Consumer Cyclical ยท Packaging & Containers

SON relative to BALL

Sonoco Products Company / Ball Corporation

SON is relatively depressed; BALL is relatively extended against their shared history.

SON chart โ†—BALL chart โ†—More SON pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 0.64ฯƒHistorical percentile 72
Relationship quality 77/100
Evidence alignment 33/100
Stability 72/10027 centre crossings
Break risk 22/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap narrowing0.21ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

BALL / SON gap 0.64ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, BALL is extended relative to SON; below zero, BALL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -4.0ฯƒ-2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, BALL is extended relative to SON; below zero, BALL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateBALL / SON gap
29 Sep 2023-2.37ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-3.19ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-3.72ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-3.27ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-2.32ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-2.14ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-2.67ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-1.96ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-1.54ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-1.07ฯƒ
8 Dec 2023-0.49ฯƒ
15 Dec 2023-0.44ฯƒ
22 Dec 2023-0.91ฯƒ
29 Dec 2023-0.78ฯƒ
5 Jan 2024-1.24ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-1.29ฯƒ
19 Jan 2024-1.56ฯƒ
26 Jan 2024-1.34ฯƒ
2 Feb 2024-0.54ฯƒ
9 Feb 2024-0.61ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.32ฯƒ
23 Feb 20240.12ฯƒ
1 Mar 20240.51ฯƒ
8 Mar 20240.55ฯƒ
15 Mar 20240.41ฯƒ
22 Mar 20240.97ฯƒ
29 Mar 20240.92ฯƒ
5 Apr 20240.87ฯƒ
12 Apr 20240.85ฯƒ
19 Apr 20240.57ฯƒ
26 Apr 20241.68ฯƒ
3 May 20241.38ฯƒ
10 May 20240.95ฯƒ
17 May 20240.89ฯƒ
24 May 20240.58ฯƒ
31 May 20240.54ฯƒ
7 Jun 20240.71ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.69ฯƒ
21 Jun 2024-0.12ฯƒ
28 Jun 20240.81ฯƒ
5 Jul 20241.24ฯƒ
12 Jul 20240.95ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.77ฯƒ
26 Jul 20241.15ฯƒ
2 Aug 20241.64ฯƒ
9 Aug 20241.60ฯƒ
16 Aug 20241.41ฯƒ
23 Aug 20241.04ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.25ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.72ฯƒ
13 Sep 20241.07ฯƒ
20 Sep 20241.25ฯƒ
27 Sep 20241.55ฯƒ
4 Oct 20241.35ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.97ฯƒ
18 Oct 20241.78ฯƒ
25 Oct 20241.08ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.40ฯƒ
8 Nov 20240.68ฯƒ
15 Nov 20240.96ฯƒ
22 Nov 20240.97ฯƒ
29 Nov 20240.82ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-0.15ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-0.04ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-0.05ฯƒ
27 Dec 20240.09ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-0.14ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-0.16ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-0.02ฯƒ
24 Jan 2025-0.02ฯƒ
31 Jan 20250.36ฯƒ
7 Feb 2025-0.82ฯƒ
14 Feb 2025-1.19ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-0.56ฯƒ
28 Feb 2025-0.58ฯƒ
7 Mar 2025-0.11ฯƒ
14 Mar 2025-0.19ฯƒ
21 Mar 2025-0.77ฯƒ
28 Mar 2025-0.57ฯƒ
4 Apr 2025-0.61ฯƒ
11 Apr 2025-0.64ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-0.98ฯƒ
25 Apr 2025-0.69ฯƒ
2 May 2025-0.01ฯƒ
9 May 20250.07ฯƒ
16 May 2025-0.03ฯƒ
23 May 2025-0.38ฯƒ
30 May 20250.13ฯƒ
6 Jun 20250.34ฯƒ
13 Jun 20250.68ฯƒ
20 Jun 20251.50ฯƒ
27 Jun 20251.34ฯƒ
4 Jul 20251.20ฯƒ
11 Jul 20251.16ฯƒ
18 Jul 20251.15ฯƒ
25 Jul 20250.82ฯƒ
1 Aug 20251.40ฯƒ
8 Aug 20250.20ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-0.06ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-0.41ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-0.62ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-0.76ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-1.08ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-1.39ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-0.56ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-0.19ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-0.04ฯƒ
17 Oct 20250.19ฯƒ
24 Oct 20250.52ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-0.35ฯƒ
7 Nov 20250.19ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-0.43ฯƒ
21 Nov 20250.18ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-0.23ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-0.11ฯƒ
12 Dec 20250.12ฯƒ
19 Dec 20250.19ฯƒ
26 Dec 20250.31ฯƒ
2 Jan 20260.25ฯƒ
9 Jan 20260.07ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-0.15ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.19ฯƒ
30 Jan 20260.21ฯƒ
6 Feb 20261.57ฯƒ
13 Feb 20261.66ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.48ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.49ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.22ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.15ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.44ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.48ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-0.68ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.48ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.22ฯƒ
24 Apr 20261.07ฯƒ
1 May 20260.69ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.42ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.06ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.39ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.68ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.79ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.50ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-0.35ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.39ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-0.52ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.47ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.39ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.48ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.08ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-0.56ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-1.08ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-0.93ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-0.29ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.49ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.83ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.64ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

BALL 125.54SON 100.85
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 80.0100.0120.0140.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateBALLSON
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202392.6798.11
13 Oct 202388.5597.26
20 Oct 202388.6793.74
27 Oct 202394.5493.16
3 Nov 2023102.89101.40
10 Nov 202398.05100.26
17 Nov 2023105.18102.42
24 Nov 2023109.04103.03
1 Dec 2023113.59103.87
8 Dec 2023115.95101.21
15 Dec 2023117.80102.66
22 Dec 2023115.32104.29
29 Dec 2023115.97103.77
5 Jan 2024115.70107.73
12 Jan 2024113.63105.85
19 Jan 2024111.95106.54
26 Jan 2024115.40108.30
2 Feb 2024119.92105.78
9 Feb 2024119.29105.78
16 Feb 2024125.18103.36
23 Feb 2024126.79106.71
1 Mar 2024130.00106.29
8 Mar 2024132.00107.86
15 Mar 2024129.60106.81
22 Mar 2024133.92105.76
29 Mar 2024136.23108.40
5 Apr 2024134.43107.15
12 Apr 2024132.51105.57
19 Apr 2024131.36107.04
26 Apr 2024141.16105.91
3 May 2024138.72106.45
10 May 2024139.87111.50
17 May 2024141.79113.98
24 May 2024139.30114.60
31 May 2024140.42116.04
7 Jun 2024138.87112.88
14 Jun 2024133.88108.30
21 Jun 2024123.03105.13
28 Jun 2024121.7395.90
5 Jul 2024120.9691.70
12 Jul 2024123.3296.20
19 Jul 2024123.8098.09
26 Jul 2024128.2899.00
2 Aug 2024131.3597.64
9 Aug 2024126.3693.61
16 Aug 2024128.6397.17
23 Aug 2024130.94102.40
30 Aug 2024129.42108.10
6 Sep 2024130.82105.13
13 Sep 2024134.28105.23
20 Sep 2024134.91104.22
27 Sep 2024137.27103.59
4 Oct 2024134.32102.73
11 Oct 2024131.51103.57
18 Oct 2024136.82101.20
25 Oct 2024130.27101.43
1 Nov 2024120.0697.72
8 Nov 2024122.6097.80
15 Nov 2024123.9596.66
22 Nov 2024125.8698.30
29 Nov 2024126.47100.15
6 Dec 2024116.5698.90
13 Dec 2024118.87100.25
20 Dec 2024113.8995.40
27 Dec 2024113.9594.38
3 Jan 2025110.2892.56
10 Jan 2025106.1588.67
17 Jan 2025110.8192.18
24 Jan 2025112.2693.55
31 Jan 2025113.6991.97
7 Feb 2025103.0190.60
14 Feb 2025101.7592.20
21 Feb 2025104.8190.40
28 Feb 2025107.5493.34
7 Mar 2025111.1793.20
14 Mar 2025106.3289.06
21 Mar 2025103.8691.11
28 Mar 2025105.4491.15
4 Apr 202599.5885.45
11 Apr 202598.5384.65
18 Apr 202597.0885.69
25 Apr 2025103.5990.16
2 May 2025105.8487.27
9 May 2025106.8187.56
16 May 2025110.1791.61
23 May 2025106.0590.25
30 May 2025109.7889.95
6 Jun 2025110.5189.10
13 Jun 2025111.8287.70
20 Jun 2025115.6585.03
27 Jun 2025116.0286.55
4 Jul 2025120.7991.87
11 Jul 2025119.9391.39
18 Jul 2025118.9890.60
25 Jul 2025121.3795.46
1 Aug 2025117.5287.38
8 Aug 2025111.1990.78
15 Aug 2025110.7592.42
22 Aug 2025110.5195.02
29 Aug 2025108.2794.42
5 Sep 2025105.1892.36
12 Sep 2025105.7095.50
19 Sep 2025100.5892.54
26 Sep 2025102.1787.74
3 Oct 2025103.7686.56
10 Oct 202597.2379.15
17 Oct 202599.7979.99
24 Oct 2025102.8980.65
31 Oct 202597.0581.07
7 Nov 2025101.1381.29
14 Nov 202598.2882.86
21 Nov 2025102.9783.10
28 Nov 2025102.2785.37
5 Dec 2025101.6583.87
12 Dec 2025105.5585.95
19 Dec 2025107.8787.68
26 Dec 2025109.1888.06
2 Jan 2026110.6189.82
9 Jan 2026115.3195.85
16 Jan 2026116.2798.61
23 Jan 2026118.9298.38
30 Jan 2026117.9097.17
6 Feb 2026137.81103.89
13 Feb 2026139.51104.60
20 Feb 2026137.93114.28
27 Feb 2026139.17115.40
6 Mar 2026130.03109.00
13 Mar 2026129.32108.96
20 Mar 2026118.65103.55
27 Mar 2026123.25108.70
3 Apr 2026124.70112.07
10 Apr 2026129.53115.20
17 Apr 2026134.08117.32
24 Apr 2026127.5199.01
1 May 2026127.53102.30
8 May 2026121.69106.47
15 May 2026114.7996.41
22 May 2026117.51101.95
29 May 2026113.68100.52
5 Jun 2026110.4598.07
12 Jun 2026118.93104.43
19 Jun 2026120.47104.65
26 Jun 2026128.97113.80
3 Jul 2026132.31118.57
10 Jul 2026128.76114.34
17 Jul 2026130.89115.74
24 Jul 2026133.25119.13
31 Jul 2026135.03115.31
7 Aug 2026132.01118.70
14 Aug 2026128.62120.33
21 Aug 2026132.30122.82
28 Aug 2026132.68116.61
4 Sep 2026130.80107.28
11 Sep 2026125.0298.79
18 Sep 2026125.54100.85
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

BALL / SON gap 0.21ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, BALL is extended relative to SON; below zero, BALL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, BALL is extended relative to SON; below zero, BALL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateBALL / SON gap
22 Jan 2026-0.63ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.14ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-0.30ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-0.14ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-0.26ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-0.25ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.16ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-0.31ฯƒ
3 Feb 20261.50ฯƒ
4 Feb 20261.91ฯƒ
5 Feb 20262.63ฯƒ
6 Feb 20262.59ฯƒ
9 Feb 20262.81ฯƒ
10 Feb 20263.04ฯƒ
11 Feb 20262.87ฯƒ
12 Feb 20262.69ฯƒ
13 Feb 20262.79ฯƒ
17 Feb 20261.21ฯƒ
18 Feb 20260.90ฯƒ
19 Feb 20261.19ฯƒ
20 Feb 20261.27ฯƒ
23 Feb 20261.38ฯƒ
24 Feb 20261.11ฯƒ
25 Feb 20261.12ฯƒ
26 Feb 20261.32ฯƒ
27 Feb 20261.35ฯƒ
2 Mar 20261.19ฯƒ
3 Mar 20260.97ฯƒ
4 Mar 20260.95ฯƒ
5 Mar 20260.70ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.54ฯƒ
9 Mar 20260.47ฯƒ
10 Mar 20260.36ฯƒ
11 Mar 20260.19ฯƒ
12 Mar 20260.38ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.42ฯƒ
16 Mar 20260.29ฯƒ
17 Mar 20260.18ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-0.21ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-0.43ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.91ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-0.72ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-0.57ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-0.17ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-0.64ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.69ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-1.19ฯƒ
31 Mar 2026-0.99ฯƒ
1 Apr 2026-0.77ฯƒ
2 Apr 2026-0.84ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-0.77ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-0.92ฯƒ
8 Apr 2026-0.25ฯƒ
9 Apr 2026-0.04ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.33ฯƒ
13 Apr 20260.53ฯƒ
14 Apr 20260.51ฯƒ
15 Apr 20260.15ฯƒ
16 Apr 20260.36ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.23ฯƒ
20 Apr 20260.22ฯƒ
21 Apr 2026-0.03ฯƒ
22 Apr 20262.20ฯƒ
23 Apr 20261.90ฯƒ
24 Apr 20261.43ฯƒ
27 Apr 20260.82ฯƒ
28 Apr 20261.05ฯƒ
29 Apr 20260.83ฯƒ
30 Apr 20260.90ฯƒ
1 May 20260.97ฯƒ
4 May 20260.94ฯƒ
5 May 2026-0.83ฯƒ
6 May 2026-0.56ฯƒ
7 May 2026-0.64ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.70ฯƒ
11 May 2026-0.89ฯƒ
12 May 2026-0.76ฯƒ
13 May 2026-1.06ฯƒ
14 May 2026-0.89ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.69ฯƒ
18 May 2026-0.51ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.63ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.40ฯƒ
21 May 2026-0.79ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.92ฯƒ
26 May 2026-1.00ฯƒ
27 May 2026-1.04ฯƒ
28 May 2026-1.08ฯƒ
29 May 2026-1.51ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-1.64ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-1.96ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-2.18ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-2.04ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-1.84ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-2.01ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-1.98ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-1.49ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-1.23ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.97ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-0.76ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-0.66ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-0.69ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-0.70ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-0.44ฯƒ
23 Jun 20260.38ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-0.17ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-0.23ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.26ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-0.33ฯƒ
30 Jun 2026-0.34ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-0.54ฯƒ
2 Jul 2026-0.23ฯƒ
6 Jul 2026-0.30ฯƒ
7 Jul 2026-0.28ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-0.72ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-0.55ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.50ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-0.07ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-0.28ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-0.29ฯƒ
16 Jul 2026-0.02ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.28ฯƒ
20 Jul 20260.05ฯƒ
21 Jul 20260.13ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-0.06ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-0.40ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.26ฯƒ
27 Jul 2026-0.07ฯƒ
28 Jul 20260.42ฯƒ
29 Jul 20260.42ฯƒ
30 Jul 20260.75ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.72ฯƒ
3 Aug 20260.79ฯƒ
4 Aug 2026-0.26ฯƒ
5 Aug 2026-0.32ฯƒ
6 Aug 2026-0.11ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-0.23ฯƒ
10 Aug 2026-0.65ฯƒ
11 Aug 2026-0.51ฯƒ
12 Aug 2026-0.87ฯƒ
13 Aug 2026-1.00ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-1.04ฯƒ
17 Aug 2026-0.91ฯƒ
18 Aug 2026-0.91ฯƒ
19 Aug 2026-0.72ฯƒ
20 Aug 2026-0.82ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-0.73ฯƒ
24 Aug 20260.06ฯƒ
25 Aug 2026-0.17ฯƒ
26 Aug 2026-0.10ฯƒ
27 Aug 2026-0.14ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.07ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.10ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.37ฯƒ
2 Sep 20260.40ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.80ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.90ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.85ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.98ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.76ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.99ฯƒ
14 Sep 20261.17ฯƒ
15 Sep 20261.30ฯƒ
16 Sep 20261.36ฯƒ
17 Sep 20261.04ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.80ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.51ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.21ฯƒ
23 Sep 2026-0.24ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-0.94ฯƒ
25 Sep 2026-0.89ฯƒ
28 Sep 2026-0.74ฯƒ
29 Sep 2026-0.84ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-0.88ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-0.59ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-0.71ฯƒ
5 Oct 2026-0.25ฯƒ
6 Oct 2026-0.06ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.04ฯƒ
8 Oct 20260.21ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowSONDepressed legBALLExtended legReturn differenceSON less BALL
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-182.1%0.4%1.7 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-17.9%-5.1%-12.8 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-3.6%4.2%-7.8 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in SON / BALL?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

No active pair setup

Keep SON / BALL on routine watch

The two securities are not far enough apart, with enough confirmation, to support a useful convergence case.

01 ยท Relationship77/100

Stability 72/100 ยท break risk 22/100

02 ยท Separation0.64ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence32/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap narrowing

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Keep the pair on the relationship map and wait for a meaningful, evidence-backed separation.

A future case would need an unusual separation, a dependable relationship and evidence favouring SON over BALL.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

There is no reason to force a long or short leg while the relationship remains near normal.

A favourable relative move means SON rises more than BALL, falls less than BALL, or rises while BALL falls. If BALL outperforms SON, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

There is no current dislocation edge; transaction costs can dominate small spread movements.

There is no active case to invalidate because no relative-value position is currently supported.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long SON / short BALL

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for SON to outperform BALL; SON can rise faster, fall less, or rise while BALL falls. The pair loses ground when BALL outperforms SON.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œNo setup at presentโ€ to confirmed convergence. A new, unusual separation would need to develop while the historical relationship remains dependable.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study SON alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in SON. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and SON-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving SON price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study BALL alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in BALL. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in BALL must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.35ฯƒ from the centre

Example: SON +5%, BALL +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.178, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioSONBALLNew gap
Both rise5%2%0.35ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.17ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.12ฯƒPast centre
The gap works against you-3%3%1.40ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.64ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.178 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • BALL Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • BALL has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.849ร—

A 1% move in SON is associated with approximately 0.849% in BALL in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.51

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability72/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life5.5 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings27

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context80/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 1

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 1 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
100.0%
Median time among resolved cases
2.0 weeks
Largest further extension
0.07ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-28.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-25.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-08-31.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-28.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-21.

Research state changed

Changed from Early repair to Balanced relationship.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-19.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-08-17.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context