ
31 Aug 20261.16ฯƒ
1 Sep 20261.18ฯƒ
2 Sep 20261.21ฯƒ
3 Sep 20261.05ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.96ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.77ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.61ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.75ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.72ฯƒ
14 Sep 20260.69ฯƒ
15 Sep 20260.66ฯƒ
16 Sep 20260.61ฯƒ
17 Sep 20260.44ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.29ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.24ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.31ฯƒ
23 Sep 20260.29ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-0.26ฯƒ
25 Sep 20260.08ฯƒ
28 Sep 2026-0.02ฯƒ
29 Sep 2026-0.16ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-0.24ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-0.14ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-0.19ฯƒ
5 Oct 2026-0.11ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.04ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.01ฯƒ
8 Oct 20260.23ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowTRSDepressed legCCKExtended legReturn differenceTRS less CCK
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-0.7%-3.1%2.4 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-3.3%-8.6%5.3 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-13.0%7.5%-20.5 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in TRS / CCK?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

No active pair setup

Keep TRS / CCK on routine watch

The two securities are not far enough apart, with enough confirmation, to support a useful convergence case.

01 ยท Relationship70/100

Stability 94/100 ยท break risk 24/100

02 ยท Separation0.61ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence25/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap stable

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Keep the pair on the relationship map and wait for a meaningful, evidence-backed separation.

A future case would need an unusual separation, a dependable relationship and evidence favouring TRS over CCK.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

There is no reason to force a long or short leg while the relationship remains near normal.

A favourable relative move means TRS rises more than CCK, falls less than CCK, or rises while CCK falls. If CCK outperforms TRS, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

There is no current dislocation edge; transaction costs can dominate small spread movements.

There is no active case to invalidate because no relative-value position is currently supported.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long TRS / short CCK

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for TRS to outperform CCK; TRS can rise faster, fall less, or rise while CCK falls. The pair loses ground when CCK outperforms TRS.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œNo setup at presentโ€ to confirmed convergence. A new, unusual separation would need to develop while the historical relationship remains dependable.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study TRS alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in TRS. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and TRS-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving TRS price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study CCK alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in CCK. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in CCK must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.57ฯƒ from the centre

Example: TRS +5%, CCK +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 2.131, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioTRSCCKNew gap
Both rise5%2%0.57ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.10ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.07ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.14ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.61ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 2.131 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • CCK Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • At least one leg has an earnings date inside the next 30 days, which can overwhelm historical spread behaviour.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.469ร—

A 1% move in TRS is associated with approximately 0.469% in CCK in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.41

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability94/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life9.0 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings16

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context66/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 1

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 1 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
100.0%
Median time among resolved cases
6.0 weeks
Largest further extension
0.08ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-02.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-30.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-18.

Research state changed

Changed from Leader rollover to Balanced relationship.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-17.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-16.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-28.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-28.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context